Speculation: the myth of trading for dmen

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

i keep hearing that you cant add a top dman... that the cost is going to be sky high. i decided to look at the top 60 highest paid dmen from last year and see just how hard it truely is to get one of these guys on your team. first lets look at the top 30 paid guys and see how many were recently moved and what was the cost to the new team to add them...

brent burns and a second was basically traded for charlie coyle and a first
dustin byfulin an crap was traded for a first a second and crap
ryan suter was an ufa
dion phaneuf has been almost given away for free
mark giordano was on the scrap heap
kevin shatttenkirk was an ufa
keith yandle was an ufa
mike green is an ufa
johnny boychuk moved for draft picks
matt nishkanen was an ufa
dougie hamilton moved for picks
andrej sekera was an ufa
jeff petry was moved for picks
justin schultz was on the scrap heap
brooks orpik moved for pics

so... 15 of the top 30 paid dmen were pretty much available to anyone that wanted them at a very affordable price. does this surprise anyone when we hear how difficult it is to get these type of guys? half of them are not home grown. half of them were moved... and not for a very expensive acquistion cost.
now looking at the next 30 highest paid dmen we find nick leddy, jay bouwmeister, zach bogosian, andrew macdonald, mark methot, paul martin, karl alzner, jason garrison, anton stralman, jason demers, and nikita zaitsev also were moved for very little cost
thats 26 of the top 60 paid dmen who were picked up by their current teams without giving up alot to get them

despite what we keep being told, the truth is... if a team is simply willing to pay the high cap hit these dmen demand... its really not that hard to add a dman like the guys ive named here. obviously some of the guys on this list are now on their last legs... but they were still valuable when picked up. its cap hit that makes it difficult to get these guys. most teams dont want to pay dmen this much money. and when these guys are moved its usually because of cap hit

 

[BleedBlue14]

Weren't Buff and Burns wingers at that point in time? Or did they already make the switch over?

Also, alot of the higher caliber guys on that list are offensive minded guys not two way guys.

 

[Gecklund]

Weren't Buff and Burns wingers at that point in time? Or did they already make the switch over?

Also, alot of the higher caliber guys on that list are offensive minded guys not two way guys.

Burns wasn’t but he’s wrong about the trade. It was a first (always valuable), a top prospect (which is what Coyle was) and a promising young winger that just scored 25 goals if I remember correctly (Setoguchi). Also Burns only had one year left.

 

[Jerkob Rantanen]

I see a lot of older guys and a few that needed a change of scenery. Keep in mind, when you trade for a guy, you don't have to compete with the market. For example, if you wanted Justin Faulk, you could make an offer to Carolina. Unless another team made a better offer, he would be yours. If you wait until he hits UFA, then you are running two risks. First, he may have a bounce back season which drives his value sky high. Second, you may get outbid or find out that he doesn't want to play for your team.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Burns wasn’t but he’s wrong about the trade. It was a first (always valuable), a top prospect (which is what Coyle was) and a promising young winger that just scored 25 goals if I remember correctly (Setoguchi). Also Burns only had one year left.

The year left doesn't really matter given that he was an RFA, no?

Still, a late 1st, prospect, and young middle-6 winger is a far cry from the "23 or under 1st line forward ++" packages being demanded for average top-4 defensemen these days.

 

[rent free]

a "top paying dman"doesn't mean a "top dman"

 

[Gecklund]

The year left doesn't really matter given that he was an RFA, no?

Still, a late 1st, prospect, and young middle-6 winger is a far cry from the "23 or under 1st line forward ++" packages being demanded for average top-4 defensemen these days.

It’s a late first, a TOP prospect, and a young top 6 winger (who we valued very highly because he was one of the few ones we had).

Also there’s a difference in trying to acquire someone like Hanifin versus someone like Phaneuf. Phaneuf is barely top four while Hanifin is a top pairing young D. All of those players you listed have problems that forced them to be traded/moved. A lot of the proposals here are for players that aren’t available. Like now if you tried to trade for Burns it would require a lot more than before because he’s on a long term extension AND we need him. Minnesota on the other hand it was the last year of his contract and he didn’t want to sign to sign an extension.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It’s a late first, a TOP prospect, and a young top 6 winger (who we valued very highly because he was one of the few ones we had).

Also there’s a difference in trying to acquire someone like Hanifin versus someone like Phaneuf. Phaneuf is barely top four while Hanifin is a top pairing young D. All of those players you listed have problems that forced them to be traded/moved. A lot of the proposals here are for players that aren’t available. Like now if you tried to trade for Burns it would require a lot more than before because he’s on a long term extension AND we need him. Minnesota on the other hand it was the last year of his contract and he didn’t want to sign to sign an extension.

