The Kapanen Method

[Stinger8]

The Leafs had 3 playoff seasons with Muzzin before any of those traded assets played for L.A. in the playoffs. That's the type of trade it was. That L.A. used those assets well (as well as the assets from the Campbell/Clifford trade) is immaterial. The Leafs whether run by Dubas or someone else, they were fortifying for the playoffs (and making up for the franchise's inability to develop defensemen and goaltenders up to that point).

I don't believe trading Muzzin would require a draft pick after seeing him in the 2022 playoffs. He's worth something especially if you're willing to take something back. But I think it's all moot as Muzzin has a full no trade contract. He's not going anywhere. The current GM doesn't hand out no trades then asks the player to waive.

He DOES NOT have a FULL no trade clause. 10 teams only that leaves 22 possible destinations.

 

[Mess]

The Leafs had 3 playoff seasons with Muzzin before any of those traded assets played for L.A. That's the type of trade it was. That L.A. used those assets well (as well as the assets from the Campbell/Clifford trade) is immaterial. The Leafs whether run by Dubas or someone else, they were fortifying for the playoffs (and making up for the franchise's inability to develop defensemen and goaltenders up to that point).

I don't believe trading Muzzin would require a draft pick after seeing him in the 2022 playoffs. He's worth something especially if you're willing to take something back. But I think it's all moot as Muzzin has a full no trade contract. He's not going anywhere. The current GM doesn't hand out no trades then asks the player to waive.

So what I'm hearing you say, is Leafs failure in the playoffs the past 3 years is coming at a much higher opportunity cost and includes far reaching future ones then just an early disappointing playoff exit represents..

Leafs traded their 1st in 2019 for Muzzin, and 1st in 2020 to dump Marleau to free cap space when they signed Tavares to his $11 mil deal and traded their 1st in 2021 for rental Nick Foligno.

So Leafs fortifying for playoff runs against CBJ, Mon and TB has cost the Leafs at least 3 X 1st round picks (excluding all the other picks invested ie 2nd Giordano, 3rd X 2 for Campbell & Clifford etc etc).

Leafs are heavily mortgaging their future with each round #1 loss doubling down on present day costs, and sacrificing future impact at the same time with each early exit. A franchise ability to develop future NHLers is ZERO if you don't even make them. .. Eventually an organization pays a steep price down the road when you start missing all those 1st round level prospects from future build potentials, paying for past failures.

So I can see the logical reasoning behind this thread concept of lets trade active players off the roster that are failing year after year and try and attempt to recapture the damage the GM has done to the Leafs future in hopes that with the cap space recovered, you make better decisions and add players that can help you win and not contribute to the team losing. That is what I would expect a new someone else GM would do to help erase past mistakes and minimize the damage inflicted on the Leafs future. Since we aren't changing GMs then the current one is tasked with that job of trying to get rid of players he acquired in his failed Cup competitive team building attempts.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Kerfoot, Holl and Mrazek should be the obvious targets to move and would free up almost 10 million in cap space. I would prefer that to moving Nylander to free up 7 million.

Muzzin is not as durable as he used to be, but he was still on our best defensive pairing in the playoffs. I think it's too soon to move him.

 

[Apex Predator]

What type of return are you expecting for players like that ?

When I see names like that I immediately think Leafs Return on Investment (ROI) wouldn't even come close their cost of acquisition.

Leafs traded a 1st in 2019 (#22-Dman Tobias Bjornfot who played 70 games for LA this year) + 2 X 2nd round Leaf drafted prospects (Carl Grundstrom, & Sean Durzi) both contributing members of LA playoff roster combining for 4 goals 3 assists and 7 points in their series with Edmonton. So cost to acquire 1 X 1st + 2 X 2nd round pick level prospects.

Now Muzzin has injury history (multiple concussions in same season) missing almost 1/2 the season (played only 47 games) and has a big contract $5.625 mil X 2 years remaining. His next concussion could be his last and with his physical style of play more likely then not. Big Red flag there..

