The Carolina Hurricanes and their recent draft strategy paying off dividends

[person5000]

Nadeau last yr looks like a steal

 

[Buttonwood]

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

I think this is the really interesting part to me - the quantity over quality approach (acknowledging there's some real quality there, but just in general, as a strategy) may not fit with a roster that's competitive now. There's only a few NHL development spots, not to mention finite AHL spots (at least it's an improvement on this year). Most players from NCAA/EU pro will need AHL time. Will there be a AHL log-jam from the NHL log-jam or will it just be survival of the fittest and everything be ok if they find 1 or 2 diamonds in the rough?

It's an interesting draft strategy question, but even more interesting prospect development question (which is less observable than draft). I'm guessing Dundon isn't employing a lot of player development resources.

 

[newsportsfan123]

I think this is the really interesting part to me - the quantity over quality approach (acknowledging there's some real quality there, but just in general, as a strategy) may not fit with a roster that's competitive now. There's only a few NHL development spots, not to mention finite AHL spots (at least it's an improvement on this year). Most players from NCAA/EU pro will need AHL time. Will there be a AHL log-jam from the NHL log-jam or will it just be survival of the fittest and everything be ok if they find 1 or 2 diamonds in the rough?

It's an interesting draft strategy question, but even more interesting prospect development question (which is less observable than draft). I'm guessing Dundon isn't employing a lot of player development resources.

I think quantity over quality is smart now because you have the potential to hit on multiple good players at once and the young players are blocked by veteran players. Development isn’t really an easy because it’s not like the prospects that Carolina have are lighting the world on fire like Nikishin. Most of these prospects need like 3-5 years. Nadeau and Unger Sorum are like the only prospects since Jarvis to come in and impress after a draft year. Nadeau looked good in his debut and is probably going to be a good one timer option and Sorum is a player that can play all lines. Most teams that are competitive don’t really draft anyway. Dallas did good with Bourque and Stankoven but they got really lucky due to COVID.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I think quantity over quality is smart now because you have the potential to hit on multiple good players at once and the young players are blocked by veteran players. Development isn’t really an easy because it’s not like the prospects that Carolina have are lighting the world on fire like Nikishin. Most of these prospects need like 3-5 years. Nadeau and Unger Sorum are like the only prospects since Jarvis to come in and impress after a draft year. Nadeau looked good in his debut and is probably going to be a good one timer option and Sorum is a player that can play all lines. Most teams that are competitive don’t really draft anyway. Dallas did good with Bourque and Stankoven but they got really lucky due to COVID.

Dallas got lucky with Johnston who exploded post COVID year and they absolutely stole Stankoven, who sat on the board too long. Hurricanes drafted Morrow (gamble at the time, looks to be a decent pick) and Heimosalmi (lol) ahead of Stankoven.

I was surprised to see Jackson Blake sign with Carolina after North Dakota got eliminated: there's a good chance he gets buried and doesn't get NHL time because there just aren't enough roster spots open.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Incredibly jealous of the way the Canes draft on day 2.

Most draft steals in the later rounds are high skill/IQ players with size/speed question marks, Russians that teams shy away from due to the risk of them not coming over, and goalies.

It's pretty obvious an analytical mind like Tulsky has done his research, as that's pretty much how he uses all of his day 2 picks

 

[Hale The Villain]

I have noticed the same, but it actually hasn't paid off. They drafted a ton of fallers but none of them have actually made an impact in the NHL. Think Gunler, Tieksola, Honka, Pashin, Nybeck, Koivunen, Robidas, Perevalov, Lucius, Rykov and this year Artamonov and Poirier.

These are all names I remember were hyped on HF and other social media.

The only steal they seem to have gotten is Nikishin.

Koivunen is going to be a good NHLer, Lucius just had his second PPG NCAA season at age 19 and Rykov has had an excellent D+1 season.

Lots of those guys will be busts, but the reality is that the vast majority of prospects drafted on day 2 will bust, so why not try to swing for the fences on a player that could actually end up a difference maker?

 

[Blueston]

Incredibly jealous of the way the Canes draft on day 2.

Most draft steals in the later rounds are high skill/IQ players with size/speed question marks, Russians that teams shy away from due to the risk of them not coming over, and goalies.

It's pretty obvious an analytical mind like Tulsky has done his research, as that's pretty much how he uses all of his day 2 picks

When will one of these picks actually have an impact? Because they've drafted a whole bunch of guys, many of whom I thought were great picks, but they haven't actually done anything for Canes. They actually did really well with those picks BEFORE the current regime got there, picking the core of current team, but under Dundon (and Tulsky) they haven't yet gotten any contribution from all these brilliant picks.

