The Next 8 - Make or Break Time?

[jacketsgeek]

2 games into the make or break 8 the Jackets are 2-0-0 meaning my as usual lousy prediction (3-4-1) appears to be on its way to being way off base but still possible.

Washington W
Pitt W
Detroit (away)
Washington
Chi
Nashville
Boston
Minnesota

Going back to the beginning of the 6 game winning streak the following are the good:

Bob - the main reason imo the streak is 6
Team aggresiveness - it appears to be coming back
Boone Jenner
Kevin Connauton - 2 very timely goals
the return of Dubi - seems to have upped the energy level

the bad (or at least worrisome)-

5 on 5 offense - still very weak
Where has Joey the point scorer gone? 0 G's, 2 A's last 6 games
Can Bob play the next 53 without a break?
No empty netters
Nothing on the board from the bottom 3

Next 6 games still look tough to me on paper with the exception of Minnesota. I'd take 3-2-1 right now and be happy.

Got the 3 W's

 

[BrianT12]

The CBJ is winning games but not making up much ground due to winning so many 3 pt games.

 

[FreeBoomer61]

The CBJ is winning games but not making up much ground due to winning so many 3 pt games.

With exception to the Capitals game, the rest of the 3 point games were irrelevant. There's no way we catch up to/pass Pittsburgh or Detroit. And Philly is garbage, no way they finish top 3 in the division regardless.

 

[DJA]

The CBJ is winning games but not making up much ground due to winning so many 3 pt games.

6 points in 16 days isn't making up much ground?

 

[EspenK]

It appears that this stretch (expanded to include all of December) is make it time rather than break it time.

Being a pessimist at heart I see 7 out of 8 wins by 1 goal, four of them in shootouts and 2 in OT. And all of them fueled by a super Vezina worthy performance by Bob. Without him the McEichel chatter would be growing by the day.

I am happy for the wins but at the same time wonder if this streak will get us into the playoffs to face the best in the East with a quick exit once again. I know the majority here will say building a winning culture, gaining playoff experience, etc is important. And I agree but a part of me and probably a large part would rather see a top 3 draft pick to go along with a healthy roster in the future rather than the 16th pick and a first round loss.

To me its a very mixed emotion season. I want them to win but on the other hand I really think the long term is better served by adding McEichel or one of the other top five or six guys than the scenario I outlined above.

As a fan I want them to do well and making the playoffs and having Bob go Jonathan Quick-like for a run to the Cup would be great. Maybe if we get healthy by then it is possible that could happen but until we learn to get off to better starts and limit the other teams to a normal level of shots I don't see it happening.

 

[DJA]

It appears that this stretch (expanded to include all of December) is make it time rather than break it time.

Being a pessimist at heart I see 7 out of 8 wins by 1 goal, four of them in shootouts and 2 in OT. And all of them fueled by a super Vezina worthy performance by Bob. Without him the McEichel chatter would be growing by the day.

I am happy for the wins but at the same time wonder if this streak will get us into the playoffs to face the best in the East with a quick exit once again. I know the majority here will say building a winning culture, gaining playoff experience, etc is important. And I agree but a part of me and probably a large part would rather see a top 3 draft pick to go along with a healthy roster in the future rather than the 16th pick and a first round loss.

To me its a very mixed emotion season. I want them to win but on the other hand I really think the long term is better served by adding McEichel or one of the other top five or six guys than the scenario I outlined above.

As a fan I want them to do well and making the playoffs and having Bob go Jonathan Quick-like for a run to the Cup would be great. Maybe if we get healthy by then it is possible that could happen but until we learn to get off to better starts and limit the other teams to a normal level of shots I don't see it happening.

You want your team to win, period.

 

[cbjfaninmo]

You want your team to win, period.

I agree.

 

[Viqsi]

I continue to refuse to be tempted by the possibility of a Savior Prospect. It's never worked for this team. I much prefer how we're building on what we already have - and that we're doing that has, I think, a lot to do with why we get a lot more respect from other hockey fans than most teams on the way up.

While I'd accept a top pick as a Happy Surprise, it should never be the goal. Ever. That crap's for losers, cowards, and the Edmonton Oilers.

 

[SuperGenius]

You want your team to win, period.

I agree.

I agree with them. I really couldn't care one bit about a prospect unless they're in the system. If you have a good organization with good minds, you can find players anywhere in the draft. See: Detroit Red Wings.

I don't buy into any notion of winning = bad, sorry. Winning is great, I enjoy it, the players enjoy it and I want more of it.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I say from now until the ASG break is make or break.

