The Elite Prospects NHL Draft guide is here!

[DavidStLouis]

The Elite Prospects Draft Guide is here, if you want to check it out.

It contains 402 scouting reports, 1000s of game reports, quotes from NHL scouts, manually tracked stats, our 136 skaters ranking, and an in-depth explanation of how we made our list.

We definitely think it’s our best guide yet.

You have to sign up for a Premium membership to get it. We are running a discount on it (50% off) with the code 2023DRAFTGUIDE.

2023 Elite Prospects NHL Draft Guide

I can answer some of your questions about our process and rankings, if you want.

Click to read more...

 

[Kevin Musto]

THE David St Louis???

I hope you continue to post on these boards. I think you're the brightest mind in the internet scouting community.

If it's what you want, an NHL organization is going to poach you some day.

 

[EXTRAS]

How much is the guide?

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Fantastic work to you and the team at EP David. I look forward to this time of year, so much information is readily available to a draft nerd like myself. I appreciate all the work you lot do. You’re carrying the hockey world right now in regards to prospects. And I‘m looking forward to what comes next.

Glad Reinbacher grew on you and the team throughout the season

 

[DavidStLouis]

THE David St Louis???

I hope you continue to post on these boards. I think you're the brightest mind in the internet scouting community.

If it's what you want, an NHL organization is going to poach you some day.

It is me! Thank you. I enjoy my work at EP a lot. I'm a prospect content creator first and foremost, but we'll see what the future holds.

 

[DavidStLouis]

How much is the guide?

I think you can sub for a month and get it (9.99$), but I'd encourage you to take advantage of the 50% off for a year sub (59.94$). It's a good deal if you enjoy hockey analysis, as we post a few breakdowns per week on EP Rinkside, mostly about prospects but also NHL systems and players. You will also have all the others EP premium add-ons on our site. You might even get our 2024 draft guide that way!

Fantastic work to you and the team at EP David. I look forward to this time of year, so much information is readily available to a draft nerd like myself. I appreciate all the work you lot do. You’re carrying the hockey world right now in regards to prospects. And I‘m looking forward to what comes next.

Glad Reinbacher grew on you and the team throughout the season

Thank you! You do great work, too. I read your list here a couple of weeks ago. I like your view of the draft. It's different than most. And yes, you were definitely first on Reinbacher. You deserves the credit (we just came around to your view ).

 

[EXTRAS]

Mine says 119/month

Nvm figured it out. 11.99 for 1 month. Guide looks nice. Well done.

 

[Postulates]

One day Will Smith will be loved by Elite Prospects

#7 is just criminal

 

[Lavar Ball]

Just want to say I always enjoy the guide and think it's well worth the subscription, not to mention the other features you get with it

 

[DavidStLouis]

Mine says 119/month

Nvm figured it out. 11.99 for 1 month. Guide looks nice. Well done.

Forgot to write it above, but you can use the promo code: 2023DRAFTGUIDE to get 50% off on a yearly sub.

One day Will Smith will be loved by Elite Prospects

#7 is just criminal

Yeah. This one might come back to bite us. There's a bit of a gap between Benson and Smith, in that we think he has more upside overall and a higher chance of reaching it.

We believe that Benson impacts more areas of the game than Smith. He’s better along the boards, better in the defensive zone, and better in transition (both as a carrier and a passer). And despite the size difference, we project that he will remain more effective in all of these facets as he matures. He can also accomplish a few of the same highlight-reel moves as Smith and he’s better at picking his spot to use them, too.

In terms of Smith vs Leonard, it's extremely close. I think half our team had Smith ahead. . We just had to make a decision for the final board and Leonard won out.

Just want to say I always enjoy the guide and think it's well worth the subscription, not to mention the other features you get with it

Thank you!

 

[majormajor]

How much of a debate was it at #2?

 

[Kcoyote3]

It really is a fantastic guide.

 

[DavidStLouis]

How much of a debate was it at #2?

For the first two boards, there was a lot of debate. We could either go for the most mature prospect (Carlsson), the one who was improving the fastest (Fantilli), or the one with the most upside (Michkov).

We value upside the most, but when prospects are close together in terms of upside, we use other factors to separate them. We value prospects with more dimensions to their games and with a higher chance to reach their upside than those who are more specialized and boom-or-bust.

