Player Discussion: The Elvis Thread

[Ice9]

We don’t even know IF this organization will want to pay some of these guys their future asking price so keeping a fairly responsible eye I’m gonna say they need to live for today and not work in fear about things that may or may not come about. Cap will rise consistently. Will CBJ pay willingly?

Too much distraction has swirled around him. Keep a clear vision for the team and move on.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

there may be perceived risk to buying out elvis + betting on jet, but i don't think they need to go hunting for a star in net. they can get a reasonably-priced goalie like forsberg or a budget option like lyon/vladar and end up with overall cost efficiency in net even factoring in dead money for elvis.

Wait is someone actually making a case to get Anton Forsberg back in the CBJ organization?

It would be cost efficiency now and next year but years 3 and 4 of the buyout is where it hurts when his contract would be off the books and some players will be getting paid significant pay upgrades by then.

We've got 40 million to spend without buying him out right now. I'm not sure cost efficiency is that big of a concern that we are going to need that extra million dollars against the cap this year and make the 1.6 hit in years 3 and 4 hurt more.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Wait is someone actually making a case to get Anton Forsberg back in the CBJ organization?

yes. he’s a hell of a lot better than elvis. he’s been away from the org for a decade lol he’s not still a prospect.

It would be cost efficiency now and next year but years 3 and 4 of the buyout is where it hurts when his contract would be off the books and some players will be getting paid significant pay upgrades by then.

the team makes millions on ticket sales, merch, concessions and additional revenue streams whenever they host a playoff game.

playoff games also represent learning opportunities for the young players and the FO, since it shows them what they need to tweak to win a cup.

buying elvis out this summer means they can push for the playoffs the next two years. the buyout cost in years 3-4 won’t inhibit them, it’s a minimal cost.

We've got 40 million to spend without buying him out right now. I'm not sure cost efficiency is that big of a concern that we are going to need that extra million dollars against the cap this year and make the 1.6 hit in years 3 and 4 hurt more.

$1.6 million when the cap is over 110 million doesn’t hurt at all, actually.

in the short term it’s more about maximizing the contributions from both of the goalie slots on the roster. replacing elvis is the best lever to pull to find more wins, and buying him out is the most cost-effective way to do that, both financially and in asset cost.

 

[Nanabijou]

I think Porty has a way of allowing people here create the story themselves with a random open ended sentence that never goes into detail. His in depth reporting is great but people pull out one broad sentence where people create their own novel in their head. When it comes to Elvis he's always planted these "little seeds" that have gotten people making up their own opinions and stories in their head and continued this narrative.

Case in point was the passing sentence about how they'd love to upgrade in goal even though nobody would say so in his last story...

Regardless of whether you agree CBJ needs to move on from Elvis (I do), I agree with your point. Porty does some good work but stuff like this is frustrating. If you are hearing that they are going to move on, then say so. If you don't have something to report, then don't mention anything. Saying "I get the sense even though everyone is coy" is a copout.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

yes. he’s a hell of a lot better than elvis. he’s been away from the org for a decade lol he’s not still a prospect.

the team makes millions on ticket sales, merch, concessions and additional revenue streams whenever they host a playoff game.

playoff games also represent learning opportunities for the young players and the FO, since it shows them what they need to tweak to win a cup.

buying elvis out this summer means they can push for the playoffs the next two years. the buyout cost in years 3-4 won’t inhibit them, it’s a minimal cost.


$1.6 million when the cap is over 110 million doesn’t hurt at all, actually.

in the short term it’s more about maximizing the contributions from both of the goalie slots on the roster. replacing elvis is the best lever to pull to find more wins, and buying him out is the most cost-effective way to do that, both financially and in asset cost.

It comes to the question of saving 1 million in a cap hit this year is worth having that 1.6 count against you in a potential 3rd and 4th year when they team should be spending close to or at the cap and being a serious contender.

If you are budgeting for the playoff game income on a team that is still not guaranteed to make the playoffs it is not a smart business decision. If you are Toronto, Carolina, Colorado, or Tampa who are basically in the playoffs every year you can build a few playoffs games into your bottom line forecast. But Columbus who hasn't made the playoffs since 2020 should not build such income into a forecast for the next year. It should be an added bonus if accomplished.

