GDT: The Blue Note @ Your NJ Devils, 1/5/2023

[New Jersey]

They just beat Pittsburgh, who are decent.

No. Internets told me beating teams above you in the standings are the only wins that matter.

So if we win tomorrow, it proves nothing!

 

[JrFischer54]

the results are underselling their performances. the team isn't bad at all. there is no reason to hit the panik button or for a major shake up. but still we have voices asking for trades, sitting veteran players or firing the coach. none of this things is required to salvage the season. a playoff birth is still possible and the team hopefully learns from those experiences and improves.

sometimes it feels here like the world's existence is in danger with every sunset.

The goal this year was to play meaningful hockey into the new year which they are. Now the goal is to play meaningful hockey to end of feb. But honestly would we even be playing meaningful hockey in the new year if we didn’t win 13 in a row?

Oh stop.

If they were in first or second in mid-February and then won like 5 of their last 30, I'd entertain a Mets analogy.

The 2007 Mets had a seven game lead in September and blew it in only 17 games. That's still the worst collapse by any NYC Metro team, ainec.

I wouldn’t say Mets level collapse but to be leading the league going into Dec to missing the playoffs? That’s a very very big collapse.

 

[New Jersey]

The goal this year was to play meaningful hockey into the new year which they are. Now the goal is to play meaningful hockey to end of feb. But honestly would we even be playing meaningful hockey in the new year if we didn’t win 13 in a row?

I love this question.

This board is very convinced that none of the good things they did on the 13-win streak were for real and December is who they really are.

The November sample size and the December sample size are about the same size. Hockey seasons are 82 games. The reality of the 2022-23 Devils is somewhere in between their November form and December form.

*sigh*

I'll be back tomorrow [maybe].

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

When you were 21-3 at one point, it might.

For some perspective, we have not reached the halfway point of the season yet, after all the ups and downs.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Isn't finishing a new advanced stat? Or at least there's recognition now that some guys can outscore their xG on shots due to their shooting ability right?

The guys that can do that consistently are the elite of the elite shooters. That's certainly an element this team is missing that might have won us a few more of these games, but it's also not a template you really want to follow in building a team, just assembling a bunch of those guys.

I lean toward absurd cold streak, but I know that's an unsatisfying answer for many.

Still, the puck luck has been undeniably dreadful of late. I would hazard a guess that we are one of the unluckiest teams in the league by PDO since our winning streak ended.

Since Dec 9th when our last winning streak ended, our PDO is 30th at all strengths and 29th 5v5. That's including the win against Detroit where we got fairly lucky. I think it was 31st before the most recent Carolina game.

It’s concerning that we’re literally counting on them maintaining road dominance all year now cause they can’t do jack shit at home anymore

Home and road splits are mostly a coincidence. Our 5v5 xGF% at home is 59.89% (2nd in the league) and all strengths is 55.99% (4th) our all strengths PDO at home is 27th and 5v5 PDO is 19th. On the road, our 5v5 xGF% is 55.49% (2nd), and all strengths is 57.03 (1st). Road 5v5 PDO is 5th and all strengths is 4th.

Basically, we've gotten luckier on the road than at home, but we're dominant in both places. Maybe this will equal out over the course of the year, maybe it won't. Either way, it's really not indicative of how well or not well we play at home vs. on the road.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

it's lazy and disingenuous to assume that every fan expected a 13 game win streak to last all season and that wanting anything more than what we've gotten is an expectations issue.

again, they've been one of the worst teams in the league over the past month, if you are going by the win-loss record. i expected better than that - even .500 hockey would have been great. i expect them to win some home games, even mediocre teams can pull those out once in a while.

I don't think it's overly dramatic to be worried that the team already gave up a 10 point lead in the standings and could very well be passed by two more teams by this weekend. it was absolutely over the top for people to be crying the first week into this lull proclaiming we'd drop out of the playoffs. it's actually crazy to me that those people weren't that far off

I don’t really give a shit and I’m basically done talking about this and will just enjoy the rest of the year, but I’m just glad my team, which is one of the youngest teams in the league, still outplays most teams, including the best team in the NHL, during their down stretches.

