The Carolina Hurricanes and their recent draft strategy paying off dividends

[Discipline Daddy]

This is definitely threadworthy as the way the Canes operate at drafting is different than the other 31 teams. However, I'm hesitant to praise them too much as so few of the guys drafted under the current regime are NHL players. In 3 years if the college guys hit, then baby we got a stew goin'. But otherwise I'm assuming a lot of these promising players will never make it to the NHL. I like to point to a player like Ryan Bayda who you might assume would kill it in the NHL with his college stats at North Dakota. It's too early to tell which of the Canes draftees are Ryan Baydas.

What the Canes seemingly do is just throw a lot of darts at the board. Most of the time they'd rather trade down and get 2 2nds than a late 1st. They also tend to take "home run swing" draft picks rather than draft players with lower ceilings and higher floors.

 

[wetcoast]

2019:
Massimo Rizzo: One of the NCAA’s leading scorers

Antonni Honka: Solid defensive prospect with upside

Pyotor Kotchkov: One of the best young goalies in the world

Jamie Rees: Solid prospect with a projectable game

Patrik Puistola: Another solid prospect that is doing well in Liiga

5 potential NHLers there, 6 if you include Suzuki

2020:

Seth Jarvis: NHLer

Alexander Nikiskin: Best defensive prospect in the world

Noel Gunler: Promising kid playing his first full season in N/A

Ronan Seeley: Looks like an NHLer in a couple years

Vasili Ponomaryev: Solid in his first season in The AHL.

5 potential NHLers again, more if you ask other people

2021:

Scott Morrow: One of the best defensive prospects in the world.

Jackson Blake: Very solid prospect putting up impressive totals

Justin robidas: doing well in the QMJHL

3 potential NHLers, more if you ask other people

2022: too early but promising group

I haven't looked but when was the last time a team actually had 13 draft picks over a 3 year span become NHLers for any NHL team?

Heck even 10 is unlikely.

The term "solid prospect" just means that they haven't busted it's a big step to the NHL.

 

[Chainshot]

This is definitely threadworthy as the way the Canes operate at drafting is different than the other 31 teams. However, I'm hesitant to praise them too much as so few of the guys drafted under the current regime are NHL players. In 3 years if the college guys hit, then baby we got a stew goin'. But otherwise I'm assuming a lot of these promising players will never make it to the NHL. I like to point to a player like Ryan Bayda who you might assume would kill it in the NHL with his college stats at North Dakota. It's too early to tell which of the Canes draftees are Ryan Baydas.

What the Canes seemingly do is just throw a lot of darts at the board. Most of the time they'd rather trade down and get 2 2nds than a late 1st. They also tend to take "home run swing" draft picks rather than draft players with lower ceilings and higher floors.

The idea of taking more swings is very much a thing. I would like it if my favorite teams took that look and I have beaten the drum of taking high reward later round picks rather than just safe picks. Take someone with something dynamic to their game rather than just filler.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I don't really see their strategy as targeting fallers?

I thought moreso that they just value analytics and have been targeting skilled players and puck possession players. Regardless, they seem like they have done a good job with drafting the last few years.

Only 2 of the guys since 2019 have played NHL games so far though... so is this thread maybe a little premature?

That with trading down sounds kind of identical to Toronto. So far working well for them too.

 

[Tryamkin]

Carolina’s draft team values analytics and statistics way more than other franchises. This leads to them having lists closer to the public eye.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

9 of their 10 picks in the 2024 Draft are Europeans, going the European Pro route. The 1 Canadian was a massive faller, that being Justin Poirier out of the Q.

While their draft strategy looks good at first to internet scouts/general public, drafting so many Europeans is moderately risky. We know most European Pro route players tend to dislike spending much time in the A, as their dream/objective is to play in the NHL, or otherwise they'd rather go back home, make more money (than in the A) and live in a familiar culture & language.

Carolina was praised for taking Gunler, Nybeck, Pashin, etc and none of them look like anything. At least Nikishin, who wasn't widely praised at the time, is turning out.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Lol this is a terrible strategy. Still waiting for OP to explain exactly how it’s “paid dividends” for CAR.

Sure, if you count your chickens before they hatch, things always look promising. Habs fans do this all the time. In reality, it doesn’t work that way.

If CAR actually is employing the strategy outlined in the OP and it isn’t just coincidence, that’s hilarious and chances are it won’t end well.

