The Leafs need to take MORE penalties

[Stand Witness]

Hear me out.

What is our biggest advantage? It’s our powerplay. When we are playing well, both the powerplay and the penalty kill are high end.

We play our best games when we are physically engaged, aggressive and not afraid to back down. Take an aggressive edge and don’t be afraid to take a call.

So why not be afraid?

NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way. Physical teams have always had the edge and I think a physical team with a powerplay that clicks is lethal.

Lets drag both our team and the other team into the fight. The NHL has always called games like this so lets take advantage of it.

And to be clear, no I don’t mean tacky tripping and holding calls. Although, if they prevent a goal know that a make up call is coming our way.

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[TorMapleJays]

Hear me out.

What is our biggest advantage? It’s our powerplay. When we are playing well, both the powerplay and the penalty kill are high end.

We play our best games when we are physically engaged, aggressive and not afraid to back down. Take an aggressive edge and don’t be afraid to take a call.

So why not be afraid?

NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way. Physical teams have always had the edge and I think a physical team with a powerplay that clicks is lethal.

Lets drag both our team and the other team into the fight. The NHL has always called games like this so lets take advantage of it.

And to be clear, no I don’t mean tacky tripping and holding calls. Although, if they prevent a goal know that a make up call is coming our way.

We tried that, and Clifford took a 5 minute major, and a game misconduct. He didn’t return to the game. Kyle Dubas said no way, that’s not the Maple Leaf Brand.

We cannot have physical players firing up the home crowd, which fires up our players, who go out and shut out the 2x defending Stanley cup champs in a convincing fashion.

No, we sat him for the rest of the playoffs and the whistles slowly disappeared.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I agree to an extent. Guys like Tkachuk or Perry commit three penalties a shift, yet get called less than once a game. We don't really do a good job of earning penalties and never have. That should be worked on. However, over the last 6 playoffs our PP is 16.8% and our PK is 75.8%, which ranks 21st in both categories. If they can't figure out how to fix that, a parade to the box will only sink them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In theory, it could help us.
In practice, we get throwaway PPs in already decided games, while our opponents get two minute 5 on 3s and legitimate goals against them wiped out when on the brink of elimination.

 

[Buds17]

The extra reps in-game should no doubt be beneficial to the PK units!

In all seriousness, the PP and PK both need to be better and I do see the merit in your suggestion.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Assuming the premise of 'one for team A, one for team B' is accurate (it's not - there are teams now with a 30% difference in penalties taken and drawn, and that's for the season, individual games vary much more), let's look at numbers.

Our PP is functioning at 26.2%. Our PK is at 76.7%, so our opponents' PP is functioning at 23.3%. This means that for every 100 penalties we take and every 100 penalties we draw, we score almost 3 more goals.

So far this year we have taken 53 penalties and drawn 55. Almost all are minors, so an average of about 5 per game each way. If we double the number of minor penalties we take (and hope the refs gift us with an equal number of PPs) we will gain an advantage of roughly one goal every seven games!

Couple that with the fact that if we get a lot more aggressive we aren't likely to get the 'even-up' calls, and there is the danger of taking the only major, I'm sure the risk outweighs the potential benefit.

(Unless you're one of the people who likes to blame the refs for our losses - in which case taking more penalties would give you more fuel.)

 

[4thline]

Assuming the premise of 'one for team A, one for team B' is accurate (it's not - there are teams now with a 30% difference in penalties taken and drawn, and that's for the season, individual games vary much more), let's look at numbers.

There's a chance that refs have changed their MO this season. Given multiple seasons worth of remarkable and otherwise unexplainable correlation between penalties drawn and penalties penalties its more likely youre being distracted by noise

 

[KPower]

I like it…it feels like the bruins have done than for years not sure if numbers support it but it sure seems that way.

 

[Nineteen67]

If they make the playoffs, don’t worry about them taking more penalties and at the worst possible time.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Hear me out.

What is our biggest advantage? It’s our powerplay. When we are playing well, both the powerplay and the penalty kill are high end.

We play our best games when we are physically engaged, aggressive and not afraid to back down. Take an aggressive edge and don’t be afraid to take a call.

So why not be afraid?

NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way. Physical teams have always had the edge and I think a physical team with a powerplay that clicks is lethal.

