The Jakob Chychrun Thread

[Chokingdogs]

He’s the most offensively gifted D-man since Green, before he broke, and Gonchar prior to that, before he became a bum.

They need to do whatever they can to keep him, within reason, even if that means paying a little more. Would really stink if he walked over an extra year, or half mil per season, no?

 

[Lou Sassole]

This seems a bit cherry picked as the whole team around Fox is trash, which is always going to bring down numbers. Doubly so for a defensemen who'll rely on his forwards less then himself to get good shooting opportunities.

The simple answer is this team has coveted Chychurn for years, he's been playing well, and he's a young good to great player in this league. I don't understand this hesitance in re-signing him.

Plus Chychrun's shot is elite in ways that Fox's never was. Chychrun is simply one of the best Dmen shooters in the league.

 

[Random schmoe]

Just for those who are thinking $9M+/- AAV for Chychrun ... the table below lists the current 10 highest paid defensemen in terms of AAV, their status when signing (UFA, etc), and games/goals/points in the year prior to signing the contract. (The NMC# refers to how many years the contract has a full NMC. If no number, it means every year.)

The last column is what AAV that cap hit percentage would equal using the 2025-26 salary cap of $95.5M.

Chychrun would have every right to ask for >$10M given comparables and his numbers this season. I have little doubt he would get that on the open market should he reach UFA.

Player	AAV	Length	Cap Hit % at Signing	Signing Status (UFA etc)	Clauses	Games (Year Before Signing)	Goals (Year Before Signing	Assists (Year Before Signing	Total Points (Year Before Signing	Goals Per Game (Year Before Signing	Points Per Game (Year Before Signing	AAV from Cap Hit % at current Cap
Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	14.11%	UFA	NMC	53	3	42	45	.057	.849	$13,475,050.00
Rasmus Dahlin	$11,000,000	8	12.50%	RFA-Arb		81	20	39	59	.247	.728	$11,937,500.00
Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	13.50%	UFA	NMC4	82	8	37	45	.098	.549	$12,892,500.00
Zach Werenski	$9,583,333	6	11.62%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	68	11	37	48	.162	.706	$11,097,100.00
Seth Jones	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	UFA	NMC	78	5	46	51	.064	.654	$11,001,600.00
Charlie McAvoy	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	78	10	46	56	.128	.718	$11,001,600.00
Adam Fox	$9,500,000	7	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC2	78	11	63	74	.141	.949	$11,001,600.00
Darnell Nurse	$9,250,000	8	11.21%	UFA	NMC	71	9	26	35	.127	.493	$10,705,550.00
Roman Josi	$9,059,000	8	11.12%	UFA	NMC	69	16	49	65	.232	.942	$10,619,600.00
Cale Makar	$9,000,000	6	11.04%	RFA		44	8	36	44	.182	1.000	$10,543,200.00
Jakob Chychrun				UFA		64	18	25	43	.281	.672

 

[Corby78]

Is it better to sign him or replace him? I think it’s obvious. Sign the guy. We have tons coming off the books, the cap is going up, we are probably replacing bottom six guys on the cheap with guys coming up. Get it done. Let him replace carlson on some PP time and it will be doubly worth it. We can’t replace him from the pipeline and we will never get the same value on the free market. I heard this guys name for two years when it came to rebuilding this roster and he is here. Don’t just let him walk.

 

[crab]

He’s the most offensively gifted D-man since Green, before he broke, and Gonchar prior to that, before he became a bum.

They need to do whatever they can to keep him, within reason, even if that means paying a little more. Would really stink if he walked over an extra year, or half mil per season, no?

You are underselling John Carlson significantly. I have been hard on Carlson over the years but offensively in his prime he was significantly better than Chychrun. Carlson is and was not as flashy as Chychrun.

 

[Chokingdogs]

You are underselling John Carlson significantly. I have been hard on Carlson over the years but offensively in his prime he was significantly better than Chychrun. Carlson is and was not as flashy as Chychrun.

I wasn’t implying that Carlson wasn’t offensively gifted, he is/was, just in a different way. I see Carlson like a Calle whereas chyc is cut from a different bolt of cloth.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

'cause he and his agent want 8x$10m?

Source of this info? Never saw anything indicating $10M.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He’s the most offensively gifted D-man since Green, before he broke, and Gonchar prior to that, before he became a bum.

They need to do whatever they can to keep him, within reason, even if that means paying a little more. Would really stink if he walked over an extra year, or half mil per season, no?

I mean Carlson had 4 seasons of 68 points PLUS since 2018……

Might be the most gifted goal scorer among D since Green, but overall, nope not for me, and it’s not particularly close in favor of JC74.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Just for those who are thinking $9M+/- AAV for Chychrun ... the table below lists the current 10 highest paid defensemen in terms of AAV, their status when signing (UFA, etc), and games/goals/points in the year prior to signing the contract. (The NMC# refers to how many years the contract has a full NMC. If no number, it means every year.)

The last column is what AAV that cap hit percentage would equal using the 2025-26 salary cap of $95.5M.

