Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

[FriendlyGhost92]

he has to way competition. New family. Media/pressure. Endorsements. Signing bonuses. All time standing in leafs history.

Whether or not the fans want.
Toronto is on record saying they want to sign him.

He would get 13x8=104 million. About 95 million would be SB and he would get
Like 20 million a year in the first 4 years. That is huge.
Plus endorsements here he won’t get in small markets.

Looking at the final 8.

Carolina could sign him. But would they give the bonuses? Do they?

Vegas could make room and no tax.

The rest couldn’t take him on. He’s not going to Winnipeg and Edmonton. Dallas is out. Washington is done in 2 years.

Would he go to a rebuild?
Seattle?

Go out west when he just had a kid?

I mean, he'll lose the local endorsements, but I'd imagine that he'll take his national/international endorsements with him until the contracts expire, unless the contracts have a backdoor to be terminated if he relocated...

Regardless, there's several places he could go that not only don't tax as absurdly as Canada, but also don't carry the cost of living Toronto does.

 

[Legion34]

Didn’t Treliving ask Marner to waive his NMC at the last TDL? Marner will go to the club of his choice on July 1. And that’s not going to be the Leafs. Maybe he heads to Detroit? Very close to home and a young upcoming.

Tre asked if he wanted to leave if as they hadn’t had negotiations. He said they want to keep him. If he wants to leave let us know and we will move you

No one knows what Mitch wants. He isn’t saying. There is a very reasonable chance he leaves. But again.

Where is he going that is going to
1.) give more money When you talk about signing bonuses, 8th year, endorsements
2.) has a chance to compete
3.) has a C he can play with. Who is he playing with in Carolina?
4.) will he give up on being the leafs all time leading scorer? He is 5th and 200 pts from Sundin.
5,) will he want to go west with a young kid?

It’s so odd to me he refuses to negotiate and waive and he will just leave but very possible.

I don’t see Detroit as on the rise? They haven’t made the Playoffs in like 10 years and their D and G look atrocious.

He is going back to Mrazek?

 

[Masked]

I would not mind Phil Kess... Marner in Edmonton.

No idea how we'd make the cap work, but supposedly we almost acquired Rantanen, so...

The first season will be tough but the years after will be much easier with McDavid signing in Toronto next summer.

 

[Legion34]

I mean, he'll lose the local endorsements, but I'd imagine that he'll take his national/international endorsements with him until the contracts expire, unless the contracts have a backdoor to be terminated if he relocated...

Regardless, there's several places he could go that not only don't tax as absurdly as Canada, but also don't carry the cost of living Toronto does.

1.) most endorsements are short term and can be done at any time. He isn’t carrying big endorsements to Seattle for 8 years. He is only 28.
2.) if he keeps a house here, he would just have to pay for 2 houses. He already owns a house here. That doesn’t change.
3.) tax is a massive issue. Agreed. But if he went to LA/anaheim it’s still high.

I’m curious what he does. It wouldn’t surprise me if the leafs didn’t let him see what was out there money wise and fit wise first and see
If they could circle back or do his rights for the 8th year.

 

[Fatass]

Tre asked if he wanted to leave if as they hadn’t had negotiations. He said they want to keep him. If he wants to leave let us know and we will move you

No one knows what Mitch wants. He isn’t saying. There is a very reasonable chance he leaves. But again.

Where is he going that is going to
1.) give more money When you talk about signing bonuses, 8th year, endorsements
2.) has a chance to compete
3.) has a C he can play with. Who is he playing with in Carolina?
4.) will he give up on being the leafs all time leading scorer? He is 5th and 200 pts from Sundin.
5,) will he want to go west with a young kid?

It’s so odd to me he refuses to negotiate and waive and he will just leave but very possible.

I don’t see Detroit as on the rise? They haven’t made the Playoffs in like 10 years and their D and G look atrocious.

He is going back to Mrazek?

Put Marner into the Detroit lineup and they’re absolutely a playoff team. Utah is close and on the rise too.
IMO Marner earned the right to see what’s out there on July 1. I think he’s getting 15x7.

