Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

[VivaLasVegas]

What happens in a year when they need to resign Eichel? If Marner is at $14 million I cannot see Eichel taking less.

Marner will find himself with th contract he wants but not Matthews and Nylander to play with. At that point it will be back to wake the f*** up/too many passenger Marner.

Vegas is going to take care of Eichel as their highest priority this summer. Who knows about Marner, but he'll be after Eichel if at all.

 

[wetcoast]

Finally voted and the more I think about it, I think the ducks would be a good landing spot for him.

Carlsson and Gauthier are poised for a breakout and they have some really good young Dmen and other prospects to build around for the next 10 years.

 

[Gaberd2608]

Vegas is going to take care of Eichel as their highest priority this summer. Who knows about Marner, but he'll be after Eichel if at all.

This is why I don't see how they can make the money work. They already do not have a ton of cap space. We know Marner is looking for a huge payday. By most accounts he is looking for more than what Matthews got. If Toronto could not make things go with a few very high paid players I am not sure I see how Vegas does.

Any team that signs Marner is going to have cap complications since Marner is only about Marner and not about Team.

 

[TS Quint]

This is why I don't see how they can make the money work. They already do not have a ton of cap space. We know Marner is looking for a huge payday. By most accounts he is looking for more than what Matthews got. If Toronto could not make things go with a few very high paid players I am not sure I see how Vegas does.

Any team that signs Marner is going to have cap complications since Marner is only about Marner and not about Team.

He's leaving the Leafs bubble where they outbid themselves to keep the Big Fore together. Any team who gives Marner a Matthews contract is a loser. Any team willing to give more than Rantanen has lost their shit.

 

[Legion34]

No state income tax is an advantage, but not an unfair advantage since (1) the cap was meant to solve the problem of financial budgeting for owners and management, not to establish parity, and (2) the NHL/NHLPA has not deemed it to be an unfair advantage and they -- and not the fans -- are the only two parties who matter on this particular issue.

Also, though recognizing the issue for many years, the largest North American sports organization with by far larger payrolls, being the National Football League, does not provide special rules for state taxes. It's just one of those things that drive some fans nuts that the leagues have utterly no intention of fixing.

1.) not true. The fact that the cap exists and is linked to 50% revenue is for certainty. The fact that all teams have to have the same cap is parity. There is no more certainty by making all 32 teams have equal cap then asking asking all 23 players to take the same salary. The implementation of the cap is about parity.

2.) it’s not clear that NHL/NHLPA have not deemed it an unfair advantage, just that they haven’t voted to fix it yet. There was an article where 3 GMs openly said it was an advantage. Grier openly has advocated looking for a fix. Walsh talked about addressing the “tax issue” and the difficulties he sees in implementing a fix. Sure. Ok it’s tough to plan. But that doesn’t mean it’s not seen as an unfair advantage. In fact Walsh clearly had the opportunity to say it wasn’t

3.) it’s difficult to compare triple hard cap systems and 6 Canadian teams to the NFL.

 

[JKG33]

Tavares first big contract was not the sweetheart deal you present it to be as it was only 6 years and brought him to UFA. That is almost completely irrelevant to what he did when leaving. Tavares lied about possibly staying there and it screwed over the isles value wise as a consequence.

Also irrelevant is if he owed anyone anything. Tavares lied through his teeth. If that’s your kind of person cool, enjoy.

It was still a sweetheart of a cap hit.

Just because you dont like the facts I listed doesnt make them irrelevant.

And if you'd read my post, you'd see where I said I'm not a Tavares fan.

Vegas needs a Marner bump otherwise their window looks like it has closed in a very top heavy big boys west club.

I actually thinks maybe he ends up in California but he is writing his own ticket here.

That Marner bump doesnt do much in the playoffs. And Vegas hasn't had much of a problem making the playoffs.

Matthews started the trend and just bent the leafs hard with Lube the second go around. They just follow what "the leader" is doing there.

Marner outproduced Matthews over 50% of the time. Can't blame Marner.

