The case for buying out Josh Norris this summer

[KevinRedkey]

Josh Norris was drafted 7yrs ago and has never played more than 66 games in a season. He has 38 points over his last 2 seasons combined, and hasn't sniffed the level of play that snagged him a 7.950 cap hit, which he singed almost 2yrs ago.

Unfortunately, we can't send him to Robidas island because his injuries are not quite career-threatening, so he's always scheduled to be back at some point. This means his 7.950 cap hit can't be used on someone else while he gets healthy - becasue we'd go over the cap when Josh innevitably plays a few more games before tweaking his glass frame again.

This is the last off-season where he can be bought out for 1/3 of his contract instead of 2/3. The buyout would look like this, and I persoanlly think it's something we NEED to do.

The cap peanlty is minimal, and we can very likely sign a UFA to replace Norris for less than the yearly savings - and he'll actually play. This makes the Sens better now and in the future. The only potential downside is if you believe Norris will get healthy AND get back to his level of play from 2021. At this point, that's a gamble I'm not willing to take - as the buyout in 2025 onwards is much tougher to swallow.

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[ACLEVERNAME]

Didn't realize he was still in that 1/3 window. Never would have considered it before but you've got me thinking OP.

 

[Micklebot]

Well, he's currently recovering from surgery so not eligible.

There's a chance he could get cleared for the second buyout window if we go to arbitration with somebody, but realistically he could probably just drag things out by saying he's still feeling pain or his range of motion hasn't yet returned,

Best bet is to assume he isn't eligible until proven otherwise

 

[GCK]

He can’t be bought out if his shoulder isn’t healed.

 

[BigRig4]

Or just wait for him to inevitably hurt the shoulder again and get 8 million in LTIR space

 

[Senscore]

Objection, your honour

 

[JungleBeat]

Do it.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He’s way more valuable to us as a player if he can regain his form, than he would be as a buy out candidate in my opinion.

Besides, I think it has horrible optic to buy out a really good player who has been injured a few times playing for you who is working hard to get back to the team.

For a team that needs all of the good faith and positive word of mouth it would be a bad move in my opinion, and that’s without the possible repercussions with Brady.

Consider that we already went through this with Chara when we traded Hossa and look what that cost us in the end; two HHOF calibre players.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Non factor with the injury making him ineligible.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Shitty situation with Norris and for Norris.
Get him healed up, see how he does and go from there.

 

[Xspyrit]

If he could get back to his 2021-22 level both in health and play, that would be a huge boost to the rebuild

I seriously don't know what they should and will do with him

 

[PlayOn]

As mentioned, he can’t be bought out. This is one of those things that can only be resolved with time. There is nothing to be done with Norris but to wait and watch it unfold.

I think the risk there is mainly medical, ie will his shoulder hold up. The Sens would know a lot more about this than we do as they proceed. But Norris is a smart player - assuming he can regain his strength (it’ll take time), he will be fine imo. Although his defensive game has regressed since his rookie season, I don’t think it tells the whole story. For much of his sophomore season he was all we had down the middle as Stützle was a LW and Pinto/White got hurt. And then he’s basically been hurt since. I think he ultimately finds his way to being a 30+ goal guy with a strong 200 ft game. If he’s still a centre, that’s a really valuable player. Still good even if he’s a winger.

I think he came back last year and wasn’t able to do what he was used to and struggled to adjust. And then I think it shot his confidence, he was fumbling a lot of pucks in the offensive zone on pretty basic plays. I think these things will naturally improve over time assuming good health, he is just going to have to work within his limitations until he can regain his strength.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

They could take someone like Boris Katchouk to arbitration to open that second buyout window. There isn't a guarantee that he would be cleared by then, but based on timelines we have been given it is at least a slight possibility.

