The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

[Doyle Hargraves]

This is exactly what the post you disagreed with said.

I’m going cross eyed. I woulda sworn he said Gillis drafted 3 times and Elmer drafted five times. Can’t even blame it on booze. Either way though the drafting under Eye Bags was horrendous and I’m a fan of the guy.

 

[Melvin]

It wouldn't surprise me if Hughes is a great pick, but this model is based kn the big picture. In the long run, if you take the forward with the numbers over the shrimpy defender from college you will come out ahead more often than not.

Your scouts need to be able to tell you where the exceptions lie if you are really going to master this thing.

 

[I in the Eye]

That Hughes isn't on the list is exactly why there is a need for a benchmark in the drafting process.

It's about making more informed decisions. If a team decides to draft Hughes early, despite what the benchmark says, they will be inclined to look at variables at a deeper level than they otherwise would. At the top of the draft, it's all about finding the likely bpa. Later in the first round and later in the draft is all about finding the gems despite the question marks.

Regardless of who is decided to be ranked where, the goal should be 0 ignorance involved in the decision.

 

[Melvin]

Big thank you to @vancityluongo who helped me with some data entry as I now have data going back to the 2006 draft.

Things are getting a bit sketchy now due to the reliability of 10+ year old data and the changes in league structures over this time.

Just for fun, Canuck picks from 2006-2008:

2006: Claude Giroux, Bobby Hughes, Jonas Enlund, Chris Auger, Benjamin Breault
2007: Brett MacLean, Patrik Zackrisson, Dustin Jeffrey, Zack Torquato, Nick Larson, Bryan Rufenach
2008: Cody Hodgson, Nathan Moon, Chris Doyle, Matias Sointu, Samuel Morneau

Woof. Overall, these were not good drafts for the model. But still, Claude Giroux makes up for a lot of errors. And that is kind of the point of this project, to show that even when picking players in stupid fashion and making a lot of mistakes, you are going to find these random hits that overall make you look decent. These drafts are pretty garbage, but even if these picks had been our picks we would be in decent shape. It just doesn't really matter.

By the way, I am posting pretty much exclusively in this thread until a certain troll is gone from the boards. If he happens to post in here, please do me a favour and ignore him. Thanks.

 

[Melvin]

Here is the final top 20 for 2018.

On Friday/Saturday I will make picks using the best player still available at the Canucks pick according to the system. Probably 2-3 of these players will be selected, maybe more.

1. Rasmus Dahlin
2. Evan Bouchard
3. Andrei Svechnikov
4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
5. Isac Lundeström
6. Filip Zadina
7. Filip Hållander
8. Noah Dobson
9. Jacob Olofsson
10. Oliver Wahlstrom
11. Sean Durzi
12. Martin Kaut
13. Ryan Merkley
14. Akil Thomas
15. Joe Veleno
16. Nicolas Beaudin
17. Jonatan Berggren
18. David Gustafsson
19. Rasmus Kupari
20. Rasmus Sandin

Will be interesting to see what players we end up with and be able to compare the prospects over time to see how much better the Canucks do.

 

[RobertKron]

Big thank you to @vancityluongo who helped me with some data entry as I now have data going back to the 2006 draft.

Things are getting a bit sketchy now due to the reliability of 10+ year old data and the changes in league structures over this time.

Just for fun, Canuck picks from 2006-2008:

2006: Claude Giroux, Bobby Hughes, Jonas Enlund, Chris Auger, Benjamin Breault
2007: Brett Bellmore, Patrik Zackrisson, Dustin Jeffrey, Zack Torquato, Nick Larson, Bryan Rufenach
2008: Cody Hodgson, Nathan Moon, Chris Doyle, Matias Sointu, Samuel Morneau

Woof. Overall, these were not good drafts for the model. But still, Claude Giroux makes up for a lot of errors. And that is kind of the point of this project, to show that even when picking players in stupid fashion and making a lot of mistakes, you are going to find these random hits that overall make you look decent. These drafts are pretty garbage, but even if these picks had been our picks we would be in decent shape. It just doesn't really matter.

By the way, I am posting pretty much exclusively in this thread until a certain troll is gone from the boards. If he happens to post in here, please do me a favour and ignore him. Thanks.

The Hodgson pick isn’t really very ugly for the model, as you can’t expect it to be able to flag a guy to fail for the reasons Hodgson did.

Also, I find it funny that I genuinely can’t narrow down who you might be talking about beyond a short list of maybe five posters.

