The false opportunity cost of 11.6

[PuckMunchkin]

It’s funny, my 15 year old told my 13 year old that deking is 80-100% legs so stop worrying about your hands so much (last week). So can definitely see the problem.

Wouldn’t it make sense to LTIR Petey and go buy $15-20m worth of help on the open market?

It would to me.

 

[Tv9924]

What frustrates me with this Pettersson value argument is the subtle gaslighting that goes on. If we say he is a 100 point player enough, everyone will just accept that he is. Does one season make him a 100 point player? In my opinion, no. Does he have potential to put up 100 pts per season consistently, possibly. I believe he has the talent. But at 26 years old he would have to commit to that goal and do the things necessary to make it happen. I just haven't seen that yet.

For context here are the games played and points in his 7 year career:

71g-66pts
68-66
26-21
80-68
80-102
82-89
48-33 (56 point pace over 82 games)

His career average is 80 points over 82 games.

I said this in another thread, aside from a 16 month stretch between Oct 2022 and January 2024, he has been closer to a 75 point per season player. I know that's cherry picking a little but it is telling. It means he has the potential to be 100 point player. The other 5-6 years says he hasn't established that yet.

A PPG #1 center who provides elite defence is an extremely valuable player, and if petey can get back to that level next year after a healthy offseason (I think he can) he would be well worth his $11.6m contract. Trading him now would be selling him at an absolute low and permanently lower the ceiling of this team.

 

[pitseleh]

I said this in another thread, aside from a 16 month stretch between Oct 2022 and January 2024, he has been closer to a 75 point per season player. I know that's cherry picking a little but it is telling. It means he has the potential to be 100 point player. The other 5-6 years says he hasn't established that yet.

I fully agree. The drop off in play is more explicable if you consider him a 75-80 point player rather than a 90-100 point player.

…

Went back and watched Pettersson’s goals for 22/23 and 23/24. A few observations:

- he is unquestionably quicker, particularly when it comes to acceleration.

- outside of SH/OT, he didn’t score much off the rush.

- the vast majority of his goals came when he was playing off the puck, and a teammate found him in open space or he got a tip in. Largely Kuzemenko (and Mikheyev in 22/23) at even strength, Miller on the PP, and Hughes at both. The ones where Pettersson creates a chance using his speed / stick handling stick out in my memory but weren’t common.

I’m not sure the wingers on the team, other than maybe Hoglander or Joshua, can bring that type of support for him again at even strength. And he won’t have Miller to spread the ice out and tee him up for chances in the same way as he has.

 

[iceburg]

OK. Had to redo because Panarin's numbers were wrong. I was a little surprised to see he was even with Barkov and Eichel. Not surpised about Tavares because he peaked a couple of years ago.

 

[Ernie]

What frustrates me with this Pettersson value argument is the subtle gaslighting that goes on. If we say he is a 100 point player enough, everyone will just accept that he is. Does one season make him a 100 point player? In my opinion, no. Does he have potential to put up 100 pts per season consistently, possibly. I believe he has the talent. But at 26 years old he would have to commit to that goal and do the things necessary to make it happen. I just haven't seen that yet.

For context here are the games played and points in his 7 year career:

71g-66pts
68-66
26-21
80-68
80-102
82-89
48-33 (56 point pace over 82 games)

His career average is 80 points over 82 games.

I said this in another thread, aside from a 16 month stretch between Oct 2022 and January 2024, he has been closer to a 75 point per season player. I know that's cherry picking a little but it is telling. It means he has the potential to be 100 point player. The other 5-6 years says he hasn't established that yet.

I think this is a fair point - but it's also questionable why Pettersson has basically plateaued since his rookie season. It looked like he was levelling up as you would expect for a player entering their prime and got paid because of it.

 

[Orr4Norris]

Halford and Brough speculating it is a case of the yips was interesting. That explanation does fit and explains the sharp drop off. Also, the contract negotiations could have been the trigger. That is a lot of extra pressure

 

[iceburg]

I think this is a fair point - but it's also questionable why Pettersson has basically plateaued since his rookie season. It looked like he was levelling up as you would expect for a player entering their prime and got paid because of it.

I agree it looked like he was leveling up, which I think is what frustrates a lot of people. He has actually even regressed over the last year.

