The case for buying out Josh Norris this summer

[Micklebot]

If we're able to buy him out within the rules I absolutely would. Hoping for him to come back at a 35+g form is just too wishful for a team that needs to make strides and make the playoffs. That $8 million in cap space can make us so much better. Right now, Norris is our 3C or if he's shifted over as a winger, he's a luxury. I'd rather spend his cap hit on a combination of a goalie, RD, or solid bottom 6 guy.

And if any other player gets salty about it, tell them to stfu because this isn't a friends club, its a professional hockey organization where difficult decisions have to be made to ensure on ice success.

My expectation is he'll come back playing similar to how he did this past season, but hopefully not blowing out his shoulder again...

So... 16g, 30pts in 50 games, that's a 25g 50 pts pace or thereabouts, certainly not worth a near 8 mil contract, but that's coming off missing camp and all offseason to recovery, you can expect some improvement in future seasons, so lets say 30g 60 pts per 82 is the new Norris.

He's probably worth about 5-6 mil if healthy. That to me suggests buying him out opens up enough money to get a similar player, but without the elevated health risk, so I get the desire to buy him out, it would certainly be the safe play.

What's the upside of keeping him around, well, if he does manage to play up to his past performance, a 45g 70 pts center that's responsible defensively and good at faceoffs is certainly worth the 8 mil contract,

 

[bicboi64]

So... 16g, 30pts in 50 games, that's a 25g 50 pts pace or thereabouts, certainly not worth a near 8 mil contract, but that's coming off missing camp and all offseason to recovery, you can expect some improvement in future seasons, so lets say 30g 60 pts per 82 is the new Norris.

He's probably worth about 5-6 mil if healthy. That to me suggests buying him out opens up enough money to get a similar player, but without the elevated health risk, so I get the desire to buy him out, it would certainly be the safe play.

What's the upside of keeping him around, well, if he does manage to play up to his past performance, a 45g 70 pts center that's responsible defensively and good at faceoffs is certainly worth the 8 mil contract,

Absolutely valid points, but I'd rather gamble his production being replaced by FA or ELC contracts from players we draft and spend his caphit on getting legitimate upgrades on goalies, bottom 6, RD, etc..

I'd love a 30g30a defensively responsible good faceoff C in Norris, but would be comfortable betting on him if we weren't so many years into the rebuild.

 

[Micklebot]

Absolutely valid points, but I'd rather gamble his production being replaced by FA or ELC contracts from players we draft and spend his caphit on getting legitimate upgrades on goalies, bottom 6, RD, etc..

I'd love a 30g30a defensively responsible good faceoff C in Norris, but would be comfortable betting on him if we weren't so many years into the rebuild.

I think Pinto (and to a much lesser degree, Greig) made him expendable, if we didn't have either of them, I'd be hesitant to move on from him and expect to be able to fill that number 2 spot.

Health is really the big issue, but even if he was healthy, there'd be an argument to move on from him and use the resources (capspace and picks) on other needs.

 

[Larionov]

I think the moment of truth for Norris is coming fairly soon. If he isn't ready to go at camp then he will go on LTIR to start the season, and I think it is a pretty fair assumption that he may simply stay there. In order to come off LTIR the club is going to want to make sure that the shoulder has full range of motion and can withstand contact. How many people here are confident that's ever going to be the case ever again? I've said it for a while - I think Norris's career might be over. That sucks because he seems like a great guy who is well liked by all the boys, but three major surgeries on the same joint combined with seemingly innocent collisions causing major damage doesn't exactly fill you full of confidence. I'll happily eat my plate of crow if he comes back strong, but it does not look good...

 

[JungleBeat]

Average size, average speed, average playing, average physicality.

Only think that was not average was his shot. Now that's compromised with his weak shoulder.

 

[PlayOn]

Bad contract
Should have been bridged

I worry less about whether someone is overpaid and more about their value to the team.