 

[Melvin]

The Hodgson pick isn’t really very ugly for the model, as you can’t expect it to be able to flag a guy to fail for the reasons Hodgson did.

Also, I find it funny that I genuinely can’t narrow down who you might be talking about beyond a short list of maybe five posters.

Yeah.

That also was supposed to be Brett MacLean in 2007 , not Bellmore. MacLean was a pretty good prospect who had to retire due to a heart condition. The model also had Alexei Cherepanov rated very highly that year, who died suddenly during a game in Russia. That was really not a good year for anyone.

 

[Fire Benning]

Here is the final top 20 for 2018.

On Friday/Saturday I will make picks using the best player still available at the Canucks pick according to the system. Probably 2-3 of these players will be selected, maybe more.

1. Rasmus Dahlin
2. Evan Bouchard
3. Andrei Svechnikov
4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
5. Isac Lundeström
6. Filip Zadina
7. Filip Hållander
8. Noah Dobson
9. Jacob Olofsson
10. Oliver Wahlstrom
11. Sean Durzi
12. Martin Kaut
13. Ryan Merkley
14. Akil Thomas
15. Joe Veleno
16. Nicolas Beaudin
17. Jonatan Berggren
18. David Gustafsson
19. Rasmus Kupari
20. Rasmus Sandin

Will be interesting to see what players we end up with and be able to compare the prospects over time to see how much better the Canucks do.

Thanks for doing this mate.

 

[RobertKron]

Yeah.

That also was supposed to be Brett MacLean in 2007 , not Bellmore. MacLean was a pretty good prospect who had to retire due to a heart condition. The model also had Alexei Cherepanov rated very highly that year, who died suddenly during a game in Russia. That was really not a good year for anyone.

Yeah, Maclean was often undersold because he played with Tavares, but he was still a capable player in his own right. Bad skater, though, right?

 

[Verviticus]

are you sick of hearing praise yet? if not, awesome work dude

 

[Verviticus]

The Hodgson pick isn’t really very ugly for the model, as you can’t expect it to be able to flag a guy to fail for the reasons Hodgson did.

Also, I find it funny that I genuinely can’t narrow down who you might be talking about beyond a short list of maybe five posters.

yeah i had to think about it for a sec

 

[Horse McHindu]

Here is the final top 20 for 2018.

On Friday/Saturday I will make picks using the best player still available at the Canucks pick according to the system. Probably 2-3 of these players will be selected, maybe more.

1. Rasmus Dahlin
2. Evan Bouchard
3. Andrei Svechnikov
4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
5. Isac Lundeström
6. Filip Zadina
7. Filip Hållander
8. Noah Dobson
9. Jacob Olofsson
10. Oliver Wahlstrom
11. Sean Durzi
12. Martin Kaut
13. Ryan Merkley
14. Akil Thomas
15. Joe Veleno
16. Nicolas Beaudin
17. Jonatan Berggren
18. David Gustafsson
19. Rasmus Kupari
20. Rasmus Sandin

Will be interesting to see what players we end up with and be able to compare the prospects over time to see how much better the Canucks do.

With all this time you’ve spent on this, do you play with your own poo for fun? Like make airplane models out of your own poo and what not?

Hahaha, just kidding bro. In all seriousness, that’s some great research that you did. Very interesting to me that Tkachuk, Boqvist, and Hughes completely fall of the map with your analysis.

I like Bouchard but am not as insanely high on him as some others. I’m more of a Dobson guy. Will be very interesting to see how all of this place out. I’ll also pay attention to your dark horses.

Great job!

 

[Bleach Clean]

@Melvin: What does the Potato say about the equivalencies between the OHL and the SuperElit? Is Boqvist's production horrid? I'm having the toughest time choosing between Bouchard and Boqvist. The former has the production, but the latter has the talent.

 

[Melvin]

I have it around 75% of the OHL. Based only on production and league (not accounting for other things like height,) he is similar to someone like Jared McIsaac, Joey Keane, or, from older drafts ..... Olli Juolevi.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I have it around 75% of the OHL. Based only on production and league (not accounting for other things like height,) he is similar to someone like Jared McIsaac, Joey Keane, or, from older drafts ..... Olli Juolevi.

What about Makar? I heard JD Burke describe the equivalency of the SuperElit to be more like the BCHL. This is why I ask.

I was hoping that it was similar to the USHL. I can’t bring myself to justify taking Boqvist over Bouchard given this information. I want to, but it’s just too much of an unnecessary risk to justify.

