The Carolina Hurricanes and their recent draft strategy paying off dividends

[LeProspector]

So in the past few years, from the outside looking in, the Carolina Hurricanes have been employing a draft strategy that can be simplified by one statement:

Accumulate as many picks as possible and pick guys that are ”fallers” on draft day.

They have done this since 2019 I’d say and have a haul of solid draft picks since then. Going forward so we think more teams will employ this strategy or different variations to it?

Click to read more...

 

[Rebels57]

Eric Tulsky is probably the best GM in the league and he doesn't even officially hold that title

 

[Frk It]

I don't really see their strategy as targeting fallers?

I thought moreso that they just value analytics and have been targeting skilled players and puck possession players. Regardless, they seem like they have done a good job with drafting the last few years.

Only 2 of the guys since 2019 have played NHL games so far though... so is this thread maybe a little premature?

 

[Brodeur]

A few teams like to trade down and accumulate picks, others like to be aggressive and trade up if they see somebody falling. I think the Kings had a behind the scenes video for the 2021 Draft and their scouting director mentioned some teams having the opposite strategy (trade down for more picks) than the Kings, so it worked out in terms of finding a trade partner.

LA had a bunch of draft picks in 2019 and 2020, so it made sense for them to trade up for specific guys in 2021 since they might not have contract spots for everybody. They traded up for Francesco Pinelli, Samuel Helenius, and Kirill Kirsanov.

Not sure if we can draw any final conclusions with Carolina's recent trade downs. In general, if you can trade down and still get the guy you intended to take then why not?

2021:
Carolina traded #26 (Zach L'Heureux) to Nashville for #39 (Scott Morrow) and #50 (Ville Koivunen)

Carolina traded #58 (Samuel Helenius) to Los Angeles for #71 (Anton Olsson) and #108 (Jackson Blake)

Carolina traded #122 (Carson Latimer) to Ottawa for #135 (Robert Orr) and #169 (Bryce Montgomery)

2020:
Carolina traded #139 (Ben Meehan) to Los Angeles for #158 (Lucas Mercuri) and a future 7th (#199 - Yegor Naumov)

2019:
Carolina traded #37 (Mads Sogaard) to Ottawa for #44 (Jamieson Rees) and #83 (Anttoni Honka)

Carolina traded #59 (Hunter Jones) to Minnesota for #73 (Patrik Puistola) and #99 (Cade Webber)

================

And going back to the OP's user name inspiration, the late 90's / early 00's Dallas Stars seemed to like to trade down in the first to accumulate extra picks. But the team trading up always seemed to benefit more.

1998:
Dallas traded #27 (Scott Gomez) to New Jersey for #39 (John Erskine) and #57 (Tyler Bouck) -- The actual Craig Button was still working for Dallas. Years later he'd say how Dallas wanted Simon Gagne at #27 but he got taken at #22. Then the scouts wanted Jiri Fischer but Bob Gainey didn't think he'd needed to trade up; Fischer went #25. So they pivoted and traded down.

1999:
Dallas traded #28 (Kristian Kudroc) to the NY Islanders for #32 (Michael Ryan) and #96 (Matthias Tjarnqvist)

2002:
Dallas traded #13 (Alexander Semin) to Washington for #26 (Martin Vagner), #42 (Marius Holtet), and #185 (Francis Wathier)

2003:
Dallas traded #28 (Corey Perry) to Anaheim for #36 (Vojtek Polak) and #54 (B.J. Crombeen)

2004:
Dallas made a few trades to turn #20 (Travis Zajac) into #28 (Mark Fistric), #52 (Raymond Sawada), and two future 3rds (#71 - Richard Clune, #75 - Perttu Lindgren)

 

[Pavels Dog]

Accumulate as many picks as possible and pick guys that are ”fallers” on draft day.

They have done this since 2019 I’d say and have a haul of solid draft picks since then. Going forward so we think more teams will employ this strategy or different variations to it?

If more teams pick "fallers", wouldn't that stop them from being fallers. Or how does that work.

 

[LeProspector]

I don't really see their strategy as targeting fallers?

I thought moreso that they just value analytics and have been targeting skilled players and puck possession players. Regardless, they seem like they have done a good job with drafting the last few years.

Only 2 of the guys since 2019 have played NHL games so far though... so is this thread maybe a little premature?

