The Jagr/Mario overlap

[MadLuke]

Considering, or not considering, the nationalities of the players would be a context that some may choose, or not choose to apply.

At some point I would let the reader 100% of the work and provide nothing

 

[Overrated]

For example, "the 70s was a terrible era".

Was anyone saying this at the time?

Did people think he was as good as the best forward of the 60s Hull? When he couldn't even outscore Esposito who peaked a few years before him? I very much doubt it. It wasn't a terrible era. The NHL had some of the most exceptional defensemen ever. Orr, Potvin, Robinson, Park, Salming. The top Canadian forwards just weren't as good as the ones before or after, sh1t happens. The same happened in the early 00s after Gretzky retired and before Crosby appeared. Sakic and Yzerman were already in their 30s, Kariya and Lindros had their fair share of injuries and the best Canadian forward was Iginla.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Lafleur didn't outscore Esposito, but I do think he was the better overall player.

The Orr factor and all.

 

[buffalowing88]

I'm only glancing at the thread, but I see a lot of "Lafleur vs." talk...I'm not convinced that Gilbert Perreault wasn't better than Lafleur.

Perreault was the prototype of Malkin. Not as physical, of course, but I watch them both skate and see the same player at times. He'll be forgotten to time but he is fun to watch in the old highlights.

 

[daver]

Hockey was experiencing a massive boom back then but at the same time the league scoring increased a little bit. I think the two would have canceled each other out. I think it's fair to expect to Lafleur to score at about the same level he did in the mid late 1970s so 80 points less than Greztky. That is a massive disparity. Do you honestly think prime Gretzky would have 80 points on McDavid? Impossible.

Hmmmmm....what kind of math did you learn where a 22% increase in league scoring over a five year period ('77 to '82) is a "little bit".

I challenge to try to find another five year period in league history where scoring took such dramatic rise over a five year period.

I am not a fan of straight up multiply scoring by league GPG but the numbers cannot be denied.

20 PPG scorers in '76/77, two players above 1.40.

63 PPG scorers in '81/82, nine players above 1.40

I would reduce the 63 to 54 to account for the 3 more teams in the league but then a league in transition always results in an increase in the elite scorers benefitting disproportionally. Regardless, it is clear there was a significant shift in the scoring levels of the league's elite scorers.

 

[daver]

I took Mario's best two seasons 88/89 & 92/93 and compare them to the best two Jagr's seasons 98/99 & 99/00 (let's not take into consideration the year of Mario's comeback nor 95/96) and tried to do some sort of adjusting and the two would have been ~40 points apart had Jagr played in a higher scoring environment.

You can come up with any number that fits your narrative if you "try to apply some sort of adjusting".

Using your method, Selanne was playing at a 152 point pace player in 98/99.

Does that sound reasonable? This is almost becoming a rhetorical question at this point.

 

[Overrated]

Hmmmmm....what kind of math did you learn where a 22% increase in league scoring over a five year period ('77 to '82) is a "little bit".

You dishonestly picked the lowest scoring year from the mid-late 70s and matched it with the highest scoring year of the early-mid 80s. The eras averaged roughly 14% difference in scoring. Not an extremely small difference but not as substantial as you're trying to assess.

20 PPG scorers in '76/77, two players above 1.40.

63 PPG scorers in '81/82, nine players above 1.40

I would reduce the 63 to 54 to account for the 3 more teams in the league but then a league in transition always results in an increase in the elite scorers benefitting disproportionally. Regardless, it is clear there was a significant shift in the scoring levels of the league's elite scorers.

In 81/82 only 13 30+ year olds were 0.80 PPG or higher while In 76/77 12 guys were. The league just got better. A huge influx of new players and the first strong generation of Swedes and Americans. Hockey was still booming back then but the league didn't accommodate for this boom as in the previous era where the number of teams from 69/70 to 79/80 grew from 12 to 21.

Gretzky was already no1 in PPG at 18 competing against prime Dionne and Lafleur. Lemieux was 9th, Jagr was 101th, Crosby was 6th, McDavid was 3rd, Hull was 23rd, Gordie was 60th in a league of 150 people.

And yes I get it everybody matures differently, everyone has a different role on a team when freshly new etc. etc. but Gretzky wasn't that early of a bloomer as a teen unlike let's say Crosby or McDavid. 2 years later Gretzky's PPG went from 1.7 to 2.65.

So yep the league quality just got better.

You can come up with any number that fits your narrative if you "try to apply some sort of adjusting".

Using your method, Selanne was playing at a 152 point pace player in 98/99.

No he wasn't. Got anything better?

 

[daver]

No he wasn't. Got anything better?

Show me the work on Jagr's "168" point season and I'll show you the work on Selanne's "152 point pace" season.

And also the work on how a 147 point Mike Bossy finishes 6th in scoring in 98/99.