 

[Melvin]

Very similar to Makar, yes. That was another name I almost used. It's also only 25 games.

Edit: I have the SuperElit and the USHL as higher than the BCHL. Makar was AJHL.

His production is definitely not horrid. It is comparable to Erik Karlsson and Robert Hagg in that league. But also Dennis Persson and Jesper Lindgren.

 

[Horse McHindu]

And that is kind of the point of this project, to show that even when picking players in stupid fashion and making a lot of mistakes, you are going to find these random hits that overall make you look decent.

No offense, but couldn't the same be said about a monkey throwing darts at a dart board? Even by complete chance, you'll hit the Bulls eye every once in awhile.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Very similar to Makar, yes. That was another name I almost used. It's also only 25 games.

Edit: I have the SuperElit and the USHL as higher than the BCHL. Makar was AJHL.

His production is definitely not horrid. It is comparable to Erik Karlsson and Robert Hagg in that league. But also Dennis Persson and Jesper Lindgren.

You think that maybe it’s too short of a sample to accurately judge him? I’m looking for anything at this point.

 

[Melvin]

No offense, but couldn't the same be said about a monkey throwing darts at a dart board? Even by complete chance, you'll hit the Bulls eye every once in awhile.

Well yes, that is exactly what I am demonstrating. The list of players available for the draft is pretty much public information, and no matter what method you use to pick from this list, you are probably going to do about the same. The idea that it takes a drafting wizard to get any decent prospects from the draft is exactly the fallacy I am fighting with this project. I am objectively taking players in a stupid and rudimentary fashion and still doing as well as most if not all NHL teams. This is why I believe very strongly that drafting is not, as many claim, the "most important thing" for an NHL front office.

Of course, the Canucks in particular have been so, so much worse than the potato/monkey for so long that even just run-0f-the-mill performance seems impressive.

 

[Zombotron]

even just run-0f-the-mill performance seems impressive.

We have prospects! Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich!!!! They didn't evaporate into dust in their D+1 seasons!!!!! Benning is a draft GENIUS!!!

 

[Melvin]

You think that maybe it’s too short of a sample to accurately judge him? I’m looking for anything at this point.

He's right on that line. My system discounts stats that are put up in fewer than 25 games in a league, so he is literally on the line. It would be easier to get a read on him if he had played the whole season there. The fact that he played 15 SHL games is generally a huge positive, but only one point combined with 2 points in 7 Allsvenskan games makes him probably the most difficult player to evaluate in the first round.

For me? Bouchard's performance is almost unprecedented. The last guy to put up those kind of numbers was Ryan Ellis in 2009, and he was 5'10" and playing with Taylor Hall.

As far as 6'2" defenders who have put up 80+ points and absolutely dwarfed everyone else on his team, there just aren't any comparables in the last decade of drafting. Boqvist is maybe more intriguing for other reasons but in terms of his production it is a big mystery box.

 

[Melvin]

We have prospects! Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich!!!! They didn't evaporate into dust in their D+1 seasons!!!!! Benning is a draft GENIUS!!!

Right, exactly. My system didn't get Kole Lind, but it got me Jason Robertson, who is basically the same thing. I can get middling prospects too, and I don't have to pay millions of dollars to fly scouts around the world or make smug videos of how smart I am or put on pants.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

This is fascinating.

You're a wizard @Melvin. A true star.

 

[mossey3535]

LOL pants.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Very similar to Makar, yes. That was another name I almost used. It's also only 25 games.

Edit: I have the SuperElit and the USHL as higher than the BCHL. Makar was AJHL.

His production is definitely not horrid. It is comparable to Erik Karlsson and Robert Hagg in that league. But also Dennis Persson and Jesper Lindgren.

It might be worth noting that Boqvist production is very unequal (for a d-man) in terms of goals vs assists.

Someone pointed out on another board that Boqvist had the highest goals/gm ever, for a U18 d-man in the Super Elite J20 league. On the other hand his assist numbers were extremely pedestrian.

14 goals and 10 assists (25 games) is an extremely odd stat line for a d-man in any league. People can infer whatever they wish out of that, but I see his assist totals as something of an anomaly. Usually any type of high impact offensive defenceman is going to have as many assists as goals no matter how in love with their own shot they are. Given his shot, and the obvious lack of team-mates who were on his level- i'm also guessing his coach told him to shoot at every opportunity. All in all, lack of production only really applies to Boqvist's pro numbers imo.