The false opportunity cost of 11.6

[ChilliBilly]

To quote Willy S. "much ado about nothing".

EP's value is very low right now. Give him a summer to get back into shape. Take time off if he is nursing an injury.

If they determine, using professionals, that he is not likely to return to form due to some chronic problem, you live with it and decide the best path forward.

If someone makes an offer that is clearly an overpayment, jump at it.

 

[Brookbank]

To quote Willy S. "much ado about nothing".

EP's value is very low right now. Give him a summer to get back into shape. Take time off if he is nursing an injury.

If they determine, using professionals, that he is not likely to return to form due to some chronic problem, you live with it and decide the best path forward.

If someone makes an offer that is clearly an overpayment, jump at it.

It is unlikely to be any kind of chronic problem. He's in a slump. He'll get out of it. William Nylander had 7 goals in 55 games in 2018/19.

What would a so called overpayment for Petterson even look like ? A glorified version of the Miller trade is not an overpayment. But I could see ppl thinking it is

 

[Bobby9]

Do we think he will hit 50 points this year?

 

[ChilliBilly]

It is unlikely to be any kind of chronic problem. He's in a slump. He'll get out of it. William Nylander had 7 goals in 55 games in 2018/19.

What would a so called overpayment for Petterson even look like ? A glorified version of the Miller trade is not an overpayment. But I could see ppl thinking it is

Much more than the Miller trade. Something worth more than what we would get for a healthy Petey right now. Like if he was on pace for 120 points.

 

[arttk]

Would you trade EP40 for Marner @ $13M x 8 years?

or you know .. trade a 3rd rounder for his rights if the Leafs aren't extending him and then try to get first dibs at signing him.

 

[nowhereman]

My take on this is obviously canucks medical staff and management don’t respect tendinitis as an injury, which made Petterson play through the pain for half the year. Which affected his offseason and is still in pain sometimes. He said this before the season started. Note that this injury most common in NBA takes a year to recover from.“with rest”

As to evidence that they don’t respect it Tochet said it’s little tendinitis it’s nothing. Note that petey lost his skating speed and shot velocity by 50% last year and that injury just minor thing? Give me a break, Hughes was day to day they made him play a game then he was injured again for 5 games. Really honest canucks management putting points in standings vs health of players.

I keep hearing about this study that claims it takes an NBA player a year to recover from patellar tendinitis but I'm not sure where this is coming from. The study I read from TL Jildeh et al noted that almost half of NBA players RTP in less than 10 days and the mean RTP is 2 months. A year long recovery would appear to be an outlier and wouldn't just be considered minor/"fine", as Pettersson described his injury at the beginning of this season.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I keep hearing about this study that claims it takes an NBA player a year to recover from patellar tendinitis but I'm not sure where this is coming from. The study I read from TL Jildeh et al noted that almost half of NBA players RTP in less than 10 days and the mean RTP is 2 months. A year long recovery would appear to be an outlier and wouldn't just be considered minor/"fine", as Pettersson described his injury at the beginning of this season.

Surely you dont honestly think this is something you can use as evidence. Just using this dishonest card becase it fits your agenda.

 

[IComeInPeace]

Do we think he will hit 50 points this year?

Over the last 20 games he has 7 points. If he keeps up that pace up over the next 29 games he finishes with 43 points in 76 games.

We all hoped/expected his game would round into form after the miserable start to the season.
Somehow, he got even worse.

...but the good news is he does appear to be rounding into form since JTM was traded away.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Do we think he will hit 50 points this year?

Far more interesting question is do we think he will rebound for next season.

 

[Raistlin]

after watching him give up shot after shot in last game's 5 on 3. they should just shut him down for his tendonitis to heal, its like hes taking someone's opportunity right now on the PP, no one even challenges his shot anymore, management should obviously have a handle on what his deal is, or they dont keep him over Miller. I dont get why teams ask the player if they should sit or not? like last year's Makar, who obviously was hurt, they still truck these star players out game after game.

 

[604]

or you know .. trade a 3rd rounder for his rights if the Leafs aren't extending him and then try to get first dibs at signing him.

Isn’t this thread about the opportunity cost of $11.5m and saying what could you do with that money?

So asking if you would give up Petey + $2m for Marner kind of makes sense.

As a means of preventing every other conceivable bad trade from happening, yes. But I would still just keep him

So your answer is no. You would just keep Petey. Correct?

 

[arttk]

Isn’t this thread about the opportunity cost of $11.5m and saying what could you do with that money?

So asking if you would give up Petey + $2m for Marner kind of makes sense.

