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Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

What jersey will Mitchell Marner be wearing in the 2025-26 season?


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I would not mind Phil Kess... Marner in Edmonton.

No idea how we'd make the cap work, but supposedly we almost acquired Rantanen, so... 😂
 
Free agency with cap going up. A great time to hit the market. Marner will cash in.

If the area and raising a family is high the list for Mitch. I'd guess Anaheim or San Jose as well. And the media isn't as rabid.
 
Marner appears to be quite greedy. He may well want year 8. Be a sign and trade
He'd be 35 when a 7 year would end. Short of a catastrophic injury, he'd still be able to get paid again by that time.

Better off going to UFA and having a bidding war that lands you $14M x 7 than picking your spot to be traded and getting $12.5M x 8.
 
I'd still easily sign Marner if he wanted to come to Pittsburgh, but I'll admit Marner's consistent flame outs in the playoffs do make me a bit uneasy for him being a "face of the franchise" type of player. His production in elimination games has been atrocious in the past couple of years:

2025: 0 goals and 3 assists in 5 games, -6
2024: 0 goals and 1 assist in 3 games, even
2023: 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games, +4
2022: 0 goals and 1 assist in 2 games, even
2021: 0 goals and 1 assist in 3 games, even

Is this really the guy you want to throw huge money at? A guy with 1 goal in his last 17 elimination games? I love Marner's talent, but I do wonder if he's the kind of guy you want to be throwing huge money at and basically resetting the salary structure of your entire team. The same thing happened with Toronto when they signed Tavares, they gave him a huge deal and it basically caused all of Marner, Matthews and Nylander to demand ridiculous money after.
 
Free agency with cap going up. A great time to hit the market. Marner will cash in.

If the area and raising a family is high the list for Mitch. I'd guess Anaheim or San Jose as well. And the media isn't as rabid.

I mean, if raising a family in a place that's low key are priorities for Marner, there are at least a handful of locations with cap space that are a better option than either of the Cali franchises...

... Although I do think San Jose is the best option as a place that can both offer him a boatload of cash and a not-to-distant shot at the Cup. Carolina has a more immediate window, but San Jose is building a contender.
 
I can't speak for Marner but I have to think if the rumor is true that the Leafs tried to trade him, that could sour him a lot of resigning. But at the end of the day it is a business and money is money
It works both ways. He wasnt signed and had no intention of signing during the season. Didn’t really leave Toronto with much options. Supposedly Rantanen was willing to sign with Toronto if traded there. I’d take a signed rantanen in that situation.
 
He'd be 35 when a 7 year would end. Short of a catastrophic injury, he'd still be able to get paid again by that time.

Better off going to UFA and having a bidding war that lands you $14M x 7 than picking your spot to be traded and getting $12.5M x 8.

He'll definitely get his payday, but I don't think it'll be nearly as much. I suppose Chicago or Buffalo may be desperate enough to go over what Rantanen makes. But does Mitch want to play either team?
 
I'd still easily sign Marner if he wanted to come to Pittsburgh, but I'll admit Marner's consistent flame outs in the playoffs do make me a bit uneasy for him being a "face of the franchise" type of player. His production in elimination games has been atrocious in the past couple of years:

2025: 0 goals and 3 assists in 5 games, -6
2024: 0 goals and 1 assist in 3 games, even
2023: 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games, +4
2022: 0 goals and 1 assist in 2 games, even
2021: 0 goals and 1 assist in 3 games, even

Is this really the guy you want to throw huge money at? A guy with 1 goal in his last 17 elimination games? I love Marner's talent, but I do wonder if he's the kind of guy you want to be throwing huge money at and basically resetting the salary structure of your entire team. The same thing happened with Toronto when they signed Tavares, they gave him a huge deal and it basically caused all of Marner, Matthews and Nylander to demand ridiculous money after.

Not to be a dick, but I don't think Pittsburgh has to worry about playoffs for awhile even if they did bring on Marner...

Also, I still think the Nylander negotiation was a bigger detriment to the team than Tavares.