2019:
Massimo Rizzo: One of the NCAA’s leading scorers

Antonni Honka: Solid defensive prospect with upside

Pyotor Kotchkov: One of the best young goalies in the world

Jamie Rees: Solid prospect with a projectable game

Patrik Puistola: Another solid prospect that is doing well in Liiga

5 potential NHLers there, 6 if you include Suzuki

2020:

Seth Jarvis: NHLer

Alexander Nikiskin: Best defensive prospect in the world

Noel Gunler: Promising kid playing his first full season in N/A

Ronan Seeley: Looks like an NHLer in a couple years

Vasili Ponomaryev: Solid in his first season in The AHL.

5 potential NHLers again, more if you ask other people

2021:

Scott Morrow: One of the best defensive prospects in the world.

Jackson Blake: Very solid prospect putting up impressive totals

Justin robidas: doing well in the QMJHL

3 potential NHLers, more if you ask other people

2022: too early but promising group

 

[Brodeur]

Depended on the draft year, but the Devils got Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, and Zach Parise from trading up. They traded down in 1990 because they wanted Martin Brodeur and kinda reached for him at #20.

One random story I enjoyed was from Detroit's draft table in 2008. I forget if it was Ken Holland or Jim Nill but one of them was getting paranoid as the Devils traded down a few times from #21 to #23 to #24. Detroit had #30 and were worried the Devils might be going after their guy. Holland/Nill blurted out something like "Remember when they stole Souray from us?"

After seeing that I looked it up. Devils traded up to #71 to take Souray. Detroit apparently was planning on taking him at #75. I enjoyed that 14 years later, they were still annoyed about it.

Detroit got sniped in 2004 for Alexander Edler. Wings were planning on taking him with #97. Vancouver swooped in and took him at #91. Detroit's consolation prize was Johan Franzen.

 

[abo9]

2019:
Massimo Rizzo: One of the NCAA’s leading scorers

Antonni Honka: Solid defensive prospect with upside

Pyotor Kotchkov: One of the best young goalies in the world

Jamie Rees: Solid prospect with a projectable game

Patrik Puistola: Another solid prospect that is doing well in Liiga

5 potential NHLers there, 6 if you include Suzuki

2020:

Seth Jarvis: NHLer

Alexander Nikiskin: Best defensive prospect in the world

Noel Gunler: Promising kid playing his first full season in N/A

Ronan Seeley: Looks like an NHLer in a couple years

Vasili Ponomaryev: Solid in his first season in The AHL.

5 potential NHLers again, more if you ask other people

2021:

Scott Morrow: One of the best defensive prospects in the world.

Jackson Blake: Very solid prospect putting up impressive totals

Justin robidas: doing well in the QMJHL

3 potential NHLers, more if you ask other people

2022: too early but promising group

Wasn't Seth Jarvis a huge riser in his draft year who kinda came out of nowhere?

When I think fallers, I think prospects ranked wayyy higher than where they are picked, or even guys who started the year with tons of hype and ended lower in ranks.

Idk about the other ones, but right now their most successful pick (Jarvis) was pretty much the opposite of a faller...

 

[LeProspector]

Wasn't Seth Jarvis a huge riser in his draft year who kinda came out of nowhere?

When I think fallers, I think prospects ranked wayyy higher than where they are picked, or even guys who started the year with tons of hype and ended lower in ranks.

Idk about the other ones, but right now their most successful pick (Jarvis) was pretty much the opposite of a faller...

Wasn’t gonna include Jarvis for just that reason but thought I should because he was a full time NHLer- he was Just a solid player and went exactly where most expected him to.

It’s past the first round they employ this strategy for the most part and they have reaped the rewards of it. They have some of the best defensive prospects in hockey, and they didn’t pick any of them in the first round.

 

[Canes]

Wasn't Seth Jarvis a huge riser in his draft year who kinda came out of nowhere?

When I think fallers, I think prospects ranked wayyy higher than where they are picked, or even guys who started the year with tons of hype and ended lower in ranks.

Idk about the other ones, but right now their most successful pick (Jarvis) was pretty much the opposite of a faller...

He wasn't a huge draft riser like say Jeff Skinner was. In McKenzie's mid season 2020 rankings he was 24th. He rose to 18th in his final rankings, where as most other draft lists had him right about where he was taken at 13th.

As for OP, I'm still not sold much on many of our prospects right now outside of Morrow, Nikishin, and Kochetkov, and the jury is still very much out on them. They do have some other promising guys in college and juniors but most of the pro prospects have stagnated if not regressed.