If you want to make the season as miserable and stressful as possible for yourself, go right ahead.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

The guys that can do that consistently are the elite of the elite shooters. That's certainly an element this team is missing that might have won us a few more of these games, but it's also not a template you really want to follow in building a team, just assembling a bunch of those guys.

I mean I agree in general. I do think there's basically a bar you need to reach in terms of shooting ability to play in the NHL, and then the variance in shooting ability above that bar is small enough that shot generating skills swamps finishing ability overall in terms of importance.

But I also think it's fair to say this team lacks finishers and could use at least one to take the offense (and especially PP) to the next level.

 

[forceten]

Yes, we're .500 (points wise, we're really 3-4) since the 6 game winless streak ended. Yes, we were 21-3 at one point. Yes, we should expect some reversion to the mean after that 17 game streak (16-1-0 where the loss was to bad referees).

But -

1. This means we are 8-14 (or 8-11-3) in games outside of that 17 game streak. Not good.
2. This ignores that the rest of the division has put up similar (or in the case of Carolina, better) streaks.
3. We are like Rutgers Football in the mid to late 2000s. Solid starters and absolutely no bench. This is emphasized with the current injury plague.
4. There seems to be different accountability for the team. I'm sure it's more clear to the players than to us but it's certainly opaque to us. Boqvist hasn't had a point in 19 games and he's invisible. It can't be for faceoffs, because while Jack Hughes has the worst faceoff ELO and is one of the bottom 4 faceoff guys who have had more than 100 faceoffs this year - BOQVIST IS RIGHT IN THAT BOTTOM FOUR WITH HIM(1). He doesn't hit, he doesn't score or make someone else score, and doesn't win draws. Yet Holtz has played games of 4 minutes long or sat for long periods, Zetterlund (rightfully) is called out for his drop off in play, Thompson gets sent down and Clarke is not called up, and Boqvist plays as if he's a contributor not a passenger. He may be the worst regular player on this entire team, top to bottom.
5. Our goaltending, which we knew, is still average at best.
6. Our lines are a mess right now and I don't know how they'll get fixed. I agree with most that Haula, despite his faceoff prowess, shouldn't be with Hughes. But Rango hasn't exactly lit it up, he's been a turnover machine more than a contributor in admittedly the wrong line.

Depth in the future on defense is not a problem because we have probably 8 or more legitimate NHL defenders (any depth slot #1 to #7) in the minors and juniors. But we have no depth on forward right now, and don't seem to have enough top 9 players on the NHL roster today. Our minors have a couple of guys that might develop (Thompson, Clarke although we probably have the wrong brothers in both) but the well is very dry beyond the minors (Gritsyuk and... um.). So there's no cavalry coming yet.

This is the issue in a nutshell. When you have to rely on the same guys over and over guys get tired, physically and mentally, and mistakes will happen. Hamilton's game was not characteristic. But he was due a stinker. My gosh so was Siegs, he's been so good.

This is very very frustrating. We know this team is capable, but this stretch seems more characteristic of the team when we aren't 100% healthy and are playing a lot.

(1) source: NHL Faceoff Stats and Elo ratings

 

[Bleedred]

Last night is the type of game we're going to lose again this year, at least a half a dozen more times if Vitek isn't given the major majority of starts down the stretch and is anything but the clear and undisputed number one goalie. He's the only goalie we have that's probably at least average. Schmid was very good early, but has been a dumpster fire since being returned to the AHL and I think the stretch started with his final game up here against Florida before being returned.

That's the second game goaltending has cost us at least one point in the last what's it been 7 games maybe? The other being the first Boston game.

There's absolutely no reason that Vitek shouldn't play every game until the Anaheim game.

Though looking at the schedule, there's only 2 more games before that, despite that game being a week away.

There's absolutely no reason to not play Vitek every game through San Jose, other than the one in Anaheim.