1) Phaneuf was much more of a top pairing defenseman than Hanifin has been so far at the time of his original trade to the Leafs.

2) I didn't list any players, but the OP does have a point. Every time a defenseman is traded for cheap, people say there's extenuating circumstances that made him cheap and it's unlikely to happen again. But then it does, again and again. Someone's going to move a young-ish top-4 defenseman for cheaper than people expect within the next year or two, it's inevitable.

 

[Walt22]

i keep hearing that you cant add a top dman... that the cost is going to be sky high. i decided to look at the top 60 highest paid dmen from last year and see just how hard it truely is to get one of these guys on your team. first lets look at the top 30 paid guys and see how many were recently moved and what was the cost to the new team to add them...

brent burns and a second was basically traded for charlie coyle and a first
dustin byfulin an crap was traded for a first a second and crap
ryan suter was an ufa
dion phaneuf has been almost given away for free
mark giordano was on the scrap heap
kevin shatttenkirk was an ufa
keith yandle was an ufa
mike green is an ufa
johnny boychuk moved for draft picks
matt nishkanen was an ufa
dougie hamilton moved for picks
andrej sekera was an ufa
jeff petry was moved for picks
justin schultz was on the scrap heap
brooks orpik moved for pics

so... 15 of the top 30 paid dmen were pretty much available to anyone that wanted them at a very affordable price. does this surprise anyone when we hear how difficult it is to get these type of guys? half of them are not home grown. half of them were moved... and not for a very expensive acquistion cost.
now looking at the next 30 highest paid dmen we find nick leddy, jay bouwmeister, zach bogosian, andrew macdonald, mark methot, paul martin, karl alzner, jason garrison, anton stralman, jason demers, and nikita zaitsev also were moved for very little cost
thats 26 of the top 60 paid dmen who were picked up by their current teams without giving up alot to get them

despite what we keep being told, the truth is... if a team is simply willing to pay the high cap hit these dmen demand... its really not that hard to add a dman like the guys ive named here. obviously some of the guys on this list are now on their last legs... but they were still valuable when picked up. its cap hit that makes it difficult to get these guys. most teams dont want to pay dmen this much money. and when these guys are moved its usually because of cap hit

How many of those players were considered top pairing dmen when they were acquired? What they have become since then is a lot different than what they are now.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Burns wasn’t but he’s wrong about the trade. It was a first (always valuable), a top prospect (which is what Coyle was) and a promising young winger that just scored 25 goals if I remember correctly (Setoguchi). Also Burns only had one year left.

Yeah I remember that Coyle was a really good prospect at that point in time. He's still a pretty good player as well. Regardless almost all of those guys had something different about their scenario that either forced a trade or the team was not able to retain the player or did not want to. Vastly different than someone on a message board saying hey trade me Provorov for fair market value, you just don't give up on young top pairing guys unless you are forced to.

 

[Gecklund]

1) Phaneuf was much more of a top pairing defenseman than Hanifin has been so far at the time of his original trade to the Leafs.

2) I didn't list any players, but the OP does have a point. Every time a defenseman is traded for cheap, people say there's extenuating circumstances that made him cheap and it's unlikely to happen again. But then it does, again and again. Someone's going to move a young-ish top-4 defenseman for cheaper than people expect within the next year or two, it's inevitable.

Burns had 1 year left with questionable D
Buff was a cap casualty
Suter was expensive as hell
Phaneuf has a huge contract
Giordano wasn’t a top 4 D let alone top pair
Shattenkirk only wanted to play in one place
Yandle has questionable D to say the least and was coming off a pretty poor year
Green has questionable D
Boychuk Niskanen and Leddy were cap casualties
Hamilton was a result of a new GM trying to make his own mark on the team
Sekera was expensive and barely top 4
Petry played on an awful team and there was no telling how he would do
Schultz and Orpik are laughable examples

 

[lomiller1]

The majority of these were overpaid UFAs. Most of the rest were under-used or under-appreciated D-man that just needed a chance. Yes, you can trade for these or even sign them as cheep UFA’s but the difficulty is finding them. These are not the D-men people ask for when someone proposes a trade on these boards.

The only D-man people wanted but was available for minimal cost was Hamilton and that was largely GM error as it was reported afterwards most GM’s didn’t even know he was available and would have made competing offers of their own if they did.

 

[lomiller1]

Buff was a cap casualty

And had not played D regularly at the time of the trade. For years there was a common (but very very wrong) belief that he was better as a forward.