Lets drag both our team and the other team into the fight. The NHL has always called games like this so lets take advantage of it.

And to be clear, no I don’t mean tacky tripping and holding calls. Although, if they prevent a goal know that a make up call is coming our way.

I might as well try this on while we're here.

Hear me out (working title)

I was thinking of adding a second goalie on the ice as a shot blocker/sweeper/rover. The rules say that you can only have one goalie on the ice. What about a shot blocking defender that acts as an extra goalie layer. Nothing in the rules says that a d man can't use a wider stick (hybrid goalie/flat defender stick), glove, blocker, and extra chest/neck protection. Sort of like a shinny type goalie who didn't show up with pads, but is acting as a goalie.

What do you think?

 

[Tak7]

There's been large stretches of games this season where it feels like the Leafs are actually more dangerous on the PK than they are 5on5.

They always seem good for at least 1 oddman rush when a man down, every time. It's pretty awesome. I'm surprised NHL teams haven't tried to galaxy brain "game management" like this yet.

 

[Lightsol]

NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way.

You uh, haven't actually watched this team very closely in the last 5-6 years, have you? As Dekes said, if the Leafs tried this (commit more infractions to get more PP's as a tradeoff), it's far more likely you'll either see the Leafs take penalties without any evening up (because half the time, refs don't even bother with the evening-up part; there's a reason the Leafs were bottom of the league in PP opportunities from 2015 to 2020, and it wasn't because they weren't committing infractions; they had a MASSIVE differential at the time), or the Leafs will get ticky-tack calls in games where they're either leading by a bunch or training by a bunch, and thus the PP's are irrelevant.

 

[NewEraGM]

An example of what this team needs, (I’m not saying these specific players but more so these ingredients)…
In the Mtl and Jets game. Same gagner gave a tiny little poke to the habs goalie and gagner was immediately jumped and cross checked by their 2 defense.

That’s what leads need more of. Not fighting but just toughness and nastiness.

 

[Stephen]

In a game where an official is likely to even up calls, taking a high number of penalties probably results in more special teams in general.

 

[alliuk12]

Hear me out. What is our biggest advantage? It’s our powerplay. When we are playing well, both the powerplay and the penalty kill are high end. We play our best games when we are physically engaged, aggressive and not afraid to back down. Take an aggressive edge and don’t be afraid to take a call. So why not be afraid? NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way. Physical teams have always had the edge and I think a physical team with a powerplay that clicks is lethal. Lets drag both our team and the other team into the fight. The NHL has always called games like this so lets take advantage of it. And to be clear, no I don’t mean tacky tripping and holding calls. Although, if they prevent a goal know that a make up call is coming our way.

Hear me out.

What is our biggest advantage? It’s our powerplay. When we are playing well, both the powerplay and the penalty kill are high end.

We play our best games when we are physically engaged, aggressive and not afraid to back down. Take an aggressive edge and don’t be afraid to take a call.

So why not be afraid?

NHL referees are simple. Team A gets a penalty? Well now Team B gets an even up call. It has always been this way. Physical teams have always had the edge and I think a physical team with a powerplay that clicks is lethal.

Lets drag both our team and the other team into the fight. The NHL has always called games like this so lets take advantage of it.

And to be clear, no I don’t mean tacky tripping and holding calls. Although, if they prevent a goal know that a make up call is coming our way.

your joking right the leafs don`t need to take penalties the ref are passing those out for free watch the games and watch the leafs penalties compared to the penalties called on other teams

 

[Ianturnedbull]

You uh, haven't actually watched this team very closely in the last 5-6 years, have you? As Dekes said, if the Leafs tried this (commit more infractions to get more PP's as a tradeoff), it's far more likely you'll either see the Leafs take penalties without any evening up (because half the time, refs don't even bother with the evening-up part; there's a reason the Leafs were bottom of the league in PP opportunities from 2015 to 2020, and it wasn't because they weren't committing infractions; they had a MASSIVE differential at the time), or the Leafs will get ticky-tack calls in games where they're either leading by a bunch or training by a bunch, and thus the PP's are irrelevant.

So what did you conclude? This seems like a contradiction in sheep's clothing.

 

[TheGreatOne11]

You know what the Leafs need?