 

[boredmale]

As an Islanders fan I would offer Colorado's 2026 first for a signed Mitch Marner at the draft

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

1.) most endorsements are short term and can be done at any time. He isn’t carrying big endorsements to Seattle for 8 years. He is only 28.
2.) if he keeps a house here, he would just have to pay for 2 houses. He already owns a house here. That doesn’t change.
3.) tax is a massive issue. Agreed. But if he went to LA/anaheim it’s still high.

I’m curious what he does. It wouldn’t surprise me if the leafs didn’t let him see what was out there money wise and fit wise first and see
If they could circle back or do his rights for the 8th year.

Fair point on the endorsements, but my guess would be the extra money he could get outside of Toronto, plus the decrease in taxes (Not Cali teams) would negate endorsement revenue entirely.

If he sells the house, he can likely get the same amount much cheaper in most other markets that again aren't Cali.

Just going off PuckPedia's Calculator: (I dunno the accuracy but it's the only real simple tool I have)

$13M/year in Toronto is $6.08M after taxes.

$14M/year in the following locations after taxes:

San Jose - $7.02M
Anaheim - $7.02M
Detroit - $7.93M
Columbus - $8.02M
Chicago - $8.17M
Carolina - $8.2M
Utah - $8.23M
Nashville - $8.86M

Hard to compete with.

 

[Legion34]

Put Marner into the Detroit lineup and they’re absolutely a playoff team. Utah is close and on the rise too.
IMO Marner earned the right to see what’s out there on July 1. I think he’s getting 15x7.

who is he playing. With ? Jt copmher? Adam copp?

They have 5 nhl goalies. Who is playing? 38 year old Talbot? Mrazek?

They would lose Kane.

30 pts of Marner to Kane. Isn’t enough to get them in the Playoffs. They are behind Montreal and Ottawa and Boston and NYR missed.

 

[Fatass]

who is he playing. With ? Jt copmher? Adam copp?

They have 5 nhl goalies. Who is playing? 38 year old Talbot? Mrazek?

They would lose Kane.

30 pts of Marner to Kane. Isn’t enough to get them in the Playoffs. They are behind Montreal and Ottawa and Boston and NYR missed.

Maybe Marner ends up in Vegas? The point is he’s going to find out which teams are bidding for him July 1. It might be Detroit. It might be Utah. It’s going to be for sure several teams. And with a rising cap 15x7 is certainly within the realm of probability.

 

[Legion34]

Fair point on the endorsements, but my guess would be the extra money he could get outside of Toronto, plus the decrease in taxes (Not Cali teams) would negate endorsement revenue entirely.

If he sells the house, he can likely get the same amount much cheaper in most other markets that again aren't Cali.

Just going off PuckPedia's Calculator: (I dunno the accuracy but it's the only real simple tool I have)

$13M/year in Toronto is $6.08M after taxes.

$14M/year in the following locations after taxes:

San Jose - $7.02M
Anaheim - $7.02M
Detroit - $7.93M
Columbus - $8.02M
Chicago - $8.17M
Carolina - $8.2M
Utah - $8.23M
Nashville - $8.86M

Hard to compete with.

His family lives in Toronto. He spends his offseason here. Why would he sell his house in a down market? He is here from April to September.

I’m not saying he’s not leaving. He is definitely considering it. I wonder where.

Look at that list. Most of those teams aren’t playoff teams and may not be for a while. Marner is the poster boy for a new rebuild not working out.

Who would he play with In Carolina. Nashville. Utah. Detroit? Who are their centers?
Chicago has Bérard. Ok but they are garbage.

Columbus never gets players. Its going to be interesting

 

[Fatass]

Fair point on the endorsements, but my guess would be the extra money he could get outside of Toronto, plus the decrease in taxes (Not Cali teams) would negate endorsement revenue entirely.

If he sells the house, he can likely get the same amount much cheaper in most other markets that again aren't Cali.

Just going off PuckPedia's Calculator: (I dunno the accuracy but it's the only real simple tool I have)

$13M/year in Toronto is $6.08M after taxes.

$14M/year in the following locations after taxes:

San Jose - $7.02M
Anaheim - $7.02M
Detroit - $7.93M
Columbus - $8.02M
Chicago - $8.17M
Carolina - $8.2M
Utah - $8.23M
Nashville - $8.86M

Hard to compete with.

These guys have smart accountants and certainly don’t pay taxes at the posted rates.

