The most In-Depth 2025 NHL Draft Ranking, by Simon St-Laurent (19Simon19)

[19Simon19]

Hi everyone, I'm pleased to announce that my 2025 NHL Draft Ranking is out. 45K words of analysis on my Top 32 prospects for the draft.
Hope you'll enjoy !

NHL Draft Ranking 2025, by Simon St-L.

NHL Draft Ranking 2025, by Simon St-L. - TSLH -

www.toutsurlehockey.com

 

[Jared Grayden]

I know everyone is wrong often in their draft prospect assessments, and it's probably unwise confirmation bias on my part, but you have the most congruent outlook on prospects relative to my own perspective. Very appreciative of your work even if it doesn't get the recognition I think it deserves.

 

[tomd]

Very impressive. Lakovic at 5 is gutsy but I like it a lot.

 

[wickedwitch]

Thanks!

I really appreciate you mentioning what a bad comparison Perry or the Tkachuks are for Martone. I actually like Martone as a prospect, but those comparisons have driven me nuts. And frankly, I don't think they've helped him. It's like they're trying to sell him as a player he isn't and will never be instead of selling him as the (really great IMO) player he actually his.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Good list and job op

 

[ORRFForever]

Hagens at 9. Ouch!

 

[Rasp]

I look forward to this ranking each year. Easily the best one

 

[AnThGrt]

Incredible effort. Good stuff

 

[Hockeyfrilla]

Nice job man

 

[Garl]

The writeups are really impressive. But the rankings themselves are highly questionable, and as you yourself say in your review, you studied this prospects for 2 years, seems like you overscouted them.

Prokhorov at 16 is ahead of Eklund at 18. I mean, their scoring pace is overall similar but Eklund played in a professional mens league, while Prokhorov played in MHL. I do understand that you might like Prokhorov's size and atleticism, but he is a very raw project whos ceiling doesn't look to be anything impressive.
In fact, his stats are slightly worse than stats of Alexei Toropchenko at the same age.

Toropchenko was selected in the 4th round, and that seems to be a correct place for Prokhorov aswell.


Then, you have Limatov, Zharovsky and Hillstrom in the 1st round, while Ihs Wozniak, Gastrin, Boumedienne are out of the first ad Nilson is the lowest european on the list.

This is what I talk about when I mention overscouting. Wozniak, Gastrin and NIlson all had good seasons. Boumedienne struggled early on in NCAA, but had a great 2nd half of the season.

However, as they were around longer they are out of the 1st, while new exciting newcomers like Limatov, Prokhorov, Zharovsky and Hillstrom are in. Despite the fact, that their season were less impressive

 

[Seb]

Thanks Simon for all the effort you put into this, really well done as usual.

 

[Nazzz]

The writeups are really impressive. But the rankings themselves are highly questionable, and as you yourself say in your review, you studied this prospects for 2 years, seems like you overscouted them.

Prokhorov at 16 is ahead of Eklund at 18. I mean, their scoring pace is overall similar but Eklund played in a professional mens league, while Prokhorov played in MHL. I do understand that you might like Prokhorov's size and atleticism, but he is a very raw project whos ceiling doesn't look to be anything impressive.
In fact, his stats are slightly worse than stats of Alexei Toropchenko at the same age.

Toropchenko was selected in the 4th round, and that seems to be a correct place for Prokhorov aswell.


Then, you have Limatov, Zharovsky and Hillstrom in the 1st round, while Ihs Wozniak, Gastrin, Boumedienne are out of the first ad Nilson is the lowest european on the list.

This is what I talk about when I mention overscouting. Wozniak, Gastrin and NIlson all had good seasons. Boumedienne struggled early on in NCAA, but had a great 2nd half of the season.

However, as they were around longer they are out of the 1st, while new exciting newcomers like Limatov, Prokhorov, Zharovsky and Hillstrom are in. Despite the fact, that their season were less impressive

Franchises are betting on potential, not the level of the league in which those kids play.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Franchises are betting on potential, not the level of the league in which those kids play.

Yes but the better the league, the easier it is to project the Player s Performance to the NHL.

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

@19Simon19 where would you rank Andreyanov versus the other top goalie prospects?

Also - I have seen his height vary by source…eliteprospects show him at 6’2, hockey prospect at just 6’0. What do you think his actual height is?


Thanks!

 

[koivalev]

Yes but the better the league, the easier it is to project the Player s Performance to the NHL.

I'd be curious to see a meta-analysis of how NHLe models perform compared to other rankings compared to the actual draft order. I know for example that Vancouver's scouting staff was outperformed over a decade by just sorting first year draft-eligibles by pts/gp and then taking whoever was highest at each draft slot.

 

[19Simon19]

@19Simon19 where would you rank Andreyanov versus the other top goalie prospects?

Also - I have seen his height vary by source…eliteprospects show him at 6’2, hockey prospect at just 6’0. What do you think his actual height is?


Thanks!

I don't scout goaltender so I can't say. Sorry

 

[RationalExpectations]

I'd be curious to see a meta-analysis of how NHLe models perform compared to other rankings compared to the actual draft order. I know for example that Vancouver's scouting staff was outperformed over a decade by just sorting first year draft-eligibles by pts/gp and then taking whoever was highest at each draft slot.

A few years back I did a simple exercise of P/GP draft year vs expected P/GP in year 1-5 post draft in the NHL for forwards only, Controlling for birth month, size… The sheer fact of playing in a pro league was the Single best predictor of NHL success. It comes with biais of course and the analysis could be made over whole careers but I found that interesting

 

[Jared Grayden]

I'd be curious to see a meta-analysis of how NHLe models perform compared to other rankings compared to the actual draft order. I know for example that Vancouver's scouting staff was outperformed over a decade by just sorting first year draft-eligibles by pts/gp and then taking whoever was highest at each draft slot.

IIRC the Maple Leafs SB Nation site Pension Plan Puppets did an analysis back in 2014 by re-drafting all their picks in the cap era with a draft model that simply took the highest NHLe on draft age CHLers. The NHLe model was significantly better outcomes and Toronto had the most expensive scouting department in the league back then (probably still do now).

 

[Bender Duster]

Great analysis! Very informative.

 

[MacAngry 29]

Ohhh damn, its you I was watching this again and notice, I seen that name before

 

[UpsideHockey]

Beauty - love it!

 

[tomd]

@19Simon19 will you be doing a mock draft?

 

[19Simon19]

@19Simon19 will you be doing a mock draft?

I'm not a hugefan of making Mock Draft, but I would guess that Hagens goes much lower than people expect and I think there's decent odds that Spence doesn't go in the First Round.

 

[Garl]

Franchises are betting on potential, not the level of the league in which those kids play.

"Betting on potential" How many players with stat level of Prokhorov in MHL at 18 became impact players in NHL? How many players with stat level of Eklund in Allsvenskan at 18 became impact players in NHL?

At the end of the day, you can make a ranking with your nephew as 1st overall, and kid next door as 2nd overall. But how can you justify it? "Oh, but you don't understand, franchises are betting on "potential"" is rather meaningless frase.

 

[viceroy]

Very impressive. Lakovic at 5 is gutsy but I like it a lot.

He set Lakovic at #5? There's one recurring comment about him that frightens me "He's a big guy that plays like a small guy." I know they're different but that type of comment as a Habs fan reminds me too much of Pierre Dagenais.

*shudder*