To play up to their potential. End of story.

The most frustrating thing about this roster is knowing how capable of greatness it is. Not the bottom 6, but the top.

I don't believe the Patty Kane way is the true way of taking us over the top. I believe it's a retooled bottom 6, and a true stay at home D.

It won't be popular to the masses expending something young and great to not gain a big flashy name, but if we can get a two for one of quality. For the bottom 6 and defense. Thats what i think is needed.

As long as the big boys come to play anyways lol.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

It seems to me that some of the objective statistics people are making referees seem like they take part in a "make the game even/make the game close" conspiracy.

I used to referee basketball games at Sheridan College. I used to referee games like an impartial/fair person would referee a game: call fouls that you observe as fouls and enforce the rules. I never spent anytime wondering what people thought of me or whether the calls were even for both teams. Didn't anyone on this board take Grade 12 gym? They spent part of the gym curriculum teaching us how to be a referee with the famous line: "I don't know, but I know you can't do that".


There's no overreaching body in the NHL telling refs to tally each penalty and then even it up for entertainment purposes.

 

[notDatsyuk]

There's a chance that refs have changed their MO this season. Given multiple seasons worth of remarkable and otherwise unexplainable correlation between penalties drawn and penalties penalties its more likely youre being distracted by noise

I see you focused on one minor assumption and deleted all the relevant numbers.

Even at best, the 'one for team A so one for team B' theory doesn't hold water. Even if it did, do you think the possibility of gaining one goal every seven games is worth the risk of relying on refs to suddenly start calling twice as many penalties on both teams, especially when it's obvious only one is being more aggressive?

 

[ponder]

I agree - NHL refs basically “even up the calls” no matter what, so if you’ve got strong special teams, you should take penalties to get the even up calls later. Plus, if you play dirty and don’t stop, the refs stop calling things, and you get to cheat for free.

The Bruins have played this way for ages, and it’s very effective. We obviously WON’T play this game way, don’t have the team toughness to mix it up all game every game, but it’s a good strategy with the right players.

 

[4thline]

It seems to me that some of the objective statistics people are making referees seem like they take part in a "make the game even/make the game close" conspiracy.

I used to referee basketball games at Sheridan College. I used to referee games like an impartial/fair person would referee a game: call fouls that you observe as fouls and enforce the rules. I never spent anytime wondering what people thought of me or whether the calls were even for both teams. Didn't anyone on this board take Grade 12 gym? They spent part of the gym curriculum teaching us how to be a referee with the famous line: "I don't know, but I know you can't do that".


There's no overreaching body in the NHL telling refs to tally each penalty and then even it up for entertainment purposes.

https://www.sfu.ca/~tswartz/papers/penalty.pdf

 

[Stand Witness]

In a game where an official is likely to even up calls, taking a high number of penalties probably results in more special teams in general.

Which when looking at the our PK and PP % combined for last year, would easily put the Leafs ahead.

That wouldn’t even factor in the added benefit of playing aggressive physically.

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https://www.sfu.ca/~tswartz/papers/penalty.pdf

So teams with a good powerplay should play more chippy to draw more powerplays? Sounds about right with everything I’ve ever see from the NHL.

 

[4thline]

So teams with a good powerplay should play more chippy to draw more powerplays? Sounds about right with everything I’ve ever see from the NHL.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's something that can/should be gamed in a deliberate choice.
But,
It's objective truth that games aren't refereed by the principles of fairness and calling penalties as they see them.

In aggregate it seems to make sense that teams with strong pp/pk should play chippier to up the special teams influence their games, but any impact of that on any single game would be mitigated by the score.

 

[Stand Witness]

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's something that can/should be gamed in a deliberate choice.
But,
It's objective truth that games aren't refereed by the principles of fairness and calling penalties as they see them.

In aggregate it seems to make sense that teams with strong pp/pk should play chippier to up the special teams influence their games, but any impact of that on any single game would be mitigated by the score.

I am not 100% sure this Leafs roster can do it, but there would also be the added benefit of playing a chippy, aggresive style of hockey (imo anyways).

 

[Dekes For Days]

It seems to me that some of the objective statistics people are making referees seem like they take part in a "make the game even/make the game close" conspiracy.

Game management isn't a conspiracy. It's an objective fact.