Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

[Martin Skoula]

His playoff resume isn't that bad, its the sum of the parts and Leafs that amplifies thing and frankly it's gotten ridiculous.

I wonder if people actually know his stats in the playoffs aside from series losses?

They really aren't that bad but the way people talk about him one would think that he was scoring at a 40 game pace in the playoffs or suddenly wasn't good defensively.

During his career his scoring rate per 82 in the playoffs is 75 points good for 29th overall.

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Keep in mind that’s as the guy getting a touch on every zone entry, every bump back to the point on the PP, every late game offensive zone faceoff, every 6 on 5, etc. I’d say a good third of those points are 0 calorie assists scored 30+ feet from the net and several seconds away from the goal.

 

[Menzinger]

I think there's a lot of legit possibilities for Marner in terms of signing destinations.

-There's the teams in states with no income tax (Florida/Tampa/Vegas/Nashville/Dallas/Seattle).
-The LA area teams, and it's an open secret in Toronto hockey circles that Marner and his wife like the possibility of living there (LA/Anaheim)
-And the 2 American teams in close proximity to Toronto, so he wouldn't be relocating that far (Detroit/Buffalo)

Whichever one of those teams offers him the best contract from his and his agent's POVs will probably get him. Some of the other rumoured teams I think are just noise with no real substance behind it. I also believe the reports that he doesn't want to sign with a Canadian team.

I'd be shocked if he lots to stay in the Atlantic division.

He'll sign somewhere in the West. Out of side and mind from the Toronto media as much as possible.

 

[TS Quint]

The Leafs main problem was Tavares’ deal started in 2018-19, Matthews’ and Marner’s deals started in 2019-20, and then COVID did this:

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The Leafs understandably assumed they would have a lot more money to work with.

The cap was growing every year plus Seattle was starting up in 2021-22. The cap had a big 4.5m increase in 2018 after Vegas’ 1st season, the addition of Seattle would have had a similar effect.

Lots of teams struggled under the frozen cap but it was particularly rough for the handful of teams that signed their top stars to +10m deals right before COVID.

Of all the silly things MLSE has convinced their fan base of. Even worse than how they convince these people of how it’s always the fault of the guy leaving town who is at fault for their choke job. Sorry Mitch it’s just how things work with the Leafs.

They have their Leafs owned media convince the fans every contract the the Big Fore has signed was great and the flat cap only happened to the Leafs. My favorite was dragging Mackenzie out of his cottage to do a special to soften the blow of Money Matthews RFA contract. Poor Bob taking the cash to sully his reputation. They have convinced large swaths of this fan base that the flat cap only happened to the Leafs. I’m actually impressed by this.

Or maybe the Leafs, probably Shannahan, shouldn’t have over paid AND under termed the Big Fore. Every other player other than Werenski in the top 30 paid players at the time took max term.

Nevermind the gross over payment, just by getting 8 years out of the over payment that would have saved the Leafs

$1,609,750 on Matthews for 3 more years
$4,537,634 on Nylander for two more years
And still have Marner for two more years right now

Maybe Big Money Matthews wouldn’t be crying about passengers right now if they had an extra $6,147,384 to spend this year. Add that to the saving on Tavares next year and the Leafs might have been able to take that step.

I can’t believe the Leafs made the biggest, selfish jerk their highest paid player and captain and he still passed the buck to guys who make 30% of what he makes.

Leafs fans need to wake up. The problems with this team aren’t the guys who have left. It’s the players who have stayed.

 

[JKG33]

I used to think Anahein, but their hiring of coach Q indicates theyre now a serious team. A serious team isnt going to be signing Marner.

Chicago was my next guess, but if the reports are true theyre also out.

San Jose.. idk. I think theyre smarter with what theyre trying to build. Same with Utah and Columbus.

I think Buffalo and Vancouver are dumb enough to go hard after him, but I cant see him wanting to stay close to Toronto or even Canada.

Everyone equates Vegas with chasing a big fish, but they go after guys who have playoff success. Marner is not that.

I think its going to come down to:

NY Islanders: Big "desirable" market. They won the lottery which could change what should be a rebuild into a retool. A team with defense and goaltending as good as they have could easily be a playoff team in the terrible east. Marner would be a nice regular season addition to an otherwise meh forward group.

NY Rangers: Always after the big fish and find a way to dump bad contracts. They dont seem to be afraid of overpaying frauds (Panarin) and want to make big changes this summer.

Carolina: Swung and missed with Guentzel and Rantanen. I could see Dundum pushing hard for this one to parade Marner around saying "look guys I finally caught the big fish" just to end up right back where they are now, a team lacking the players needed to take the next step. They already tried to trade for Marner.