They're both overpaid and useless

 

[VivaLasVegas]

This is why I don't see how they can make the money work. They already do not have a ton of cap space. We know Marner is looking for a huge payday. By most accounts he is looking for more than what Matthews got. If Toronto could not make things go with a few very high paid players I am not sure I see how Vegas does.

Any team that signs Marner is going to have cap complications since Marner is only about Marner and not about Team.

I don't see it working either, but who knows.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

While I do think Marner and Toronto both need a split, I think there is a chance the new team getting Marner gets a different version.

- He has something to prove. And a reputation to shed.
- A lot less Media pressure.
- Being a new dad will teach him that not everything is about him.

He will get paid no matter where he goes and there will always be pressure associated with the $$, but I think he can thrive if he looks beyond the $$ for his fit.

 

[CBJx614]

While I do think Marner and Toronto both need a split, I think there is a chance the new team getting Marner gets a different version.

- He has something to prove. And a reputation to shed.
- A lot less Media pressure.
- Being a new dad will teach him that not everything is about him.

He will get paid no matter where he goes and there will always be pressure associated with the $$, but I think he can thrive if he looks beyond the $$ for his fit.

Sounds like a perfect fit for Columbus tbh.

Columbus is known as a great city to raise a family amongst players in the NHL, it's part of why Johnny and eventually Monahan came to Columbus. They wanted to raise their children together there and they aren't the only ones. Guys like Nash, Atkinson, Dubinsky, Jack Johnson, Tyutin and others still live or own a home in Columbus.

Columbus is nothing compared to Toronto as far as the media goes.. The fan base is equally as passionate, they are craving a perennial winner to get behind but haven't had but a taste of what that's like.

Which ties to the next point, whoever can help push Columbus past the eternal mediocrity that we've seemingly been in forever will always be remembered in CBJ history. Panarin had a chance but decided to chase the spotlights of NYC. Marner could come to Columbus and not only help Columbus shed their reputation but Marner could shed his own at the same time, all while potentially not even needing to be THE guy.


Having said all of that I don't think he ends up in Columbus, but there's a potential story there if he does as he'd immediately have at least the expectation to live up to Johnny as he'd essentially be filling his shoes.

 

[The Shadow]

While I do think Marner and Toronto both need a split, I think there is a chance the new team getting Marner gets a different version.

- He has something to prove. And a reputation to shed.
- A lot less Media pressure.
- Being a new dad will teach him that not everything is about him.

He will get paid no matter where he goes and there will always be pressure associated with the $$, but I think he can thrive if he looks beyond the $$ for his fit.

I don’t see that happening in terms of succeeding in the playoffs. Regular season sure. I’m sure on his new team he will put up top 5 in NHL points next season. Everyone will say he is better in a different market

Then the playoffs will start and that’s where you really see if he’s changed

He’s a perimeter player and I dont think that will change

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I don’t see that happening in terms of succeeding in the playoffs. Regular season sure. I’m sure on his new team he will put up top 5 in NHL points next season. Everyone will say he is better in a different market

Then the playoffs will start and that’s where you really see if he’s changed

He’s a perimeter player and I dont think that will change

Maybe. And the chances are low that he does change his game dramatically but with the skill he possesses, giving him complimentary linemates who can do the dirty work, can help improve those numbers. Him playing on a line centered by Bennett type center could be something that could work.

I don't expect him to be a physical player engaging in board battles any time but if he can adjust to taking a little more physical pressure and making plays with little space, he can have good success.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Maybe. And the chances are low that he does change his game dramatically but with the skill he possesses, giving him complimentary linemates who can do the dirty work, can help improve those numbers. Him playing on a line centered by Bennett type center could be something that could work.

I don't expect him to be a physical player engaging in board battles any time but if he can adjust to taking a little more physical pressure and making plays with little space, he can have good success.

So all you need to do to get playoff production is put him in the perfectly optimal line with guys who will compensate for his lack of interior play? Kind of sounds to me like a guy a true contender shouldn't be paying 14m AAV to.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I'm guessing San Jose because of Marleau connection.

