The difference between a NHL fourth liner and an AHL first liner

[MMC]

For awhile, I have thought that there is little difference between the quality of a NHL fourth liner and an AHL first liner. I personally believe that pretty much every NHL team has about 2 or 3 players in the AHL that would put similar results to their worst NHL players. However, I haven't really been able to find much data supporting this. Do you agree with this statement, and can anyone find any numbers to support or dispute this claim?

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Pretty good post, I've had similar thoughts about this...

Completely anecdotal....I think you might be right that while the offensive results might be somewhat similar, the AHL players would cause a lot more defensive problems and liabilites off the puck playing in the faster more skilled NHL.

Just my thoughts.

 

[Hostile Offer]

The difference is waivers

 

[voxel]

Lots of high scoring AHLers are too slow or small for the NHL. Small players don't really belong on a traditional energy/4th line.

 

[Thordic]

First line AHL players are offensive players who, for a variety of reasons, can't put it together in the NHL. They skate a bit too slow, their stick-handling isn't quite good enough, poor shot selection, think the game a few steps too slow, etc. Still some of the better players in the world but not quite enough to translate to the NHL. But they are primarily offensive players who likely have some holes in their defensive game. They can score on AHL-level goalies, and take advantage of AHL-level defenses. In the NHL they can maybe put up 20-30 points, tops, and have little to contribute on defense.

An NHL 4th liner may or may not be a great offensive player, even in the AHL. But they have more consistent effort, better defensive skills, can skate better, or some other package of things that gives them enough NHL-level talent to stick. In a vacuum they may look objectively worse than an AHL first liner, but they have some skill or subset of skills that makes them succeed at something that is valuable in the NHL whereas the AHL guy just doesn't have it.

Look at Jason Krog. He was pretty much a PPG player in the AHL. Averaged like 50+ assists a season down there at his peak, and scored a decent amount of goals as well. He managed to get 200 NHL games with various clubs, and wasn't particularly good. Averaged 24 points per season, and I don't believe he played much (if any) special teams. He was a stopgap player at best.

 

[voxel]

Alexandre Giroux could score 60 goals in the AHL but was a lumbering player who took forever to get his shot out in the NHL.

Alexandre Giroux Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

 

[Hatfield]

Lots of high scoring AHLers are too slow or small for the NHL. Small players don't really belong on a traditional energy/4th line.

Yeah, there are certain players who can light it up at the AHL level but can't hack it in the NHL. Alexandre Giroux had 60 goals and 97 points in 69 games for Hershey in 08-09; that same season he had just 1 goal and 1 assist during a 12-game call-up with the Caps. That ended up being the longest NHL stint of his career. He wasn't really small but I guess he was missing some critical ingredient.

 

[Kcb12345]

Some guys just can't adjust to the speed of the game mentally as well as others. The difference is pretty crazy though. So many players can tear the AHL apart offensively, but up at this level they can't generate anything

 

[North Cole]

Different roles and skillsets. A top line AHL offensive player isn't generally suited to bottom-6 NHL duties and responsibilities. Even the worst players in the NHL are unbelievable skaters, for all that people talk about toolboxes (annoying buzzword) and IQ, 90-95% of hockey is skating. All the IQ, shooting, vision, etc. don't mean squat if you can't keep up with the play.

Rob Schremp is a decent example of that.

 

[DaveG]

Honestly mostly the style of play. For example looking at last year's Hurricanes and Checkers, there's little doubt that Janne Kuokkanen is a more skilled player than Saku Maenalainen or Clark Bishop. But the other two were able to effectively fill in on a 4th line role on a conference finalist because they play a much more defensively sound game and can be effective minutes eaters for 7-8 minutes a night even if they aren't producing offensively. A guy like Kuokkanen, or Zac Boychuk, or Jason Krog before him has to be producing in a scoring role to be an effective NHL player, they just don't bring enough to the table if they're not.

 

[Kamiccolo]

What I find is even more interesting are the rare cases of players playing better in the NHL than lower leagues, but let's not derail your thread.

I agree every team has these players. If your job is to go out and work hard, maintain possession and throw your body around, is that any different in the NHL vs AHL? Your skill level doesn't really matter because you aren't getting asked to change your game or contribute in that way. Maybe they ask you to kill penalties.

What about guys who would fail at a 4th liner job but excel when given top 6 minutes in offensive roles? Lots of examples of these guys too.

 

[mikeyfan]

About 700,000 a year

 

[Gardner McKay]

About $850,000 a year.

