I think one of the more interesting potential stories this off-season is where Matt Duchene ends up and one kind of contract he gets. This discussion could all be moot if he takes another sweetheart deal in Dallas, with Nashville still paying him over $6.5 million next year.
But what if he decides to test the market or Dallas says “thanks Matty, but time to move on.”?
We all know that high-end centers are a great position of need and scarcity for a ton of teams around the league. And among the free agents, Duchene’s counting stats production this year, name recognition and perceived “star” value place him probably at the top of a lot of fan wishlists - along with maybe Tavares (ironically those two have been linked their entire careers). Bennett’s a different class for me due to his age. Granlund and Nelson are up there too. But the pickings are slim.
The question for me is that A) Duchene is going to be 35 halfway through the season and B) the discrepancy between his regular season counting stats on a powerhouse Dallas team and his playoff production and usage is extremely concerning. This from a guy who has lacked year to year consistency for basically his entire career.
I think there will be a segment of fans who zero in on “30 goals and 82 points in 82 games” and think they are getting an all-star center. But he was really a secondary and at times even a tertiary threat on a loaded forward group and he shot nearly 20%, over 6 points above his career average. Still, it’s good production for sure. And he’s a real center who is strong on face-offs.
But then the playoffs…oof. 1 goal and 6 points and -16 in 18 games. Now, he was far from the only Stars forward to struggle mightily. But it’s worth a discussion because he is up for a contract and because of his age and because not only he couldn’t get the puck in the net…but his shot generation and usage also fell. I think all those things combine to say “buyer beware.”
But…the market for centers is going to be very fruitful for players this summer in particular. If your team has a giant chasm in the middle, are you ok with paying big bucks for Duchene on a 3-4 year retirement deal in the hopes he can sustain this past regular season?
But what if he decides to test the market or Dallas says “thanks Matty, but time to move on.”?
We all know that high-end centers are a great position of need and scarcity for a ton of teams around the league. And among the free agents, Duchene’s counting stats production this year, name recognition and perceived “star” value place him probably at the top of a lot of fan wishlists - along with maybe Tavares (ironically those two have been linked their entire careers). Bennett’s a different class for me due to his age. Granlund and Nelson are up there too. But the pickings are slim.
The question for me is that A) Duchene is going to be 35 halfway through the season and B) the discrepancy between his regular season counting stats on a powerhouse Dallas team and his playoff production and usage is extremely concerning. This from a guy who has lacked year to year consistency for basically his entire career.
I think there will be a segment of fans who zero in on “30 goals and 82 points in 82 games” and think they are getting an all-star center. But he was really a secondary and at times even a tertiary threat on a loaded forward group and he shot nearly 20%, over 6 points above his career average. Still, it’s good production for sure. And he’s a real center who is strong on face-offs.
But then the playoffs…oof. 1 goal and 6 points and -16 in 18 games. Now, he was far from the only Stars forward to struggle mightily. But it’s worth a discussion because he is up for a contract and because of his age and because not only he couldn’t get the puck in the net…but his shot generation and usage also fell. I think all those things combine to say “buyer beware.”
But…the market for centers is going to be very fruitful for players this summer in particular. If your team has a giant chasm in the middle, are you ok with paying big bucks for Duchene on a 3-4 year retirement deal in the hopes he can sustain this past regular season?