The FALSE opportunity cost of 11.6M. That’s the point, we don’t need to free up cap to sign a guy like Marner if he’s willing to come in UFA or if we get first dibs by sending a pick over.

 

[F A N]

I think the opportunity cost comes from the ability to acquire/have depth. We could have traded Petey for assets and use the cap space for a ~70 point for ~$8M and the rest on upgrading other spots such as the defence or better goaltending. All else being equal, if you're willing to spend $3.6M extra on a defenseman or a goalie you're generally getting quite a bit higher quality. With a rising cap, you're probably looking at $3.5M-$4M for a guy you believe to be a good #5 with some top 4 upside (e.g. Carson Soucy type). Add $3.6M extra and you're getting a reliable top 4 Dman. Similarly (assuming you have one or can acquire one) you can probably get an elite goalie signed for ~$8.25M AAV. $4.65M will get you a goalie signed for mostly his RFA years or a mid-range starter.

 

[604]

The FALSE opportunity cost of 11.6M. That’s the point, we don’t need to free up cap to sign a guy like Marner if he’s willing to come in UFA or if we get first dibs by sending a pick over.

Build a roster with Petey still on it and a $13.5m guy for next season. You need to shed salary to do that (likely by not resigning Boeser or losing another pair pieces like Joshua and Suter).

It’s not a FALSE opportunity. It’s hard to keep Petey and pickup a guy like Marner without losing somewhere else on the roster.

 

[Bobby9]

Far more interesting question is do we think he will rebound for next season.

If he doesn’t crack 50 points this year I hope we don’t have the opportunity to find out

 

[arttk]

Build a roster with Petey still on it and a $13.5m guy for next season. You need to shed salary to do that (likely by not resigning Boeser or losing another pair pieces like Joshua and Suter).

It’s not a FALSE opportunity. It’s hard to keep Petey and pickup a guy like Marner without losing somewhere else on the roster.

You could give Rantanen 14.5 and still have 4M to sign a 3rd line C and a backup.
If soucy is a luxury on the 3rd pair we can also trade him away and replace him with a Forbort for like 1.5 and have 5.7M to use.
Hell we can move Raty to be the 4C and Bluegar up and then spend like 5M on a scoring forward and bump Lekk down or something.

 

[604]

You could give Rantanen 14.5 and still have 4M to sign a 3rd line C and a backup.
If soucy is a luxury on the 3rd pair we can also trade him away and replace him with a Forbort for like 1.5 and have 5.7M to use.
Hell we can move Raty to be the 4C and Bluegar up and then spend like 5M on a scoring forward and bump Lekk down or something.

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Yeah, so you got rid of Boeser instead of Petey to add Rants and created a roster with no spare players. (I mean we all hope Lekker is a bonafied top line player next year but that is very much aspirational)

Which is more or less what I’m saying. You can add a top player but need to get rid of a top player to do it.

Therefore, if Petey isn’t playing like a top player, there is an opportunity cost to keeping him.

 

[arttk]

Yeah, so you got rid of Boeser instead of Petey to add Rants and created a roster with no spare players.

Which is more or less what I’m saying. You can add a top player but need to get rid of a top player to do it.

Therefore, if Petey isn’t playing like a top player, there is an opportunity cost to keeping him.

well not keeping Boeser is more of a strategic decision to make the team faster.
Also if you are dead set on extending Boeser, yeah you can do that, just trade Hog, unless you feel like we really really need to spend 3M on a LW on the 4th line and the team will fall apart if we don’t have him there.

 

[AzNightmare]

It only doesn't make sense if you think every injury benefits from 2 weeks of rest.

No injury gets better by playing more, which is the alternative that you're implying. So if every injury doesn't benefit from 2 weeks of rest, means you think some injuries benefit from 2 weeks of playing. OK...

 

[arttk]

No injury gets better by playing more, which is the alternative that you're implying. So if every injury doesn't benefit from 2 weeks of rest, means you think some injuries benefit from 2 weeks of playing. OK...

Remember the time you twist your ankle and your doctor tells you to run more to help it heal.

 

[ephmrl]

Do we think he will hit 50 points this year?

I think he'll have a slight uptick in his production down the stretch, similar to his second half of 21-22, and end up around 55-60 points.

 

[poler]

after watching him give up shot after shot in last game's 5 on 3. they should just shut him down for his tendonitis to heal, its like hes taking someone's opportunity right now on the PP, no one even challenges his shot anymore, management should obviously have a handle on what his deal is, or they dont keep him over Miller. I dont get why teams ask the player if they should sit or not? like last year's Makar, who obviously was hurt, they still truck these star players out game after game.

The problem is Canucks management don’t count tendinitis as an injury according to them.