There's 2 more back to back sets this month. Vitek should be playing all but those two and maybe one other game this month. There's absolutely no reason to not play Vitek all but 3 more games through the break.

 

[New Jersey]

Chime in one more thing despite really just not wanting to post anymore right now:

HELL of a month for the Devils to go on this bipolar coaster while I’m going cold turkey off nicotine.

 

[Call Me Al]

Chime in one more thing despite really just not wanting to post anymore right now:

HELL of a month for the Devils to go on this bipolar coaster while I’m going cold turkey off nicotine.

damn

 

[Lou is God]

For some perspective, we have not reached the halfway point of the season yet, after all the ups and downs.

I fully expect them to rebound and make the playoffs - BUT if they do miss out, this will follow them through the offseason and into next season, it will be a major talking point and a very hard pill to swallow.

 

[New Jersey]

damn

The *real* test will be refusing drunk cigs at my friend’s bachelor party in Fort Lauderdale next month even though I’ve been kicking vaping.

Used Juul and Vuse products to get off cigs but it’s been tough.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I fully expect them to rebound and make the playoffs - BUT if they do miss out, this will follow them through the offseason and into next season, it will be a major talking point and a very hard pill to swallow.

I very much doubt that. Professional athletes are not the mental weaklings that many fans appear to be.

I still can’t get over the collapse talk at this point in the year. It’s like week 8 in the NFL predicting doom while the team is playing fine and in playoff position, but just losing some tough 1 score games. Have some dignity!

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I always love the "WELL IF YOU TAKE OUT THE HISTORIC 13 GAME WINNING STREAK, THIS TEAM STINKS!!" stuff. Thats....not how sports works. All the games count equally. Hockey especially is a game of streaks, both winning and losing.

I am annoyed as hell today about that loss last night. But, if the Devils would play that exact game 100 times, I bet they'd win 95 of them. and yes, I know we're sick of hearing about that....but the reality is thats all we can do at this point. Getting Marino and Bastian back hopefully soon will hopefully provide some of the much needed depth we've been missing out on.

Its a longgggggg season. To get hung up on a game or a few game stretch is not good for your mental health, I promise you. This team is still on pace to have 40+ more points than they did last season. Think about that.

 

[Rhodes 81]

I mean I agree in general. I do think there's basically a bar you need to reach in terms of shooting ability to play in the NHL, and then the variance in shooting ability above that bar is small enough that shot generating skills swamps finishing ability overall in terms of importance.

But I also think it's fair to say this team lacks finishers and could use at least one to take the offense (and especially PP) to the next level.

I was curious, so I checked. Among players that have played at least 200 minutes at all strengths, Hischier currently has the highest shooting % on the team at 15% (120 shots). That's 88th in the NHL. Next highest is Sharangovich at 14.29 (70 shots), which is 108th, then Bratt 14.14 (99 shots) which is 115th and Hughes at 13.79 (174 shots), which is 121st.

Hischier has an iXG of 16.31 and has 18 goals. Sharangovich has an iXG of 9.65 and has 10 goals. Bratt has an iXG of 9.99 and 14 goals. Hughes has an iXG of 19.95 and 24 goals.

Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Sharangovich, Hamilton, and Graves (who both obviously have a low shooting % as D) are the only players on the team to have scored more goals than their iXG. If you remove the minutes restriction, you can add Palat, Holtz, and Bahl.

I don't really have a takeaway here other than obviously Jack generates a ridiculous number of chances for himself (He's 4th in the league in shots behind Pastrnak, Meier, and Ovechkin), and we've got to figure out a way to get Sharangovich more opportunities to shoot. I recognize he will likely be a drain on the top lines from a possession standpoint, but we're getting to the point where you have to force a change in luck here.

 

[Lou is God]

I very much doubt that. Professional athletes are not the mental weaklings that many fans appear to be.

I still can’t get over the collapse talk at this point in the year. It’s like week 8 in the NFL predicting doom while the team is playing fine and in playoff position, but just losing some tough 1 score games. Have some dignity!