 

[Hale The Villain]

When will one of these picks actually have an impact? Because they've drafted a whole bunch of guys, many of whom I thought were great picks, but they haven't actually done anything for Canes. They actually did really well with those picks BEFORE the current regime got there, picking the core of current team, but under Dundon (and Tulsky) they haven't yet gotten any contribution from all these brilliant picks.

Most of that has to do with the fact that they only started to use this new draft strategy in 2019, and prospects take time to develop, particularly those selected on day 2.

Really only players selected in 2019 and 2020 should be playing in the NHL by now. 2019 was not a great draft for them, just ended up with Kotchetkov out of that class, but 2020 looks really good. Jarvis is a star, Nikishin is going to be a star, and I think Ponomarev and Seeley play some games.

There's a lot of promising talent in the pipeline from 2021-2024, but obviously it's going to take time for those prospects to develop. Can't blame them for not playing games already.

Also worth noting that the Canes have only selected higher than 28th overall once since 2019, which is when they took Jarvis 13th in 2020.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

When will one of these picks actually have an impact? Because they've drafted a whole bunch of guys, many of whom I thought were great picks, but they haven't actually done anything for Canes. They actually did really well with those picks BEFORE the current regime got there, picking the core of current team, but under Dundon (and Tulsky) they haven't yet gotten any contribution from all these brilliant picks.

Yes. Aho, Slavin, Pesce, Roy, Foegele quite decent.

From their current prospect pool I would say they are doing way better with defenseman than with forward. Morrow, Nikishin, Legault, Badinka. The forwards are mostly under sized prospects and average russian talent

 

[newsportsfan123]

Dallas got lucky with Johnston who exploded post COVID year and they absolutely stole Stankoven, who sat on the board too long. Hurricanes drafted Morrow (gamble at the time, looks to be a decent pick) and Heimosalmi (lol) ahead of Stankoven.

I was surprised to see Jackson Blake sign with Carolina after North Dakota got eliminated: there's a good chance he gets buried and doesn't get NHL time because there just aren't enough roster spots open.

Stankoven was mocked around where he went, also his COVID stats weren’t really impressive for his draft year. Furthermore, you should compare Dallas drafting to Carolina outside of that one year since 2019. Two of the hurricanes draft picks from the 2023 draft are about to make the team, so your point about the hurricanes burying him is just plain stupid. Also, how can you bury a player who hasn’t even played a single year of professional hockey it’s not like he is being blocked he literally hasn’t even really started his professional development.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Stankoven was mocked around where he went, also his COVID stats weren’t really impressive for his draft year. Furthermore, you should compare Dallas drafting to Carolina outside of that one year since 2019. Two of the hurricanes draft picks from the 2023 draft are about to make the team, so your point about the hurricanes burying him is just plain stupid. Also, how can you bury a player who hasn’t even played a single year of professional hockey it’s not like he is being blocked he literally hasn’t even really started his professional development.

Stankoven was the 3rd best forward in the Dub in 2019-20 behind Guenther and Sillinger. He was expected to go between 25 and 35, so he did fall. He played 6 games in the Dub COVID shortened bubble before going down to Frisco to the U18, where he was one of Canada's most effective all around players.

If you're going to make nuanced points about your own team, then I expect you to make nuanced points about other teams as well. Stankoven fell and Dallas is reaping the benefits while Carolina passed on him, it's that simple. Morrow might be a solid player in the league, we will see this season, while Heimosalmi hasn't progressed in Liiga.

 

[Fatass]

Canes lost a lot off their D in free agency. Not too sure young recently drafted guys will fill those mutes successfully.

 

[rubenflamshep]

Carolina's draft is really interesting. Post-2019 they've been one of the worst drafting teams, really only hitting on Jarvis:

BUT, overall in the last ten years, they're one of the best drafting teams:

And if you look at a lot of the guys they hit on (Pesce, Luostarinen, Geekie, etc.), they don't start producing at the NHL level until years 3+ post draft. So I think it's still a bit pre-mature to say anything about the last 4-5 years of drafting.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Canes lost a lot off their D in free agency. Not too sure young recently drafted guys will fill those mutes successfully.

And they already replaced them in free agency. They were never expecting any recently drafted prospects to step in to big roles this year. Morrow will get some games and Nikishin will come over next summer but those are the only guys expected to join the team any time soon.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

And they already replaced them in free agency. They were never expecting any recently drafted prospects to step in to big roles this year. Morrow will get some games and Nikishin will come over next summer but those are the only guys expected to join the team any time soon.