Right now the issue is more or less that we don’t really know where he fits in the line up. He was moved on the PP from where he once excelled and we don’t know if that was due to his shoulder/not being able to shoot properly. He was surpassed by Stützle and then Pinto at C. It’s safe to say if he can’t regain his spot then he’s going to have a tough time ever living up to his contract.

But this team also just hasn’t really gelled all that well up front. Tkachuk, Norris and Batherson worked so well in the Covid season and haven’t clicked since. Stützle, Giroux and Tkachuk didn’t work last season after looking great the year before. Now Tkachuk, Pinto and Batherson looked great together but who knows if that lasts. I also think maybe Brady doesn’t get enough credit, because everyone looks better with him.

Norris just has to find his spot in the line up. Maybe he can be Stu’s winger, I don’t know. If he can find a fit you can live with him being overpaid. Otherwise it’ll be tough.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

My expectation is he'll come back playing similar to how he did this past season, but hopefully not blowing out his shoulder again...

So... 16g, 30pts in 50 games, that's a 25g 50 pts pace or thereabouts, certainly not worth a near 8 mil contract, but that's coming off missing camp and all offseason to recovery, you can expect some improvement in future seasons, so lets say 30g 60 pts per 82 is the new Norris.

He's probably worth about 5-6 mil if healthy. That to me suggests buying him out opens up enough money to get a similar player, but without the elevated health risk, so I get the desire to buy him out, it would certainly be the safe play.

What's the upside of keeping him around, well, if he does manage to play up to his past performance, a 45g 70 pts center that's responsible defensively and good at faceoffs is certainly worth the 8 mil contract,

Does another injury to that shoulder do his career in? He was so tentative .. not at all like he was when he first broke in. His big one timer on the PP that in large part got him that contract was not a weapon. I am hoping he can play hard and be a 55-60 pt player. If so he is moveable and/or he can help this team. He was off last year and its really hard to evaluate him positively.

 

[lancepitlick]

I'm sure the Sens have a better understanding of his medical status. Best case scenario for Sens is that he either is able to play normally again with no further issues, or any additional injury to that shoulder is career ending. The constant in/out and rehabbing means you have a $8m guy playing like a $3m guy indefinitely.

You'd think Staois would have a better understanding from the team doctors.

Can he dislocate it again and still get surgery/rehab back?

 

[Micklebot]

Does another injury to that shoulder do his career in? He was so tentative .. not at all like he was when he first broke in. His big one timer on the PP that in large part got him that contract was not a weapon. I am hoping he can play hard and be a 55-60 pt player. If so he is moveable and/or he can help this team. He was off last year and its really hard to evaluate him positively.

I think him being tentative is the result of the surgery not being successful, but I could be wrong. My hope is that the current surgery will get him back closer to his pre-injury ways, but who knows.

Even with his tentative play, he was pacing at 50pts and 25 goals, that's not nothing. I really hope he can get back to trusting his shoulder, and being able to fire off one-timers the way he could.

I think the worst case is he continues to be tentative, and works his way down the lineup, with Pinto playing the way he has, that takes away a lot of opportunity from Norris, he won't be a 25g-50pts guy playing 3rd line mins, and getting 2nd PP time.

 

[Agent Zub]

the sad thing is that Josh Norris was our only core forward who played a "Pro" game.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think him being tentative is the result of the surgery not being successful, but I could be wrong. My hope is that the current surgery will get him back closer to his pre-injury ways, but who knows.

Even with his tentative play, he was pacing at 50pts and 25 goals, that's not nothing. I really hope he can get back to trusting his shoulder, and being able to fire off one-timers the way he could.

I think the worst case is he continues to be tentative, and works his way down the lineup, with Pinto playing the way he has, that takes away a lot of opportunity from Norris, he won't be a 25g-50pts guy playing 3rd line mins, and getting 2nd PP time.

Without breaking down the points.. My concerns were not the scoring it was in his willingness to engage.. I think even healthy if his points dropped but he was a strong two way player that worked in possession and engaged hard in puck battles... he would have helped and contributed more .. He has the talent to get his points .. its the rest of his game we need to get better ... Most of last year he was played in the top 6 and hid play did not earn that. He will have to going forward.