We "SHOULD" make the playoffs next year if appropriate offseason changes all across the roster are made. It IS STILL possible if Elvis is still on the team with Jet. However, it is also not guaranteed we make the playoffs even if Elvis is moved. We aren't the only team trying to get better.

 

[koteka]

However, it is also not guaranteed we make the playoffs even if Elvis is moved. We aren't the only team trying to get better.

6 teams I think will make the playoffs (barring injuries, etc.) - Washington, Florida, Carolina, New Jersey, Toronto, and Tampa

3 teams I don’t think will make the playoffs - Flyers, Bruins, Islanders

2 teams that I doubt will make the playoffs but still have talent and might shock everyone - Penguins, Buffalo

5 teams likely battling for 2 spots - CBJ, Ottawa, Montreal, Rangers, Detroit

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It comes to the question of saving 1 million in a cap hit this year is worth having that 1.6 count against you in a potential 3rd and 4th year when they team should be spending close to or at the cap and being a serious contender.

i really, really think you are overstating how impactful $1.6m is during years when the cap will be in the neighborhood of $110 million.

1. it is a negligible amount of the salary cap
2. the cap is calculated on a daily basis, so there are a ton of ways to eke out space if they do spend that close to the upper limit
3. they have a deep enough pipeline that they’ll have multiple guys on ELCs in the lineup in those years

If you are budgeting for the playoff game income on a team that is still not guaranteed to make the playoffs it is not a smart business decision.

that’s not what i am saying at all.

i am saying that there are still revenue and cost considerations for ownership.

buying out elvis gets them out of a contract at 2/3rds the remaining cash cost + gives them an opportunity to improve in net, which raises their odds of making the playoffs and thus securing millions in additional profits.

i am not saying “operate under the assumption that they will have playoff revenue” — i am saying they should operate with a goal of making the playoffs, as this significantly helps the bottom line.

However, it is also not guaranteed we make the playoffs even if Elvis is moved. We aren't the only team trying to get better.

of the 70-something goalies who played 10+ games last year he is in the bottom 15 or so. he is a poor backup, let alone a starter.

moving him doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. who cares? the version of this team most likely to make the playoffs is one with significantly improved goaltending over last season.

that means getting rid of elvis improves their chances to make the postseason. this isn’t rocket science.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

i really, really think you are overstating how impactful $1.6m is during years when the cap will be in the neighborhood of $110 million.

1. it is a negligible amount of the salary cap

Sure Its not our money to spend. I'm sure the management thinks not having 1.6 million to spend those years is a bigger deal than fans do.

1. the cap is calculated on a daily basis, so there are a ton of ways to eke out space if they do spend that close to the upper limit

Counterpoint. We have lots of young players due contracts the next couple of years and their agents are going to want to get them paid. As caps go up, so do contract demands. I'd feel much better about this scenario if we weren't stuck paying Severson until the end of time

1. they have a deep enough pipeline that they’ll have multiple guys on ELCs in the lineup in those years

Maybe. current players will no longer be on ELC by that time. We "hope" the current recent draftees will be contributing players by then.

that’s not what i am saying at all.

i am saying that there are still revenue and cost considerations for ownership.

buying out elvis gets them out of a contract at 2/3rds the remaining cash cost + gives them an opportunity to improve in net, which raises their odds of making the playoffs and thus securing millions in additional profits.

I'm not opposed to upgrading but it needs to be an actual upgrade and not just "well this guy isn't Elvis" I frankly don't see those guys available in the market right now

i am not saying “operate under the assumption that they will have playoff revenue” — i am saying they should operate with a goal of making the playoffs, as this significantly helps the bottom line.


of the 70-something goalies who played 10+ games last year he is in the bottom 15 or so. he is a poor backup, let alone a starter.

