The NHL and the Curious Case of Rookie Goalies

[Cournoyer12]

I was going to create a poll listing all potentially available goalies, but then I got this thought of rookie goalies and the playoff. So I went back through every single playoff season since 1986. Roy is credited with revolutionizing the position so it seems fitting to start here. Regardless you could go back further and I'm sure the results would be similar like Dryden in '71.

Anyways, since 1986 36 years, 35 seasons, rookie goalies have played 561 playoff games. 293 wins, 268 loses, a winning percentage of 52.2%.

Over these 35 seasons, a rookie has made it to at least the 3rd round 17 times (48.6%). However, 6 of these 35 years failed to have a rookie record a single decision (0 wins and 0 loses). So, in the 29 years that has a rookie decision, they have gone to the 3rd round 58.6% of the time.

A rookie has been to the finals 8 times over this period (27.6%). They have won the cup 6 times (20.7%), and have won the Conn Smythe 3 times (10.3%).

Now there are a few caveats about these numbers. Matt Murray is included twice. He technically won the cup twice as a rookie. Vasilevskiy went to the finals as a rookie but in a backup role. He played 2 games during that run. These things affect the results, I know that, but the premise of the study I think still remains.

The playoffs is all about catching lightning in a bottle, and it seems like a rookie is the way to go.

The whole point of this is to suggest the idea of running with 2 rookies in net, Woll and Kallgren, or even someone else. It is an absolutely crazy idea, but does anyone think the Leafs wouldn't have made the playoffs this year if they had 2 rookies. They made the playoffs by 21 points. I don't think having 2 rookies makes them drop 21 points. From what I saw from Woll and Kallgren this year, Woll looked like the better player. I think Kallgren is a capable backup, but when Woll played, he looked like he had more in him.

Again I'm not saying the 2 have to be Woll and Kallgren. They could go out and get someone like Mikey DiPietro, maybe the Ducks part with Lukas Dostal, or any other rookie you can think of.

I'm also not saying to ride 2 rookies the entire season. I'd start the year of with 2 rookies, and by the deadline add a veteran as insurance. Maybe Fleury ends up on a shit team again. Maybe by the deadline NJ decides the like Daws and are willing to move Blackwell by then. I don't think they will move him before that.

If anyone wants to fact check this information. Either help prove or disprove any of it feel free. I'm sure I missed some guys. All my number were taken from hockeyreference and eyeballing their ages, then checking to see if they were a rookie or not.

Interesting topic: my slant is rookie goalies are like starting pitchers in MLB. Sometimes it takes a couple of at bats to figure a guy out. I think this also pertains to goaltenders, they have a “Book “ on shooters as well as shooters have a book on them. Seems to just take a little longer for the shooters. Anyone remember Steve Penney, started out like a house afire then got solved.

There's a couple factors at play here:

1. Rookie goalies weaknesses' are unknowns, and the shooters haven't figured them out.

2. Rookie goalies are blissfully naive and fearless and haven't had their confidence shaken yet.


You're absolutely right that Rookie goalies crush the playoffs quite often....and did doesn't even matter if they're actually good goalies or not in the end...many of them quickly turn into pumpkins like Cam Ward and Matt Murray.

Sorry I guess I just copied your take, neglected to read all the threads. My bad brother!

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Interesting topic: my slant is rookie goalies are like starting pitchers in MLB. Sometimes it takes a couple of at bats to figure a guy out. I think this also pertains to goaltenders, they have a “Book “ on shooters as well as shooters have a book on them. Seems to just take a little longer for the shooters. Anyone remember Steve Penney, started out like a house afire then got solved.


Sorry I guess I just copied your take, neglected to read all the threads. My bad brother!

It's a little more complex then that. As shooters figure out goalie weaknesses, the goalies that are able to adapt their game to cover those weakness against the shooters are the ones that become elite. The problem is that it's very rare for teams to allow goalies to go through this process.

Look at where the majority of goalies come from these days. They are coming from Europe, and it's not because they have a better development system. The sole reason is that young goalies are getting valuable experience against the best in the world. I'd much rather take a goalie who is struggling to keep his head above water in the SHL, KHL, over a goalie posting top 15 numbers in the CHL. There is a much greater risk for stagnation from the CHL player as he's not being challenged enough. And even once he ages into the AHL, he's still not going to be challenged to the same level that the other guy in Europe is.