Going back to Connor Brown .. as well.. to me its not about the points .. which are nice but his no quit , high octane motor play with decent skill to possess pucks on the cycle and positional 2 way play is what matters..

 

[Micklebot]

Without breaking down the points.. My concerns were not the scoring it was in his willingness to engage.. I think even healthy if his points dropped but he was a strong two way player that worked in possession and engaged hard in puck battles... he would have helped and contributed more .. He has the talent to get his points .. its the rest of his game we need to get better ... Most of last year he was played in the top 6 and hid play did not earn that. He will have to going forward.

Going back to Connor Brown .. as well.. to me its not about the points .. which are nice but his no quit , high octane motor play with decent skill to possess pucks on the cycle and positional 2 way play is what matters..

I agree, I think the tentative play is a bigger issue than the drop in production, I also think the tentative play all boils down to his shoulder not being "right". if he can get that shoulder feeling stable, I think it will go a long way towards his level of play.

 

[Larionov]

I'm sure the Sens have a better understanding of his medical status. Best case scenario for Sens is that he either is able to play normally again with no further issues, or any additional injury to that shoulder is career ending. The constant in/out and rehabbing means you have a $8m guy playing like a $3m guy indefinitely.

You'd think Staois would have a better understanding from the team doctors.

Can he dislocate it again and still get surgery/rehab back?

Not a doctor, but my understanding is that every time they operate, they essentially have to choose between range of motion and strength/stability - can't have both. I know guys who have blown out their shoulders, and that is the tradeoff - to get strength and stability, a lot of range of motion got compromised. And, each time they have to operate, it gets tougher and tougher.

I remember when Erin McLeod, goalie for the Canadian women's soccer team, tore her ACL in her knee for the third time. (I think it was 2016). She was advised by a doctor that it was probably time to retire. She wanted to keep going, but she never did quite do it at the elite level again. By the time they do the ACL surgery for the third time they now have to use either a part from a cadaver or a synthetic ligament, and the surgery becomes more complex due to bone loss.

To me, the silence from management on Norris speaks volumes, as does the fact that we haven't heard from Norris himself. You'll note a distinct lack of Instagram videos of him training, skating, etc. I'd love to see an update soon...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Not a doctor, but my understanding is that every time they operate, they essentially have to choose between range of motion and strength/stability - can't have both. I know guys who have blown out their shoulders, and that is the tradeoff - to get strength and stability, a lot of range of motion got compromised. And, each time they have to operate, it gets tougher and tougher.

I remember when Erin McLeod, goalie for the Canadian women's soccer team, tore her ACL in her knee for the third time. (I think it was 2016). She was advised by a doctor that it was probably time to retire. She wanted to keep going, but she never did quite do it at the elite level again. By the time they do the ACL surgery for the third time they now have to use either a part from a cadaver or a synthetic ligament, and the surgery becomes more complex due to bone loss.

To me, the silence from management on Norris speaks volumes, as does the fact that we haven't heard from Norris himself. You'll note a distinct lack of Instagram videos of him training, skating, etc. I'd love to see an update soon...

Drew Brees is a fascinating one. He can't throw with his right arm anymore because of the 2005 injury, yet he was able to finish his career.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not a doctor, but my understanding is that every time they operate, they essentially have to choose between range of motion and strength/stability - can't have both. I know guys who have blown out their shoulders, and that is the tradeoff - to get strength and stability, a lot of range of motion got compromised. And, each time they have to operate, it gets tougher and tougher.

I remember when Erin McLeod, goalie for the Canadian women's soccer team, tore her ACL in her knee for the third time. (I think it was 2016). She was advised by a doctor that it was probably time to retire. She wanted to keep going, but she never did quite do it at the elite level again. By the time they do the ACL surgery for the third time they now have to use either a part from a cadaver or a synthetic ligament, and the surgery becomes more complex due to bone loss.