He was overworked in a few situations because of zero trust in Tarasov. he did have stretches where he played well and I still believe our overall defense was poorly constructed. This team was bottom 5 in goals allowed this season and made the 8th most saves across all goaltenders. We allowed an average of 30 shots on goal allowed per game. Carolina averaged 5 less shots allowed to lead the league in that stat.

Not excusing some poor play but goalies didn't get a lot of help. Jet may very well be better but we also still only have a small NHL sample size on him. People thought Tarasov was going to be the savior a year or 2 ago as well.

moving him doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. who cares? the version of this team most likely to make the playoffs is one with significantly improved goaltending over last season.

that means getting rid of elvis improves their chances to make the postseason. this isn’t rocket science.

And this point become moot if just 1 game went differently. I don't want to play the "whataboutism" game here but I will for the sake of examples. Montreal got in the playoffs with just as poor numbers.

What if Boone didn't get hurt? What if Monahan didn't get hurt? What it if the powerplay wasn't terrible? What if the team remembered how to score goals in March and didn't get shut out times post outdoor game?

Endless possiblities here and Elvis is not the specific reason this team did not make the playoffs. This version of the team was also most likely to make the playoffs if a couple of defensive blunders or other plays just went our way. The still overachieved regardless because we all thought we'd be in last place again in October.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Sure Its not our money to spend. I'm sure the management thinks not having 1.6 million to spend those years is a bigger deal than fans do.

are you talking about management caring about the real dollars? because buying elvis out saves ownership $3.2 million in real dollars.

Counterpoint. We have lots of young players due contracts the next couple of years and their agents are going to want to get them paid.

sure. still doesn’t mean $1.6m is a problem.

even if you assume $10m for all four of the big ones (fantilli, marchenko, johnson, mateychuk) they still have, no joke, $50m left in 2027 and $60m in 2028 to fill out the rest of the roster.

if the $1.6m somehow does become a problem they can simply opt to bridge one of their RFAs instead — doesn’t even need to be one of their big guys.

As caps go up, so do contract demands. I'd feel much better about this scenario if we weren't stuck paying Severson until the end of time

severson’s full NTC goes down to partial after 26-27. so that’s another lever to pull if they can only spend

I'm not opposed to upgrading but it needs to be an actual upgrade and not just "well this guy isn't Elvis" I frankly don't see those guys available in the market right now

there are about 60 goalies — including some who weren’t even full-time NHLers — who were better than elvis last year.

they could throw a dart at a list of goalies who aren’t elvis and have a 90% chance of hitting one who is better.

it’s not a robust goalie market but there are enough guys out there that they can get a short-term improvement and buy some time to find a long-term solution.

He was overworked in a few situations because of zero trust in Tarasov.

tarasov would be one of the few guys on the aforementioned dart board who would be a downgrade lol

What if Boone didn't get hurt? What if Monahan didn't get hurt? What it if the powerplay wasn't terrible? What if the team remembered how to score goals in March and didn't get shut out times post outdoor game?

management cannot control cold streaks or injuries. they can control personnel.

Endless possiblities here and Elvis is not the specific reason this team did not make the playoffs. This version of the team was also most likely to make the playoffs if a couple of defensive blunders or other plays just went our way.

they were a couple bounces away while having bottom-five goaltending.

if they had league average goaltending, we’d be talking about those bounces impacting playoff seeding instead.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

there are about 60 goalies — including some who weren’t even full-time NHLers — who were better than elvis last year.
they could throw a dart at a list of goalies who aren’t elvis and have a 90% chance of hitting one who is better.

it’s not a robust goalie market but there are enough guys out there that they can get a short-term improvement and buy some time to find a long-term solution.

Do you think if those goalies had the same usage as Elvis they'd still put up better numbers than him? He played in 53 games last year. A lot of those guys played 15-30 games. Just seems risky to expect Jet to perform that well with Elvis' workload from last year.

Jet on basically league minimum plus Elvis splitting starts/riding the hot hand doesn't seem to bad to me.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Do you think if those goalies had the same usage as Elvis they'd still put up better numbers than him?

