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Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

What jersey will Mitchell Marner be wearing in the 2025-26 season?


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I'd put money on the Hurricanes to at least make an offer and a decent pitch. They have a good system, everyone plays 200ft game and they need raw talent. They have lots of cap space on top of that. Not too big a market. Seems like a very good fit.
Owner is cheap as hell and will never sign Marner for what he’s demanding.
 
I don't think a bunch of decent young prospects/NHLers looking good after getting eliminated on the 2nd worst team in the NHL is a selling point for a guy who wants to win now. Teams like Utah and Anahiem can offer the same, but more and being closer to the playoffs.

I don’t disagree, but the guy said bedard and basically nothing else.

If you’re going to troll you might need to try harder considering the hawks have a consensus top 5 (top 3 even) prospect pool in the sport.

I don’t disagree Marner probably wants to go to a better team that’s closer to the playoffs, most hawks fans wouldn’t balk at that opinion.
 
I don’t disagree, but the guy said bedard and basically nothing else.

If you’re going to troll you might need to try harder considering the hawks have a consensus top 5 (top 3 even) prospect pool in the sport.

I don’t disagree Marner probably wants to go to a better team that’s closer to the playoffs, most hawks fans wouldn’t balk at that opinion.

The only thing I'd push back on is that of the players you listed only Vlasic really moves the needle from an active player POV because he's the only guy who has significant NHL experience. And the only forwards you mentioned are Nazar and Moore. That is "nothing else" compared to most rebuilding teams (SJ, Anahiem, etc.). And those forwards + Bedard lack size, as does Marner.

I just don't see the fit for Marner based on his ambitions and role. You basically need a Bertuzzi sales job and the biggest contract offered to compete against other teams that figure to be in the mix, both rebuilding or competing now.
 
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San Jose would honestly be gross.

Can afford to overpay him over the next two years while Celebrini and Smith are on ELCs. And then when the cap is $113.5M, Marner's cap hit doesn't hurt nearly as bad.
Just shooting yourself in the foot … SJ needs to lock down their 2 big Guns Celly and Smith …. B4 overpaying for the likes of Marner.
 
I'll guess Vegas.

Getting shutout by Stuart Skinner twice showed their lack of high-end talent (I mean for god's sake Eichel was centering Howden and Olofsson in game 5), and Stone and Hertl aren't getting any younger.

They are one of the few teams big enough to add a guy like Marner without their overall toughness becoming an issue.

Would probably have to deal Wild Bill's 5.9M and Hague/Whitecloud to open up enough cap space to make it happen.

Even if Vegas were to move Hague AND Karlsson that would only leave them with 16m in space. Marner is probably going to come in around 14m by himself. 2m is not enough for 3 more top 9 forwards and a backup goalie. Plain and simple, the Marner numbers do not work for Vegas short of a surprise LTIRetirement from Stone/Petro.

And that's not even getting into the issue of fit. The biggest need in Vegas is a goalscorer to play with Eichel.
 
Despite the history of poor playoff performances, the Kraken are very likely going to engage in talks with him. They are in desperate need for an elite offensive player and see them offer him something in the 13-14M range but I doubt Marner has any interest at all in coming to Seattle. He seems to enjoy the limelight in Toronto so maybe he goes for one of the bigger hockey markets.
 
Even if Vegas were to move Hague AND Karlsson that would only leave them with 16m in space. Marner is probably going to come in around 14m by himself. 2m is not enough for 3 more top 9 forwards and a backup goalie. Plain and simple, the Marner numbers do not work for Vegas short of a surprise LTIRetirement from Stone/Petro.

And that's not even getting into the issue of fit. The biggest need in Vegas is a goalscorer to play with Eichel.

I don't think Marner will command anywhere close to 14 million, especially not after his playoff struggles are evidenced yet again.

Rantanen couldn't get more than 12M, so I'm not sure why Marner would.

I'm thinking he could get up to 11-12 million from a desperate team, but he could come in at around 10-11M from a team like Vegas, which benefits from being one of the more desirable destinations for players in the league.

They can afford him at 10-11 million. Wouldn't leave a ton to fill out the bottom 6, but it's absolutely do-able.

Vegas may prefer a goal scoring winger, but the gap in quality between a guy like Boeser (probably the best goal scorer on the market) and Marner is massive.
 
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so uhhh you call Blackhawks a tire fire I assume from the scandal that literally was a decade ago and now have new owners, GM, coaching staff and all former players gone..yet you then name the very definition of a tire fire in Utah

Uhhhh?
 
Islanders make sense.

The need is there.
The cap space is reasonably there (may have to trade one or two RFA) or the assets (Colorado first) to trade bad contracts.
Small market and big market mix, probably the type of environment Mitch would thrive in.
Not that far from Toronto.
Matt Martin is here.
 
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I don't think Marner will command anywhere close to 14 million, especially not after his playoff struggles are evidenced yet again.

Rantanen couldn't get more than 12M, so I'm not sure why Marner would.

I'm thinking he could get up to 11-12 million from a desperate team, but he could come in at around 10-11M from a team like Vegas, which benefits from being one of the more desirable destinations for players in the league.

They can afford him at 10-11 million. Wouldn't leave a ton to fill out the bottom 6, but it's absolutely do-able.

Vegas may prefer a goal scoring winger, but the gap in quality between a guy like Boeser (probably the best goal scorer on the market) and Marner is massive.

Marner got an RFA deal worth 13.37% of the cap. With next years cap that percentage would be 12.7m AAV. Then you have to account for the fact he will be unrestricted and a bidding war will probably ensue. Anything under his current AAV is incredibly unlikely. How many guys in their prime hit UFA and take less than they previously made?