To me, the silence from management on Norris speaks volumes, as does the fact that we haven't heard from Norris himself. You'll note a distinct lack of Instagram videos of him training, skating, etc. I'd love to see an update soon...

You rarely hear of off season surgery news update, on any team.
How is Chabot surgery rehab going.

 

[dumbdick]

An overlooked point with norris is that when healthy he pushes guys like Greig and Pinto down the depth chart and makes it much easier to sign them to affordable contracts.

Good teams benefit from this kind of depth in a bunch of ways. Prospects can develop longer, enter in lesser roles and get signed after they're more proven and less risky.

If we were the Leafs we'd probably be talking about buying out Nick Robertson's $8M contract instead of Norris'.

 

[Micklebot]

Average size, average speed, average playing, average physicality.

Only think that was not average was his shot. Now that's compromised with his weak shoulder.

And yet he was playing at a 70 pts, 45 goal pace before blowing out his shoulder. Either that's one hell of a shot or maybe you're underrating him.

 

[bert]

I think the real caveat is, what's going on between his ears? When he was playing last year, he was noticeably trying to avoid contact. Was it because the shoulder was hurting, or was it because he didn't trust his shoulder or was he instructed to baby his shoulder? And is it something he can get past mentally?

Even if he comes back 100% healthy...if he can't get past the mental hurdle of putting that shoulder through it's paces, then we're in for a long, painful ride with that contract. And the hard part is...no one will really know how he'll react until he's in a dozen games and gives 'n take a few big hits.

Great post. Agreed on all accounts, the sens are in a really tricky situation and I believe he cannot be bought out based on the current injury. I hate to say it but the way its trending I dont think he ever gets back to what he was. I was told that he will always have discomfort. It might get to the point where it is in fact career ending.

 

[bert]

And yet he was playing at a 70 pts, 45 goal pace before blowing out his shoulder. Either that's one hell of a shot or maybe you're underrating him.

He was a much better player than many like to suggest. He was a very good defensive player and actually did have a physical competitive edge. I do think that ship has permanently sailed though, this isnt the same Norris unfortunately. This buy out probably does make sense but its simply not possible. I personally hate buy outs, burning cap like that is crazy. It handicaps a team tremendously. But in some situations you have no choice. Dorion sure has put this organization in some terrible positions moving forward.

I also think its interesting how so many posters just expect ownership to foot these massive buy out bills. The sens dont generate crazy income they arent the Leafs, Habs or Rangers, this is a small market team. Posters want them to spend to the cap, buy out all the problems, hire the most expensive coach, build a new arena while they have one of the lowest season ticket bases in the league. Money doesnt grow on trees folks.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

He was a much better player than many like to suggest. He was a very good defensive player and actually did have a physical competitive edge. I do think that ship has permanently sailed though, this isnt the same Norris unfortunately. This buy out probably does make sense but its simply not possible. I personally hate buy outs, burning cap like that is crazy. It handicaps a team tremendously. But in some situations you have no choice. Dorion sure has put this organization in some terrible positions moving forward.

I also think its interesting how so many posters just expect ownership to foot these massive buy out bills. The sens dont generate crazy income they arent the Leafs, Habs or Rangers, this is a small market team. Posters want them to spend to the cap, buy out all the problems, hire the most expensive coach, build a new arena while they have one of the lowest season ticket bases in the league. Money doesnt grow on trees folks.

I dont think the spirit of your point is incorrect about ownership of small market teams and how they are able or willing to use money.

With that said, that might actually be an argument for a buyout in this specific instance.

There are two factors that could influence they which aren't there with most regular buyouts (re: Korpisalo).
1) The savings at 2/3 would be substantial.
2) There is a chance that Norris is not covered by insurance if his shoulder was considered a pre-existing condition. Even if he is covered, the Senators are still on the hook for part of his salary that isnt much different than a buyout.

We don't know the answer to #2 unless someone in the media asks Staios and Staios actually answers. But even if he is insured, the costs are going to be similar to a u26 buyout just structured differently.

