The gap between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli / Leo Carlson

[ayrton2388]

So, as most people know, Fantilli and Carlson are projected to go 2nd / 3rd in this year's draft.
As a Ducks fan, i thought i'd be happy with any of these 3 players. But i just watched the WJC U20 stats, and, in 7 games, Bedard has 24 points. Compared to the 5 pts of Fantilli or 6 by Carlson, the difference is huuuuge.

Is the gap really that big between Bedard and the other two, when it comes to the skill level? I mean, i knew Bedard was a generational player, #1 pick for sure, people were saying this for years now. But how much better is he than the other two?

 

[waitin425]

The gap is pretty clear between Bedard and those two. But somewhere in between those three is Michkov. That gap isn't as big as most people think.

Bedard
Michkov

Fantilli
Carlsson

 

[HaNotsri]

The gap is pretty clear between Bedard and those two. But somewhere in between those three is Michkov. That gap isn't as big as most people think.

Bedard
Michkov

Fantilli
Carlsson

Carlsson was a legit 1C in the SHL to end the season. I don't think he's close to Bedard but he's probably the best swedish prospect since Dahlin and before him Nicklas Bäckström.
A good comparable would be Mats Sundin.

Michkov is hard to judge as well as the current status of the KHL. Why do you think he's better than Fantilli/Carlsson?

 

[waitin425]

Carlsson was a legit 1C in the SHL to end the season. I don't think he's close to Bedard but he's probably the best swedish prospect since Dahlin and before him Nicklas Bäckström.
A good comparable would be Mats Sundin.

Michkov is hard to judge as well as the current status of the KHL. Why do you think he's better than Fantilli/Carlsson?

Very hard to judge yes. From what I have seen highlight wise from his season in Sochi, he is still right there. The last time we saw him with his peers was the 2022 World Juniors. I watched both of Russia's games that tourney and obviously all of Bedard's. Michkov has the look and feel of an elite goal scoring winger in the NHL. He doesn't look all that far off of Bedard to me.

I admit the Russian "factor" on both the war front and uncertainty of coming over is a factor. I also admit this is based on my own personal very small sample size. But, from what I've seen, this is my opinion.

 

[HaNotsri]

Very hard to judge yes. From what I have seen highlight wise from his season in Sochi, he is still right there. The last time we saw him with his peers was the 2022 World Juniors. I watched both of Russia's games that tourney and obviously all of Bedard's. Michkov has the look and feel of an elite goal scoring winger in the NHL. He doesn't look all that far off of Bedard to me.

I admit the Russian "factor" on both the war front and uncertainty of coming over is a factor. I also admit this is based on my own personal very small sample size. But, from what I've seen, this is my opinion.

My simplified analysis is:
Do you want Kane/Ovechkin or Kopitar/Bergeron? All of them can win you cups. Michkov is the most gifted but I expect Carlsson to be elite in most parts of the game.

Crazy with a generational player and three elite guys in the same draft.

In regards to the talent gap I think Bedard can get you success almost on his own McDavid style but the others need some pieces around them to lift a team from the bottom.

 

[waitin425]

My simplified analysis is:
Do you want Kane/Ovechkin or Kopitar/Bergeron? All of them can win you cups. Michkov is the most gifted but I expect Carlsson to be elite in most parts of the game.

Crazy with a generational player and three elite guys in the same draft.

In regards to the talent gap I think Bedard can get you success almost on his own McDavid style but the others need some pieces around them to lift a team from the bottom.

Fair comparisons. I would be happy with any of the comparables above with Ovechkin and Kane being the top of these 4. Kopitar and Bergeron are nothing to sneeze at. I am praying Habs get lucky or Michkov drops. Wish we were in the Ducks position.

 

[Torts]

So, as most people know, Fantilli and Carlson are projected to go 2nd / 3rd in this year's draft.
As a Ducks fan, i thought i'd be happy with any of these 3 players. But i just watched the WJC U20 stats, and, in 7 games, Bedard has 24 points. Compared to the 5 pts of Fantilli or 6 by Carlson, the difference is huuuuge.

Is the gap really that big between Bedard and the other two, when it comes to the skill level? I mean, i knew Bedard was a generational player, #1 pick for sure, people were saying this for years now. But how much better is he than the other two?

There is a definite gap, don't get me wrong (even as a Michigan fan). Bedard is undeniably the best prospect available this year and in the past couple of years.

However, don't read too much into those WJC stats as a true comparison. 1. Small sample size in a short tournament and 2. Bedard was Canada's key player, on the ice in all key situations/powerplays. He had a tournament for the ages for sure but the gap in stats alone doesn't quite equal the gap in true skill and potential.

 

[BB88]

The gap is pretty clear between Bedard and those two. But somewhere in between those three is Michkov. That gap isn't as big as most people think.

Bedard
Michkov

Fantilli
Carlsson

I really don’t know if Michkov is somewhere in the between.

Fantilli has had one of the best ncaa years by draft player.
Carlsson has had one of the best SHL seasons by draft player.

Both players game should translate better into the NHL and both have clear size advantage

So if either are top5-8C’s in the league in their primes there’s pretty much nothing Michkov can do to be worth more than them/impact the game more

 

[UnSandvich]

Michkov is the best prospect coming out of Russia since Ovechkin & Malkin. If his name was Matty Mitchell and he was playing in the CHL or NCAA, this is looked at like 2015 with McDavid and Eichel, instead of like it is today with Bedard then everyone else.