If you look back historically, these type of players fall for good reason - they almost always end up being terrible picks for the team that does draft them.

To be clear, I’m talking about actual fallers - guys that trend down in rankings throughout the year, and drop even further on draft day, e.g., Eiserman, or Poirier from this year. I’m not talking about guys that slide a little bit due to draft floor dynamics, e.g., Buium.

If you want a good hindsight look as to how a team actually employing this strategy works out, take a look at the Canadiens 2012 draft.

Every single pick after Galchenyuk was a significant faller, a guy who “smelled funny” to other teams and was on the board significantly later when Timmins and the Habs gleefully scooped him up thinking they were making out like bandits. Timmins really thought he was the smartest guy in the room lmao.

Habs fans on here were over the moon about that draft. I remember several saying we were going to win the Cup because of it. Of course it didn’t take long for reality to set in.

Anyway, yeah CAR has had a few nice looking picks recently, but I don’t think the best of them have anything to do with this strategy. And like I said before, if that is their strategy, I don’t expect it to turn out well at all.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Lol this is a terrible strategy. Still waiting for OP to explain exactly how it’s “paid dividends” for CAR.

Sure, if you count your chickens before they hatch, things always look promising. Habs fans do this all the time. In reality, it doesn’t work that way.

If CAR actually is employing the strategy outlined in the OP and it isn’t just coincidence, that’s hilarious and chances are it won’t end well.

If you look back historically, these type of players fall for good reason - they almost always end up being terrible picks for the team that does draft them.

To be clear, I’m talking about actual fallers - guys that trend down in rankings throughout the year, and drop even further on draft day, e.g., Eiserman, or Poirier from this year. I’m not talking about guys that slide a little bit due to draft floor dynamics, e.g., Buium.

If you want a good hindsight look as to how a team actually employing this strategy works out, take a look at the Canadiens 2012 draft.

Every single pick after Galchenyuk was a significant faller, a guy who “smelled funny” to other teams and was on the board significantly later when Timmins and the Habs gleefully scooped him up thinking they were making out like bandits. Timmins really thought he was the smartest guy in the room lmao.

Habs fans on here were over the moon about that draft. I remember several saying we were going to win the Cup because of it. Of course it didn’t take long for reality to set in.

Anyway, yeah CAR has had a few nice looking picks recently, but I don’t think the best of them have anything to do with this strategy. And like I said before, if that is their strategy, I don’t expect it to turn out well at all.

Carolina doesn’t draft people that fall because they smelled funny to other teams though. They have drafted Russians that are of any size with nothing wrong with their personality. Also, they take waivers on players of smaller size like Poirier for example. I can list some players that were late round picks that at this moment are close to the NHL:

Felix Unger-Sorum (Almost made Canes roster after being the youngest player drafted in 2023)

Alexander Rykov (4th rd pick, nearly point per game in VHL which is extremely hard for U18 players, played his way to KHL where he scored 6 goals and 2 against in 29 KHL games)

Jackson Blake (4th rd pick, shorter player, but dominated once coming to the NCAA, hobey baker finalist)

Charles-Alexis Legault (5th rd pick, was seen as shutdown defender, but actually broke out as a two-way defenseman this past season)

Alexander Nikishin (3rd rd pick, many people saw him as a reach but this previous season had the most points as a defenseman in the KHL and defenseman of the year, seen as one of the best defensive prospects in Russian hockey history)

Not considering prospects like Koivunen who was traded to Pittsburgh. Prospects like Forsmark and Nystrom look good, but the latter is 22.

 

[Goptor]

They don't even use that strategy. its just dumb luck that it looks like that.

Carolina has a preference for players that can develop away from the AHL because they don't have an AHL team. That means a lot of NCAA and KHL players.

It just so happens that a lot of teams stay away from Russians because of the lack of transfer agreement.