You can explain away giving big bucks to a superstar UFA when negotiating with RFAs, but the Leafs were a Top 3 offense coming up to Nylander's deadline, and in the 11th hour, Dubas caved in and gave him significantly more than Larkin and Ehlers got, (Who were both producing comparably the year before on worse teams) and more than Barkov or MacKinnon had gotten in recent years. (Inflated)

He was negotiating from a position of power and ended up caving in and paying Nylander over what the market dictated he was worth. And the biggest mistake was, he did it the year before two much bigger contracts were coming up. Matthews, Marner, and their agents knew at that point that they could bend him over for any amount they wanted.
 
Not to be a dick, but I don't think Pittsburgh has to worry about playoffs for awhile even if they did bring on Marner...

That's not the point of what I was saying. It's about signing Marner and resetting the financial structure of your team. Because if you sign Marner to a $14 million deal, any players down the line are also going to want a dumptruck of money. The same way that the Leafs signing Tavares caused the Leafs core to go after money too.
 
That's not the point of what I was saying. It's about signing Marner and resetting the financial structure of your team. Because if you sign Marner to a $14 million deal, any players down the line are also going to want a dumptruck of money. The same way that the Leafs signing Tavares caused the Leafs core to go after money too.

PIT doesn't really have to worry about any studs demanding Marner money in the next five years either, lol.

And again, I don't think Tavares was as much the problem for Matthews/Marner as Nylander was.
 
Okay, take out the Penguins entirely then. Apply the thought to San Jose instead, who has Eklund, Celebrini and Smith as future major earners.
That would be a different story for sure.

... But again, you can explain paying big bucks to a superstar UFA when negotiating with RFAs. It's not the same thing.
 
Imo there will be a club that goes 15 x 7.
You can't give 15 year contracts in the NHL.

I would taker Matthews all day long, even though he isn't at the level of Mckinnon, Draisaitl, or McDavid, and has a creepy moustache. Marner....pfft.
 
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Imo there will be a club that goes 15 x 7.

he has to way competition. New family. Media/pressure. Endorsements. Signing bonuses. All time standing in leafs history.

Whether or not the fans want.
Toronto is on record saying they want to sign him.

He would get 13x8=104 million. About 95 million would be SB and he would get
Like 20 million a year in the first 4 years. That is huge.
Plus endorsements here he won’t get in small markets.

Looking at the final 8.

Carolina could sign him. But would they give the bonuses? Do they?

Vegas could make room and no tax.

The rest couldn’t take him on. He’s not going to Winnipeg and Edmonton. Dallas is out. Washington is done in 2 years.

Would he go to a rebuild?
Seattle?

Go out west when he just had a kid?
 
he has to way competition. New family. Media/pressure. Endorsements. Signing bonuses. All time standing in leafs history.

Whether or not the fans want.
Toronto is on record saying they want to sign him.

He would get 13x8=104 million. About 95 million would be SB and he would get
Like 20 million a year in the first 4 years. That is huge.
Plus endorsements here he won’t get in small markets.

Looking at the final 8.

Carolina could sign him. But would they give the bonuses? Do they?

Vegas could make room and no tax.

The rest couldn’t take him on. He’s not going to Winnipeg and Edmonton. Dallas is out. Washington is done in 2 years.

Would he go to a rebuild?
Seattle?

Go out west when he just had a kid?
Didn’t Treliving ask Marner to waive his NMC at the last TDL? Marner will go to the club of his choice on July 1. And that’s not going to be the Leafs. Maybe he heads to Detroit? Very close to home and a young upcoming team.
 
I think Marner goes to a more low pressure environment. San Jose or Anaheim would be a good fit for him in my opinion.
 
he has to way competition. New family. Media/pressure. Endorsements. Signing bonuses. All time standing in leafs history.

Whether or not the fans want.
Toronto is on record saying they want to sign him.

He would get 13x8=104 million. About 95 million would be SB and he would get
Like 20 million a year in the first 4 years. That is huge.
Plus endorsements here he won’t get in small markets.

Looking at the final 8.

Carolina could sign him. But would they give the bonuses? Do they?

Vegas could make room and no tax.

The rest couldn’t take him on. He’s not going to Winnipeg and Edmonton. Dallas is out. Washington is done in 2 years.

Would he go to a rebuild?
Seattle?

Go out west when he just had a kid?
The pressure, if not outright hatred, from the Toronto media and fans will be overwhelming. He should leave and start over somewhere. Some sucke... er, team, will offer him a boatload of cash. I could see SEA or Utah stepping up financially. Nice places to live, no pressure.
 

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