I just hope anywhere but Toronto. He's gonna ask for the moon + a private jet for him only but he might let Drake hop aboard.

 

[Son of Nogatco]

The Leafs main problem was Tavares’ deal started in 2018-19, Matthews’ and Marner’s deals started in 2019-20, and then COVID did this:

View attachment 1042791

The Leafs understandably assumed they would have a lot more money to work with.

The cap was growing every year plus Seattle was starting up in 2021-22. The cap had a big 4.5m increase in 2018 after Vegas’ 1st season, the addition of Seattle would have had a similar effect.

Lots of teams struggled under the frozen cap but it was particularly rough for the handful of teams that signed their top stars to +10m deals right before COVID.

Only one team signed 4 forwards to an average of 10M each. That particular model was bound to be extremely risky regardless of the flat cap.

I’m not convinced an extra $2M worth of depth players each year was the difference between playoff success and the recurring postseason catastrophe that was the Core 4 Era in Toronto.

Kind of crazy that people are still trotting out this “Covid Cap” apologia to defend MLSE

 

[Son of Nogatco]

I'd be shocked if he lots to stay in the Atlantic division.

He'll sign somewhere in the West. Out of side and mind from the Toronto media as much as possible.

Yeah I’m surprised this isn’t mentioned more. I don’t think he wants any part of the Atlantic, or even a Metro team that potentially runs into Toronto in the playoffs.

If he doesn’t re-sign in Toronto then he’s going out west.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

While I do think Marner and Toronto both need a split, I think there is a chance the new team getting Marner gets a different version.

- He has something to prove. And a reputation to shed.
- A lot less Media pressure.
- Being a new dad will teach him that not everything is about him.

He will get paid no matter where he goes and there will always be pressure associated with the $$, but I think he can thrive if he looks beyond the $$ for his fit.

Unfortunately nothing changes with Marner. Same old same old and what you see for good and bad are what you will get.

 

[Hockey2Hockey]

Is there any chance a cup contending team signs hi for big money?

 

[AcerComputer]

Marner signs in SJ for $14.93m x 3 years.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Marner signs in SJ for $14.93m x 3 years.

Can you imagine?

Insane.

But something like that might actually happen.

I don't hate Marner, I just hate the idea of my favorite team F'n it up all over again.............

Let the guy walk, there goes your perimiter quarterback.........

New style, new system, a whole bunch of cap space.

 

[Casino Royale]

Utah.






(or Toronto)

 

[AcerComputer]

Can you imagine?

Insane.

But something like that might actually happen.

I don't hate Marner, I just hate the idea of my favorite team F'n it up all over again.............

Let the guy walk, there goes your perimiter quarterback.........

New style, new system, a whole bunch of cap space.

We can't pay him a raise on his $11m/yr, so save the cap space to finally build out a team with depth and go after guys like Bennett and Marchand.

 

[Alexei Yashvalev]

I don't think Marner would take less than max term.

 

[mundyc3]

For some reason, I half expect a deal to the Golden Knights of Barbashev for Marner's rights and a second round pick before July 1. Marner signs 12M, 8 years. Vegas deals Hague for a forward in a separate deal.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

Yeah I’m surprised this isn’t mentioned more. I don’t think he wants any part of the Atlantic, or even a Metro team that potentially runs into Toronto in the playoffs.

If he doesn’t re-sign in Toronto then he’s going out west.

I wish it would be here in Vancouver but that's just stepping from one media shit show to a slightly less shit show.

Here's my out there take,
He ends up in Dallas after Vancouver trades Willander, a first (2027) a 2nd and Garland, for Robertson. and the rights to Granland.
Dallas then dumps Seguin and Dumba to Boston along with the first acquired from Vancouver for a 7th round pick. They then use the cap savings to sign Marner to a 7 year 12 million dollar deal

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I don't think Marner would take less than max term.

Someones going to pay him stupid money and he's a really good player but he's a perimiter puck moving winger.

That's not getting it done in the playoffs.

I honestly want the cap space more than I want Marner. Please Tre, don't do it.