I would buy him out assuming the following is true:

1. There is no trade market for him.
2. His shoulder is ground meat, but not enough for LTIRetirement.

It's basically as close as possible to a get out of jail free card because of the combination of Norris qualifying for the 1/3rd ratio, and the team receiving a cap credit for paying Norris less than his cap hit in the few years he played on the contract. Because the total dead cap in years 1-4 is minimal, instead of it being a 12 year buyout, it's really an 8 year buyout that doesn't start for another 4 seasons.

By the time the 8 years at 1.5M hits, the cap will be in the 100-120 million range. The way I would look at a buyout is that we're opening up 8M per season to use on the roster spot of Norris for the next 4 seasons at the expense of having about 1.5M per season on the books for 8 seasons after that.

If this season is do or die time with Brady and Giroux, opening up 8 million could be the difference between adding another star player or not. Or even filling 2 different roles that we badly need filled instead of 1 with Norris, where his effectiveness might be questionable due to the timing of his recovery.

 

[KevinRedkey]

With Chychrun, the Sens have ~11.600 million left to sign Pinto, and 3 other less important roles including Brannstrom. That's with Norris out to start the year, which means we are down a top-6 winger to begin the season.

With a Norris buyout, the Sens would have closer to ~19.600 which is more than enough to re-sign everyone as well as a Norris replacement like Toffoli, Marchessault, Stephenson, Taravainen, etc... or even a big fish like Guentzel, Kane, or Reinhart if the cards allow it.

He can’t be bought out if his shoulder isn’t healed.

Not to call you out specifically by any means - but it seems it's one of those things everyone believes without ever fact checking. I don't believe "he can't be bought out because he's injured' thing is real. I haven't been able to find anyting of the sort in the CBA, and I've looked pretty extensively. No one has ever shown proof of it and It's also not stated on any of the usual sites like CapFriendly.

Or just wait for him to inevitably hurt the shoulder again and get 8 million in LTIR space

This doesn't work because he'll come back, and you're over the cap if you brought someone in. In essence, the Sens have 8 million less cap than every other team, and this will be the 3rd year in a row of it.

With 8 million we could sign pretty much any UFA defeceman, or almost any forward. Either of which are not only better than Norris - but will also freaking play and contribute to winning games.

 

[Tuna99]

I’m a big Norris fan, best thing is he comes back healthy and plays full time. Even if his production doesn’t settle on what we hoped for and he becomes a 2nd/3rd line depth guy what 20G-20A and isn’t a top PP guy I stilll want him on the team.

You can’t expect every contract you sign to be perfectly balanced. Norris might show he’s overpaid a bit but who cares if he’s overpaid by $2-$3 million, Brady and Sandy are $11 million dollar player and nobody is on here asking for them to get a raise.

 

[DJB]

Even when he was healthy Norris wasn’t worth that contract.

That buyout is pretty reasonable.

 

[Micklebot]

Even when he was healthy Norris wasn’t worth that contract.

That buyout is pretty reasonable.

He was healthy for 5 games under the contract, since then he's perpetually coming off surgery.

The last time he was fully healthy, he was pacing at 44 goals, top 15 in goals per game.

There's a fair argument to be made about whether he can ever get fully healthy again, but it really seems like people are forgetting how well he was playing to earn that deal.

 

[robsenz]

Damaged goods, such a shame.

 

[dumbdick]

Sens would need to pull off a risky "Reverse Lupol".

Doctor up a photo of him snowboarding and then say "Look Gary, he's fine!"

 

[Micklebot]

Not to call you out specifically by any means - but it seems it's one of those things everyone believes without ever fact checking. I don't believe "he can't be bought out because he's injured' thing is real. I haven't been able to find anyting of the sort in the CBA, and I've looked pretty extensively. No one has ever shown proof of it and It's also not stated on any of the usual sites like CapFriendly.

It's been reported in the past by multiple sources, Cowen even went to arbitration over it. My understanding is the interpretation disallowing a buyout due to injury has to with the requirement to waive a player, my understanding is you can't waive players who aren't cleared to play.

 

[Xspyrit]

He was healthy for 5 games under the contract, since then he's perpetually coming off surgery.