They have the 8-0-1 streak just to get them to the point they were at last season and then had an 8 game winning streak in January to really make a move. They have 13 games until the ASG. I'm going to guess they need 9-10 wins in those 13 to really make a significant move upward.

If I did my math right, the CBJ would be at 45 games on the ASG break. Winning 9 games between now and then would give them 49 points. It seems like the CBJ were at 45 games as of January 12 last year due to the compact schedule and they had 46 points at that time. They were roughly 4 points out of a playoff spot at that time.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

To make the playoffs, the Jackets are going to need to get about 92 points. That requires you finish close to 10 games over .500. With 50 games left, that would be a record of about 28-17-5. Not an easy task but certainly much less daunting than what 92 points required 10 games ago. Whether they get moving above .500 now or later, they cannot afford any run of losses or there will be not enough time to recover.

 

[NotWendell]

The Jackets have no business doing what they're doing with this lineup in tatters. Props to the coaching staff and the players who are still on the ice.

 

[Dednimnepo]

It is solstice and I am in a great state of mind. Leesmith, Viqsi, EspenK etal. Y'all know, we got so many great regulars. Y'all seem to think these hockey issues through breaking it down in a way that helps me understand the hockey issues. Thanks for that. This is what I know:*

1. We have a goalie that will not be satisfied until he is declared the greatest in the world. He wants a cup and will drag as best as he is able whatever group of skaters playing in front of him as far as he can.
2. In late November Jack Johnson replaced his family with the CBJ. Whether it was, a Thanksgiving dinner, a reach out from another player, or something else, he is now playing the best hockey of his career. He has been all month.
3. The team from the AHL to the president have bought into the system. This has eased the call up transitions and influenced trades.
4. The team knows every game in December is a playoff game. If they want to make the playoffs they have to play that way. That alone has won us three of the last 8 games.
5. The impossible odds, the injuries, the lack of a captain, have helped form a team commitment, team first belief that helps the CBJ succeed. They have embraced the Don Quixote spirit. I believe Richards has said and done the right things to stimulate this.
6, Johansen has hit a fitness wall which he will break past after the few days off at the end of this month. I think he'll break it open against Boston.
7. We are better than the sum total of skill of the individuals we ice. That alone is enough to cheer for.

Prediction: If we make the playoffs (which I believe we will) we will play in the finals.


GO JACKETS!



* Know is not the same as facts or opinions, just a perspective on the world filtered through a faulty lens.

 

[BluejacketNut]

The Jackets have no business doing what they're doing with this lineup in tatters. Props to the coaching staff and the players who are still on the ice.

The only reason this streak is happening is because of Bob. The team that showed up Saturday, save Bob, was absolutely terrible. Their passing couldnt even be compared with a good AHL team that night. If Bob's still out, we're talking more about that first couple overall picks.

 

[EspenK]

The only reason this streak is happening is because of Bob. The team that showed up Saturday, save Bob, was absolutely terrible. Their passing couldnt even be compared with a good AHL team that night. If Bob's still out, we're talking more about that first couple overall picks.

This is exactly what has me concerned. When (not if) Bob returns to normal great this team is in trouble if it can't figure out how to stop the other team from outshooting them by a 50% margin or so. If they were clicking on all cylinders and winning by playing what appeared to be a sustainable game I'd be happy and wouldn't be as disappointed that a stretch by Bob possibly deprived the team of a great pick in the draft.

 

[Viqsi]

It is solstice and I am in a great state of mind. Leesmith, Viqsi, EspenK etal. Y'all know, we got so many great regulars. Y'all seem to think these hockey issues through breaking it down in a way that helps me understand the hockey issues. Thanks for that. This is what I know:*

1. We have a goalie that will not be satisfied until he is declared the greatest in the world. He wants a cup and will drag as best as he is able whatever group of skaters playing in front of him as far as he can.
2. In late November Jack Johnson replaced his family with the CBJ. Whether it was, a Thanksgiving dinner, a reach out from another player, or something else, he is now playing the best hockey of his career. He has been all month.
3. The team from the AHL to the president have bought into the system. This has eased the call up transitions and influenced trades.
4. The team knows every game in December is a playoff game. If they want to make the playoffs they have to play that way. That alone has won us three of the last 8 games.
5. The impossible odds, the injuries, the lack of a captain, have helped form a team commitment, team first belief that helps the CBJ succeed. They have embraced the Don Quixote spirit. I believe Richards has said and done the right things to stimulate this.
6, Johansen has hit a fitness wall which he will break past after the few days off at the end of this month. I think he'll break it open against Boston.
7. We are better than the sum total of skill of the individuals we ice. That alone is enough to cheer for.