 

[abo9]

He wasn't a huge draft riser like say Jeff Skinner was. In McKenzie's mid season 2020 rankings he was 24th. He rose to 18th in his final rankings, where as most other draft lists had him right about where he was taken at 13th.

As for OP, I'm still not sold much on many of our prospects right now outside of Morrow, Nikishin, and Kochetkov, and the jury is still very much out on them. They do have some other promising guys in college and juniors but most of the pro prospects have stagnated if not regressed.

Definitely premature. I'm a Habs fan so I see that all the time. Prospect pool always looks "awesome"

 

[MBH]

Carolina seems to read HP.
HP influences my draft list and Carolina ALWAYS kills it - based on my HP-influenced list.

 

[Bubbles]

Didn't I read somewhere that Dundon didn't want to draft defenseman in the 1st round or something?

 

[cheesymc]

I do agree that i like the canes and stars overall draft strategy in recent years. It would be nice if my team placed as much resources in scouting and analytics as the Canes do.

 

[Czechboy]

Not sure I agree with premise... But I loved the pashin pick.

 

[Canes]

Didn't I read somewhere that Dundon didn't want to draft defenseman in the 1st round or something?

Well to be fair, most of the 1st round d-men we drafted recently before he bought the team sucked (Fleury, Bean, Murphy) or were disappointments (Hanifin), and all of our good d-men were drafted in the 2nd round or later. We only like to trade for first rounded drafted d-men apparently.

 

[Brodeur]

Didn't I read somewhere that Dundon didn't want to draft defenseman in the 1st round or something?

Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon reveals his controversial plan for future drafts - Article - BARDOWN

www.bardown.com

“We won't be drafting defence in the first round as long as I’m here. I’ve got to have more offense, I want to lose five to four, not two to one. If we lose five to four, at least I’ll have fun”.

Q&A: Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon talks narratives, red jerseys, drafting defensemen and perspective

"We’re in a pretty good spot, we have a good path, we fixed a lot of things. You’re talking three or four more games won in a row we feel different," Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon says.

theathletic.com

Q: You took some flak for saying the Canes “won’t be drafting defense in the first round as long as you’re here”, but come on, have you seen this team? Do you think that comment is getting taken out of context or blown out of proportion?

A: We’ve got (Adam) Fox and (Jake) Bean. Then (Brett) Pesce and (Jaccob) Slavin are in their 20s, Haydn Fleury is 22, Dougie Hamilton is 25, Justin Faulk is 27, (Calvin) de Haan is in his prime years and can play Top 4.

You see how much defense this team has picked up over the years. To say we aren’t drafting for it in early rounds doesn’t mean we don’t think it’s important — we traded for Dougie, right?

I promise we won’t be taking defense in the first two rounds this year. I don’t think that’s controversial given where we are as an organization. The word “never” is probably too strong, but it’s pretty close to never.

He did walk it back a little bit subsequently. I did enjoy that they traded down from the late first and then took Scott Morrow with an early-ish 2nd. Sometimes I do worry that people place much higher expectations on a late first rounder than the prospect taken a few picks later.

Previous Carolina GM Jim Rutherford also had a distaste for taking defensemen with top picks. I didn't totally agree with his premise, but his rationale was that defensemen take longer to get established in the NHL. So there's more value in a scoring forward on an ELC.

 

[Just Linda]

2019:
Massimo Rizzo: One of the NCAA’s leading scorers

Antonni Honka: Solid defensive prospect with upside

Pyotor Kotchkov: One of the best young goalies in the world

Jamie Rees: Solid prospect with a projectable game

Patrik Puistola: Another solid prospect that is doing well in Liiga

5 potential NHLers there, 6 if you include Suzuki

2020:

Seth Jarvis: NHLer

Alexander Nikiskin: Best defensive prospect in the world

Noel Gunler: Promising kid playing his first full season in N/A

Ronan Seeley: Looks like an NHLer in a couple years

Vasili Ponomaryev: Solid in his first season in The AHL.

5 potential NHLers again, more if you ask other people

2021:

Scott Morrow: One of the best defensive prospects in the world.

Jackson Blake: Very solid prospect putting up impressive totals

Justin robidas: doing well in the QMJHL

3 potential NHLers, more if you ask other people

2022: too early but promising group

I'd take a deep breath and lower expectations. You listed a lot of good prospects, calling Niskonin the top d prospect in the world and Morrow as one of the top ones is setting yourself up for disappointment. Both are good dmen with NHL upside, they are both a step below Jiricek, Hughes, and Nemec IMO.