This is why I'm proposing going with rookies. You have a much greater chance at seeing development from the added challenge.

 

[Ciao]

I like the idea of scouting based on skills and not numbers.

I wouldn't know which young goalies are worth a shot, but I'm not at all uncomfortable with the Leafs trying some. I would much prefer that they develop their own talent at the goaltender position.

 

[The Iceman]

My opinion is you need a top 8 goalie in the league to give yourself a chance in the playoffs.

Flukes happen and I think that goalies for the most part are still undervalued both on acquisition cost and cap hit.
Give me a top goalie and you have a chance.

The fact that Belfour and CuJo were the last 2 goalies to win a round for us and were in fact the major reason we won those rounds tells me all I need to know.
8 teams win a round every year so go get me a top 8 goalie.

Connor Hellebuyck would be my target.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

My opinion is you need a top 8 goalie in the league to give yourself a chance in the playoffs.

Flukes happen and I think that goalies for the most part are still undervalued both on acquisition cost and cap hit.
Give me a top goalie and you have a chance.

The fact that Belfour and CuJo were the last 2 goalies to win a round for us and were in fact the major reason we won those rounds tells me all I need to know.
8 teams win a round every year so go get me a top 8 goalie.

Connor Hellebuyck would be my target.

Care to name the top 8 or 10 goalies in the league? You don't have to rank them, just list who they are. I guarantee nobody will agree with your list. And even if there is agreement, none of these goalie are available, not Hellebuyck, none of them.

 

[The Iceman]

Care to name the top 8 or 10 goalies in the league? You don't have to rank them, just list who they are. I guarantee nobody will agree with your list. And even if there is agreement, none of these goalie are available, not Hellebuyck, none of them.

I think within reason most players are available. Hellebuyck being a perfect example of a guy they don't want to trade but would trade for an overpayment.
Just like you have to overpay to get a top centre, winger, or D.
But you have to have one to win in the playoffs unless you get lucky and play a team where their goalie craps the bed like Edmonton did.

Here is a list from a Jonas article today. Give me any except Freddy.
Ilya Sorokin; Igor Shesterkin; Jacob Markstrom; Vasilevskiy; Connor Hellebuyck; Darcy Kuemper; Juuse Saros; Thatcher Demko; Frederik Andersen; Tristan Jarry; Robin Lehner; Oettinger
and Fleury.

 

[fahad203]

I think within reason most players are available. Hellebuyck being a perfect example of a guy they don't want to trade but would trade for an overpayment.
Just like you have to overpay to get a top centre, winger, or D.
But you have to have one to win in the playoffs unless you get lucky and play a team where their goalie craps the bed like Edmonton did.

Here is a list from a Jonas article today. Give me any except Freddy.
Ilya Sorokin; Igor Shesterkin; Jacob Markstrom; Vasilevskiy; Connor Hellebuyck; Darcy Kuemper; Juuse Saros; Thatcher Demko; Frederik Andersen; Tristan Jarry; Robin Lehner; Oettinger
and Fleury.

Goalies are the cornerstone of any NHL team. We talk about being clutch or lack there off. If you look at teams that were always clutch, they always had good goaltending first. If your goalie isn't clutch, neither your team will be

Pat Quinn/Mike Smith back in the day understood this. We had decent goaltending in Potvin. But Leafs wanted legit goaltending. Paid a lot of money for Cujo, and voila, you had a team that was contending and known to be super clutch

Hallebuyck I would pay a lot for. If we have accumlated assets as we say we did, then at some point those assets has to do something for you.

Nonis(?) traded for Luongo and that changed the look of that franchise
Colorado paid hefty for Roy

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think within reason most players are available. Hellebuyck being a perfect example of a guy they don't want to trade but would trade for an overpayment.
Just like you have to overpay to get a top centre, winger, or D.
But you have to have one to win in the playoffs unless you get lucky and play a team where their goalie craps the bed like Edmonton did.

Here is a list from a Jonas article today. Give me any except Freddy.
Ilya Sorokin; Igor Shesterkin; Jacob Markstrom; Vasilevskiy; Connor Hellebuyck; Darcy Kuemper; Juuse Saros; Thatcher Demko; Frederik Andersen; Tristan Jarry; Robin Lehner; Oettinger
and Fleury.

