McDNicks17
Moderator
Sample size is extremely important for numbers like these.
Teams with unsustainable SH%s can mask possession metrics that poor for small stretches, but over a larger sample sizes, they come down to earth pretty quickly.
The Barry Trotz Effect?
- Thread starter Critical13
- Start date
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HFBoards is well aware that today is election day in the US. We ask respectfully to focus on hockey and not politics.
Sample size is extremely important for numbers like these.
Teams with unsustainable SH%s can mask possession metrics that poor for small stretches, but over a larger sample sizes, they come down to earth pretty quickly.
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
If this is still going, I want you to check out this information OP. Washington, over the last 3 seasons, is quite mind-boggling.
There is clearly more to hockey than some of these stats are telling us. And statistics like Corsi (which, BTW, I love) are clearly diminishing in effectiveness from the times that Washington and LA were ranking 1st in it and then destroying everybody.
If Trotz can bring up NYI to a 1.02 PDO, and Washington falls below 1.01 (At 5V5), while no other metrics (such as xPDO, xGF%, CF%, HDCF%) can make sense of this, then I think that these statisticians need to watch hundreds of Barry Trotz games and figure out what he’s doing, and then develop a new xGF% model.
There is clearly more to hockey than some of these stats are telling us. And statistics like Corsi (which, BTW, I love) are clearly diminishing in effectiveness from the times that Washington and LA were ranking 1st in it and then destroying everybody.
If Trotz can bring up NYI to a 1.02 PDO, and Washington falls below 1.01 (At 5V5), while no other metrics (such as xPDO, xGF%, CF%, HDCF%) can make sense of this, then I think that these statisticians need to watch hundreds of Barry Trotz games and figure out what he’s doing, and then develop a new xGF% model.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Not a whole lot of change, but we've seen NYI's storybook start falter while Washington has surged lately now sitting 10th. Can change quickly in the Metro. The stats don't really tell the story as to why one is falling and the other rising, other than NYI suddenly giving up a few more chances and goals. Might add PDO.
Update: 21 games in
New York Islanders
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Washington
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Update: 21 games in
New York Islanders
| Stat (5v5) | 2017-2018 (Weight) | 2018-2019 (Trotz) |
| High Danger Chances For/60 | 9th overall (11.35) | 22nd overall (10.3) |
| High Danger Chances Against/60 | 31st overall (12.8) | 25th overall (12.25) |
| High Danger Chances For% | 25th overall (47.16%) | 26th overall (45.68%) |
| Goals For/60 | 4th overall (2.65) | 7th overall (2.86) |
| Goals Against/60 | 30th overall (2.98) | 14th overall (2.38) |
| Goals For% | 19th overall (48.36%) | 7th overall (54.65%) |
| Corsi For% | 28th overall (47.49%) | 28th overall (46.31%) |
Washington
| Stat (5v5) | 2017-2018 (Trotz) | 2018-2019 (Reirden) |
| High Danger Chances For/60 | 21st overall (10.24) | 26th overall (9.58) |
| High Danger Chances Against/60 | 29th overall (12.47) | 30th overall (12.85) |
| High Danger Chances For% | 31st overall (45.08%) | 29th overall (42.71%) |
| Goals For/60 | 7th overall (2.58) | 8th overall (2.81) |
| Goals Against/60 | 13th overall (2.32) | 24th overall (2.77) |
| Goals For% | 10th overall (52.63%) | 9th overall (53.85%) |
| Corsi For% | 24th overall (47.96%) | 24th overall (47.24%) |
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Storybook would be 19-3, we are better than people think. Trotz is doing his thing.
Chips
Registered User
- Aug 19, 2015
- 8,462
- 7,277
Weren’t the Islanders already allowing a ton of chances with great goaltending from the start? I thought their PDO had been pretty darn luck, and whatever that other chart that comes with it was too. They were well into the top right, and bottom left of the charts, respectively. More so than other teams
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