GSAA is supposed to account for this, although it is cumulative, so elvis having 53 opportunities to be bad might tip the scales a touch.

either way, we have ways to make it an apples-to-apples comparison and normalize for shot volume + quality.

elvis grades even worse in those metrics than he does in sv%

Jet on basically league minimum plus Elvis splitting starts/riding the hot hand doesn't seem to bad to me.

or, hear me out, jet as the starter and a new backup who they can bank on playing well and won’t throw a tantrum if he’s splitting duties.

 

[Banana duck]

Do you think if those goalies had the same usage as Elvis they'd still put up better numbers than him? He played in 53 games last year. A lot of those guys played 15-30 games. Just seems risky to expect Jet to perform that well with Elvis' workload from last year.

Jet on basically league minimum plus Elvis splitting starts/riding the hot hand doesn't seem to bad to me.

You think Elvis is going to act like an adult if he’s splitting duties? He made it clear almost verbatim “I’m the number one”

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Calvin Pickard makes $1 million/year. There are Calvin Pickard equivalents available in that same price range. If Waddell and his staff are competent, then they can find one of these types.

They'll be just as good as Elvis at worse and likely significantly better and the price differential will pay for the buyout.

Yes, I dare say. It is time for Elvis to leave the building. The upside in keeping him is close to zero and there's significant downside. There is no compelling reason to keep him anymore.

 

[majormajor]

or, hear me out, jet as the starter and a new backup who they can bank on playing well and won’t throw a tantrum if he’s splitting duties.

That's my preference and I hope we see a retained salary trade to provide a fresh start for both sides.

You think Elvis is going to act like an adult if he’s splitting duties? He made it clear almost verbatim “I’m the number one”

It's been a long time since we've heard that one, and by all accounts Elvis has fit better in the room in the last year.

They'll be just as good as Elvis at worst

Could definitely be worse. I would like to change and move on from Elvis anyways but it's very possible that you bring in a guy like that and get .885 while Elvis gets back to .900.

 

[Banana duck]

That's my preference and I hope we see a retained salary trade to provide a fresh start for both sides.



It's been a long time since we've heard that one, and by all accounts Elvis has fit better in the room in the last year.



Could definitely be worse. I would like to change and move on from Elvis anyways but it's very possible that you bring in a guy like that and get .885 while Elvis gets back to .900.

It’s been a long time since we have heard that one because he has been playing as a number one. No reason to complain about “I’m the number one goaltender” if you are playing the role.

He was on his best behavior this year, until he let it slip at the end and got in a shouting match with Gudbranson.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

It’s been a long time since we have heard that one because he has been playing as a number one. No reason to complain about “I’m the number one goaltender” if you are playing the role.

He was on his best behavior this year, until he let it slip at the end and got in a shouting match with Gudbranson.

Gudbranson out most of the season. Elvis on his “best behavior.”

Gudbranson returns. Elvis “lets it slip.”

And we gonna assume Elvis is the issue?

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Calvin Pickard makes $1 million/year. There are Calvin Pickard equivalents available in that same price range. If Waddell and his staff are competent, then they can find one of these types.

They'll be just as good as Elvis at worse and likely significantly better and the price differential will pay for the buyout.

Yes, I dare say. It is time for Elvis to leave the building. The upside in keeping him is close to zero and there's significant downside. There is no compelling reason to keep him anymore.

So we are going to assume any million dollar goalie can get the job done?

Pickard is just the right guy at the right time in the right place. It’s not like he’s done anything in his career so far to earn a bigger salary. He’s also 34 years old with a much better team in front of him.

Calvin Pickard would be nothing if he played on a non playoff roster.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So we are going to assume any million dollar goalie can get the job done?

Pickard is just the right guy at the right time in the right place. It’s not like he’s done anything in his career so far to earn a bigger salary. He’s also 34 years old with a much better team in front of him.

Calvin Pickard would be nothing if he played on a non playoff roster.

Calvin Pickard is a better goalie than Elvis right now. He's not available and won't be. He was used as an example btw. He had a .904 save percentage in 50 games for a team that went 22-56-4 COL (16-17).