Kuemper would be the logical choice here just because he's a free agent. Who knows what his contract demands are though.

Hallebuyck I would pay a lot for. If we have accumlated assets as we say we did, then at some point those assets has to do something for you.

Nonis(?) traded for Luongo and that changed the look of that franchise
Colorado paid hefty for Roy

LOL, no they didn't.

 

[fahad203]

=

Nonis(?) traded for Luongo and that changed the look of that franchise
Colorado paid hefty for Roy

LOL, no they didn't.

What you talking about?
Kovelenko was a legit goal scorer at the time. Full season he has shown he can get you 25 goals and he was 25 years old

Martin Rucinsky was a great young player 24 year old. He scored 28 goals, 25 goals and 22 goals for the Canadians in subsequent years

Thibuault was an upcoming goalie, who by that age has shown at every level he was going to be a very good goalie

That's 2 mid 20 year olds 25 goal scorers and an upcoming goalie who had franchise potential

That's a hefty price

 

[67leafs]

How often does a legit starter come along as a rookie? Were there any this year?

If we waste a first round pick on a reach for a goalie would that definately be a wasted pick?

Last one I remember is Ken Dryden

 

[Gary Nylund]

What you talking about?
Kovelenko was a legit goal scorer at the time. Full season he has shown he can get you 25 goals and he was 25 years old

Martin Rucinsky was a great young player 24 year old. He scored 28 goals, 25 goals and 22 goals for the Canadians in subsequent years

Thibuault was an upcoming goalie, who by that age has shown at every level he was going to be a very good goalie

That's 2 mid 20 year olds 25 goal scorers and an upcoming goalie who had franchise potential

That's a hefty price

Franchise potential for Thibault would be an "optimistic" POV and the other guys were good, but not great players. It's not nothing, but as a return for one of the greatest goalies of all-time, a living legend in his prime it's not really that much. I don't think anyone at the time saw the trade as anything but a huge win for Colorado.

Last one I remember is Ken Dryden

Roy won the cup (and the Conn Smythe) as a rookie.

 

[fahad203]

Franchise potential for Thibault would be an "optimistic" POV and the other guys were good, but not great players. It's not nothing, but as a return for one of the greatest goalies of all-time, a living legend in his prime it's not really that much. I don't think anyone at the time saw the trade as anything but a huge win for Colorado.


Roy won the cup (and the Conn Smythe) as a rookie.

Hindsight yes. But to say he didnt get you haul is an under statement

Thats 3 players acitvely playing NHL under 25. Habs got a lot. Rucinsky had top wnd potential written aĺl over him. Kovalenko already scored 28 goals.

Roy at the time was 29 and everyone knew he was wanted out

 

[keonsbitterness]

Roy won the cup (and the Conn Smythe) as a rookie.

Dryden won the Conn Smythe before his rookie year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hindsight yes. But to say he didnt get you haul is an under statement

Thats 3 players acitvely playing NHL under 25. Habs got a lot. Rucinsky had top wnd potential written aĺl over him. Kovalenko already scored 28 goals.

Roy at the time was 29 and everyone knew he was wanted out

To say he wanted out is an understatement, the entire hockey world knew that he said he would never play another game for MTL. They were forced to move him fast or let a gross situation drag on which they just could not allow to happen as the tension in MTL (arguably the one city that's more hockey mad than Toronto) would have been absolutely unbearable. And because they had to act fast is why the return was underwhelming.

COL had been awesome for a while and they were just missing a solid #1 goalie, then when one of the greatest goalies in NHL history fell into their lap due to fortuitous (for them) circumstances, the fact that they would win a cup soon was a foregone conclusion. At least that's what me and my friends all said, and that's exactly what happened.

Considering they had to act fast, the return they got was decent, but not overwhelming. They also gave up Keane in the trade which isn't nothing, a gud pro, captain of their team who added veteran leadership to Colorado's cup run.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dryden won the Conn Smythe before his rookie year.

That's tight, I'd forgotten about that, what an amazing goalie he was! It's hard not to be jealous of MTL and their history of finding elite goalies who manage to turn teams that are otherwise mediocre into cup winners. I hate those f***ers.

 

[keonsbitterness]

That's tight, I'd forgotten about that, what an amazing goalie he was! It's hard not to be jealous of MTL and their history of finding elite goalies who manage to turn teams that are otherwise mediocre into cup winners. I hate those f***ers.

