The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Maplebeasts]

I get the feeling we're going to get someone very exciting at 56.

 

[Maplebeasts]

That's what he said? What an idiot.

No. He didn't say that.

 

[ACC1224]

No. He didn't say that.

Who were you quoting then?

 

[Maplebeasts]

He was already one of the largest enigmas of the draft. He played GOJHL last year and played Ettan this year. No real exposure in any kind of scouting circle, but he had major hype.

He DOES have significant talent. It's such a shame that he's played so few games and made such a poor choice in Sweden. He could have been a first rounder amongst a team's top prospects with a nice ELC.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Last years draft was so so stacked that it was pretty clear that making that trade the Leafs would be getting a few VERY good prospects. I had Niemela in the 1st round, and Hirvonen in the mid-30's. The issue with 2019 (and this draft) is that it was not nearly as deep with potential impact NHL'ers and when one like Robertson falls to you, you HAVE to scoop them up.

I believe this year the crop of "potential top-6/top-4 guys" cuts off around 40 so it could be just as likely there's nobody worth picking as it is having a guy like Zellweger there. SeaOfBlue definitely disagrees with me on this draft, we've talked about it a bunch, but unless someone you believe is in that top-group is available there's no reason to not trade down, similar to what the Leafs did in 2019.

Depends on what you classify as top 6/top 4. There is a good crop of defensemen in that 2nd/early 3rd round range, so that definitely goes past 40. The quality top 6 forwards will probably be gone by 50 but there will be a bunch of high end 3rd liners who can still play in a top 6 or be a key 3rd liner until probably the 100 range. I am talking about guys like Winterton, Landry, Boucher, Johnston, Stillman, Helenius, etc.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Who were you quoting then?

No one. I was just speculating on a reason for his decision to renounce.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He DOES have significant talent. It's such a shame that he's played so few games and made such a poor choice in Sweden. He could have been a first rounder amongst a team's top prospects with a nice ELC.

He comes with major decision-making and rawness questions though, and combined with his package, he gives me major J.D. Greenway vibes.

 

[ACC1224]

No one. I was just speculating on a reason for his decision to renounce.

Got it. The quotes threw me off.

 

[Knies iT]

Pinelli at 57 would be great. Certainly not a reach. As I was saying earlier with so few picks in this draft and things being as uncertain as they are we should be choosing guys with the highest upside possible.

Pinelli in the 50s just isn’t happening. There is absolutely nothing in his game that would warrant that kind of drop out of his consensus range.

I’d personally take Pinelli top 25. Super high on him. I think he will be one of the best value picks in the first two rounds.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Pinelli in the 50s just isn’t happening. There is absolutely nothing in his game that would warrant that kind of drop out of his consensus range.

I’d personally take Pinelli top 25. Super high on him. I think he will be one of the best value picks in the first two rounds.

Absolutely. That and a few other comments were in response to an Article from the athletic calling him a reach at 57 for us. Obviously weird seeing he's most commonly ranked in the 20's and had such a promising showing at the U-18's and in a men's league.

 

[Morgs]

Depends on what you classify as top 6/top 4. There is a good crop of defensemen in that 2nd/early 3rd round range, so that definitely goes past 40. The quality top 6 forwards will probably be gone by 50 but there will be a bunch of high end 3rd liners who can still play in a top 6 or be a key 3rd liner until probably the 100 range. I am talking about guys like Winterton, Landry, Boucher, Johnston, Stillman, Helenius, etc.

I think there will be a player I like and believe has top-6/4 upside at our pick, I just don't think there's more than 45 of them in this draft unless they take some big development steps next season.

I'm okay taking those types of guys, but if we are I'd much rather trade down and pick up two of like 30 equal talent guys than one.

 

[GrizzGreen]

Trade down for L'Heureux

 

[Morgs]

Trade down for L'Heureux

Down?! I know L'Heureux has been knocked down lists for his skating but there's no chance he's available at 56, let alone later.

(unless you mean trading down like by #, not by order)

 

[GrizzGreen]

Down?! I know L'Heureux has been knocked down lists for his skating but there's no chance he's available at 56, let alone later.