Chychrun would have every right to ask for >$10M given comparables and his numbers this season. I have little doubt he would get that on the open market should he reach UFA.

Player	AAV	Length	Cap Hit % at Signing	Signing Status (UFA etc)	Clauses	Games (Year Before Signing)	Goals (Year Before Signing	Assists (Year Before Signing	Total Points (Year Before Signing	Goals Per Game (Year Before Signing	Points Per Game (Year Before Signing	AAV from Cap Hit % at current Cap
Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	14.11%	UFA	NMC	53	3	42	45	.057	.849	$13,475,050.00
Rasmus Dahlin	$11,000,000	8	12.50%	RFA-Arb		81	20	39	59	.247	.728	$11,937,500.00
Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	13.50%	UFA	NMC4	82	8	37	45	.098	.549	$12,892,500.00
Zach Werenski	$9,583,333	6	11.62%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	68	11	37	48	.162	.706	$11,097,100.00
Seth Jones	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	UFA	NMC	78	5	46	51	.064	.654	$11,001,600.00
Charlie McAvoy	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	78	10	46	56	.128	.718	$11,001,600.00
Adam Fox	$9,500,000	7	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC2	78	11	63	74	.141	.949	$11,001,600.00
Darnell Nurse	$9,250,000	8	11.21%	UFA	NMC	71	9	26	35	.127	.493	$10,705,550.00
Roman Josi	$9,059,000	8	11.12%	UFA	NMC	69	16	49	65	.232	.942	$10,619,600.00
Cale Makar	$9,000,000	6	11.04%	RFA		44	8	36	44	.182	1.000	$10,543,200.00
Jakob Chychrun				UFA		64	18	25	43	.281	.672

How many of those guys are primarily 3rd pairing guys?

I can’t see making this guy the highest paid player on the team myself….

 

[Ridley Simon]

He won’t make more than Ovy. 8x9m should get it done.

 

[895]

8x8 I can happily accept
8x9 I can reluctantly accrpt
8x10m and I’m out.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Notable defensemen who average similar TOI as Chychrun, in descending order of AAV, with the year their deal started:

Dougie Hamilton: 9, 2021
Owen Power: 8.35, 2024
Brent Burns: 8, 2017
Jacob Trouba: 8, 2019
Jared Spurgeon: 7.575, 2020
Morgan Rielly: 7.5, 2022
Noah Hanifin: 7.35, 2024
Brady Skjei: 7, 2024
Ryan McDonagh: 6.75, 2019
Cam Fowler: 6.5, 2018
Torey Krug: 6.5, 2020
Mattias Ekholm: 6.25, 2022
Ryan Pulock: 6.15, 2022

Power, Hanifin, Skjei are the most recent comps, and Power was an RFA, so that makes things murkier in his case. I think Chychrun is better than both Skjei and Hanifin, so bump his AAV up above theirs, plus with the increasing cap you can bump it up further... I think 9-9.5 is where it comes in at.

 

[Random schmoe]

FTR, I wasn't 'concluding' anything with my comparable table. Just putting data out there, because his agent could likely be looking at that data to justify whatever AAV they're asking for. Exemplar of why the extension may not be as easy as some hope.

 

[NoVaCapsFan]

Interesting thread and lots of great tales. My own contribution is this: It’s Ted’s money, not mine, and the cap is going up, and this guy is fun to watch so yeah I am in favor of paying (Ted’s $) what it costs to keep him. They already raised my STH price for next year, better to line Chyc’s pocket than Ted’s.

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

Source of this info? Never saw anything indicating $10M.

No source. I was just responding to a possible reason why they just didn't get 8x8 done.

 

[Jags]

I think you pay him 8x$8M and call it a day. I was looking at the stats on our blue line, and he’s scored more goals than every other D on this team combined.

I feel like you contradicted your first sentence with your second. If 8x8 would get it done, it'd most likely be done by now. Getting what Carlson got many years ago with the cap much higher now would have been a cupcake deal for the team, even before they announced the upcoming cap jumps. But the market is adjusting up big now with that cap news, so it'd make sense if Chychrun's agent wants more.

Don't get me wrong -- I hope you're right. That deal would be great for the club.

We have tons coming off the books

Having the space just gives them room to ask for more, so it kinda breaks both ways. We spent most of the cap hike already, too, so we're not exactly swimming in space. I hope we do our best to sign him, but we're very fortunate to not have any bad contracts on the books (at the moment, knock wood). Best to keep it that way.

There would be a feeding frenzy for him in free agency, and his agent knows that.

 

[wickedwitch]

The other potential issue besides the differences in ideal AAV could be that the Caps don't hand out full NMCs on long-term contracts. They didn't break that rule for Ovi, Backstrom, Wilson, or Carlson, so I don't think Chychrun will be the exception -- nor should he be.

 

[Calicaps]

The other potential issue besides the differences in ideal AAV could be that the Caps don't hand out full NMCs on long-term contracts. They didn't break that rule for Ovi, Backstrom, Wilson, or Carlson, so I don't think Chychrun will be the exception -- nor should he be.