 

[Glennis the Menace]

Halford and Brough speculating it is a case of the yips was interesting. That explanation does fit and explains the sharp drop off. Also, the contract negotiations could have been the trigger. That is a lot of extra pressure

For anyone who's unfamiliar, 'the yips' is basically a psychomuscular disorder where you suddenly and inexplicably lose the ability to perform routine psychomotor motions in a sport. I believe golf, baseball (pitchers especially), and gymnastics (they call it the 'twisties', this is what took Simone Biles out of the 2020 Olympics) have the most well-documented cases of these. I didn't really expect to hear it in hockey, but I guess you can get it with anything repetitive and at a high level.

I don't know if that's what's ailing Pettersson, if it is he should be seeking help. It's not something you just "get over", it's difficult to recover from (if you can at all) and it's not well studied.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

View attachment 974001

OK. Had to redo because Panarin's numbers were wrong. I was a little surprised to see he was even with Barkov and Eichel. Not surpised about Tavares because he peaked a couple of years ago.

I don't even understand the point of this graph?
Who really cares what a players PPG were early in their career
PPG since they signed that big deal, or PPG this year would make sense

 

[CanuckPirate]

Obviously the Canucks need him to be a center, long term, but if they can add a top 6 center, maybe spending some time on the wing would do him good. Just focus on scoring.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Should we make a separate thread where all the EP40 hate goes?

 

[B-rock]

A PPG #1 center who provides elite defence is an extremely valuable player, and if petey can get back to that level next year after a healthy offseason (I think he can) he would be well worth his $11.6m contract. Trading him now would be selling him at an absolute low and permanently lower the ceiling of this team.

What’s the healthy offseason? How is this offseason different than last offseason? If there is a mysterious injury, how do we know it will heal this offseason? Why didn’t it heal last offseason? How many more seasons do you wait for this ailment to go away?

The issue is you’re on the hook for his 11M with a NTC starting July. It’s a big risk.

He’s not helping the team now. Didn’t help down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. What says he’ll magically fix his supposed injury over this offseason when it wasn’t fixed last offseason?

 

[Ernie]

I fully agree. The drop off in play is more explicable if you consider him a 75-80 point player rather than a 90-100 point player.

…

Went back and watched Pettersson’s goals for 22/23 and 23/24. A few observations:

- he is unquestionably quicker, particularly when it comes to acceleration.

- outside of SH/OT, he didn’t score much off the rush.

- the vast majority of his goals came when he was playing off the puck, and a teammate found him in open space or he got a tip in. Largely Kuzemenko (and Mikheyev in 22/23) at even strength, Miller on the PP, and Hughes at both. The ones where Pettersson creates a chance using his speed / stick handling stick out in my memory but weren’t common.

I’m not sure the wingers on the team, other than maybe Hoglander or Joshua, can bring that type of support for him again at even strength. And he won’t have Miller to spread the ice out and tee him up for chances in the same way as he has.

Would you say he's having problems getting separation?

I wonder if a lot of us are remembering what he was like in his first couple of seasons when he would attack the zone, but then extrapolated that into his high scoring seasons when he was playing East / West with Kuzmenko for the most part.

 

[iceburg]

I don't even understand the point of this graph?
Who really cares what a players PPG were early in their career
PPG since they signed that big deal, or PPG this year would make sense

Not sure you will care but past performance predicting future performance is what gets them the big deal. Whether they live up to the deal after signed is a different question.

 

[Jyrki21]

Halford and Brough speculating it is a case of the yips was interesting. That explanation does fit and explains the sharp drop off. Also, the contract negotiations could have been the trigger. That is a lot of extra pressure

I tend to believe that whatever else is going on, he still has to have a physical ailment -- the loss of speed is just too glaring. Getting the yips over a singular, specialist motion that you perform in isolation with everyone watching -- a golf swing, free throws, placekicking, pitching in baseball -- is one thing, but you suddenly can't... skate fast? It seems like more of a stretch.