(unless you mean trading down like by #, not by order)

Sorry, sorry, yeah, trading up. Meant by number... agreed that there's no chance he goes 56 or later. Late first rounder who would really help the Leafs, especially if he develops like Marchant.

 

[Morgs]

Sorry, sorry, yeah, trading up. Meant by number... agreed that there's no chance he goes 56 or later. Late first rounder who would really help the Leafs, especially if he develops like Marchant.

Yeah I love what he brings. If we somehow get into the 1st he'd be close to the top of my list.

 

[supermann_98]

During consensual sex in Sweden he took non-consensual pictures, then spread it around to his teammates and linked the pictures to her social media. It's all over the internet if you want to read more.

That’s like the dirtiest, sleaziest thing a guy could possibly do to a girl. Hope he rots

 

[Morgs]

Here are my final rankings. As always, tiers are pretty close to being "interchangable" players in my eyes, but I do see distinct differences between the potential of players in each tier. HM is ranked solely by NHLe, and each of them would probably be in my 7th tier if I continued ranking past 96. I may have missed a few guys here and there, but I don't believe I'd pick or want anyone that isn't listed below. Maybe I missed someone egregious, who knows?

As for pick 56, If we got anyone between my 1-5 tiers I'd be ecstatic. 6 tier I'd be happy, but I'd rather we trade down to pick up two of them or one of them + a 7th tier. 7th tier guys at 56 would be disappointing, but I'd be happy getting any of them later in the draft.