 

[BrokenFace]

so uhhh you call Blackhawks a tire fire I assume from the scandal that literally was a decade ago and now have new owners, GM, coaching staff and all former players gone..yet you then name the very definition of a tire fire in Utah

Chicago finished with 28 fewer points in the standings than Utah this year

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

His family lives in Toronto. He spends his offseason here. Why would he sell his house in a down market? He is here from April to September.

I’m not saying he’s not leaving. He is definitely considering it. I wonder where.

Look at that list. Most of those teams aren’t playoff teams and may not be for a while. Marner is the poster boy for a new rebuild not working out.

Who would he play with In Carolina. Nashville. Utah. Detroit? Who are their centers?
Chicago has Bérard. Ok but they are garbage.

Columbus never gets players. Its going to be interesting

1. He'd probably find he doesn't need as much house if he's only living there four months out of the year. Realistically, he's there for more like May/June to August.

2. "Most of those teams aren't in the playoffs and won't be for awhile." Umm... Not really? Chicago? Maybe. Nashville? Probably. Utah, San Jose, and Anaheim are all on their way up and Columbus and Detroit are likely playoff teams next year with Marner added.

3. Who would he play with in Carolina? Aho. Detroit? Larkin. Utah? Cooley. Are they Auston Matthews? No. But if Auston Matthews in the playoffs was Auston Matthews in the regular season, we wouldn't be talking about this at all.

4. Umm... Columbus did get a player. He died. That's kinda the whole reason they're in this conversation.

 

[tomd]

These guys have smart accountants and certainly don’t pay taxes at the posted rates.

Some types of income can be minimized but w-2 income is pretty hard (if not impossible) to work around no matter how smart your accountant is.

 

[bucks_oil]

Pasta is not soft

I know... I live in Boston. My point was not "Pasta is soft" but rather, how are they any different than each other? Both have similar hits/60, blocks/60, Marner a more positive (less negative, I suppose) Giveway/Takeaway ratio. Neither of them shy away from contact or the corners.

For skilled guys, who aren't afraid to get dirty, they aren't that dissimilar... the idea that Marner wouldn't fit into Boston's "school of hard knocks" hockey culture is sorta silly. I think he would thrive here.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

so uhhh you call Blackhawks a tire fire I assume from the scandal that literally was a decade ago and now have new owners, GM, coaching staff and all former players gone..yet you then name the very definition of a tire fire in Utah

I dunno... I thought he was calling them a tire fire because they sold off their entire team to build around one guy that has been in the league for two years and still tries to play like he's dancing around kids in junior hockey.

 

[Fatass]

Some types of income can be minimized but w-2 income is pretty hard (if not impossible) to work around no matter how smart your accountant is.

Guys play south of the border so they can live in anonymity or for warmer winters. Taxes would be down the list. Listen to the comments coming from Panther players this series about the toxic pressure on the Leafs top guys in TO. Those guys leave their jobs at the rink. That’s not an option in a Canadian city, especially TO.,

 

[Legion34]

1. He'd probably find he doesn't need as much house if he's only living there four months out of the year. Realistically, he's there for more like May/June to August.

2. "Most of those teams aren't in the playoffs and won't be for awhile." Umm... Not really? Chicago? Maybe. Nashville? Probably. Utah, San Jose, and Anaheim are all on their way up and Columbus and Detroit are likely playoff teams next year with Marner added.

3. Who would he play with in Carolina? Aho. Detroit? Larkin. Utah? Cooley. Are they Auston Matthews? No. But if Auston Matthews in the playoffs was Auston Matthews in the regular season, we wouldn't be talking about this at all.

4. Umm... Columbus did get a player. He died. That's kinda the whole reason they're in this conversation.

None of those teams have star centers. They are second tier. If you play Marner with aho then who does Jarvis etc play with? Is Raymond going to want to take a step down.

Marner wanted to play with Matthews all the time. He’s going to want to bet on fantilli? Maybe I guess

Columbus got a player who came to them when the market dried up. He thought he was going to Philly then they spent their money.

You can watch the video. CBJ was going to do their press conference then got a last minute call.

None of those teams are realistic contenders. They may have outside shot at playoffs. But only one or 2 really.