Norris is a unique situation because of the injury history and likelihood of becoming a future LTIRetirement contract. There is no clean way out of the contract.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I dont think the spirit of your point is incorrect about ownership of small market teams and how they are able or willing to use money.

With that said, that might actually be an argument for a buyout in this specific instance.

There are two factors that could influence they which aren't there with most regular buyouts (re: Korpisalo).
1) The savings at 2/3 would be substantial.
2) There is a chance that Norris is not covered by insurance if his shoulder was considered a pre-existing condition. Even if he is covered, the Senators are still on the hook for part of his salary that isnt much different than a buyout.

We don't know the answer to #2 unless someone in the media asks Staios and Staios actually answers. But even if he is insured, the costs are going to be similar to a u26 buyout just structured differently.

Norris is a unique situation because of the injury history and likelihood of becoming a future LTIRetirement contract. There is no clean way out of the contract.

It’s not likely point 1 is possible,
pretty sure injured players can’t be put on waivers.
Not sure an injured player can be bought , but if can’t go on waivers, then definitely can’t be bought out either.
They expect Norris will be ready for camp .

But all I could find was

Can anything keep a team from buying a player out?​

By all reports, you cannot buy out an injured player without their permission. There is nothing explicitly about this in the buy-out rules in the CBA, but it's something that has been widely reported over the years from multiple, reputable sources, so if there's smoke there is probably fire. It is very likely linked to the waiver requirements.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s not likely point 1 is possible,
pretty sure injured players can’t be put on waivers.
Not sure an injured player can be bought , but if can’t go on waivers, then definitely can’t be bought out either.
They expect Norris will be ready for camp .

But all I could find was

Can anything keep a team from buying a player out?​

By all reports, you cannot buy out an injured player without their permission. There is nothing explicitly about this in the buy-out rules in the CBA, but it's something that has been widely reported over the years from multiple, reputable sources, so if there's smoke there is probably fire. It is very likely linked to the waiver requirements.

Logically, if you could buy out injured players someone (Arz?) would have bought out a LTIRetired player by now to save some money.

I think the current system has issues, a short term injury or offseason surgery shouldn't be able to block a buyout, maybe just delay it until the player is cleared to play.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

It’s not likely point 1 is possible,
pretty sure injured players can’t be put on waivers.
Not sure an injured player can be bought , but if can’t go on waivers, then definitely can’t be bought out either.
They expect Norris will be ready for camp .

But all I could find was

Can anything keep a team from buying a player out?​

By all reports, you cannot buy out an injured player without their permission. There is nothing explicitly about this in the buy-out rules in the CBA, but it's something that has been widely reported over the years from multiple, reputable sources, so if there's smoke there is probably fire. It is very likely linked to the waiver requirements.

It already has been established that he cannot be bought out if injured.

My points are only applicable if a buyout ends up being possible this summer.

 

[OD99]

I think the real caveat is, what's going on between his ears? When he was playing last year, he was noticeably trying to avoid contact. Was it because the shoulder was hurting, or was it because he didn't trust his shoulder or was he instructed to baby his shoulder? And is it something he can get past mentally?

Even if he comes back 100% healthy...if he can't get past the mental hurdle of putting that shoulder through it's paces, then we're in for a long, painful ride with that contract. And the hard part is...no one will really know how he'll react until he's in a dozen games and gives 'n take a few big hits.

I don't think he ever trusted the shoulder, and it seems like those feelings were validated. Originally, he was going to be ready for training camp, then the beginning of the season. It seems like it never felt right, because it never was right.

If this surgeon does as well with Norris as his track record suggests, then he could certainly come back in lots of time and play like the old Norris.

I mean, he wasn't even taking 1-timers and they had him on his off wing. I think he has loads or room for improvement with that bad wing.

 

[Cosmix]

I expect him to come back next season, play tentatively and soft, get injured again during the season and go on LTIR. That could be the end of his hockey career. Hopefully his contract will be covered by insurance.