Tier	Rank	Player Name	D-Age	Height	Weight	POS	League	Team	D0	D-1
1	1	Eklund, William	18.9	5'10"	172	C/W	SHL	Djurgårdens	23.1	8.2
1	2	Guenther, Dylan	18.4	6'2"	171	W	WHL	Edmonton	26.6	13.5
1	3	Beniers, Matthew	18.9	6'0"	175	C	NCAA	Michigan	18.9	9.7
2	4	Hughes, Luke	18.0	6'2"	160	LHD	USHL	USDP	8.1	4.5
2	5	Power, Owen	18.8	6'5"	210	LHD	NCAA	Michigan	11.7	8.6
2	6	Clarke, Brandt	18.6	6'1"	181	RHD	Slovakia	HC Nove Zamky	6.6	8.5
2	7	Johnson, Kent	18.9	6'1"	170	C	NCAA	Michigan	19.7	12.6
2	8	Wallstedt, Jasper	18.8	6'3"	212	G	SHL	Luleå	0.908	0.923
3	9	Sillinger, Cole	18.3	6'0"	187	C	USHL	Sioux Falls	14.4	14.7
3	10	Lucius, Chaz	18.4	6'1"	180	C	USHL	USDP	14.5	6.7
3	11	Stankoven, Logan	18.6	5'8"	170	W	WHL	Kamloops	22.1	10.8
3	12	McTavish, Mason	18.6	6'1"	196	C	Swiss D1	EHC Olten	3.5	9.4
3	13	Zellweger, Olen	18.0	5'9"	165	LHD	WHL	Everett	15.7	2.7
3	14	Cossa, Sebastian	18.8	6'4"	212	G	WHL	Edmonton	0.941	0.921
3	15	Pastujov, Sasha	18.2	6'0"	181	W	USHL	USDP	14.0	8.7
3	16	Coronato, Matthew	18.8	5'10"	181	W	USHL	Chicago	16.1	8.6
3	17	Edvinsson, Simon	18.6	6'4"	187	LHD	SHL	Frolunda	4.0	5.3
3	18	Olausson, Oskar	18.9	6'2"	181	W	SHL	HV71	10.0	5.4
4	19	Ceulemans, Corson	18.4	6'2"	188	RHD	AJHL	Brooks	8.1	4.7
4	20	Lambos, Carson	18.7	6'1"	197	LHD	U20 Sarja	JYP	5.1	7.5
4	21	Bourgault, Xavier	19.0	5'11"	166	C	QMJHL	Shawinigan	18.0	14.7
4	22	Lysell, Fabian	18.7	5'10"	176	W	SHL	Lulea	4.6	3.8
4	23	L'Heureux, Zachary	18.4	5'11"	196	W	QMJHL	Halifax	15.4	12.6
4	24	Svechkov, Fyodor	18.5	6'0"	179	W	VHL	Lada	8.7	3.5
4	25	Othmann, Brennan	18.7	5'11"	166	W	Swiss D1	EHC Olten	1.9	7.6
4	26	Behrens, Sean	18.5	5'9"	174	LHD	USHL	USDP	7.6	6.6
4	27	Chayka, Daniil	18.9	6'2"	173	LHD	KHL	CSKA	9.3	7.7
4	28	Chibrikov, Nikita	18.6	5'10"	165	W	KHL	SKA	6.4	7.0
4	29	Räty, Aatu	18.8	6'1"	171	C	Liiga	Karpat	5.1	9.9
5	30	Bolduc, Zachary	18.6	6'1"	175	C	QMJHL	Rimouski	14.0	12.3
5	31	Martino, Ayrton	19.0	5'10"	170	W	USHL	Omaha	14.3	7.3
5	32	Kisakov, Alexander	18.9	5'10"	141	W	MHL	Dynamo	16.7	7.4
5	33	Samoskevich, Mackie	18.8	5'9"	172	W	USHL	Chicago	9.9	7.0
5	34	Robertsson, Simon	18.6	6'0"	181	W	J20 Nationell	Skelleftea	9.4	5.2
5	35	Dean, Zachary	18.7	5'11"	168	C	QMJHL	Gatineau	11.3	10.5
5	36	Nadeau, Olivier	18.7	6'2"	205	W	QMJHL	Shawinigan	17.3	5.2
5	37	Poltapov, Prokhor	18.6	5'10"	161	W	MHL	Krasnaya	11.9	7.3
5	38	Roy, Joshua	18.1	6'1"	192	C	QMJHL	Sherbrooke	13.0	9.6
5	39	Rosen, Isak	18.5	5'10"	155	W	SHL	Leksands	1.8	6.5
5	40	Johnston, Wyatt	18.4	5'11"	155	C	OHL	Windsor	0.0	7.2
5	41	Boucher, Tyler	18.7	6'1"	201	W	USHL	USDP	9.7	4.4
5	42	Johnson, Brent	18.5	5'11"	165	RHD	USHL	Sioux Falls	6.6	2.3
5	43	Pinelli, Francesco	18.4	6'0"	176	C	AlpsHL	HDD Jesenice	3.9	8.8
5	44	Salminen, Samu	18.4	6'3"	190	W	U20 Sarja	Jokerit	9.2	5.2
6	45	Savage, Red	18.4	5'11"	181	C/W	USHL	USDP	8.8	8.6
6	46	Koivunen, Ville	18.3	5'11"	159	W	U20 Sarja	Karpat	7.7	5.0
6	47	Almquist, Marcus	18.0	5'7"	161	W	J20 Nationell	HV71	8.5	3.0
6	48	Reynolds, Peter	18.7	5'10"	169	C	QMJHL	Saint John	12.2	5.7
6	49	Evans, Ryker	19.8	5'11"	181	LHD	WHL	Regina	15.5	4.8
6	50	Kirsanov, Kirill	19.0	6'1"	198	LHD	KHL	SKA	5.3	4.5
6	51	Tuomaala, Samu	18.7	5'10"	166	W	U20 Sarja	Karpat	6.2	3.4
6	52	Whynot, Cameron	18.4	6'2"	182	LHD	QMJHL	Halifax	8.8	2.1
6	53	Knies, Matthew	18.9	6'2"	205	C	USHL	Tri-City	9.2	9.9
6	54	Huckins, Cole	18.4	6'4"	192	C	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	12.6	7.7
6	55	Blake, Jackson	18.1	5'10"	158	W	USHL	Chicago	6.6	2.5
6	56	Robidas, Justin	18.5	5'7"	172	C	QMJHL	Val-d'Or	13.4	9.8