The last time he was fully healthy, he was pacing at 44 goals, top 15 in goals per game.

There's a fair argument to be made about whether he can ever get fully healthy again, but it really seems like people are forgetting how well he was playing to earn that deal.

Yeah, Norris had 47 goals in his last 91 games before that damn 2022-23 season and that was at 21-22 y/o facing top competition night after night

I hope he comes back 100% because he could be a prime Kesler out there

Sens would need to pull off a risky "Reverse Lupol".

Doctor up a photo of him snowboarding and then say "Look Gary, he's fine!"

Who is that Loopol player you're talking about?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I think the real caveat is, what's going on between his ears? When he was playing last year, he was noticeably trying to avoid contact. Was it because the shoulder was hurting, or was it because he didn't trust his shoulder or was he instructed to baby his shoulder? And is it something he can get past mentally?

Even if he comes back 100% healthy...if he can't get past the mental hurdle of putting that shoulder through it's paces, then we're in for a long, painful ride with that contract. And the hard part is...no one will really know how he'll react until he's in a dozen games and gives 'n take a few big hits.

 

[Alex1234]

As mentioned, he can’t be bought out. This is one of those things that can only be resolved with time. There is nothing to be done with Norris but to wait and watch it unfold.

I think the risk there is mainly medical, ie will his shoulder hold up. The Sens would know a lot more about this than we do as they proceed. But Norris is a smart player - assuming he can regain his strength (it’ll take time), he will be fine imo. Although his defensive game has regressed since his rookie season, I don’t think it tells the whole story. For much of his sophomore season he was all we had down the middle as Stützle was a LW and Pinto/White got hurt. And then he’s basically been hurt since. I think he ultimately finds his way to being a 30+ goal guy with a strong 200 ft game. If he’s still a centre, that’s a really valuable player. Still good even if he’s a winger.

I think he came back last year and wasn’t able to do what he was used to and struggled to adjust. And then I think it shot his confidence, he was fumbling a lot of pucks in the offensive zone on pretty basic plays. I think these things will naturally improve over time assuming good health, he is just going to have to work within his limitations until he can regain his strength.

Bad contract
Should have been bridged

 

[bicboi64]

If we're able to buy him out within the rules I absolutely would. Hoping for him to come back at a 35+g form is just too wishful for a team that needs to make strides and make the playoffs. That $8 million in cap space can make us so much better. Right now, Norris is our 3C or if he's shifted over as a winger, he's a luxury. I'd rather spend his cap hit on a combination of a goalie, RD, or solid bottom 6 guy.

And if any other player gets salty about it, tell them to stfu because this isn't a friends club, its a professional hockey organization where difficult decisions have to be made to ensure on ice success.

 

[Golden_Jet]

With Chychrun, the Sens have ~11.600 million left to sign Pinto, and 3 other less important roles including Brannstrom. That's with Norris out to start the year, which means we are down a top-6 winger to begin the season.

With a Norris buyout, the Sens would have closer to ~19.600 which is more than enough to re-sign everyone as well as a Norris replacement like Toffoli, Marchessault, Stephenson, Taravainen, etc... or even a big fish like Guentzel, Kane, or Reinhart if the cards allow it.

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Not to call you out specifically by any means - but it seems it's one of those things everyone believes without ever fact checking. I don't believe "he can't be bought out because he's injured' thing is real. I haven't been able to find anyting of the sort in the CBA, and I've looked pretty extensively. No one has ever shown proof of it and It's also not stated on any of the usual sites like CapFriendly.



This doesn't work because he'll come back, and you're over the cap if you brought someone in. In essence, the Sens have 8 million less cap than every other team, and this will be the 3rd year in a row of it.

With 8 million we could sign pretty much any UFA defeceman, or almost any forward. Either of which are not only better than Norris - but will also freaking play and contribute to winning games.

Needs to go through waivers as well for a buyout,
Can an injured player be put on waivers, let alone a buyout.