Pittsburgh: Dubas already gave Marner one horrible contract, why not do it again. He's proven he can't help himself when overpaid disappointments become available (Tavares, Karlsson). Like the Islanders, I could see Pittsburgh using this as a move to put a bandaid on the team just to get them into the playoffs.

Los Angeles: Normally I dont think Marner would want to go to the much tougher west and play big boy hockey with a much tougher travel schedule. But the idea of LA is often too tough to resist. I could see LA blowing their load here as some kind of pathetic attempt to finally get past the Edmonton boogeyman

 

[Hockey2Hockey]

If he wants 15 million plus, he won't get it from a contender. He will need to "settle" for 12-12.5 million per year.

If he wants the most money possible, he will likely end up in Detroit, Chicago or Utah.

 

[wetcoast]

Keep in mind that’s as the guy getting a touch on every zone entry, every bump back to the point on the PP, every late game offensive zone faceoff, every 6 on 5, etc. I’d say a good third of those points are 0 calorie assists scored 30+ feet from the net and several seconds away from the goal.

Sure one could say that about alot of players and stats in the playoffs, it's the inconsistency that's mind boggling but then again really it's not alot of people allow certain players to live rent free inside their heads it seems.

 

[HockeyVirus]

It was time for change years ago but def time now. Pretty damn obvious he is not doing it in Toronto. Maybe a new place with no pressure he is able to do it.

At this point we know
- Marner will put up 100 points wherever he goes and be a superstar.. He did it here.
- Marner will most likely at the end of the playoffs have reasonable stats on paper
- But when you drill into it, he will basically never produce in the biggest games and most of the points come earlier in the series.

That is what we have come to expect after 10 years of watching him. That is absolutely a massive add to many teams. Especially those whose goal is to make the playoffs.

Toronto has to make changes and his contract is up. Is what it is.

 

[SensFactor]

I see LA, Chicago or Utah in that order

 

[ZYXWVUT]

Could Seattle get in on this? Would be familiarity now with Lambert getting that HC job.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

The real thing no one considers is that Marner is actually 50-70pt player on any other team aside from Toronto, Edmonton, Florida.

I 100% know he will look exactly like Jon Huberdeau did. Still a fine/top end player, but get's those points because of the team he's on. When he doesn't have that same thing, it's back to reality.

If Mitch signs for 13-14X7, it might look worse then Darnell Nurse in a couple years.

Could have John T for the same or more regular season points for 5-6 mil a year and have the same playoff performance of 0. Johnny looks like a steal for 1/3 the money with little commitment.

 

[Jerkob Rantanen]

Owner is cheap as hell and will never sign Marner for what he’s demanding.

Karmanos sold the team a long time ago. Hurricanes are a cap team and have been for a while now under Dundon.

 

[Legion34]

I mean, he'll lose the local endorsements, but I'd imagine that he'll take his national/international endorsements with him until the contracts expire, unless the contracts have a backdoor to be terminated if he relocated...

Regardless, there's several places he could go that not only don't tax as absurdly as Canada, but also don't carry the cost of living Toronto does.

What cost of living. He owns a house. He’s not selling. He lives here. What is his big expense?

 

[Fatass]

What cost of living. He owns a house. He’s not selling. He lives here. What is his big expense?

Marner is heading to Vegas. Big money contract and likely gets a Cup. Leafs would be smart to work a deal with Vegas to at least get something for him.

 

[Legion34]

Marner is heading to Vegas. Big money contract and likely gets a Cup. Leafs would be smart to work a deal with Vegas to at least get something for him.

This I do agree with I go back and forth. It seems like if he goes that’s the logical fit.

It just seems for him it’s emotion. When he sits down. Toronto is the best spot for him (whether or not I agree) as long as he gets enough to take care of the tax issue.

1.) 8 years.
2.) likes his team
3.) perennial playoffs
4.) extended family for his newborn
5.) plays with a 60’goal scorer
6.) endorsements
7.) singing bonuses.
8.) be the all time leafs scorer.

I don’t see how at the end of the day he walks from that. As mad as he is now.
He soon could also sign here then leave when he gets the record. I don’t think Matthews stays.

Tre needs an answer. If he says he’s not signing then let him work out a deal for the 8th year and get something. Probably from Vegas. I agree

 

[Fatass]

This I do agree with I go back and forth. It seems like if he goes that’s the logical fit.

It just seems for him it’s emotion. When he sits down. Toronto is the best spot for him (whether or not I agree) as long as he gets enough to take care of the tax issue.

1.) 8 years.
2.) likes his team
3.) perennial playoffs
4.) extended family for his newborn
5.) plays with a 60’goal scorer
6.) endorsements
7.) singing bonuses.
8.) be the all time leafs scorer.