Fantilli just has more to offer in general than Michkov, as he impacts more facets of the game, on top of being almost as good of a playmaker/scorer. Fantilli is a better puck retriever, forechecker, and defender, and his tools are better, too. We also felt he had more development runway ahead of him than Carlsson (and better tools than Carlsson, too).

So, at some point, we saw a clear separation there.

Then, we had some evaluators who preferred Carlsson and others Michkov at 3. We never cared about Michkov's contract (not really our job to factor that in), but we felt that, although Michkov had more upside, the gap in upside between Carlsson and Michkov was much smaller than the gap in certainty (chance of reaching it and overall floor) so we picked Carlsson.

Teams won't have control over Michkov's development. And while his offensive skills are amazing, not every team will like his style of play. He's always playing in anticipation, always thinking offence, and slowing the game down to orchestrate passing plays. Those things may annoy some coaches. Carlsson's game will translate better to the NHL as it is now.

Michkov may end up the better scorer, but we feel that even if it's the case, Fantilli and Carlsson may have a similar overall impact on the game when factoring in their other abilities.

 

[majormajor]

We also felt he had more development runway ahead of him than Carlsson

This point is where I'm seeing scouting services wildly differ. I'm curious how folks come to conclusions on runway, if there are trusted rules of thumb that help answer the question.

 

[DavidStLouis]

This point is where I'm seeing scouting services wildly differ. I'm curious how folks come to conclusions on runway, if there are trusted rules of thumb that help answer the question.

That's a great question. We think Fantilli has a longer development runway because: (1) He already took more strides in his development this season (showing an ability to learn and adapt); (2) he's more toolsy than Carlsson (better skating, better physical techniques, handler, and shooter) and because he has such a strong technical base, we feel he could add even more diverse skills over the next years; (3) there are still signs of immaturity in his game (trying plays with little chance of success, for example), so we think he could become even more effective by improving his decision-making; (4) there's the other side of that argument, too, in that his risk-taking nature and confidence often leads to better development as he's trying even more creative plays than Carlsson; (5) and finally, Fantilli passed through some great development systems (Chicago Steel and Michigan Wolverines) who taught him the tactical side of the game and who helped him foster his creative side.

Those are just their specific cases. The gap between those two is small overall, but these are some of the elements that had us rank Fantilli ahead. They also apply to other prospects.

In general, prospects who are not as mature physically, who are younger or play in weaker leagues or in lesser-known development systems may be perceived as having more runway, too.

 

[Kalv]

I renewed my subscription already last month because I think the guide is more valuable than a month-worth of payment. I was very much looking forward to it, loved the last one and I'm nose-deep into this one.


By the way, I noticed that in 2020 you had Byfield #2 and Stutzle #8 Why that?

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Dear Lord…I won’t even be able to read thru the whole thing before the draft…WOW! Awesome.

 

[DavidStLouis]

I renewed my subscription already last month because I think the guide is more valuable than a month-worth of payment. I was very much looking forward to it, loved the last one and I'm nose-deep into this one.


By the way, I noticed that in 2020 you had Byfield #2 and Stutzle #8 Why that?

Thank you

We're probably going to have a retrospective on that this summer. It was a really interesting time for us, our first year of doing the guide. Scouting takes experience. And that one made us instantly learn some very important things. We overvalued decision-making (Stutzle was very inefficient, trying all sorts of plays with little chance of success in his DY) and underestimated how much he would improve with the amazing tools he had. We didn't know how to handle a DEL player. And also we were influenced a bit too much by some people who are no longer with the team.

So it was just a matter of us being rookies at this. We'll still be making mistakes (like Smith at 7 might come back to bite us for the same reason, although Stutzle had much better tools in his DY), but generally, everything about our process improved since 2020. Our grading system and the way we value prospects especially.

It's good to be punched in the face like this early. You avoid other mistakes after that.

 

[Kalv]

Thank you

We're probably going to have a retrospective on that this summer. It was a really interesting time for us, our first year of doing the guide. Scouting takes experience. And that one made us instantly learn some very important things. I think we may have had him at 7 (not sure anymore). We overvalued decision-making (Stutzle was very inefficient, trying all sorts of plays with little chance of success in his DY) and underestimated how much he would improve with the amazing tools he had. We didn't know how to handle a DEL player. And also we were influenced a bit too much by some people who are no longer with the team.

So it was just a matter of us being rookies at this. We'll still be making mistakes (like Smith at 7 might come back to bite us for the same reason, although Stutzle had much better tools in his DY), but generally, everything about our process improved since 2020. Our grading system and the way we value prospects especially.

