The Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat trade has still not been beat

[HanSolo]

If we're gonna start butterflying effecting every trade...

It's been done multiple times in this thread already. But both things can be true. It was asset mismanagement, but Pacioretty's place on the team informed trades Vegas did and didn't make because of his slot as, effectively, a top line winger with his cap hit also being a consideration. If they never made that trade Vegas could very well have looked like a much different team in 2023 and today.

 

[HanSolo]

McDonagh for Gomez
Pacioretty for Tatar+Suzuki+2nd
Kulak for 2nd (Lane Hutson)
Monahan for 1st (CGY)
Lehkonen for Barron + 2nd

Are the most lopsided trades in recent Habs history

I don't really like the argument that scouts getting a hit on a draft pick suddenly makes a trade lopsided. Yeah you can look at that as Kulak for Hutson, but if your scouts insisted on picking Mikko Matikka of ECHL fame instead, would it still be a lopsided trade? You're not the only one making that argument, tbf, you're just the most recent one.

 

[gtrower]

Seems kind of ridiculous to analyze that far. Getting too far into the "what-ifs" now.

They had $7.6m tied up in Burakovsky, Hagelin, Connolly and Jaskin. I think they could have easily fit Forsberg in, and probably convinced him to take a bit of a discount, or at least sign him on a two-year contract instead of a six, as to not impact depth.

Furthermore, they could have even explored trading him after he broke out, and gotten a significant haul.

Forsberg "leading" Nashville to the cup has nothing to do with this, as no singular player leads a team to a cup. Not even McDavid can, though, Forsberg had proven to be a quality producer in the playoffs the two years prior to WSH winning the cup. Maybe they win it even earlier with him in the lineup?

I get it that the Caps are happy at the end of the day because they won the cup. That is very fair. However, they still traded away a franchise player that's probably going to hit 1200 games played and 1000 career points, for less than 30 pts. This we know concretely as fact.

That’s all great and doesn’t really refute anything I said. The Caps knew they were trading a high ceiling prospect for a playoff rental. That’s not “incredibly poor” asset evaluation. That’s a team that took a risk to win immediately. This is not a new thing in the NHL. It happens every year and both sides know what they’re doing.

And again listing the post-trade stats for both players is just a really naive way of evaluating a trade in a salary-capped league with two players on opposite ends of their career.

 

[qcal1427]

This gets so overblown and it drives me crazy.

Martin Erat was a known quantity - a consistent ~20 goal, 50-60 point guy for a decade. Filip Forsberg was a very good prospect, but those don't always pan out. Even still, it took Forsberg 8 seasons to finally bust out and eclipse what Erat's average career numbers were - and here we are with his 11th season winding down, and Forsberg is a 70 point guy again.

This is a run-of-the-mill deadline deal that didn't work out amazingly for Washington. End of. Filip Forsberg is not a superstar, and this trade was not a travesty. Let it go people.

Exactly. If the Toronto first going to Philly turns into a career 70 point guy does that become the worst trade of all time??? Trust me it was still bad at the time (which is the only time deals can be accurately judged!) but it wasn't catastrophic.

 

[TheBeard]

It's been done multiple times in this thread already. But both things can be true. It was asset mismanagement, but Pacioretty's place on the team informed trades Vegas did and didn't make because of his slot as, effectively, a top line winger with his cap hit also being a consideration. If they never made that trade Vegas could very well have looked like a much different team in 2023 and today.

Yeah, you can’t evaluate trades like that. The Thornton trade from Boston to San Jose is one of the most lopsided in hockey history yet it’s like saying because Boston won the cup four years later so because of that they won the trade.

 

[SensontheRush]

That’s all great and doesn’t really refute anything I said. The Caps knew they were trading a high ceiling prospect for a playoff rental. That’s not “incredibly poor” asset evaluation. That’s a team that took a risk to win immediately. This is not a new thing in the NHL. It happens every year and both sides know what they’re doing.

And again listing the post-trade stats for both players is just a really naive way of evaluating a trade in a salary-capped league with two players on opposite ends of their career.

Yes, trading a high ceiling prospect for an awful playoff rental is "incredibly poor" asset evaluation. That's how it works haha. They got 4 games with 0 points in the playoffs out of him. Incredibly poor is generous.

It's 100x more naive to argue a trade for a shit player that didn't deliver what was expected of him was in any way shape or form a reasonable trade. This is kind of bananas.

The team took a risk, a dumb risk at the time, and a risk that has become more and more ridiculous over time.

 

[gtrower]

Yes, trading a high ceiling prospect for an awful playoff rental is "incredibly poor" asset evaluation. That's how it works haha. They got 4 games with 0 points in the playoffs out of him. Incredibly poor is generous.

It's 100x more naive to argue a trade for a shit player that didn't deliver what was expected of him was in any way shape or form a reasonable trade. This is kind of bananas.

The team took a risk, a dumb risk at the time, and a risk that has become more and more ridiculous over time.

You seem to be arguing with yourself here. I didn’t say it was a good trade. I wasn’t a fan of it at the time. I’m saying it’s silly to apply a “terrible decision making” label after the fact. And trading a high ceiling prospect isn’t “incredibly poor asset evaluation.” The Caps knew he was good - he was the jewel of the prospect pool. It’s was a high risk move that didn’t work out.

And I don’t know how many times you need to hear that post-trade career stats for a prospect / vet rental trade in a salary cap league is just an asinine way of evaluating a trade.

But I’ll bow out after this one. I can only repeat the same point so many times before it feels like spamming.

 

[Frobbo]

Phil Esposito, Fred Stanfield and Ken Hodge to Boston for Gilles Marotte, Pit Martin and Jack Norris to Chicago. Sheer volume of one sidedness.

 

[AvroArrow]

Exactly. If the Toronto first going to Philly turns into a career 70 point guy does that become the worst trade of all time??? Trust me it was still bad at the time (which is the only time deals can be accurately judged!) but it wasn't catastrophic.

Can't be worse than trading away the pick that turned into Scott Niedermayer for Tom Kurvers who did absolutely f***ing nothing.