While his contract is front-loaded, there is still $8 mil in actual salary remaining. So Cap hit >> the salary only benefits non competitive teams needed cap $$ to play near the cap floor perhaps. Muzzin also has a limited NTC that list 10 teams submitted he can't be traded to. Now nearly 34 years old Muzzin is not going to poor team to end his career but would want to chase a Cup. So tough contract to unload with limited trade partners due to NTC situation. IMO

Remember Dubas had to give up Leafs 1st along with Patty Marleau to remove a contract with $6.25 mil Cap and $4.25 mil salary, which in real salary only 1/2 of what Muzz has remaining.

So could dumping Muzzin's contract require the Leafs to add the pick/prospect to recover the cap space to re-invest in UFA?

Muzzin seems more like a LTIR candidate on his next injury, and then Leafs using his cap to replace him on the roster. IMO

That type of trade the always were never going to get full value back. It was all about playoff success and if down there road they decided to trade him there were never planning on getting that value back.

McCann would be where the Leafs got him and then would be able to trade him for more than what they gave up.

 

[justashadowof]

He DOES NOT have a FULL no trade clause. 10 teams only that leaves 22 possible destinations.

 

[ACC1224]

Kerfoot, Holl and Mrazek should be the obvious targets to move and would free up almost 10 million in cap space. I would prefer that to moving Nylander to free up 7 million.

Muzzin is not as durable as he used to be, but he was still on our best defensive pairing in the playoffs. I think it's too soon to move him.

Right now Mrazek is the number 1. Risky to move him without another option in place.

 

[Morgs]

Trade Rielly

 

[The Iceman]

The Kapanen trade is a competitive advantage the leafs should take advantage of.

Give up a player with salary for a draft pick
Take the saved $$$ and get a UFA to come to Toronto which is easy.

(I am not saying do this exactly)
but at a super high level how about this

Trade Marner for 5-1 round picks
Take the $10+ million saved and sign Gaudreau

What is more valuable.
Marner
or
Gaudreau + 5-1sts?

 

[Sypher04]

So what I'm hearing you say, is Leafs failure in the playoffs the past 3 years is coming at a much higher opportunity cost and includes far reaching future ones then just an early disappointing playoff exit represents..

Leafs traded their 1st in 2019 for Muzzin, and 1st in 2020 to dump Marleau to free cap space when they signed Tavares to his $11 mil deal and traded their 1st in 2021 for rental Nick Foligno.

So Leafs fortifying for playoff runs against CBJ, Mon and TB has cost the Leafs at least 3 X 1st round picks (excluding all the other picks invested ie 2nd Giordano, 3rd X 2 for Campbell & Clifford etc etc).

Leafs are heavily mortgaging their future with each round #1 loss doubling down on present day costs, and sacrificing future impact at the same time with each early exit. A franchise ability to develop future NHLers is ZERO if you don't even make them. .. Eventually an organization pays a steep price down the road when you start missing all those 1st round level prospects from future build potentials, paying for past failures.

So I can see the logical reasoning behind this thread concept of lets trade active players off the roster that are failing year after year and try and attempt to recapture the damage the GM has done to the Leafs future in hopes that with the cap space recovered, you make better decisions and add players that can help you win and not contribute to the team losing. That is what I would expect a new someone else GM would do to help erase past mistakes and minimize the damage inflicted on the Leafs future. Since we aren't changing GMs then the current one is tasked with that job of trying to get rid of players he acquired in his failed Cup competitive team building attempts.

I don’t disagree with the thought process that eventually trading your picks will bite you and you really need success along the way, but I would argue personally, had the Leafs escaped round 1 they could have gone very deep. Trading picks is clearly more palatable when you retains the player acquired and can continue reaping value from them and building toward the ultimate goal. Continuing with this in mind I hope we keep both Gio and Lyubushkin.

Since 2014, where they selected Nylander, the Leafs have only not had a selection in the 1st round twice and they will pick again this year. They have also had at least one 2nd every single draft in that same timeframe. So it’s really not as dire as one might claim.

Amirovs health status muddies things a bit, which I think contributed to Dubas’ determination to not include a 1st in any deal this year

Just the last 3 drafts we’ve added Robertson, Knies, Hirvonen, Niemela, Voit, Abruzzese in the 2nd round of the draft or later, who while all are unproven are showing great promise.