I don’t see how at the end of the day he walks from that. As mad as he is now.
He soon could also sign here then leave when he gets the record. I don’t think Matthews stays.

Tre needs an answer. If he says he’s not signing then let him work out a deal for the 8th year and get something. Probably from Vegas. I agree

MM isn’t going to Vegas for any tax reasons. He’s going there because that club has players with winner’s dna and he can live in anonymity. 14 mil x 7 and no taking his job home. I’m thinking there’s no taxes in his decision. It’s about what Matt Tkatchuk said. No “Pressure” away from the rink. Sadly the Leafs are big losers here. But taxes has nothing to do with it

 

[centipede2233]

Tre tried to trade him twice, he preached changing the DNA, conclusion, he gone!

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Marner is heading to Vegas. Big money contract and likely gets a Cup. Leafs would be smart to work a deal with Vegas to at least get something for him.

There were negotiations last summer, but reportedly the Leafs wanted too much, see

https://athlonsports.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/elliotte-friedman-reveals-why-maple-leafs-mitch-marner-trade-to-vegas-never-happened

Now, with Marner going UFA on July 1 -- literally just 30 days away -- why would Vegas (or anybody else) pay Toronto anything for him?

 

[Legion34]

MM isn’t going to Vegas for any tax reasons. He’s going there because that club has players with winner’s dna and he can live in anonymity. 14 mil x 7 and no taking his job home. I’m thinking there’s no taxes in his decision. It’s about what Matt Tkatchuk said. No “Pressure” away from the rink. Sadly the Leafs are big losers here. But taxes has nothing to do with it

Darren Dreger specifically said Marner is eyeing no state tax Markets.

your refusal to believe that no state tax markets have an advantage doesn’t mark that true.

 

[TootooTrain]

There were negotiations last summer, but reportedly the Leafs wanted too much, see

https://athlonsports.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/elliotte-friedman-reveals-why-maple-leafs-mitch-marner-trade-to-vegas-never-happened

Now, with Marner going UFA on July 1 -- literally just 30 days away -- why would Vegas (or anybody else) pay Toronto anything for him?

To get infront of the line for negotiations. Wouldn't be much, maybe a 3rd or 2nd if they're lucky. But it is a possibility.

 

[Beninnola]

highest probability to low, in pyramid form


Clear most likely:
Vegas

Checks a lot of boxes:
Seattle, LaK

You can make a case for it I guess:
St. Louis, Utah, Anahiem, Lightning, Panthers, Predators

Just to get the clicks
Canada markets, Chicago

Everybody else:

I don’t see it.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Darren Dreger specifically said Marner is eyeing no state tax Markets.

your refusal to believe that no state tax markets have an advantage doesn’t mark that true.

No state income tax is an advantage, but not an unfair advantage since (1) the cap was meant to solve the problem of financial budgeting for owners and management, not to establish parity, and (2) the NHL/NHLPA has not deemed it to be an unfair advantage and they -- and not the fans -- are the only two parties who matter on this particular issue.

Also, though recognizing the issue for many years, the largest North American sports organization with by far larger payrolls, being the National Football League, does not provide special rules for state taxes. It's just one of those things that drive some fans nuts that the leagues have utterly no intention of fixing.

 

[Fatass]

Darren Dreger specifically said Marner is eyeing no state tax Markets.

your refusal to believe that no state tax markets have an advantage doesn’t mark that true.

Believe what you prefer. Believe Dregger, who many believe is used by the Leafs to spread MLSE views to manipulate Leaf fans and control the narrative.
Imo Marner’s leaving TO has nothing to do with taxes.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Believe Dregger, who many believe is used by the Leafs to spread MLSE views to manipulate Leaf fans and control the narrative.

Those many would be idiots then. During the last Marner negotiation he was basically running PR for Darren Ferris and the Marner camp. To the point where every time he sent a tweet most of the replies were about how Marners dad was his source for every piece of info.

 

[Fatass]

Those many would be idiots then. During the last Marner negotiation he was basically running PR for Darren Ferris and the Marner camp. To the point where every time he sent a tweet most of the replies were about how Marners dad was his source for every piece of info.

Sure. Dregger makes his coin playing both sides. Good for him.

 

[JKG33]

MM isn’t going to Vegas for any tax reasons. He’s going there because that club has players with winner’s dna and he can live in anonymity. 14 mil x 7 and no taking his job home. I’m thinking there’s no taxes in his decision. It’s about what Matt Tkatchuk said. No “Pressure” away from the rink. Sadly the Leafs are big losers here. But taxes has nothing to do with it

Which is exactly why Vegas wouldnt wanna blow their cap on Mitchy poo