Agree. But they also have a record of keeping core guys around and of ensuring soft landings when they do trade guys.

 

[DWGie26]

Just for those who are thinking $9M+/- AAV for Chychrun ... the table below lists the current 10 highest paid defensemen in terms of AAV, their status when signing (UFA, etc), and games/goals/points in the year prior to signing the contract. (The NMC# refers to how many years the contract has a full NMC. If no number, it means every year.)

The last column is what AAV that cap hit percentage would equal using the 2025-26 salary cap of $95.5M.

Chychrun would have every right to ask for >$10M given comparables and his numbers this season. I have little doubt he would get that on the open market should he reach UFA.

Player	AAV	Length	Cap Hit % at Signing	Signing Status (UFA etc)	Clauses	Games (Year Before Signing)	Goals (Year Before Signing	Assists (Year Before Signing	Total Points (Year Before Signing	Goals Per Game (Year Before Signing	Points Per Game (Year Before Signing	AAV from Cap Hit % at current Cap
Erik Karlsson	$11,500,000	8	14.11%	UFA	NMC	53	3	42	45	.057	.849	$13,475,050.00
Rasmus Dahlin	$11,000,000	8	12.50%	RFA-Arb		81	20	39	59	.247	.728	$11,937,500.00
Drew Doughty	$11,000,000	8	13.50%	UFA	NMC4	82	8	37	45	.098	.549	$12,892,500.00
Zach Werenski	$9,583,333	6	11.62%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	68	11	37	48	.162	.706	$11,097,100.00
Seth Jones	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	UFA	NMC	78	5	46	51	.064	.654	$11,001,600.00
Charlie McAvoy	$9,500,000	8	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC4	78	10	46	56	.128	.718	$11,001,600.00
Adam Fox	$9,500,000	7	11.52%	RFA-Arb	NMC2	78	11	63	74	.141	.949	$11,001,600.00
Darnell Nurse	$9,250,000	8	11.21%	UFA	NMC	71	9	26	35	.127	.493	$10,705,550.00
Roman Josi	$9,059,000	8	11.12%	UFA	NMC	69	16	49	65	.232	.942	$10,619,600.00
Cale Makar	$9,000,000	6	11.04%	RFA		44	8	36	44	.182	1.000	$10,543,200.00
Jakob Chychrun				UFA		64	18	25	43	.281	.672

Interesting data. Thanks.

I believe Chychrun is a bit below these guys who go down to 11%. If they land at 10% that is 9.5M per. that seems more reasonable seeing the percentages. That is same as OV so could still say he is highest paid Cap. Or give JC6 9.45M.

 

[Cappy76]

I wonder if they're sticking to the unofficial nobody makes more than #8 and it causing some pause

 

[DWGie26]

I wonder if they're sticking to the unofficial nobody makes more than #8 and it causing some pause

Yep… that is kinda what I was saying. Might have to settle in at 2x9M if he really wants a lot more. Not sure Chychrun wants to take that bet. But yeah, OV cap hit definitely in the way of signing any 10M + player.

 

[Melkor]

If there's any 10M player to sign - Chychrun is not one of them. I don't care how great his shot is - he just doesn't have the skillset and the body of work of a player that should be making 8 digits a year. And it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with Ovechkin's salary. Chychrun, while pretty nice, is just not that guy. To make money like those guys listed above (Karlsson, Dahlin etc.) he simply has to be a #1 D, no less, point blank, period. Is he right now? Everybody knows the answer. So no, if he wants anything above 9 - they need to let him walk and leave that 9x8 on the table in case the market doesn't meet his demands. He can take it unless they sign another big fish.

 

[qcal1427]

Recent comps for Chychrun, their age and percent of the cap at contract start:

Hanifin $7.35Mx8, 28yo, 8.35%
Theodore $7.43Mx7, 29yo, 7.77%
Montour $7.14Mx7, 30, 8.12%
Hronek $7.25Mx8, 26yo, 8.24%
Toews $7.25Mx7, 29yo, 8.24%
Skjei $7Mx7, 30yo, 7.95%
H. Lindholm $6.5Mx8, 28yo, 7.88%
Forsling $5.75Mx8, 28yo, 6.53%
Rielly $7.5Mx8, 27yo, 9.09%

For context here are some guys that were top-5 Norris finishers during their contract year. Chychrun is having a great year, but he's probably not even going to receive votes:
Hamilton $9Mx7, 28yo, 11.0%
Pietrangelo $8.8Mx7, 30yo, 10.8%
Carlson $8Mx8, 28yo, 10.06%
McAvoy $9.5Mx8, 23yo, 11.52%

Even if you put Chychrun towards the high end of that first group, you're looking at a $95.5M cap next year x 8.5% of the cap or $8.12Mx8. Be even more generous and use the cap two years from now and it's still at $104M cap x 8.5% or $8.84Mx8. I'm ready to eat crow if Chychrun's number starts with a 9. If it starts with a 10, I'll have a whole feast of crow prepared in every fashion imaginable.