Honestly our biggest issue draft wise is the basically nothing we got from rounds 2-7 under Hunters watch. We should have players from those 3 drafts rounding out our NHL club now, but instead we’re left waiting for the next wave to hopefully make it soon, beginning with Robertson

 

[sxvnert]

If there's one offseason play I want to see happen with the Kyle Dubas and the Leafs, it's that they can replicate something like the Kasperi Kapanen to Pittsburgh deal in 2020.

That trade accomplished two things where they traded a roster player for pure futures and picks, and simultaneously reinvest the cap space on the UFA market. That way you can pad up the farm system or draft pick cache a little bit and create a different look on the roster. My first preferences for this kind of deal would be Muzzin, Kerfoot or even Brodie, where you might be able to shed $3.5 to $5.6 million in salary with term left, but can turn around and buy something different on the UFA market or bundle some of those futures for an acquisition elsewhere.

Instead with Nylander this time around.

 

[Skullz]

You're dead on. Our cupboards are bare, deeply feeling the pain of missed picks in the Hunter drafts and of having traded young players and picks in the last couple years. Absolutely trade Kerfoot, Holl, and in my opinion also Muzzin for picks and prospects while using the cap space to sign FA's. There isn't much coming, and we need to address that, cause if we don't win in the next year or two we could be in a lot of trouble.

 

[Jmo89]

I agree with Muzzin. He's still a top 4 dman and he was quite good in the playoffs (yes I know he slipped on the gwg for game 7,) but his injuries offer alot of uncertainty.

People aren't going to like it but Nylander likely needs to be moved for any real change. The core had a solid 3 seasons of being favorites and they couldn't get it done. Nylander is the cheapest and holds alot of value. Although Marner's contract is still gross, I think he also showed he's the more valuable one going forward. I was all aboard the Marner trade train last year but he really elevated his game in multiple areas this year.

IMO they should trade Muzzin for futures, trade Nylander for a dman to replace Muzzin + some cap relief, unload Kerfoot and Holl for whatever they can get, and somehow get rid of Mrazek whether through sweetener or buyout.

Whether we like it or not Tavares is here for the length of his contract, so they can then use the money from Muzzin/Kerfoot/Holl/Mrazek on a goalie and two forwards that better compliment Tavares. I'm confident two guys pulling their weight on the second line can be more valuable than Nylander (very valuable) and Kerfoot (very little results.)

 

[Gary Nylund]

I like the premise, like it a lot. It's been discussed before, I think it was when talk was about Marner and offersheets and the idea was to take the picks for him if it comes down to that, and use the dough to sigh Panarin. Makes a ton of sense if you ask me.

Today, the ideal candidate is Nylander. He's had two great playoffs, he's under contract for two more years so a year from now, he'll be worth a lot less in a trade but resigning him will be tough to impossible so trading him would be the kind of progressive/pro-active move that I would love to see. And then use that cap space to sign the best goalie you can find and if no UFA fits the description, the assets we get back for Nylander will compensate for whatever we have to trade for a goalie.

 

[Mess]

I don’t disagree with the thought process that eventually trading your picks will bite you and you really need success along the way, but I would argue personally, had the Leafs escaped round 1 they could have gone very deep. Trading picks is clearly more palatable when you retains the player acquired and can continue reaping value from them and building toward the ultimate goal. Continuing with this in mind I hope we keep both Gio and Lyubushkin.

Since 2014, where they selected Nylander, the Leafs have only not had a selection in the 1st round twice and they will pick again this year. They have also had at least one 2nd every single draft in that same timeframe. So it’s really not as dire as one might claim.

Amirovs health status muddies things a bit, which I think contributed to Dubas’ determination to not include a 1st in any deal this year

Just the last 3 drafts we’ve added Robertson, Knies, Hirvonen, Niemela, Voit, Abruzzese in the 2nd round of the draft or later, who while all are unproven are showing great promise.

Honestly our biggest issue draft wise is the basically nothing we got from rounds 2-7 under Hunters watch. We should have players from those 3 drafts rounding out our NHL club now, but instead we’re left waiting for the next wave to hopefully make it soon, beginning with Robertson

Problem isn't the few 2nd round picks that might hit for the Leafs its all the missing ones, that the competition particularly those in the rear-view window below the Leafs that are currently rebuilding and picking multiple 1st round picks and high draft picks. All teams have players of the Voit, Abruzzese and Niemela level in their systems currently and much more than that.