6	57	Dach, Colton	18.7	6'2"	185	W	WHL	Saskatoon	13.3	6.2
6	58	Strömgren, William	18.3	6'2"	161	W	Allsvenskan	MODO	6.0	4.9
6	59	Nause, Evan	18.7	6'2"	185	LHD	QMJHL	Quebec	9.0	3.7
6	60	Morrow, Scott	18.9	6'2"	192	RHD	USHS-Prep	Shattuck	5.2	4.8
6	61	Broz, Tristan	18.9	6'0"	179	W	USHL	Fargo	9.1	7.1
6	62	Harrison, Brett	18.3	6'1"	172	C	U20 Sarja	KOOVEE	7.7	8.1
6	63	Hreschuk, Aidan	18.6	5'11"	170	LHD	USHL	USDP	7.2	3.7
6	64	Ufko, Ryan	18.4	5'10"	181	RHD	USHL	Chicago	7.1	2.0
6	65	Peart, Jack	18.4	5'11"	186	LHD	USHL	Fargo	6.0	3.9
7	66	Korczak, Ryder	19.0	5'10"	159	C	WHL	Moose Jaw	12.5	14.4
7	67	Duke, Dylan	18.5	5'10"	181	C	USHL	USDP	6.3	7.0
7	68	Wilmer, Jeremy	18.1	5'7"	141	C	USHL	USDP	7.0	5.0
7	69	Hayes, Avery	18.9	5'10"	165	W	Slovakia2	HK Levice	3.9	8.8
7	70	Alarie, Eric	18.6	6'1"	198	W	WHL	Moose Jaw	14.0	4.6
7	71	Bankier, Caedan	18.6	6'0	170	C	WHL	Kamloops	13.9	4.8
7	72	Olsson, Anton	18.6	6'1"	183	LHD	SHL	Malmo	4.1	4.6
7	73	Roulette, Conner	18.4	5'11"	175	W	WHL	Seattle	14.5	9.6
7	74	Kidney, Riley	18.5	5'11"	168	C/W	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	15.0	7.3
7	75	Belliveau, Isaac	18.8	6'0"	172	LHD	QMJHL	Gatineau	6.0	11.1
7	76	Chiasson, Jake	18.3	6'1"	170	W	WHL	Brandon	11.6	3.3
7	77	Tschigerl, Sean	18.4	6'0"	181	W	WHL	Calgary	13.3	3.1
7	78	Kurth, Connor	18.1	5'11"	214	W	USHL	Dubuque	7.6	10.6
7	79	Jordan, Cole	19.0	6'2"	205	RHD	WHL	Moose Jaw	5.8	2.4
7	80	Stillman, Chase	18.5	5'11"	170	W	Denmark U20	Esbjerg	2.6	7.5
7	81	Buium, Shai	18.5	6'3"	209	LHD	USHL	Sioux City	5.0	3.2
7	82	Heimosalmi, Aleksi	18.4	5'11"	170	RHD	U20 Sarja	Assat	3.6	1.6
7	83	Martin, Jake	18.5	6'0"	190	RHD	USHL	USDP	2.9	1.7
7	84	Lockhart, Connor	18.7	5'9"	161	C	OHL	Erie	0.0	6.0
7	85	Kostenko, Dmitri	19.0	6'0"	168	RHD	VHL	Lada	5.5	10.3
7	86	Lukashevich, Vladislav	18.3	6'2"	159	LHD	MHL	Loko	7.4	2.3
7	87	Malatesta, James	18.3	5'11"	172	W	QMJHL	Quebec	9.4	9.9
7	88	Voit, Ty	18.3	5'9"	150	W	OHL	Sarnia	0.0	7.3
7	89	Orr, Robert	18.1	5'11"	176	C	QMJHL	Halifax	10.2	3.0
7	90	Dower Nilsson, Liam	18.4	5'11"	159	C	J20 Nationell	Frolunda	7.5	1.4
7	91	Guevin, Jacob	18.7	5'11"	181	RHD	USHL	Muskegon	8.2	3.7
7	92	Winterton, Ryan	18.0	6'1"	174	W	OHL	Hamilton	0.0	5.5
7	93	Grushnikov, Artyom	18.5	6'2"	176	LHD	OHL	Hamilton	0.0	2.4
7	94	Iorio, Vincent	18.8	6'3"	194	RHD	WHL	Brandon	7.2	4.7
7	95	Petrov, Matvei	18.5	6'1"	163	W	MHL	MHK Krylia	10.1	6.0
7	96	Buruyanov, Nikita	19.0	5'10"	172	W	MHL	Dynamo	10.6	4.9
HM	HM	Melanson, Jacob	18.4	5'11"	201	W	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	13.8	1.0
HM	HM	Wong, Trevor	18.4	5'8"	154	C	WHL	Kelowna	13.3	3.2
HM	HM	Ostapchuk, Zack	18.3	6'3"	187	W	WHL	Vancouver	9.7	2.4
HM	HM	Canonica, Lorenzo	18.0	5'11"	179	C/W	QMJHL	Shawinigan	8.7	4.0
HM	HM	Stringer, Zack	18.4	6'1"	165	W	WHL	Lethbridge	8.1	9.4
HM	HM	Grubbe, Jayden	18.7	6'3"	190	W	WHL	Red Deer	8.0	6.8
HM	HM	Helenius, Samuel	18.8	6'6"	183	C	Liiga	JYP	7.7	2.8
HM	HM	MacDonald, Cameron	18.4	6'2"	185	C	QMJHL	Saint John	7.4	4.4
HM	HM	Myklukha, Oleksii	18.8	5'10"	157	C	QMJHL	Royun-Noranda	7.1	5.0
HM	HM	Klimovich, Danila	18.7	6'2"	202	W	Belarus Vysshaya	Minskie	6.0	0.0
HM	HM	Stjernborg, Victor	18.3	5'11"	194	C	SHL	Vaxjo	5.3	3.5
HM	HM	Gallagher, Ty	18.5	6'0"	190	RHD	USHL	USDP	4.6	3.3
HM	HM	Svozil, Stanislav	18.7	6'0"	172	LHD	CZE	Kometa Brno	3.3	4.0
HM	HM	Sward, Graham	18.0	6'2"	166	LHD	WHL	Spokane	1.2	4.1
HM	HM	Geci, Alex	18.1	6'2"	177	C	OHL	Sarnia	0.0	6.4
HM	HM	Kolosov, Alexei	19,7	6'1"	187	G	KHL	Dinamo Minsk	0.911	0.93
HM	HM	Suchanek, Tomas	18.4	6'1"	159	G	Czech2	HC Frydek	0.908	0.899

