The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

[F A N]

@Melvin, is it just me or does your model seem to undervalue NCAA players? For example, your model would catch those players who put up big numbers in lower level leagues but would miss on Hughes who put up some respectable totals in the NCAA.

 

[Melvin]

@Melvin, is it just me or does your model seem to undervalue NCAA players? For example, your model would catch those players who put up big numbers in lower level leagues but would miss on Hughes who put up some respectable totals in the NCAA.

Yeah, this has come up a few times so there is probably something to it. But to be honest, there have not been a TON of point producing players drafted from the NCAA since 2010. I think some people would be surprised at how short the list is. Here are the top NCAA draft-eligible 18 year old players in P/GP over the last decade:

Player	Conference	GP	P
Jack Eichel	H-East	40	71	1.78
Luke Kunin	Big 10	34	32	0.94
Tage Thompson	H-East	36	32	0.89
Quinn Hughes	Big 10	36	29	0.81
Brady Tkachuk	H-East	40	31	0.78
Zach Werenski	Big 10	35	25	0.71
Charlie McAvoy	H-East	37	25	0.68
Adam Clendening	H-East	39	26	0.67
Noah Hanifin	H-East	37	23	0.62
Matthew Nieto	H-East	39	23	0.59

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As for Hughes, I wouldn't say that it "missed" on Hughes, exactly, just that he was behind Evan Bouchard. There were 4 D that year that everyone was talking about (aside from Dahlin,) and seemingly everyone had them in a different order: Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson, Boqvist. That was the order the potato had. Hughes was somewhere in the top 15. I don't consider it a huge miss. Bouchard had monster numbers in his draft year.

And anyway, the current ranking has Kent Johnson quite high and could very well be the potato's pick for the Canucks if Eklund is taken.

 

[Melvin]

Looks like Artyom Martino is still on the board. He's the guy the potato liked at 41.

 

[timw33]

Looks like Artyom Martino is still on the board. He's the guy the potato liked at 41.

Dallas grabs him at 73. They are having a nice draft.

 

[Melvin]

Dallas grabs him at 73. They are having a nice draft.

With the pick we sent to them for Dickinson, heh.

Potato likes Joshua Roy now.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

a potato would have draft picks

Can we just take a moment to bask in the glow of Jim Benning's genius:

No 1st or 2nd round picks in 2020
No 1st, 3rd, 4th round picks in 2021
No 2nd or 3rd round picks in 2022
Finished last in the division in the most recent season
One of the weakest prospect pools in the league
All while being hard up against the cap

I mean, that takes some skill.

 

[Melvin]

Yay, the Canucks had two picks.

The potato takes Joshua Roy and Dmitri Buchelnikov.

 

[J Corso]

Is it possible to make a potato based trading thread?

It would be cool to see a similar data based approach (and to see Benning fail to measure up).

 

[Melvin]

Roy goes to Montreal

 

[Melvin]

169 - Brenden Sirizzotti.

 

[Melvin]

178 - Connor Kurth

 

[Melvin]

201 - Peter Reynolds

Must be on Do-Not-Draft lists for some reason or another for him to fall so far.

 

[Melvin]

I guess that's a wrap.

So, not final as I'm too lazy to verify all this, but I think it's:

41 - Ayrton Martino
137 - Dmitri Buchelnikov
140 - Joshua Roy
169 - Brenden Sirizzotti
178 - Connor Kurth
201 - Peter Reynolds

*** EDIT ***

I found a bug in my code that was basically causing it to over-rate players who only had one season of data (i.e. Sirizzotti.) As this was my first attempt at doing stuff with multi-seasons worth of data I figured there would be some hiccups.

But now that I am doing what I intended which is to use 2 seasons worth of data if available and discount 2020 numbers compared to 2021 numbers while ALSO using a GP weighting (so if they played 50 games in 2020 and 2 in 2021 then in that case 2020 would actually get weighed more .... ITS COMPLICATED OKAY) this is now slightly different:

41 - Ryder Korczak
137 - Joshua Roy
140 - Alexander Suvorov
169 - Dmitri Buchelnikov
178 - Avery Hayes
201 - Nikita Bespalov

 

[jd22]

Hey Melvin, are you compiling this in R?

 

[Melvin]

Hey Melvin, are you compiling this in R?

Python

 

[Melvin]

Curious to hear what people think about Joshua Roy - taken by the potato at 140th overall (where the Canucks took Jon Myrenberg,) he is leading his Q team in scoring with 47 points in 27 games.

 

[timw33]

Curious to hear what people think about Joshua Roy - taken by the potato at 140th overall (where the Canucks took Jon Myrenberg,) he is leading his Q team in scoring with 47 points in 27 games.

Quadrupled his production and leads his team in scoring by almost 10 points? Damn, that's a nice D+1 Roy is putting together.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Curious to hear what people think about Joshua Roy - taken by the potato at 140th overall (where the Canucks took Jon Myrenberg,) he is leading his Q team in scoring with 47 points in 27 games.

He’s a stud so far

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

He’s a stud so far

Stud pick from the Spud.

 

[drax0s]

Stud pick from the Spud.

To be honest, looks like every pick the potato made is progressing pretty well.

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

To be honest, looks like every pick the potato made is progressing pretty well.

Lending credence to just getting the most picks possible if thats the case. I mean the spud is litterally just that.

 

[Melvin]

Yeah, that’s sort of the point. Finding players in the draft who can serve as promising prospects in the near term is not difficult. It’s not something that requires any scouting talent.

 

[Peen]

What does the potato get for the penguins under Allvin?

 

[Melvin]

What does the potato get for the penguins under Allvin?

DraftPos	Pens	Potato
2018
53	Calen Addison	Jacob Olofsson
58	Filip Hållander	Filip Hållander
129	Justin Almeida	Nathan Dunkley
177	Liam Gorman	Jerry Turkulainen
2019
21	Samuel Poulin	Arthur Kaliyev
74	Nathan Légaré	Nathan Légaré
145	Judd Caulfield	Yegor Serdyuk
203	Valtteri Puustinen	Jere Innala
211	Santeri Airola	Cole Mackay
2020
52	Joel Blomqvist	Veeti Miettinen
77	Calle Clang	Ryan Francis
108	Lukas Svejkovsky	Zion Nybeck
149	Raivis Ansons	Connor McClennon
170	Chase Yoder	Axel Rindell
2021
58	Tristan Broz	Ryder Korczak
154	Isaac Beliveau	Alexander Suvorov
194	Ryan McCleary	Dmitri Buchelnikov
215	Daniel Laatch	Avery Hayes
218	Kirill Tankov	Nikita Bespalov

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

According to someone in the other thread, Nathan Légaré was Sam Ventura's pick, so that's a bit funny. I wouldn't be surprised if Hallander was as well.

 

[Melvin]

Dmitri Buchelnikov

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

according to EliteProspects, is decently rated for next year's draft (#47 among Euros per central scouting,) so did I mess up by including him for last year? Was he eligible last year?