First, Shanahan needs to go. Ultimately, the players are the most responsible, but 11 years is just too big a sample size to allow him to be the one to oversee any organizational shift, especially after being so stubborn about the core. Not to defend Dubas and the mistakes he made here, but his musing about the need for potential change after 2023 and the lack of it when he left puts that decision entirely on Shanahan.
Second, while that's the hard part. I do think Marner is walking. I just don't see any scenario where you can run it back, especially at the number he'd command to stay, even if he wanted to.But where you go from there is difficult. He's an elite two-way player who just put up 100 points. The Leafs have actually spent years sacrificing scoring depth to try and "playoff ready" their team. They've made some wrong choices and brought in guys past their sell-by date at times, but they have tried to bring in heavier guys or guys with more grit. So, you need to be incredibly careful in thinking bringing in a 55 point guy with jam is really a solution.Tavares is trickier. You're getting him at less than he's making now...but how much less? And do you want to buy into the back half of his 30s? The only real reason you'd contemplate anything other than an extremely team friendly deal is that your centre depth is terrible, but again, are you paying for his 2024 season and getting a 2026 version? I'd be very hesitant. The best comparison is probably Stamkos in that, yeah, he wants to stay, would take a haircut, but probably not a buzzcut and some team is going to offer multiple years at a pretty uncomfortable number if you're the Leafs.
It's going to be a fascinating offseason where big choices will have to be made. No earthly clue what they'll do, but the fantasy booking offseason from some is far from a guarantee and could exacerbate a big weakness of the team.