A friend of mine floated a theory that I'm wondering about now. It was clear Pettersson really did not want to sign his contract during the season last year (whether that was because he was uncomfortable with Miller there, or was planning to ask for a trade, or whatever). We all kind of thought the rumored trade to Carolina is what pushed him to sign, but my friend wondered this: what if he realized he had messed up his knee (or something else physical), so he felt compelled to put pen to paper right away to maximize his value before a likely decline happened?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Seriously.

How about we make a separate EP40 hate thread so those inclined to do so can vent there and the rest of the forum can be used to discuss different aspects of the Vancouver Canucks?

 

[Bobby9]

Seriously.

How about we make a separate EP40 hate thread so those inclined to do so can vent there and the rest of the forum can be used to discuss different aspects of the Vancouver Canucks?

Whats it matter? Youll end up in that thread too. Might as well just stay in one thread together.

 

[Ernie]

Whats it matter? Youll end up in that thread too. Might as well just stay in one thread together.

I would love a separate thread where all the hysterical Pettersson haters can congregate. I would never look at it.

I guess we could call it the "Pettersson Vent Thread" and every time you want to hammer out an angry zero value post, that's your place!

 

[arttk]

I think this is a fair point - but it's also questionable why Pettersson has basically plateaued since his rookie season. It looked like he was levelling up as you would expect for a player entering their prime and got paid because of it.

uhhhh .. he hit 100 points like a year and half ago and was on 100+ points pace before his injury last season. You can frame it as, what is causing him to drop off in the past year but he has not plateaued since his rookie season.

 

[pitseleh]

Would you say he's having problems getting separation?

I think now definitely when it comes to creating space for himself. He had a handful of goals where his quickness/stickhandling opened up the space he needed to score.

But most of the goals were just him finding the holes in the defence and being fed the puck, or perching in front of the net. The former weren’t always high danger spots but with his shot he could beat goalies anyway. But it depended on his linemates doing the board work and threading passes through the defence to him. Can see how the current system / linemates isn’t helping at even strength.

 

[Ernie]

uhhhh .. he hit 100 points like a year and half ago and was on 100+ points pace before his injury last season. You can frame it as, what is causing him to drop off in the past year but he has not plateaued since his rookie season.

I was responding to the post I quoted that hypothesized that he was actually a point per game player and that his 100 point season was an anomaly. If that's true, then I said that had plateaued since his rookie season, which is also not great. I don't necessarily agree with the premise.

 

[Ernie]

I think now definitely when it comes to creating space for himself. He had a handful of goals where his quickness/stickhandling opened up the space he needed to score.

But most of the goals were just him finding the holes in the defence and being fed the puck, or perching in front of the net. The former weren’t always high danger spots but with his shot he could beat goalies anyway. But it depended on his linemates doing the board work and threading passes through the defence to him. Can see how the current system / linemates isn’t helping at even strength.

I wonder if "current system" is the right way to look at it.

He just seems to do best when the play is free flowing and unstructured, like with Boudreau and most of the Travis Green years. Unfortunately, no successful team plays that way.

The frustrating thing is that his elite defensive instincts allow him to control play within a free flowing system. He drove elite results with Kuzmenko. So what's good for him is bad for the rest of the team, and vice versa. You wonder how he would have developed if he'd come into the league on a team with more structure.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

But most of the goals were just him finding the holes in the defence and being fed the puck, or perching in front of the net. The former weren’t always high danger spots but with his shot he could beat goalies anyway. But it depended on his linemates doing the board work and threading passes through the defence to him. Can see how the current system / linemates isn’t helping at even strength.

DING DING DING

Many have a hugely inaccurate idea of what EP was during his big season. He was not some superstar blasting 1 timers and dominating play. It was largely a paper tiger season, loaded with puck luck, insane shooting %'s at ES and SH.

He was still awful on the PP, refusing to shoot, bad at entries, and would skate into coverage just to fall down and cough up the puck. His issues today, were still very apparent then, and in years before.

Watching all of EP's goals, it's not hard to notice where they all went. He had a Sedin like run with Kuz for about 1.25 seasons, who was strong enough to protect the puck for that extra second, and would always look to make the play to EP.

Miller is the only other guy he really meshed with.

 

[Bobby9]

 

[Curm]

He needs a Bruce Boudreau speech.

Yes, positive affirmations!

"Petey, you're good enough, you're smart enough, and doggone it, people like you."