Carolina puts a premium on Russians out of the KHL, rest of league sees them as negative and avoids drafting them. Carolina ends up with a bunch of KHL players atop their available draft lists.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Carolina doesn’t draft people that fall because they smelled funny to other teams though. They have drafted Russians that are of any size with nothing wrong with their personality. Also, they take waivers on players of smaller size like Poirier for example. I can list some players that were late round picks that at this moment are close to the NHL:

Felix Unger-Sorum (Almost made Canes roster after being the youngest player drafted in 2023)

Alexander Rykov (4th rd pick, nearly point per game in VHL which is extremely hard for U18 players, played his way to KHL where he scored 6 goals and 2 against in 29 KHL games)

Jackson Blake (4th rd pick, shorter player, but dominated once coming to the NCAA, hobey baker finalist)

Charles-Alexis Legault (5th rd pick, was seen as shutdown defender, but actually broke out as a two-way defenseman this past season)

Alexander Nikishin (3rd rd pick, many people saw him as a reach but this previous season had the most points as a defenseman in the KHL and defenseman of the year, seen as one of the best defensive prospects in Russian hockey history)

Not considering prospects like Koivunen who was traded to Pittsburgh. Prospects like Forsmark and Nystrom look good, but the latter is 22.

None of those are currently of any note to anyone except CAR fans, except Nikishin. And even he’s still a mystery box at this point. You’re counting your chickens before they hatch, just like I said in the post above.

You can talk up any NHL prospect and make them seem impressive. If they weren’t impressive players at lower levels and didn’t have a long list of accomplishments and highlights, they would never have been drafted by an NHL team.

Most often it doesn’t translate into NHL success, and that’s just the way it is. That’s especially the case for these “faller” type players. Like I said, they almost invariably turn out to be terrible picks.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

They don't even use that strategy. its just dumb luck that it looks like that.

Carolina has a preference for players that can develop away from the AHL because they don't have an AHL team. That means a lot of NCAA and KHL players.

It just so happens that a lot of teams stay away from Russians because of the lack of transfer agreement.

Carolina puts a premium on Russians out of the KHL, rest of league sees them as negative and avoids drafting them. Carolina ends up with a bunch of KHL players atop their available draft lists.

That was only one season. They are back with the Chicago wolves now.

 

[BKarchitect]

None of those are currently of any note to anyone except CAR fans, except Nikishin. And even he’s still a mystery box at this point. You’re counting your chickens before they hatch, just like I said in the post above.

You can talk up any NHL prospect and make them seem impressive. If they weren’t impressive players at lower levels and didn’t have a long list of accomplishments and highlights, they would never have been drafted by an NHL team.

Most often it doesn’t translate into NHL success, and that’s just the way it is. That’s especially the case for these “faller” type players. Like I said, they almost invariably turn out to be terrible picks.

I mean you’re overall point is not wrong but FUS is certainly a notable prospect. Made Team Sweden for the Workd Championships as an 18 year-old and a guy who missed this year’s draft by a day - no question in my mind he’s a top 15 prospect in this years crop.

A sure thing? No. Somebody to note? Absolutely.

 

[Number 57]

I have noticed the same, but it actually hasn't paid off. They drafted a ton of fallers but none of them have actually made an impact in the NHL. Think Gunler, Tieksola, Honka, Pashin, Nybeck, Koivunen, Robidas, Perevalov, Lucius, Rykov and this year Artamonov and Poirier.

These are all names I remember were hyped on HF and other social media.

The only steal they seem to have gotten is Nikishin.

 

[newsportsfan123]

I have noticed the same, but it actually hasn't paid off. They drafted a ton of fallers but none of them have actually made an impact in the NHL. Think Gunler, Tieksola, Honka, Pashin, Nybeck, Koivunen, Robidas, Perevalov, Lucius, Rykov and this year Artamonov and Poirier.

These are all names I remember were hyped on HF and other social media.

The only steal they seem to have gotten is Nikishin.

Bro just disregarded my comment, also half the people you listed are literally 3 years out of their draft year, and most of those failed because of size. Gunler, Honka, Robidas, Rykov are literally still playing in Carolina's system going to the AHL team. The others just got drafted.

 

[newsportsfan123]

None of those are currently of any note to anyone except CAR fans, except Nikishin. And even he’s still a mystery box at this point. You’re counting your chickens before they hatch, just like I said in the post above.

You can talk up any NHL prospect and make them seem impressive. If they weren’t impressive players at lower levels and didn’t have a long list of accomplishments and highlights, they would never have been drafted by an NHL team.

Most often it doesn’t translate into NHL success, and that’s just the way it is. That’s especially the case for these “faller” type players. Like I said, they almost invariably turn out to be terrible picks.