I think the collapse talk is premature too, but I'm just telling you if we do miss out on the playoffs, it very well be visible as a huge pimple on your nose. We won't be able to escape it.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

We’re getting healthier at least. Hopefully Bastian stabilizes the fourth line and Palat can add some of that secondary scoring. We’ll need to ride Vitek hard, though.

Bahl needs his ass sat.

 

[Bleedred]

I think the collapse talk is premature too, but I'm just telling you if we do miss out on the playoffs, it very well be visible as a huge pimple on your nose. We won't be able to escape it.

I'm not ready to say the collapse is gonna happen, but it would be like an astronomical and historic collapse for us to miss the playoffs after that 13 game winning streak and the first 25 games or whatever it was.

And you know they're gonna keep testing fate by giving the decrepit #29 more starts than they should and not letting Vitek be the undisputed guy. I already bet they're gonna start him in Raleigh on Tuesday. It's coming. The only thing that I think changes that is a loss tomorrow where Vitek plays great, but we either get Shesterkin'd or have a game where we get badly outplayed, but Vitek plays great. Maybe then Ruff starts feeling some heat and goes right back to Vitek on Tuesday.

 

[Whaddagoal]

I always love the "WELL IF YOU TAKE OUT THE HISTORIC 13 GAME WINNING STREAK, THIS TEAM STINKS!!" stuff. Thats....not how sports works. All the games count equally. Hockey especially is a game of streaks, both winning and losing.

I am annoyed as hell today about that loss last night. But, if the Devils would play that exact game 100 times, I bet they'd win 95 of them. and yes, I know we're sick of hearing about that....but the reality is thats all we can do at this point. Getting Marino and Bastian back hopefully soon will hopefully provide some of the much needed depth we've been missing out on.

Its a longgggggg season. To get hung up on a game or a few game stretch is not good for your mental health, I promise you. This team is still on pace to have 40+ more points than they did last season. Think about that.

This is well said (captures how i feel about the situation)

I hope the bounces will come our way with these types of play.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Sure they can get themselves into position to score doesn’t mean they should be finishing two different skills. Team has a lot of nice pieces but lacking that finishing touch.

Is it really two different skills? Like I asked…how many players generate great scoring chances but still lack production and that’s what they are known for over multiple seasons?

 

[FooteBahl]

It would be massively disappointing, but finishing the year with like 96 points and missing the playoffs by a c*** hair would not qualify as a collapse.

But what if we miss by a Bahl hair?

 

[NJDevs26]

I think the collapse talk is premature too, but I'm just telling you if we do miss out on the playoffs, it very well be visible as a huge pimple on your nose. We won't be able to escape it.

Exhibit A: the 2022 NY Jets, another young team that wildly exceeded expectations early only to regress to the same bullshit late

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Right now, the Isles have the 2nd WC spot with 46 points in 40 games (1.15 ppg)

That equates to 94.3 points over a full season, which is pretty much right around where the playoff line has been recently anyways.

 

[Whaddagoal]

So i finally got to watch the how presser with Ruff was..

I cant say he is wrong with the commentary overall. Maybe hes doing this as a motivtional move.

He basically fielded questions about finishing ..

Mercer he started with right off the bat, first sentence. Tatar, later he said had 3 or 4 good oppps. Haula he dodged bullets but said straight up he is there for faceoffs and posession and he thinks hughes is benefitting from that dynamic. He referenced Haual playing with other guys as needed.

Zetts, basically he said was scratched as a wake up call. His underlying numbers havent been good. "If you arent scoring, or hitting, you gotta bring something the other team is gonna find hard to play against" (paraphrasing). He referenced that he may have gotten too comfortable that "he made it" (to the league) and that this is a wake up you need to be better. Oh. And he cross referenced holtz saying he has been playing better which is why he is getting ops.

Dougie, he said had a bad game and needs to bring it better. "Dont get scored on"

Forget who else.. He wasnt really wrong on most points but curious he airred all the laundry out. Lol.