Here's a recent list from the Athletic, they are the 13th and 14th ranked dmen on this list (though I'd take Niskonin over a few dmen listed above him and Morrow after a few others).

Scott Wheeler's top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking, 2023 edition

The Athletic's Scott Wheeler ranks the league's top 50 drafted skaters, made up of 35 forwards and 15 defensemen.

theathletic.com

 

[Peasy]

2019:
Massimo Rizzo: One of the NCAA’s leading scorers

Antonni Honka: Solid defensive prospect with upside

Pyotor Kotchkov: One of the best young goalies in the world

Jamie Rees: Solid prospect with a projectable game

Patrik Puistola: Another solid prospect that is doing well in Liiga

5 potential NHLers there, 6 if you include Suzuki

2020:

Seth Jarvis: NHLer

Alexander Nikiskin: Best defensive prospect in the world

Noel Gunler: Promising kid playing his first full season in N/A

Ronan Seeley: Looks like an NHLer in a couple years

Vasili Ponomaryev: Solid in his first season in The AHL.

5 potential NHLers again, more if you ask other people

2021:

Scott Morrow: One of the best defensive prospects in the world.

Jackson Blake: Very solid prospect putting up impressive totals

Justin robidas: doing well in the QMJHL

3 potential NHLers, more if you ask other people

2022: too early but promising group

Seems like a lot of wishful thinking. I bet you half of these players don't hit 100 NHL games.

 

[spockBokk]

The Canes have drafted well lately, but they’ve really only struck gold twice (since 2019) I’d say with their current strategy with Kochetkov and Nikishin. (I’d argue that you can’t really include Jarvis since they bought that pick at it was inside the lottery, you should get a pretty decent player there).

The jury is still out on the rest (I’ll only list the guys I actually think project at NHL players and those I’m actually familiar with, the Canes have a ton of prospects)

-Morrow - looks very promising, needs to clean up defensively
-Honka - I think he ends up Tyson Barrie-lite as a 3rd pair pp guy, not bad for a 3rd
-Seeley - somewhat underwhelming season in the AHL, still has time
-Grudinin - could be a steal, but tiny and Russian
-Heimosalmi - likely bottom pair guy, potentially 2nd pair puck mover with skating skills

-Trikozov - potential is there, but he’s Russian and a project
-Rees - has bottom 6 agitator written all over him, I think he’s a full time NHL player soon
-Ponomarev - decent AHL season, but how many bottom 6 guys do you need like him (Rees, Drury and him are all quite similar)
-Gunler - top 9 or bust, doubt he gets a shot under Brind’Amour, likely trade bait
-Suzuki - I’d like to see him get a shot, seems to be coming around in the AHL finally healthy, likely trade bait

I don’t know enough about Robidas, Rizzo, Blake, Forsmark, Nystrom and on and on to comment.

Bottomline - the Canes draft strategy looks like it will provide a steady diet of middle 6 forwards and bottom pair D. They may have struck gold with Morrow and Nikishin looks like a sure-fire top 4 guy. They continually swing for be fences in the later rounds and that hasn’t yet produced a top 6 forward, but it might (Koivunen, Rees, Suzuki, Trikozov and Gunler might get there). They’re doing their best to have as many darts as possible. So far, seems to be a decent strategy with the sheer number of potential NHL guys then seem to have.

 

[GordieHowYaDoin]

Not sure I agree with premise... But I loved the pashin pick.

Surprised I am not seeing more love for him in this thread. I really loved that pick too

 

[BondraTime]

But they aren't drafting fallers

 

[Czechboy]

Surprised I am not seeing more love for him in this thread. I really loved that pick too

My oil were coming up and I was looking at all the 'boom or bust' type prospects and was screaming for them to take Pashin... then Caroline did.lol I'd love to have him percolating in our system. Perpetual motion machine! A team like Carolina is built perfect for a fast skill player like him.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

But they aren't drafting fallers

agreed - from the outside looking in I guess I can understand how someone can see it as this.

 

[5cotland]

I for one am extremely jealous of how Carolina do things. Their scouting, drafting and coaching is on point. I even wanted Brind'Amour as coach for NYR before Gallant. I would take Brind'Amour now over Gallant.

Their drafting stategy with the constant moving back in the draft to accumulate more picks is great and makes it more exciting.

Canes fans have a lot to be excited about right now and my only suggestion is to sit back and enjoy the ride. The future is bright in Carolina.