 

[ManofSteel55]

i keep hearing that you cant add a top dman... that the cost is going to be sky high. i decided to look at the top 60 highest paid dmen from last year and see just how hard it truely is to get one of these guys on your team. first lets look at the top 30 paid guys and see how many were recently moved and what was the cost to the new team to add them...

brent burns and a second was basically traded for charlie coyle and a first
dustin byfulin an crap was traded for a first a second and crap
ryan suter was an ufa
dion phaneuf has been almost given away for free
mark giordano was on the scrap heap
kevin shatttenkirk was an ufa
keith yandle was an ufa
mike green is an ufa
johnny boychuk moved for draft picks
matt nishkanen was an ufa
dougie hamilton moved for picks
andrej sekera was an ufa
jeff petry was moved for picks
justin schultz was on the scrap heap
brooks orpik moved for pics

so... 15 of the top 30 paid dmen were pretty much available to anyone that wanted them at a very affordable price. does this surprise anyone when we hear how difficult it is to get these type of guys? half of them are not home grown. half of them were moved... and not for a very expensive acquistion cost.
now looking at the next 30 highest paid dmen we find nick leddy, jay bouwmeister, zach bogosian, andrew macdonald, mark methot, paul martin, karl alzner, jason garrison, anton stralman, jason demers, and nikita zaitsev also were moved for very little cost
thats 26 of the top 60 paid dmen who were picked up by their current teams without giving up alot to get them

despite what we keep being told, the truth is... if a team is simply willing to pay the high cap hit these dmen demand... its really not that hard to add a dman like the guys ive named here. obviously some of the guys on this list are now on their last legs... but they were still valuable when picked up. its cap hit that makes it difficult to get these guys. most teams dont want to pay dmen this much money. and when these guys are moved its usually because of cap hit

Nobody says you can't add a defenseman. They say its hard to add a top defenseman, and most of these deals prove that. Only a couple (Hamilton, Petry, Schulty, Boychuk) didn't involve an overpay in terms of either salary or assets (or both).

 

[Jumptheshark]

Giodano has only played for the flames--signed in 2004 when all had played is AHL hockey at that point in time

So using him as an example is a bad step

As an oiler fan and talking Petry--every oiler fan was pissed at that deal and that deal one reason oiler fans Hate Mact

and you hurt your case when talking about UFA and what they got because it proves how hard it is to trade for a legit top paring Dman

also Burns and Dustin B were mostly playing FWD when traded

and when you say picks--some people view first round picks as being very valuable

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Not exhaustive, but here’s a list of notable trades involving U30 defensemen this decade:

Player	Team Control	Traded For
McDonagh	~1.25	Quantity
Hamonic	3	Quantity
Sergachev	7(+)	Quality
Subban	6	Quality
Larsson	5	Quality
Jones	~4.5(+)	Quality
Hamilton	4(+)	Quantity
Yandle	~1.5	Quantity
Myers	~4.25	Quality
Leddy	1(+)	Quantity
Bouwmeester	~1.25	Quantity
J. Johnson	~6.25	Quality
Burns	1	Quantity
E. Johnson	~1.5(+)	Quality
Phaneuf I	~4.5	Quantity

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(+) indicates players of RFA age.

The common theme I see is that defenders will generally go for relative quantity when (1) said player is within 18 months of free agency or (2) said player is the casualty of a cap strapped team. There are a couple that deviate from that narrative, namely Hamonic, Hamilton and Phaneuf I. They’re pretty spread out, so I’m not sure you can expect for that type of trade to be available when your team needs it.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Burns had 1 year left with questionable D
Buff was a cap casualty
Suter was expensive as hell
Phaneuf has a huge contract
Giordano wasn’t a top 4 D let alone top pair
Shattenkirk only wanted to play in one place
Yandle has questionable D to say the least and was coming off a pretty poor year
Green has questionable D
Boychuk Niskanen and Leddy were cap casualties
Hamilton was a result of a new GM trying to make his own mark on the team
Sekera was expensive and barely top 4
Petry played on an awful team and there was no telling how he would do
Schultz and Orpik are laughable examples

and you make my point... theres always dmen available but people with your attitude wont get them... instead they will end up on another team

its attitude that stops someone from being able to get get dmen... attitude and the cost of what the cap hit will be. clearly these guys move frequently and if someone wants one they aren't that expensive to get

 

[Gecklund]

and you make my point... theres always dmen available but people with your attitude wont get them... instead they will end up on another team

its attitude that stops someone from being able to get get dmen... attitude and the cost of what the cap hit will be. clearly these guys move frequently and if someone wants one they aren't that expensive to get

You also get people who think Schultz is a top pairing D. Every single one of those D have huge problems attached to them and if they’re your number 1 and you don’t have a good supporting cast you got problems

 

[Fig]

The common theme I see is that defenders will generally go for relative quantity when (1) said player is within 18 months of free agency or (2) said player is the casualty of a cap strapped team. There are a couple that deviate from that narrative, namely Hamonic, Hamilton and Phaneuf I. They’re pretty spread out, so I’m not sure you can expect for that type of trade to be available when your team needs it.