 

[BB88]

Michkov is the best prospect coming out of Russia since Ovechkin & Malkin. If his name was Matty Mitchell and he was playing in the CHL or NCAA, this is looked at like 2015 with McDavid and Eichel, instead of like it is today with Bedard then everyone else.

If Eichel was winger it wouldn’t have been the same.

People just love to sleep on the seasons Fantilli& Carlsson had

 

[Vasilevskiy]

It's not sleeping on their season. Michkov had the best draft season ever in the KHL. We already had this debate in his thread.

If Eichel was winger it wouldn’t have been the same.

People just love to sleep on the seasons Fantilli& Carlsson had

 

[Castle8130]

When you produce at the level these 4 have, the gap isn't that significant. There is a gap between Bedard and the other 3, but it's still not that big. It wouldn't shock me if Bedard wasn't the best of these 4 in the future.

 

[HanSolo]

When I look at these guys I see it coming down not to who deserves to go where, but how their post draft development goes. I know that sounds lazy but all four of them had outstanding seasons in their respective league's and the difference in who will end up better is probably going to come down to how they are developed and the situation they find themselves in.

Bedard is probably starting with the best track to be a superstar in this league but all four of these guys look like they can be elite. As a Ducks fan, there has never been a better time to finish dead last, and I'm excited that they are guaranteed their pick of who is left at 3rd overall at worst.

 

[tomd]

My feeling is that if you are picking in the top 3 you don't need to reach for the uncertainty of Michkov. The real drama begins at pick #4.

 

[majormajor]

There is a big gap vs juniors but I think that most or all of that gap will disappear vs pros. All of the projectability factors are in favor of Fantilli and Carlsson. Both profile as complete 1Cs.

Bedard might end up on the wing, as he doesn't have the speed where you want him having to skate 200 ft every rush, there is an offense/ defense tradeoff there and you might want him starting higher on the wing so he can be more threatening. A 50 goal winger so pretty damn valuable, but the best 1Cs can be more valuable than that, and if all three are 90 or 100 pt guys then you might prefer the centers. I'm still taking Bedard but my point is that the gap isn't huge.

Michkov also has an advantage vs juniors but I don't see him projecting nearly as well vs pros. Players that small that don't have elite skating are always limited in what they can do.

 

[BB88]

It's not sleeping on their season. Michkov had the best draft season ever in the KHL. We already had this debate in his thread.

& we’ve talked about the quality of competition.

Russia has had trouble developing top end end picks during KHL era. Tarasenko held the previous record. While a good player he never hit superstar status

Fantilli& Carlsson have had some of the best seasons in their leagues as well and are much, much more well rounded and play more NHL style hockey

 

[Albatros]

Bedard is the best prospect at least since Crosby, Carlsson and Fantilli would be in the first overall discussion most other years and probably playing C both would go ahead of Slafkovský. Michkov has a high ceiling as well but is inevitably a distant fourth in this race. Still, rarely does the biggest loser of the draft lottery get that much potential as the consolation price.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Bedard is the best prospect at least since Crosby, Carlsson and Fantilli would be in the first overall discussion most other years and probably playing C both would go ahead of Slafkovský. Michkov has a high ceiling as well but is inevitably a distant fourth in this race. Still, rarely does the biggest loser of the draft lottery get that much potential as the consolation price.

Bedard is not a better prospect than McDavid. McDavid's speed alone puts him in a different tier.

 

[Albatros]

Bedard is not a better prospect than McDavid. McDavid's speed alone puts him in a different tier.

Well, that's subjective. But Bedard had the better numbers in junior hockey.

 

[BB88]

Bedard is not a better prospect than McDavid. McDavid's speed alone puts him in a different tier.

You could say that for Bedards shot/goal scoring as well

 

[Panthaz89]

Very hard to judge yes. From what I have seen highlight wise from his season in Sochi, he is still right there. The last time we saw him with his peers was the 2022 World Juniors. I watched both of Russia's games that tourney and obviously all of Bedard's. Michkov has the look and feel of an elite goal scoring winger in the NHL. He doesn't look all that far off of Bedard to me.

I admit the Russian "factor" on both the war front and uncertainty of coming over is a factor. I also admit this is based on my own personal very small sample size. But, from what I've seen, this is my opinion.

how exactly does an elite scoring winger compare to Bedard who is elite at everything offensively at Center? I think pretty much everyone picks the obvious choice the same reason GMs would pick Crosby over Ovechkin in heartbeat.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Bedard is not a better prospect than McDavid. McDavid's speed alone puts him in a different tier.

He might not turn out to be a better nhl player than McDavid but he’s definitely a better prospect

 

[Rabid Ranger]

He might not turn out to be a better nhl player than McDavid but he’s definitely a better prospect

I don't agree.

 

[QJL]

I’ll put it this way…

I would trade both Fantilli and Carlsson together for Michkov.

I would trade Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov for Bedard.

 

[majormajor]

I’ll put it this way…

I would trade both Fantilli and Carlsson together for Michkov.

I would trade Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov for Bedard.

This post will be a fun one to look back on in a few years.