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Morgs]

One guy that I'd love to talk about that I haven't seen in the top-100 anywhere is D+1 Ryker Evans. I have him ranked 49th and he was first eligible last year. He absolutely exploded in production this past season to be second in defenseman points in the WHL, only behind Cole Clayton (Undrafted, signed by CBJ), with Braden Schneider (1st round 2020), Alex Cotton (5th round 2020), and Matthew Robertson (2nd round 2019) rounding out the top-5. Besides the production this guy hit the absolute GAS this season on everything. When I was first digging into him earlier this year, it really wasn't a surprise he wasn't drafted last year. He looked like an average WHL defenseman that never amounts to anything. As the WHL season happened.... this dude turned into a 1st round grade in my book. The only reason I don't have him higher is because he's almost 20 years old, 3 months younger than Nick Robertson. Transition play, both offensively and defensively are top notch, no IQ questions, good skater, great passer. Sure he plays with Bedard so the production deserves to be questioned, but he did play 10 games without him and he's 5 points ahead of the next closest player on the team; as a defenseman. He's the guy that if you drafted last year, you wouldn't believe your luck. This year he legitimately might be one of the best defenseman in the draft, and probably should consider yourself lucky if you get him outside the 1st round. I normally wouldn't touch an OA with a 10 foot pole after Hunter, but this guy feels like there is legitimate top-4 upside. I'd be happy taking him at 56, and I'd be absolutely through the moon ecstatic with him if we managed to grab him later.