About 700,000 a year

Damn. Beat me to it

 

[Bounces R Way]

Watch an entire AHL game and then an entire NHL game. The NHL is much much faster, and the AHL isn't particularly slow itself compared to the wide open leagues in Europe. As NHL fans I think sometimes we don't realize or maybe appreciate just how good these guys are, especially watching it on television.

People get it in their heads speed is just about how fast you skate, when really it's not. It's how fast you can make a pass, make a move, make a play, make a good decision on top of how fast you skate. It's why teams prefer bottom 6 players that "play the right way" AKA play mistake free risk averse safe low event hockey. You can afford a couple mistakes as a top line player in the AHL, you really can't in the NHL because half the time it'll wind up in your net.

 

[Telos]

That's how it goes with any career or profession. There's always going to be others capable of doing the job at that level, but not everyone is able to distinguish themselves enough or have the right timing to make it. It's a factor if skill and luck, but there will always be those left behind that could have made it.

 

[mikeyfan]

About $850,000 a year.


Damn. Beat me to it

You know what they say about great minds?

If you remember please remind me. Dang getting old sucks.

 

[Windy River]

Lots of high scoring AHLers are too slow or small for the NHL. Small players don't really belong on a traditional energy/4th line.

That thinking is why guys like MSL go undrafted then go on to win multiple Art Ross’, cup, and league wide respect as an elite forward.

 

[Fixxer]

You wouldn't want Nate Thompson on the 1st line in Laval, but so far he's the fixture as a 4th Center and has no adequate competition.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

It all comes down to roles.

Quality 4th liner in the NHL can do his job as a checking forward, knows how to do the little things right that coaches love, competes his ass off and brings variety to teams play so it's not all just skill. They can make a team "harder to play against", as we know grinding is part of the game and can often help out on the PK which is another important area in the game and has nothing to do with offensive skill.

Quality 1st liner in the AHL is often not able to do this. Their job is to produce which they can't do at a good enough level in the NHL in that same role. But going from an offensive player to a checking forward is not easy.

In a vacuum (if we go by offense>defense) 1st liners in the AHL can often be considered better players than NHL 4th liners in a sense that if you pick a team without any top 9 NHL forwards for a tournament, you're likely to still see NHL 4th liners playing checking roles in a lot of cases. But if the AHL guy is producing PPG on the 1st line in that tournament, you're not going to consider the checking NHL forward a better player.

It's a great example why comparing hockey players is tough, and people should always think about roles. There's a reason Brandon Tanev got 3.5M. But how many people actually consider him a better player than someone who scores 40 pts making similar salary? Probably no one. And yet, the coaches would tell you Tanev does so much for the team, arguably more.

 

[wej20]

Most NHL coaches would rather have a guy who wont hurt you defensively and provide some energy rather than an AHL all star who might give you a couple more points but doesn't provide a spark/probably isn't suitable to PK or to start most shifts in the defensive zone.

 

[voxel]

That thinking is why guys like MSL go undrafted then go on to win multiple Art Ross’, cup, and league wide respect as an elite forward.

Nah. If you know me my favorite AHLer is Nigel Dawes... just a monster in the AHL when he played for the Bulldogs. He’d easily slot into a NHL lineup.

It’s guys like Dillion Dube who are excellent AHLers but lack the extra size, strength, etc. required to beat NHL defenders... they blow past AHL ones with ease.

 

[authentic]

Nah. If you know me my favorite AHLer is Nigel Dawes... just a monster in the AHL when he played for the Bulldogs. He’d easily slot into a NHL lineup.

It’s guys like Dillion Dube who are excellent AHLers but lack the extra size, strength, etc. required to beat NHL defenders... they blow past AHL ones with ease.

Nigel Dawes actually did play in the NHL and looked pretty decent.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's actually pretty obvious that it comes down to style/skillset and what is expected of them. The reason that most AHL first liners who can never make the NHL is because they're typically offense-only guys with a major flaw (size, speed, work ethic, etc.) that prevents them from playing that role in the NHL.

In comparison, most 4th line NHLers are good at the "basics" of the game such as defense, board work, and being able to play on the PK. So even though their actual puck skills might be on the low end, they're competent at the various things most teams need from their 4th liners.

 

[TheOtherOne]

About $500k

 

[SI90]

Roles play a big part. A guy who may put up tons of points in the AHL as a top line player may not be able to do so in the NHL and could be ineffective as a bottom 6 NHL forward.

on the isles, Matt Martin probably wouldn’t put up much points in the AHL but in the NHL he’s responsible defensively and plays his role as a bottom 6 physical grinder.