Speculation: The Jakob Chychrun Thread

[Roshi]

8x8 is the rate with old cap, with rising cap the ask has propably gone up.

Darnell Nurse, 9,25m/7years and ntc seems what I would be after if I was Chyhcrun's agent. Would settle for a at 9 with extra year and modified NTCs. Mostly signing bonuses. (call me Jacob if you need a new agent).

If im GM ill offer him the 8/8 and settle for 8,45/8 (Heiskanen) take it or leave it offer. At that point its Chych's decision if he wants to stay or go for that extra few mills elsewehere. First years signing bonuses heavy and full NTC, last years im modding the way he can be traded - modified NTC and frontloaded AAV, bonus heavy on the front aswell and not so much backend. (call me Patrick if you need Assistant GM).

So for me 8,45 is the line i dont want to cross. 8,45x8 = 67,6m.

That would mean he needs to get 9,65 mills (x7) from the FA to match the totals. I dont think JC goes to free agency if thats on the table.

For 8/8 offer the number from FA to match is 9,14. That I could see, but is it worth the risk to wait it out? If he has sucky playoffs or gets injured or whatever, it could cost him millions too. So wouldnt be overly suprised to see it get done under my tops of 8,45 either.

 

[TheSmokingMan]

A lot of good points being brought up in this thread. I think Chychrun signs in Washington. He looks really happy to be playing for a stable organization, with good coaching, a good locker room, and on a winning team. Now that he is being used properly, his true abilities are finally on display and he is fitting in perfectly. The guy must be tired of moving from one bad franchise to another. Other teams, may offer a little more money than the Caps, but I get the feeling he really wants to remain in Washington.

As for the cap hit and length of contract. I think we are all pretty much in agreement that it will be an 8 year deal, likely with a NTC (I think Chychrun will want the stability). We need to stop looking at the dollar amounts for new contracts and instead look at the cap %.

I think a good starting place is to use John Carlson as a top of the range comp, because I don't think Chychrun will get more than him. JC74 signed his 8 x $8 mil deal in 2018 and at the time it was 10.06% of the cap. It was a deal that turned out to be very fair for both the player and the team. I see the Caps signing Chychrun to a similar deal (maybe a little less).

Warning! Lots of numbers to follow.

The cap is expected to go to $95.5 mil in 2025-26, $104 mil in 2026-27, and $113.5 mil in 2027-28. Lets start by looking at a contract that would be equivalent to the John Carlson extension.

If Chychrun signed today at the same cap % as JC74 the contract would be 8 x $9.61 mil / year. The cap % would drop rapidly in the first 3 years starting at 10.06% in 2025-26, 9.24% in 2026-27, and 8.47% in 2027-2028. I think the Caps walk if his price starts to approach this level.

If the contract were 8 x $9 mil the cap % would be 9.42% in 2025-26, 8.65% in 2026-27, and 7.93% in 2027-28. I could see the Caps being willing to go this high if necessary.

If the the contract were 8 x $8.5 mil the cap % would be 8.9% in 2025-26, 8.17% in 2026-27, and 7.49% in 2027-28. I think this is the most likely outcome and is a number that works for both team and player.

And finally, if we signed Chychrun to an 8 x $8 mil it would be approximately 8.38% of the cap in 2025-26, 7.69% in 2025-27, and 7.05% in 2027-28. This would be a very team friendly deal, IMO.

Maybe my numbers seem to be higher than everyone elses, but I think because of the rising cap and the increased number of bidders, I don't see Chychrun signing for less than 8 x $8 mil, but I also don't see him eclipsing 8 x $9.6 mil because that would put him at a higher cap % than John Carlson. Keep in mind that whatever team gets him will have him for the entire prime of his career, so if he maintains his current level of play this could become a solid value contract as the cap goes up.

If I had to predict, I think 8 x $8.5 mil with a limited NTC gets it done and he stays a Cap.

 

[trick9]

Noah Hanifin % cap contract start: 8.35% (NTC for first 6 years, then 15-team no-trade list)
Devon Toews % cap contract start: 8.24% (NMC for first 2 years, then 12-team no-trade list)
Filip Hronek % cap contract start: 8.24% (NMC for first 3 years, then 15-team no-trade list)
Brandon Montour % cap contract start: 8.12% (NTC for first 3 years, then modified, no details)

8.24% for example would be 7.869m with next years cap.

These are all pretty fair comparables. I'd be willing to even go based on that Hanifin -number, which would be 7.97m AAV. Even if he wanted slightly more, i wouldn't hate it if it meant cutting out some of those NTC years which Hanifin has 6 of. If you want more... show me the comparables.

I'm pretty comfortable this gets done eventually, and the number is going to be right around the numbers each of those players got. Hanifin is a pretty good comparable, IMO.

 

[qc14]

Noah Hanifin % cap contract start: 8.35% (NTC for first 6 years, then 15-team no-trade list)
Devon Toews % cap contract start: 8.24% (NMC for first 2 years, then 12-team no-trade list)
Filip Hronek % cap contract start: 8.24% (NMC for first 3 years, then 15-team no-trade list)
Brandon Montour % cap contract start: 8.12% (NTC for first 3 years, then modified, no details)

8.24% for example would be 7.869m with next years cap.

These are all pretty fair comparables. I'd be willing to even go based on that Hanifin -number, which would be 7.97m AAV. Even if he wanted slightly more, i wouldn't hate it if it meant cutting out some of those NTC years which Hanifin has 6 of. If you want more... show me the comparables.

I'm pretty comfortable this gets done eventually, and the number is going to be right around the numbers each of those players got. Hanifin is a pretty good comparable, IMO.

Yep these are all much better comps than Carlson, Nurse, or Heiskanen. I would also offer up Vince Dunn (8.8%, but on a short-term deal) and Shea Theodore (7.8%).

Even if he's looking to come in above all those guys I think you're still looking at a max of 9% or ~$8.6Mx8. That's $68.8M total or $9.8Mx7 -- I don't see who's giving him that money in UFA.