Rantanen got 12 in a no tax state and didn't hit the open market. Marner will get more than Rantanen bare minimum just by hitting 7/1 unrestricted.

Vegas didn't choose to build through D and C just to blow it up for Marner. It doesn't make sense logically and it doesn't make sense as a fan of the Knights who knows the biggest weakness is 5on5 goal scoring.
 
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Marner got an RFA deal worth 13.37% of the cap. With next years cap that percentage would be 12.7m AAV. Then you have to account for the fact he will be unrestricted and a bidding war will probably ensue. Anything under his current AAV is incredibly unlikely. How many guys in their prime hit UFA and take less than they previously made?

Rantanen got 12 in a no tax state and didn't hit the open market. Marner will get more than Rantanen bare minimum just by hitting 7/1 unrestricted.

Vegas didn't choose to build through D and C just to blow it up for Marner. It doesn't make sense logically and it doesn't make sense as a fan of the Knights who knows the biggest weakness is 5on5 goal scoring.

Marner's RFA deal was laughable. Everyone made fun of it at the time and since it was signed Marner has done nothing to dispel the notion that he's not a player you can win with. It should have little bearing on his current deal.

Getting a lower average on your first UFA contract is rare but this could be a case where it happens. I don't know too many teams that will be comfortable throwing more than 12M at a tiny winger who's current team is seemingly prepared to let walk for nothing.

People were talking about Gaudreau (RIP) getting more than 10-11M as a UFA, but the demand for him around the league wasn't as high as expected given his point totals. He ended up signing for under 10M in Columbus, widely considered an undesirable market for most players. Marner could be in for a similar treatment.

Rantanen was about to be a UFA and the contract he got from Dallas largely reflected his value on the open market. There may have been teams willing to offer more, but Dallas is an extremely attractive destination for players. So is Vegas, so my point stands that they could probably get Marner cheaper than another team.

I'd be willing to bet that Marner's salary next season will be less than 12.7M, and I don't expect teams like Anaheim, Chicago or San Jose being all that interested in bringing him in.

If you don't think Marner is a good fit in Vegas, fine. Personally I think he'd contribute plenty to the Knights' goal totals, as he is legitimately one of the best setup men in the league. Might not be an ideal linemate for Eichel but seems tailor-made for a goal scoring center like Hertl.
 
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Marner's RFA deal was laughable. Everyone made fun of it at the time and since it was signed Marner has done nothing to dispel the notion that he's not a player you can win with. It should have little bearing on his current deal.

Getting a lower average on your first UFA contract is rare but this could be a case where it happens. I don't know too many teams that will be comfortable throwing more than 12M at a tiny winger who's current team is seemingly prepared to let walk for nothing.

People were talking about Gaudreau (RIP) getting more than 10-11M as a UFA, but the demand for him around the league wasn't as high as expected given his point totals. He ended up signing for under 10M in Columbus, widely considered an undesirable market for most players. Marner could be in for a similar treatment.

Rantanen was about to be a UFA and the contract he got from Dallas largely reflected his value on the open market. There may have been teams willing to offer more, but Dallas is an extremely attractive destination for players. So is Vegas, so my point stands that they could probably get Marner cheaper than another team.

I'd be willing to bet that Marner's salary next season will be less than 12.7M, and I don't expect teams like Anaheim, Chicago or San Jose being all that interested in bringing him in.

I'd take that bet. In fact I'd bet it will be closer to 14m. Mainly because I think Marner will prioritize the money over a better opportunity to win.
 
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The only thing I'd push back on is that of the players you listed only Vlasic really moves the needle from an active player POV because he's the only guy who has significant NHL experience. And the only forwards you mentioned are Nazar and Moore. That is "nothing else" compared to most rebuilding teams (SJ, Anahiem, etc.). And those forwards + Bedard lack size, as does Marner.

I just don't see the fit for Marner based on his ambitions and role. You basically need a Bertuzzi sales job and the biggest contract offered to compete against other teams that figure to be in the mix, both rebuilding or competing now.

I didn’t list any player
 
I'd take that bet. In fact I'd bet it will be closer to 14m. Mainly because I think Marner will prioritize the money over a better opportunity to win.

I just don't see a team offering that for a player like him.

If we were talking a 100 point center, elite powerforward or #1 RD, I might agree, but I don't think there will be enough of a demand for a small winger like Marner.
 
I just don't see a team offering that for a player like him.

If we were talking a 100 point center, elite powerforward or #1 RD, I might agree, but I don't think there will be enough of a demand for a small winger like Marner.

I think we see Marner the same funny enough. I want no part of him on my teams. But there will be 1 (or more) GM's that are dumb enough to offer 7x14.
 
ducks- to show the fans they are serious about winning
caps- load up for another ovi run & have someone in place when ovi retires
vegas- its vegas, they are in for every ufa
 
so just admit you are not watching the Blackhawks then outside of win/loss because Nazar, Moore, Rinzel, Levshunov, Vlasic, Kaiser, EDM have all looked really good when they played together to end the season

Having to cling to guys putting up a good 15 games after the Hawks season was basically done kinda proves my point that the Hawks rebuild is awful right now.

The Hawks have generated 1 top-6 player (Bedard) and 1 top-4 D (Vlasic) from their rebuild. That's literally it right now. No other young player had over 30 points, and only Naser (26 points in 53 games) had a pace of over 30 points. Of their top-10 scorers, 7 of them were 28 or older. That's not the sign of a team that's having a good rebuild, especially with how many years Chicago has been bad for.
 

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