Who are any of those teams knocking out realistically?

Detroit and CBJ are unlikely to beat revamped Boston and NYR. Never mind Ottawa and Montreal.

Who is coming out of the west?
St. Louis maybe?

Voluntarily Going from a consistent playoff team to a wildcard battle isn’t something a lot of star players do. It’s possible but not the most likely. Toronto is going to offer 13*8 minimum. A team may offer 15*7.

It’s very possible he goes to see what’s out there snd finds it’s not what he was expecting.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

His family lives in Toronto. He spends his offseason here. Why would he sell his house in a down market? He is here from April to September.

I’m not saying he’s not leaving. He is definitely considering it. I wonder where.

Look at that list. Most of those teams aren’t playoff teams and may not be for a while. Marner is the poster boy for a new rebuild not working out.

Who would he play with In Carolina. Nashville. Utah. Detroit? Who are their centers?
Chicago has Bérard. Ok but they are garbage.

Columbus never gets players. Its going to be interesting

In terms of Carolina, he would be on the top line with Aho playing the same role Guentzel did while he was here, with the other winger being Svechnikov.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Whether or not the fans want.
Toronto is on record saying they want to sign him.

This is a lie. And the latest reports from Mirtle had both sides wanting to move on.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

None of those teams have star centers. They are second tier. If you play Marner with aho then who does Jarvis etc play with? Is Raymond going to want to take a step down.

Marner wanted to play with Matthews all the time. He’s going to want to bet on fantilli? Maybe I guess

Columbus got a player who came to them when the market dried up. He thought he was going to Philly then they spent their money.

You can watch the video. CBJ was going to do their press conference then got a last minute call.

None of those teams are realistic contenders. They may have outside shot at playoffs. But only one or 2 really.

Who are any of those teams knocking out realistically?

Detroit and CBJ are unlikely to beat revamped Boston and NYR. Never mind Ottawa and Montreal.

Who is coming out of the west?
St. Louis maybe?

Voluntarily Going from a consistent playoff team to a wildcard battle isn’t something a lot of star players do. It’s possible but not the most likely. Toronto is going to offer 13*8 minimum. A team may offer 15*7.

It’s very possible he goes to see what’s out there snd finds it’s not what he was expecting.

Aho isn't a star center? Dude what are you even on?

"Columbus got a player who came to them when the market dried up." We really gonna pretend that Philly, NJD, and NYI weren't all in on Johnny?

Detroit and Columbus aren't gonna beat out a revamped Boston? With Marner? Lolwut?

 

[tomd]

Guys play south of the border so they can live in anonymity or for warmer winters. Taxes would be down the list. Listen to the comments coming from Panther players this series about the toxic pressure on the Leafs top guys in TO. Those guys leave their jobs at the rink. That’s not an option in a Canadian city, especially TO.,

I was responding to your specific comment about not paying taxes at the posted rate.

 

[NWWisconsinDuck]

In theory, what would a trade for Marner’s rights pre-July 1 look like? Obviously alot of caveats to that but just in a vacuum

 

[Legion34]

Aho isn't a star center? Dude what are you even on?

"Columbus got a player who came to them when the market dried up." We really gonna pretend that Philly, NJD, and NYI weren't all in on Johnny?

Detroit and Columbus aren't gonna beat out a revamped Boston? With Marner? Lolwut?

1.)Aho isn’t a star center. He’s not. He’s a great player. He is not a star center. Either is Larkin. He’s less than a ppg. He is scoring at Tavares levels this year. Marner didn’t want to play with JT. He wanted to play with Matthews.

They aren’t the same level.

2.) yes. What I am saying is true. JG wanted to go be near his family. He was In talks with Philly and they spent it. He even talked about the stress of being ufa etc. they were holding the press conference and cancelled it.

They were shocked he wanted To come.

It’s reality.

Marner already turned down Carolina.

I think. Vegas tries to make room. And or LA can take him on for sure. But high taxes.

My guess is that Toronto signs Marner to the 8th year to get the money down. We take on karlson and then Marner goes for rantanen money to Vegas.

I’m fascinated.

He ultimately can do whatever he wants. No one will know until July 1. But it’s interesting to look at realistic options

 

[Strangle]

I think Marner goes to philly