They had the best post-expansion management team in the league from 67-79 plus Patrick Roy to steal them two more Cups, and we had Harold Ballard. That's the difference between Leafs and Habs history.

 

[Brown Dog]

What would it cost to acquire Askarov? Or is that a pipe dream?

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

What would it cost to acquire Askarov? Or is that a pipe dream?

If possible more than I'd even want to give up for him, Wallstedt on the other hand, sign me up. I think Askarov is going to have a disappointing career compared to expectations.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I was going to create a poll listing all potentially available goalies, but then I got this thought of rookie goalies and the playoff. So I went back through every single playoff season since 1986. Roy is credited with revolutionizing the position so it seems fitting to start here. Regardless you could go back further and I'm sure the results would be similar like Dryden in '71.

Anyways, since 1986 36 years, 35 seasons, rookie goalies have played 561 playoff games. 293 wins, 268 loses, a winning percentage of 52.2%.

Over these 35 seasons, a rookie has made it to at least the 3rd round 17 times (48.6%). However, 6 of these 35 years failed to have a rookie record a single decision (0 wins and 0 loses). So, in the 29 years that has a rookie decision, they have gone to the 3rd round 58.6% of the time.

A rookie has been to the finals 8 times over this period (27.6%). They have won the cup 6 times (20.7%), and have won the Conn Smythe 3 times (10.3%).

Now there are a few caveats about these numbers. Matt Murray is included twice. He technically won the cup twice as a rookie. Vasilevskiy went to the finals as a rookie but in a backup role. He played 2 games during that run. These things affect the results, I know that, but the premise of the study I think still remains.

The playoffs is all about catching lightning in a bottle, and it seems like a rookie is the way to go.

The whole point of this is to suggest the idea of running with 2 rookies in net, Woll and Kallgren, or even someone else. It is an absolutely crazy idea, but does anyone think the Leafs wouldn't have made the playoffs this year if they had 2 rookies. They made the playoffs by 21 points. I don't think having 2 rookies makes them drop 21 points. From what I saw from Woll and Kallgren this year, Woll looked like the better player. I think Kallgren is a capable backup, but when Woll played, he looked like he had more in him.

Again I'm not saying the 2 have to be Woll and Kallgren. They could go out and get someone like Mikey DiPietro, maybe the Ducks part with Lukas Dostal, or any other rookie you can think of.

I'm also not saying to ride 2 rookies the entire season. I'd start the year of with 2 rookies, and by the deadline add a veteran as insurance. Maybe Fleury ends up on a shit team again. Maybe by the deadline NJ decides the like Daws and are willing to move Blackwell by then. I don't think they will move him before that.

If anyone wants to fact check this information. Either help prove or disprove any of it feel free. I'm sure I missed some guys. All my number were taken from hockeyreference and eyeballing their ages, then checking to see if they were a rookie or not.

Lots of work to do these analysis .. I go by my eye test and past performances .. all you have to do is ask these kids like Matty and Mitch and McJesus who stoned you in championship tournament games as you were growing up .. in fact I'd be willing to wager a bet that Mitch told Hunter to draft Woll .. I saw no other 97/98 tender better than Woll .. Parrsons was not a big game tender .. and I saw Woll beat Hart and Parrsons a couple times .. fans of Leafs still have no idear what we have in Woll yet .. he will show better as bright lights get brighter .. for instance I have seen him give up 5 goals against a weaker team in a tournament and then post a 60 save shutout in final against our Toronto team .. that is what I am talking about .. he has some weaknesses but he is BEST 1on1 straight up with shooter athletic tender we have in our system right now .. it may have been a bad PR move but if he wasn't hurt against Habs last year I would have thrown him into game 6 and i would have thrown him into game 7 this year once Soup lost in game 6

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Care to name the top 8 or 10 goalies in the league? You don't have to rank them, just list who they are. I guarantee nobody will agree with your list. And even if there is agreement, none of these goalie are available, not Hellebuyck, none of them.

Pretty sure Hellebuyck has said he won't stick around if the jets are rebuilding. I think there was already talk that they might be moving Scheifele.

You are correct in saying that the top 8 for everyone will be different and it also changes every year as outside of the top 2 or 3 guys, goalies are usually inconsistent.