Tulsky, Carolina’s GM and Harvard grad, indicated that, on average, NHL forwards reach their peak scoring rates around age 24, after which performance steadily declines. Specifically, players tend to maintain approximately 90% of their peak scoring through age 29, but this rate drops to 80% by age 31, 70% by ages 32-33, and 60% by age 35.
So, Marner should maintain 90% of his peak through next year but will already begin to regress in the following seasons.
The same applies to Matthews, Nylander, and Rielly. Tavares, meanwhile, should already be nearing 60% of his peak, which he was in when we signed him.
According to Tulsky’s research, our core has already passed its peak and only won one playoff round while in it.
And now, we’re going to pay three of them even more through their declining years and hope for the best while younger players in their prime will be making half as much?
Good luck. Our cupboard is bare, and in 2-3 years, we’ll be in cap hell.
Patrick Kane won his last cup when he was 25 years old and making 9% of the cap. Toews was 26 and making 9% of the cap when he won his last cup. At the end of their last cup year, both Kane and Toews signed 8 year contracts for 14.7% of the cap. They never came close to a cup again.
Crosby last won the cup in 2015-2016, 2016-2017, Crosby was 28 and 29. He was making 12.18% and 11.9% of the cap.
Marner and Matthews will be 13.6% and 14.2% and will be 29 next year.
Do we really want to go 8 more years with this core at their age when some of the best leaders and most talented NHL players never won a cup past the age of 29 and also never won with their cap % that Marner and Matthews will have?