Montreal has 1st overall and multiple 1st round picks this year, Buffalo and CBJ etc have multiple top 12 picks and other Eastern and Atlantic teams Philly, NYI, Detroit and Ottawa all have early picks coming and that is only this year. Some of the teams below TO have been restocking and refueling for years.

Just look at Detroit with young studs like Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider both rookies and already 50 point players for example and has made a dozen picks in the 1st or 2nd round the past few years, or NYR who missed the playoffs and added Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider as high picks and now already passed the Leafs and into the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Leafs Cup competitive window is closing with each missed opportunity and the teams below the Leafs are stockpiling and only going to be down for so long before they're mentioned as playoff spot contenders and Leafs missing high picks mortgaged for the present will bite them because they won't have those high-end prospects to fuel the future.

Basically the Leafs are burning the candle and both ends without success in either the present and its coming at the expense of the future. That not only hurts today it will hurt tomorrow and beyond also. Toronto made only 3 picks total last year, and only has 3 picks of 7 rounds this year, as a result of going ALL-IN the past 2 years only with same end results .

 

[CapspaceKiller]

Nobody they are willing to trade has as much value as Kapanen, maybe Brodie and trading him would be ridiculously stupid.

They're going to dump Kerfoot and Holl and get like a 2nd and 3rd and that'll be it.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He DOES NOT have a FULL no trade clause. 10 teams only that leaves 22 possible destinations.

That is after this upcoming year (in the last year of his deal).

And that is also likely when the Leafs move him too.

 

[Apex Predator]

Leafs would like to probably trade Kerfoot, Holl, mrazek, Muzzin and get just draft picks/prospects in return to clear cap space. How realistic is that? A lot of contenders are up against the cap so taking on just the cap hit might be hard. A team rebuilding or not considering themselves contenders probably aren’t giving us high assets.

I do wonder what players are coming in return for some of these guys. I see them more being traded in a player for player trade.

 

[paulhiggins]

How about a 3-way blockbuster where we get Verhaeghe, Marchment and McCann for Kerfoot + the price equivalent of what we originally got back for the other two?

 

[Brown Dog]

Right now Mrazek is the number 1. Risky to move him without another option in place.

 

[m1ker]

What happens when Matthews and Nylander are UFAs in 2 years? You think we can sign them both? They aren’t rolling it back it’s just a bluff.

 

[DcW]

What happens when Matthews and Nylander are UFAs in 2 years? You think we can sign them both? They aren’t rolling it back it’s just a bluff.

That’s the bigger picture right there. They won’t be able to sign Willy in two years. His max value to an acquiring team is now. Coming off statistically a good year, decent playoffs and two full years left. Asset management says trade him now

 

[m1ker]

That’s the bigger picture right there. They won’t be able to sign Willy in two years. His max value to an acquiring team is now. Coming off statistically a good year, decent playoffs and two full years left. Asset management says trade him now

And Marner UFA the year after who likely wants to match the Matthews deal. I don’t think they risk it signing Nylander.

 

[rocketman588]

If there's one offseason play I want to see happen with the Kyle Dubas and the Leafs, it's that they can replicate something like the Kasperi Kapanen to Pittsburgh deal in 2020.

That trade accomplished two things where they traded a roster player for pure futures and picks, and simultaneously reinvest the cap space on the UFA market. That way you can pad up the farm system or draft pick cache a little bit and create a different look on the roster. My first preferences for this kind of deal would be Muzzin, Kerfoot or even Brodie, where you might be able to shed $3.5 to $5.6 million in salary with term left, but can turn around and buy something different on the UFA market or bundle some of those futures for an acquisition elsewhere.

Great concept in practice

However they will all have full or modified no trades by next year.

Mrazek as well

 

[TheGreenTBer]

And here I thought the "Kapanen Method" was to skate really fast, fire a shot into the goalie's chest and brag about it on social media. Shows what I know.

 

[ACC1224]