Prediction: If we make the playoffs (which I believe we will) we will play in the finals.


GO JACKETS!



* Know is not the same as facts or opinions, just a perspective on the world filtered through a faulty lens.

Dunno if we'll go that far (we could also easily wear ourselves out in the process, and we're not the only team that's pressing hard), but for damnsure it won't be for lack of trying at this rate. Which I'm content with.
also, if I've helped in any way, that's awesome and thanks

 

[Nordique]

the OTL to the Caps was a tough loss, besides that, I can't imagine a better month of December.

I was hoping for .500 at the mid point, we are now 1 win away from that mark, with 9 games left until the mid.

 

[Crede777]

This is exactly what has me concerned. When (not if) Bob returns to normal great this team is in trouble if it can't figure out how to stop the other team from outshooting them by a 50% margin or so. If they were clicking on all cylinders and winning by playing what appeared to be a sustainable game I'd be happy and wouldn't be as disappointed that a stretch by Bob possibly deprived the team of a great pick in the draft.

Agreed. This type of play was what preceded the Toronto Maple Leafs collapse last season. They were regularly getting outshot game in and game out, but were finding ways to steal wins. Then the outcomes matched up with the "statistics" and they had a major course correction.

 

[CBJx614]

Agreed. This type of play was what preceded the Toronto Maple Leafs collapse last season. They were regularly getting outshot game in and game out, but were finding ways to steal wins. Then the outcomes matched up with the "statistics" and they had a major course correction.

Luckily our "course correction " should be short lived, as we only need to hang on until Hartnell, Letestu, Anisimov, Jenner and Murray get back. With each player returning hopefully we will see a boost in play.

 

[Samkow]

Agreed. This type of play was what preceded the Toronto Maple Leafs collapse last season. They were regularly getting outshot game in and game out, but were finding ways to steal wins. Then the outcomes matched up with the "statistics" and they had a major course correction.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...tshotByOpponent&viewName=outshootingOutshotby

We're right in line with everybody...If anything's due to correct, it's that .333 point percentage when the team outshoots the opponent.

Toronto comparison doesn't work.

 

[Crede777]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.ht...tshotByOpponent&viewName=outshootingOutshotby

We're right in line with everybody...If anything's due to correct, it's that .333 point percentage when the team outshoots the opponent.

Toronto comparison doesn't work.

No we aren't. We are 27th in terms of shots for per game. That is terrible.

The Leafs comparison is perfect. They won despite getting outshot. We are winning while getting outshot. They eventually collapsed. We will too if we don't even out chances and possession.

 

[Samkow]

No we aren't. We are 27th in terms of shots for per game. That is terrible.

The Leafs comparison is perfect. They won despite getting outshot. We are winning while getting outshot. They eventually collapsed. We will too if we don't even out chances and possession.

You said we were constantly getting outshot and that it we would fall back on average.

As the link I've stated clearly shows, our .500 point percentage in games where we've been outshot is right in the middle of the pack. We're already at average, so terrible comparison.

 

[EspenK]

You said we were constantly getting outshot and that it we would fall back on average.

As the link I've stated clearly shows, our .500 point percentage in games where we've been outshot is right in the middle of the pack. We're already at average, so terrible comparison.

I'm thinking the issue here is the 7 or 8 wins in this streak where we have been outshot consistently and yet still won. Call it a 90% win % during that streak( I'm too lazy to figure out the exact umber). If we had been at .500 evenly dispersed I think your argument would hold more water.

If we continue to get outshot I'm guessing our percentage will fall below .500 unless Bob continues at a .940 save pct.

 

[Crede777]

You said we were constantly getting outshot and that it we would fall back on average.

As the link I've stated clearly shows, our .500 point percentage in games where we've been outshot is right in the middle of the pack. We're already at average, so terrible comparison.

It is a fact that we are currently spitting in the face of the hockey stat gods with that win streak. It is unsustainable as has been Bobrovsky's stats during that time.

All indications are that we should have lost a handful of those games as we were heavily out shot, out chanced, and out possessed.

We need to get better quick or we Will find ourselves at the bottom again.

 

[NotWendell]

Here's the most concerning part - which team is dead last in the NHL for 5v5 goals scored? Yep.