It's good to be punched in the face like this early. You avoid other mistakes after that.

Thank you! I figured as well that it might be a partially "rookie mistake" as that was your first one. But yeah, mistakes will be made for such a data and eye-test heavy research you're doing. I love your stuff, also the YouTube videos, I love the analytical aspect that is provided with reasoning so everyone can also make their own conclusions.

Fantastic job!

 

[Peasy]

Welcome to HFboards! Love the videos that EP puts out, great work and quality. Thank you for providing prospect coverage.

 

[Postulates]

Thank you

We're probably going to have a retrospective on that this summer. It was a really interesting time for us, our first year of doing the guide. Scouting takes experience. And that one made us instantly learn some very important things. I think we may have had him at 7 (not sure anymore). We overvalued decision-making (Stutzle was very inefficient, trying all sorts of plays with little chance of success in his DY) and underestimated how much he would improve with the amazing tools he had. We didn't know how to handle a DEL player. And also we were influenced a bit too much by some people who are no longer with the team.

So it was just a matter of us being rookies at this. We'll still be making mistakes (like Smith at 7 might come back to bite us for the same reason, although Stutzle had much better tools in his DY), but generally, everything about our process improved since 2020. Our grading system and the way we value prospects especially.

It's good to be punched in the face like this early. You avoid other mistakes after that.

Yeah I was reading even the 2022 and the 2021 guide and the use of the prospecting data tool was brutally disrespectful to non chl players

 

[AHShadow]

The Elite Prospects Draft Guide is here, if you want to check it out.

It contains 402 scouting reports, 1000s of game reports, quotes from NHL scouts, manually tracked stats, our 136 skaters ranking, and an in-depth explanation of how we made our list.

We definitely think it’s our best guide yet.

You have to sign up for a Premium membership to get it. We are running a discount on it (50% off) with the code 2023DRAFTGUIDE.

2023 Elite Prospects NHL Draft Guide

I can answer some of your questions about our process and rankings, if you want.

Thanks for doing this and love your content on Twitter (also a gars de chez nous)!

A few questions on Will Smith:
- Do you think he would go higher than Cooley if they were in the same draft?
- How does he compare to Zegras during their DY?

And one question on Benson:
- I think I'd be happy with either Benson or Will Smith at 5 for the Habs, but I have the impression that they wouldn't draft him Benson cause he's on the smaller side. Don't you think they learned from the Caufield draft and isn't one of the reasons why they drafted Slaf last year so they can draft based purely on skill going forward? I know it's not a process/ranking question, but would love your thoughts regardless!

Last one if you can on Reinbacher:
- Pronman just released a ranking combining both 2022 and 2023 drafts and has Jiricek at 8 and Reinbacher at 9 saying they are pretty similar. If I remember well, I believe you were pretty high on Jiricek and are lower on Reinbacher. What do you think separates both players?

 

[Kalv]

@DavidStLouis

David, as a Ducks fan I noticed that you had some criticism for Fantilli, and I think it is fair. Outside of what is already in the report, do you have any assessment or expectations of Fantilli's production in the NHL in the short and long-term future? Perhaps not necessarily point-wise, but in general.

And how he compares to Beniers, who had a similar situation (same system and position, leading their teams, etc)

 

[95snipes]

The guide is fantastic. I will enjoy reading through this.

I have my fair share of placement disagreements, but that is to be expected. I'm sure you've had these debates internally ad nauseam, so I'm sure you don't care to debate or defend your rankings to a random HFB user. The one thing I have to ask is how is Fantilli only a 6 skater?

Curious about your approach in other areas -

How do you handle internal disagreements to come to a final ranking? Of course not everyone will always see eye to eye, especially as you get past the top 10.

How much emphasis do you put D-1 performances? For someone like Yager I'm concerned with his development stalling after a great D-1 whereas Sale I still think quite highly of him largely based on what he did in his D-1.

How much emphasis do you put on 'big game' moments? Playoffs, tournaments, etc. For someone like Cristall, I feel like his flaws were on full display in the WHL playoffs / U18s whereas with Barlow I don't think much differently of him despite a pedestrian U18 tournament since his skill set is more translatable.

Also, curious your take on video vs live viewings.

Keep up the great work!

 

[Bombshell11]

Will be curious to see if Mtl is going to pick Ethan Gauthier at #31