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Of goalies who have played 75 games over the past 3 seasons, Elvis ranks 52/54 in sv pct (.890) and 51/54 in GAA (3.50). I think it's a fair assumption that any million dollar goalie has an overwhelming chance to be better than Elvis will be.

Elvis sucks. He's a borderline bad back up NHL goalie at best. He was given his shot by Waddell this year. Enough suck is enough suck. If the CBJ don't buy him out this off season then I think it's fair to question the organization's commitment to excellence.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Calvin Pickard is a better goalie than Elvis right now. He's not available and won't be. He was used as an example btw. He had a .904 save percentage in 50 games for a team that went 22-56-4 COL 16-17).

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Of goalies who have played 75 games over the past 3 seasons, Elvis ranks 52/54 in sv pct (.890) and 51/54 in GAA (3.50).

Elvis sucks. He's a borderline bad back up NHL goalie at best. He was given his shot by Waddell this year. Enough suck is enough suck.

Meh. His numbers this year aren't great. career wise they extremely similar.

Salaries aside, they are basically the same goalie. One just happens to luck into playing on a more talented team and is in the cup finals right now.

For a team spending nowhere near the cap right now, Pickard is not an upgrade over Elvis and the difference in their salaries is a moot point at this moment. he's similar and may be technically cheaper but he is not an upgrade simply because his play was sufficient enough to sustain the team in front of him carrying him to the Finals.

 

[MoeBartoli]

So we are going to assume any million dollar goalie can get the job done?

Pickard is just the right guy at the right time in the right place. It’s not like he’s done anything in his career so far to earn a bigger salary. He’s also 34 years old with a much better team in front of him.

Calvin Pickard would be nothing if he played on a non playoff roster.

Edmonton is certainly a better team than Columbus, but their defense is probably no more than equal.

 

[majormajor]

Edmonton is certainly a better team than Columbus, but their defense is probably no more than equal.

I've come to have a different opinion on that.

They're all good puckmovers who get the puck out of trouble in a hurry.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Edmonton is certainly a better team than Columbus, but their defense is probably no more than equal.

I can't say for sure if it was because their defense was better or if they just controlled the offensive possession more because Draisaitl and McDavid are just that good. But as a team they allowed essentially an average of 3 shots less per game than Columbus did. Edmonton was 9th in the league in that stat. Columbus was 28th.

According to MoneyPuck, we also gave up more high danger scoring chances against and during the regular season PIckard's expected GSAA was actually worse than Elvis. (36 games) -9.1 to (53 games) -8.2.

A guy like Pickard may be cheaper than Elvis but he's not an upgrade if you want better performance. For a team that is highly unlikely to spend to the cap this season you'd be better off just keeping Elvis instead of eating the cap hit in years 3 and 4 right now. That situation could be different with a different goalie but I see no value in a guy like Pickard being just a new body to replace him.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I've come to have a different opinion on that.

They're all good puckmovers who get the puck out of trouble in a hurry.

Not on their PK. They've been atrocious for most of the playoffs. Kulak and Nurse have been gawd awful on simple clearing attempts.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

An organization that is serious about winning will not have Elvis on their roster. 52/54 in save % (.890) of goalies who have played more than 75 games in the last 3 seasons and his 51/54 gaa (3.50) would be automatic disqualiers for him to be kept on the roster of any NHL team who wants to win.

There isn't a worthy metric that exists that makes any case for keeping him around. The arguments against buyout are lame.

Once the CBJ move on from him, he'll not even play 50 more games in the NHL. He'll be back in Europe within 2 years.

I predict that Elvis will not be a member of the CBJ past June 30th since I believe the CBJ are committed to winning. That is when the buyout window closes.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I've come to have a different opinion on that.

They're all good puckmovers who get the puck out of trouble in a hurry.

Hmmm…..Kulak is scary in his own zone and Klingberg, once a decent offensive player but not now, was scratched. Bouchard can move the puck and Ekholm is a quite competent DMan with above average puck skills though not great. Aside from past game Nurse is a guy who I see as a generally inconsequential high paid player prone to some good play but gaffes as well. It’s not a group beyond the top pair that does much for me (though Walman has flashed some).