As I was researching more "background" information for this post, I typed his name into twitter. Here's what Mitch Brown's catch all metric has to say about him:



Here are some videos if you're interested:

 

[Morgs]

So I used this draft simulator two different times (draftsim) with Mackenzie's 2021 rankings to see what could be available come our pick. I only used my draft list for BPA:

The first time I didn't make a trade (my rank in brackets):

56 - Sean Behrens (26)
152 - Marcus Almquist (47)
184 - Caedan Bankier (71)

The second time I made this tradee:
56 (1800 value) to BUF for 87+94+158 (1790 value)

87 - Joshua Roy (38)
94 - Marcus Almquist (47)
152 - Caedan Bankier (71)
158 - Isaac Belliveau (75)
184 - Cole Jordan (79)

Based on the fact that we were able to get Behrens, I would much much prefer the first scenario. The second one he was taken, so I tried to maximize value and still get a guy I felt strongly about at 56 in Roy, while getting two additional picks to grab a guy in Belliveau who had a not good D0 after having a spectacular D-1, and Cole Jordan who analytics people are extremely high on.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Getting back a first round this draft is probably a pipe dream but what about another 2nd ?

 

[hockeywiz542]

Maple Leafs 2021 NHL Entry Draft Preview: Toronto targets Shane Doan’s son? - Sportsnet.ca

Draft Picks:

TOR 2 (57th), TOR 5 (153rd), TOR 6 (185th)

Potential Round 2 targets

Josh Doan, right wing, Chicago Steel: “He’d be a target, for sure,” confirms Sportsnet’s prospect guru Sam Cosentino. The Maple Leafs have poured hours into scouting the USHL’s Steel during their 2021 Clark Cup championship run and have their sights on a few players from a roster that was overseen by current Marlies coach Greg Moore in 2019.

Passed over in 2020, the 19-year-old Doan’s stock has skyrocketed thanks to a growth spurt (6-foot-2, 176 pounds) and stat spurt (31 goals, 70 points in 53 games).

Praised for his work ethic and net-front courage, Shane Doan’s son has already worked out with Auston Matthews in Arizona.

“He’s a really good player. He's still young,” Matthews said.

The catch, Cosentino says, is that Doan could be selected as high as the first round and likely early in the second, begging the question: Could Dubas trade up?

Toronto also has Doan teammates Matthew “Mackie” Samokevich (a patient, playmaking centreman who can skate the wing), Ryan Ufko (a small, puck-moving, right-shot defencman), and Jack Bar (bigger, smooth-skating D-man who can start transition) on its radar.

“[The Leafs] have eyes on him,” Cosentino says of Samokevich, who might not be on the board at 57. “They really love his skill.”

....................................

Organizational Needs

There is no one overwhelming need in a Maple Leafs system that, frankly, could use a boost at all positions.

The organizational emphasis on winning in the Auston Matthews era has seen a steady trickle of prospects (fair thee well, Filip Hallander) and draft picks leak away. As a result, the AHL Marlies have tumbled from champions to a middle-of-the-pack group.

Because of this, there is pressure for some on-the-brink (and cap-friendly) talents like Nick Robertson, Rasmus Sandin, Joey Anderson, Adam Brooks and Timothy Liljegren to establish themselves as NHL fixtures.

Behind them are a handful of intriguing names: Amirov, Topi Niemelä, Roni Hirvonen, Nicholas Abruzzese, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mikhail Abramov, Artur Akhtyamov, et al. But there is a sense that more development is required before any of them make the leap.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Neither Doan or Bar seem like a Dubas pick. I would bet anything Samoskevich is their target from the Steel should he be available.

 

[Morgs]

Neither Doan or Bar seem like a Dubas pick. I would bet anything Samoskevich is their target from the Steel should he be available.

What you don't think they want Coronato?

Jackson Blake is also interesting from the Steel. More of a trade down into the third kind of pick or hope he's available in the 5th, but there's a lot to like there too.

 

[LaPlante94]

Probably could've posted this somewhere else but this is good news. Be easier to watch more prospects we already have or that are available in the upcoming drafts.

 

[Maplebeasts]

What you don't think they want Coronato?

Jackson Blake is also interesting from the Steel. More of a trade down into the third kind of pick or hope he's available in the 5th, but there's a lot to like there too.

Maybe I'm alone but I think Samoskevich turns out the best player from the Steel in this draft. Whenever I watched him I got serious William Nylander vibes.