Odd that the main deviations all involve Calgary somehow.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Giodano has only played for the flames--signed in 2004 when all had played is AHL hockey at that point in time

So using him as an example is a bad step

As an oiler fan and talking Petry--every oiler fan was pissed at that deal and that deal one reason oiler fans Hate Mact

and you hurt your case when talking about UFA and what they got because it proves how hard it is to trade for a legit top paring Dman

also Burns and Dustin B were mostly playing FWD when traded

and when you say picks--some people view first round picks as being very valuable

I should label this the myth of acquiring a top dman... honestly that's the point I was making... not trades

trades are hard to make period... trading for a goalie... trading for a rw... trading for a pick... all trades are hard to make. but I don't find evidence to suggest that trading for a dman is more difficult that trading for a lw

Giordano only played for Calgary... and went to Europe. I use him because even Calgary didn't really value him. even they let him walk away. like they did with st louis. another team could have had Giordano the same way they got st louis. of course tampa did get st louis. and giodano stayed

as for petry... I got to admit I don't value him that high. when Edmonton moved him I didn't really care. hes not someone I would want to pay 5 mill for. I put him in the list because I just went by how much they are paid

how much they are paid is a measure of how valued they are by real nhl people. as much as I want to respect the posters here and say they know what they are talking about... I value real nhl execs more. as much as we think our opionions matter... paying someone millions of dollars matters more

every single player on my list was giving 4+ million dollars a year because some nhl gm/front office thought the guy would be a good top 4 dman at the time they were acquired.

some fans will look at a guy like brooks orpik now... and say hes garbage now... but that's completely irrelevant. he isn't being acquired now. I don't expect this type of fan to be capable of looking back at the time the player was acquired.

my example of course is... when a team wants to acquire a dman... most dmen are available at a price that really isn't that horrible to pay

theres a very small list of dmen that were moved at a price that makes us shake our heads.

and then... theres quite a few dmen that have never been moved... but that list is only around 50% of the guys... 50% might stay with their original team... the other 50% get moved

 

[almostawake]

Ranking by salary massively biases the analysis towards UFAs.

The analysis is utterly useless because of it.

 

[CBJx614]

The price for 3rd pairing Jones was a 60pt center.



Jones outscored him this season so I can't even imagine what Jarmo would want for him now.


You want proven top pairing quality, it's gonna hurt.

 

[72hockey guy]

Not exhaustive, but here’s a list of notable trades involving U30 defensemen this decade:

Player	Team Control	Traded For
McDonagh	~1.25	Quantity
Hamonic	3	Quantity
Sergachev	7(+)	Quality
Subban	6	Quality
Larsson	5	Quality
Jones	~4.5(+)	Quality
Hamilton	4(+)	Quantity
Yandle	~1.5	Quantity
Myers	~4.25	Quality
Leddy	1(+)	Quantity
Bouwmeester	~1.25	Quantity
J. Johnson	~6.25	Quality
Burns	1	Quantity
E. Johnson	~1.5(+)	Quality
Phaneuf I	~4.5	Quantity

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(+) indicates players of RFA age.

The common theme I see is that defenders will generally go for relative quantity when (1) said player is within 18 months of free agency or (2) said player is the casualty of a cap strapped team. There are a couple that deviate from that narrative, namely Hamonic, Hamilton and Phaneuf I. They’re pretty spread out, so I’m not sure you can expect for that type of trade to be available when your team needs it.

you were wrong about hamonic, he had extenuating circumstances because of his mothers illness, he requested he be traded closer to home and out of respect for him the Islanders complied.

and still got a lottery 1st and 2 2nds, that certainly was not a quantity trade. they got fair value under duress. and according to credible sources the Isles had turned down Taylor Hall straight up a year earlier, thereby showing how highly the Islanders valued him. and still do

the fact that Garth Snow refers to him as "little brother" demonstrates how much they value him

 

[CraigsList]

Odd that the main deviations all involve Calgary somehow.

We like to be different

 

[ManofSteel55]

and you make my point... theres always dmen available but people with your attitude wont get them... instead they will end up on another team

its attitude that stops someone from being able to get get dmen... attitude and the cost of what the cap hit will be. clearly these guys move frequently and if someone wants one they aren't that expensive to get

Except nearly all of the ones you listed took an overpayment to get, in either cap hit, or assets.