Isn’t that literally the point to all hockey fans, but to say Blake doesn’t have value is crazy when the Penguins obviously valued him highly in the Guentzel trade. The others are big risers and the reason for that is because they played like top 10 players in their respective age group, they also got signed to contracts too.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I have noticed the same, but it actually hasn't paid off. They drafted a ton of fallers but none of them have actually made an impact in the NHL. Think Gunler, Tieksola, Honka, Pashin, Nybeck, Koivunen, Robidas, Perevalov, Lucius, Rykov and this year Artamonov and Poirier.

These are all names I remember were hyped on HF and other social media.

The only steal they seem to have gotten is Nikishin.

They took Heimosalmi ahead of Stankoven which looks pretty terrible now. At least Morrow looks to be solid going forward, that pick was a gamble for various reasons.

I just think the strategy of taking so many European Pro guys, many of whom never come over, and many of the ones that do spend a year or two in the A and then go back home, is much riskier than the average online fan who just looks at pure skill would believe.

 

[Caser]

23 Russians taken by them since 2018 and out of them 4 have failed, 1 has been traded (so returned some value), 2 are full-time NHL players, everyone else are still legit prospects (including one of the top prospects in the World) - I'd say the investment doesn't look too bad so far, obviously time will tell.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

They target high value picks, so players rated higher, but dropped.

Then they target players heading to the NCAA, or Russia where the Canes will have more time to assess them.


I think it was pretty impressive they got the top rental and one of the best in a while without giving up a 1st.

They get their prospect pool full, so they can continue to either bring players in, or trade them for help now.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

They target high value picks, so players rated higher, but dropped.

Then they target players heading to the NCAA, or Russia where the Canes will have more time to assess them.


I think it was pretty impressive they got the top rental and one of the best in a while without giving up a 1st.

They get their prospect pool full, so they can continue to either bring players in, or trade them for help now.

They'll need to be more aggressive with using their pool in trades, as most of that pool that people love on draft day will become nothing of quality value in terms of NHLers.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't think it's at all clear that Canes drafting stategy under the current ownership hasn't been an abysmal failure. They have some interesting prospects, but since 2019 the cumulative NHL goal total of EVERY Canes pick not named Seth Jarvis is 1. And the guy who scored the 1 is now a Pen. So maybe they are smarter than the rest of league and enough of these picks will hit that it ends up paying off, but so far it seems like mostly wishful thinking.

 

[bleedgreen]

Jarvis is the only prospect that’s showed up and developed well. Nikishin looks great so I think that’ll be two. That’s it. Morrow is in the AHL and probably will get there.

While they don’t shy from fallers I don’t think that’s the main plan. They aim for higher skill guys who process the game quick. They don’t care if they’re small, and many of them are. They hope they can learn the other skills of the game that they lack and grow.

Many of their extra picks are late round picks which are total darts in the dark. So I don’t think they’re wasting those. I don’t know that it works much better than everyone else’s but we have a boatload of prospects. We’re throwing a lot of volume at the issue.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Another thing that people are missing is the sheer quantity of picks by Carolina. I guess they are using the law of average. If you have so many picks you are bound to hit at some point. They have one amazing guy in Jarvis (which was an obvious pick at that point of the draft). Two things, they don't seem to care about size and the russian 'factor'.

 

[newsportsfan123]

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

 

[bleedgreen]

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

People in this thread don’t understand that most of the players they drafted haven’t played because of a logjam. When you’re a good team it’s very unlikely prospects will get to play. You’ll see if the players they drafted are the real deal this season or next

The logjam will only get more interesting because most of the smaller, creative offensive minded players are guys Rod would probably never play if he has the choice. Rod isn’t going anywhere. The only ones he’d play are the ones that look like for sure top six players, when we leave a hole for such a player. Not an easy gig to land being a fifth rounder from Europe.

 

[theVladiator]

Another thing that people are missing is the sheer quantity of picks by Carolina. I guess they are using the law of average. If you have so many picks you are bound to hit at some point. They have one amazing guy in Jarvis (which was an obvious pick at that point of the draft). Two things, they don't seem to care about size and the russian 'factor'.

The law of averages is not it. In the trades the picks values are driven by those averages, so each trade ends up being a wash (based on the averages at least).

Trading down, trading up, trading sideways - it doesn't matter. The only "strategy" that works is simply being better at making picks than the other teams. That, and being lucky.