So will a lot of the talent in the prospect pool be traded like Koivunen, Ponomarev, & Lucius were? If you don't have spots for them, might as well make more "all in" moves if you're going for it.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

So will a lot of the talent in the prospect pool be traded like Koivunen, Ponomarev, & Lucius were? If you don't have spots for them, might as well make more "all in" moves if you're going for it.

I was only referring to defensive prospects as that’s what the person I was quoting was talking about. Burns and Orlov are ufa’s next year when Morrow and Nikishin can step in.

Already more room at forward and Tulsky has openly stated they need to leave space for prospects to challenge for a spot in the lineup.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Stankoven was the 3rd best forward in the Dub in 2019-20 behind Guenther and Sillinger. He was expected to go between 25 and 35, so he did fall. He played 6 games in the Dub COVID shortened bubble before going down to Frisco to the U18, where he was one of Canada's most effective all around players.

If you're going to make nuanced points about your own team, then I expect you to make nuanced points about other teams as well. Stankoven fell and Dallas is reaping the benefits while Carolina passed on him, it's that simple. Morrow might be a solid player in the league, we will see this season, while Heimosalmi hasn't progressed in Liiga.

3rd best forward in the WHL in 2019-20?

Stankoven was the 3rd best forward in the Dub in 2019-20 behind Guenther and Sillinger. He was expected to go between 25 and 35, so he did fall. He played 6 games in the Dub COVID shortened bubble before going down to Frisco to the U18, where he was one of Canada's most effective all around players.

If you're going to make nuanced points about your own team, then I expect you to make nuanced points about other teams as well. Stankoven fell and Dallas is reaping the benefits while Carolina passed on him, it's that simple. Morrow might be a solid player in the league, we will see this season, while Heimosalmi hasn't progressed in Liiga.

He wasn’t the 3rd best WHL player in 19/20. I assume you are talking about out of U17 players though. Also, he only fell 10 spots probably due to size and didn’t put up any crazy numbers to indicate that he should’ve went higher. I don’t get why you’re only talking about this draft when outside of this draft Carolina has done extremely well.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Carolina's draft is really interesting. Post-2019 they've been one of the worst drafting teams, really only hitting on Jarvis:View attachment 892516
BUT, overall in the last ten years, they're one of the best drafting teams:View attachment 892518
And if you look at a lot of the guys they hit on (Pesce, Luostarinen, Geekie, etc.), they don't start producing at the NHL level until years 3+ post draft. So I think it's still a bit pre-mature to say anything about the last 4-5 years of drafting.

This is exactly the point I’m trying to make. Teams that draft in the later rounds typically won’t reap the benefits until later. It takes time to hit on rd 2 and up most of the time. Most of the teams are a mix of bad teams and team with high picks. Washington basically had no depth, so youth was easier to implement into the lineup. NYR had a 1OA pick and mostly hit on the other 1rdp. The other teams simply has had no depth. Carolina has the problem of having a 3rd line that will basically never be replaced until retirement. The Martinook-Staal-Fast line which blocks a lot of young players and then Carolina has signed FA for bottom 6 roles. This year Carolina could have one two prospects in Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, Sorum make the roster which could significantly boost their numbers in the model. Next year with Burns potentially retiring and Orlov’s contract ending you could see Nikishin and Morrow slot in which would also boost it.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

3rd best forward in the WHL in 2019-20?

He wasn’t the 3rd best WHL player in 19/20. I assume you are talking about out of U17 players though. Also, he only fell 10 spots probably due to size and didn’t put up any crazy numbers to indicate that he should’ve went higher. I don’t get why you’re only talking about this draft when outside of this draft Carolina has done extremely well.

3rd best 2003 birthday forward I meant

This is exactly the point I’m trying to make. Teams that draft in the later rounds typically won’t reap the benefits until later. It takes time to hit on rd 2 and up most of the time. Most of the teams are a mix of bad teams and team with high picks. Washington basically had no depth, so youth was easier to implement into the lineup. NYR had a 1OA pick and mostly hit on the other 1rdp. The other teams simply has had no depth. Carolina has the problem of having a 3rd line that will basically never be replaced until retirement. The Martinook-Staal-Fast line which blocks a lot of young players and then Carolina has signed FA for bottom 6 roles. This year Carolina could have one two prospects in Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, Sorum make the roster which could significantly boost their numbers in the model. Next year with Burns potentially retiring and Orlov’s contract ending you could see Nikishin and Morrow slot in which would also boost it.

That's the problem. Carolina has too many veterans blocking the prospects. Either you need to move out veterans to create open spots or use the prospect pool as assets as Waddell/Tulsky did in the Guentzel trade.