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The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

Melvin said:
Most of it is just in sql scripts. I have a database in azure with the logic housed in a couple views, and a couple very basic Python scripts on top of that.

It is all very simple, and intentionally so. Doesn't require the use of R.

Pts/game * posfactor * LGfactor * agefactor * heightfactor and I basically filter out players with fewer than 20 games played and goalies.

Thats pretty much it. I've evaluated a few other factors as research pieces and will continue to do so but I want to keep it simple enough for anyone to understand. It is the baseline against which more fancy statistical models should be evaluated.
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Heh, this is exactly what I used to do way back in the 80s, well before databases and the internet.. I'd eagerly await the latest NHL Official Guide & Record Book and pour over draft picks and their draft year stats, factor for ppg/position/league/size, to me this is still the best baseline, but it is still just that, you then have to look into how things change over time... league values, sizes values, and then once you have your baseline list, look at what sort of team those players played on, what their all-around game (defense/physicality etc) was, as well as intangibles like leadership, conditioning, resiliency, character etc.

It's one thing to see how the Canucks may have fared, would be interested to see who the top 30 would have been for say a 5 year stretch 10-15 years ago?
 
Melvin said:
Tentative top-15 for 2019, should be pretty close to final, unless I find some kind of bug.

1. Kaapo Kakko, F, Liiga, 38 P in 45 GP.
2. Jack Hughes, F, USDP, 45 in 100.
3. Samuel Fagemo, F, SHL, 25/42.
4. Alex Turcotte, F, USDP, 59/32.
5. Arthur Kaliyev, F, OHL, 102/67.
6. Bowen Byram, D, WHL, 71/67
7. Ville Heinola, D, Liiga, 14/34
8. Jakob Pelletier, F, QMJHL, 89/65
9. Nathan Légaré, F, QMJHL, 87/68
10. Trevor Zegras, F, USDP, 78/55
11. Bobby Brink, F, USHL, 68/43
12. Dylan Cozens, F, WHL, 84/68
13. Brayden Tracey, F WHL, 81/66
14. Ryan Suzuki, F, OHL, 75/65
15. Thomas Harley, D, OHL, 58/68

Would imagine that Fagemo will be the potato pick for Vancouver; I think he's projected to go in the 3rd or something.
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Fagemo was actually draft eligible last year, did you use this year's stats or his 1st draft eligible year's stats?
 
Well done Melvin. Echoing other posters; are you able to tell us where you are working?

Regardless; congrats. I hope the move goes smoothly.
 
Chuck Feathers said:
Fagemo was actually draft eligible last year, did you use this year's stats or his 1st draft eligible year's stats?
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He was ranked last year but not very highly. His numbers in SuperElit were nothing special. His numbers in SHL given his mediocre junior numbers is actually what makes him so interesting.
 
I believe you mentioned it was for the Reds but I might be wrong, congrats Melvin sounds like a great opportunity.
 
Melvin said:
He was ranked last year but not very highly. His numbers in SuperElit were nothing special. His numbers in SHL given his mediocre junior numbers is actually what makes him so interesting.
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That steep development curve is a huge plus. He also destroyed the SuperElit in the few games he played this season. Just a huge improvement over one season. His 13:56 of icetime in the SHL is also a point in his favour.

Someone with the time should check how many of his points came with playing with Ryan Lasch, his teammate who led the SHL in scoring.
 
Melvin said:
He was ranked last year but not very highly. His numbers in SuperElit were nothing special. His numbers in SHL given his mediocre junior numbers is actually what makes him so interesting.
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Maybe so but in my experience there is folly in trying to compare 18 y/o vs 19 y/o, have to keep it apples to apples or the recency bias is huge.
 
Chuck Feathers said:
Maybe so but in my experience there is folly in trying to compare 18 y/o vs 19 y/o, have to keep it apples to apples or the recency bias is huge.
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So you would never draft a 19yo?

Like, come on man, this thread is very long. I have explained the methodology a couple dozen times. It's also written on my blog, which I've linked to several times. Maybe catch up first. Yes of course him being a second-time-eligible means his numbers are discounted, but that doesn't mean he is rated 0.

Of course I am not just comparing his numbers 1:1 to an 18 year old. Of course there are age factors (or, rather, times-eligible-for-draft factors.) He is rated highly despite this.
 
Melvin said:
So you would never draft a 19yo?

Like, come on man, this thread is very long. I have explained the methodology a couple dozen times. It's also written on my blog, which I've linked to several times. Maybe catch up first. Yes of course him being a second-time-eligible means his numbers are discounted, but that doesn't mean he is rated 0.

Of course I am not just comparing his numbers 1:1 to an 18 year old. Of course there are age factors (or, rather, times-eligible-for-draft factors.) He is rated highly despite this.
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Where did I say that? I've already told you I've been using a similar methodology since the 80s, but it's easy to see that junior leagues scoring leaders are very often 19 and 20 year olds, it's just almost apples to oranges, for example did you run your numbers to include just undrafted when you included 19 year olds? Maybe try it with all 19 year olds and see where he falls?
 
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