The cost of trading a bad Contract

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Chayka almost selected Chychrun at 7 over Keller. He made the trade because he had Chychrun rated very highly and he wanted to make sure he got his guy.

There was an article on The Athletic that basically confirmed what you said. Holland and Chayka had spoken before about some possible trades and I could assume that Datsyuk's contract was one of the talking points. Chayka had a couple of players ranked high that were falling and he called Holland to see if he would be interested in swapping picks. Taking on Datsyuk was a condition of the trade and when Chychrun was still on the board the Wings and Arizona made the trade.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

Can you do Marc Staal and Brendan Smith, please?

 

[HuGort]

To be honest I wasn't sure if it was a consideration that needed to be made. The way I tried to create this method of establishing a "Dumping Value" was done with the team acquiring the contract in mind. From their perspective as the team taking on the "Bad Contract" they will only take on a contract if the trade provides them with enough excess value to make it worthwhile. If a team isn't willing to meet their price they aren't under any obligation to take on that contract and player. I don't believe the cost to move a contract is dependent on whether or not a team wishes to move the contract, that impacts just how much they would be willing to move to get rid of it.

In your example of Alzner, Montreal is fine until they need to use the cap space Alzner is currently occupying, once this happens they may become more motivated to move Alzner and his contract. If this need never arises they will be able to keep him on in the minors in a mentoring role for 925K in cap relief until his contract runs out. However, if the Habs could sign Panarin or Duchene this off-season perhaps they decide that it makes sense to trade away Alzner and use the extra cap space to sign one of them. I totally agree that if a team isn't motivated to move a bad contract then they will just wait until it expires and continue on with their normal routines.

Canadiens better off buying Alzner out

 

[HuGort]

Sure, here is Zaitsev:





Zaitsev is not well liked by Evolving-Wild's WAR model and as such his overall value is almost as poor as Lucic's. That being said, given what is being reported by the media, it seems as though GMs don't feel the same way about Zaitsev and believe he can still be a valuable contributer. As such, I don't believe a Zaitsev trade would fall under the typical salary dump trade; however, if GMs were to value him similarly to the WAR model used the package to move him would be costly.

Zaitsev has been a below replacement level defender and is signed for 5 more years at a 4.5M salary, that is about as poor a contract as you can have. The mid range cost to move him is Sandin, assuming after the great 2018 season he had is now worth a pick in the 5-10 range and a 2020 1st, assuming it falls in the 16-31 range. Other alternatives would be to include one of Kapanen or Johsson in the trade, though Johnsson would require a 2nd round pick to be included to have the overall value end up in the mid range area. Of course the Leafs could also package their other assets such as Liljegren, Bracco, Korshkov, and future picks depending on how other teams value Zaitsev.

This is an example of a trade around the lower end of the cost range:






Here is David Backes:





He's interesting because his value really depends on whether or not he's capable of playing anymore. As it currently stands the mid range cost to move him is just a 2nd+7th. His TOI in the playoffs was typically sub 10 minutes so I think you'd have a hard time convincing teams that he can still be a valuable contributor. I think given his injury history the trade would be a higher than what's projected at the mid range; I would expect something along the lines of a 2nd+3rd, or potentially even a 1st+ if the Bruins were to try and dump Backes.



One last thing to keep in mind is that I'm not sure NHL teams value later round picks the same way this framework does. I could quite easily see a late 3rd to a 7th round pick being interchangeable to some GMs if they are getting high picks (1sts or 2nds) or good young players in return.

I find that hard to follow. I use the RFA rules usually. A 1 year 4.2 million contract is worth about a 2nd round pick.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If anyone has the inclination, I'd like to see what it would cost to move Jack Johnson, and whether a late 1st would be enough of an incentive based on this formula.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I find that hard to follow. I use the RFA rules usually. A 1 year 4.2 million contract is worth about a 2nd round pick.

Sorry for it being hard to follow. This was my first attempt at creating something "analytical" so I understand if some parts are hard to follow. The generally idea behind the model was to try and figure out how much it would cost a team to move a player if the player had negative value. Throughout my research I found that there were 3 key factors in determining the cost it would take. The first being the term remaining on the contract, the 2nd was the % of salary cap the contract took, and the 3rd which I couldn't quantify was how motivated a team was to get out of the contract.

So in your example of a 4.2M contract being worth a 2nd my model would suggest that the cost to trade away a player with 0 or negative value would have a cost of a 2nd round pick in the mid range, a 3rd round pick on the low end, and a high end of a late 1st.

If anyone has the inclination, I'd like to see what it would cost to move Jack Johnson, and whether a late 1st would be enough of an incentive based on this formula.

Sorry about the delayed response. Using the same methodology as last season the cost to move Jack Johnson would be quite high and beyond what the Leafs had to move. This is because of the extra term that Johnson's contact carries makes it more expensive for the Pens to dump him. As well, Johnson saw his play further deteriorate this past year, to the point where I think he would have the worst WAR projection among NHLers using my adjusted Marcel method. The mid range cost using the model would be something like this:

Pens trade:

Jack Johnson
1st round pick (#15)
Jared McCann
3rd round pick

Pens get:

AHLer

I do think that because so much of Johnson's negative value comes from actually playing and not from his contract that the cost to move him would be lower than what the mid range suggests. I could see an alternative where something along the lines of McCann+2021 2nd+Prospect works too, it just depends on how the team views McCann.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Can you do Marc Staal and Brendan Smith, please?

Assuming that the team that trades for Brendan Smith intends to buy him out the model expects the cost to trade him to range from a 2nd in the middle, to a late first in the upper end, and a 3rd on the lower end. Because Smith was so poor play wise I don't believe it's fair to include his player value as that throws his value pretty out of whack and suggest the cost would be something like a Kratsov level prospect.

Staal would be a little more expensive to move than Smith. Again I'm assuming that Staal is bought out and not actually suiting up for his new team. In this case it would cost a late first (21-31) in the middle, a middle first (11-20) on the high end, and a 2nd on the low end.

While I used picks in this example some prospects would also work. So Lias Andersson might carry the value of a 2nd, Chytil that of a mid to late 1st, Miller & Kratsov I'd have as mid 1sts as well. My general rule for valuing prospects was to just give players the value of the pick they were selected with unless they've really impressed or unimpressed since their selection.