The Athletic's Predictions (Rangers 14th)

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Yeah, I mean, even among elite, Hall of Fame goalies, there is regression from career peaks. Did we just see Igor's? I mean, his save percentage was like third all time wasn't it? Behind like, the elitist of the elite Dominick Hasek?


I actually think goaltending has proven to be overrated in building your team.



Exactly.

Does this mean the Rangers can't be successful or even win a Cup? Of course not. Of course they could win a Cup.

But anything that points out their very real flaws and doesn't kiss their ass, people get out the pitchforks.

I don’t care where his model ranks the rangers. He could have had us at #1 , he’s still a little bitch

 

[mas0764]

I don’t care where his model ranks the rangers. He could have had us at #1 , he’s still a little bitch

Well I don't know him personally, maybe he is.

But his model is worth giving some credence to.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I think this is a very fair assessment of where the Rangers are. Everyone acknowledges that for this team to take another step the kids have to do so as well.

Right now we don't have a legitimate 1st line or 2nd line RW, our top line compared to other teams who can be considered elite is probably close to the bottom, the kids have a lot to prove, and the odds are as fantastic as Igor is it is going to be difficult to repeat last seasons performance, it was just that good.

Hopefully everything goes right but I don't think this is unreasonable at all.

 

[Off Sides]

I don't think 14th is all that crazy of a prediction. I'd probably go more like 7th thru 12th, based on nothing more than there are other good teams in the league, some of which I think have better rosters.

 

[irishlaxburger2]

I don’t care where his model ranks the rangers. He could have had us at #1 , he’s still a little bitch

He discredits himself considerably based on his social media "analysis".

Simply stated, he acts like a complete and total child.

 

[chosen]

Some interesting reactions here.

 

[TominNC]

You guys really think the Rangers are #14? Where do you see them in the Metro? A lot of old teams and not ready teams in the Metro.

 

[17futurecap]

The Rangers needed 7 games to beat this years Harford Wolfpack goalie, and probably are bounced in 5 if Crosby doesn't get a concussion.

It's not insane to think they don't get back to the ECF. They finished with 110 points last year, good for 8th in the NHL. 14th had 99, that's not even a dramatic fall off.

 

[mrmovies779]

Goalies are overrated, a hot goalie can steal a series..which is it?

 

[IDvsEGO]

The Rangers needed 7 games to beat this years Harford Wolfpack goalie, and probably are bounced in 5 if Crosby doesn't get a concussion.

It's not insane to think they don't get back to the ECF. They finished with 110 points last year, good for 8th in the NHL. 14th had 99, that's not even a dramatic fall off.

The narrative that domingue didn’t play out of his mind in the first 4 games Is getting old.
The penguins were absolutely winning the possession battles at times but when the rangers had chances he was stopping them.
That said, a lot of it seemed a confidence issue and not talent.
The vets were the ones who were struggling and once they started to get hot it was the rangers who were the better team.
If Mika doesn’t take a 6 games to wake up in the pitt series, or Panarin not being solid all post season, we look vastly different.
Also of the teams in the metro the rangers are the youngest who made the playoffs by a large chunk.
Carolina got older
Cbj got better but still a couple years away.
Njd has massive questions at goaltending again
Islanders are just old and probably will struggle to score again
Pittsburg is old, at some point the wheels fall off
Same with the capitals
The flyers are just terrible

Those teams we play 5x each, so almost half a season vs teams we should have a .700 winning percentages against.
And we should take a step forward.
If only because Laf Kakko Chytil and miller manage to carry their playoffs over.

 

[NCRanger]

You guys really think the Rangers are #14? Where do you see them in the Metro? A lot of old teams and not ready teams in the Metro.

The Rangers and Carolina are interchangeably #1 or #2 in the Metro. Columbus is a distant third. If Pittsburgh doesn't play as old as they are, they're close to Columbus. The other four might be in the wildcard race for a while.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Goalies are overrated, a hot goalie can steal a series..which is it?

It's not that they are overrated it's that they are volatile. So both can be true.

 

[GENESISPuck94]

I don’t think the regression here means Igor wouldn’t be elite. I think everyone knows he will be.

It’s whether or not you can count on him repeating last season which was one of the greatest regular seasons by a goalie in NHL history.

I think it’s a fair question to ask.

That's fair but I don't believe Shestekin not having a historical season will assist in the Rangers drop in league standings by 7 spots to 14th.

 

[irishlaxburger2]

It's not that they are overrated it's that they are volatile. So both can be true.

Fair point.

But perhaps the statisticians should try to quantify that variance better and add a more complex way to look at it in their models, instead of using the same exact model every year as teams regularly make Conference Finals runs on strong goaltending.

This is what a quality statistician would do. Instead, Dom just laments the GSAx stat over and over again.

 

[TominNC]

The Rangers and Carolina are interchangeably #1 or #2 in the Metro. Columbus is a distant third. If Pittsburgh doesn't play as old as they are, they're close to Columbus. The other four might be in the wildcard race for a while.

I agree. So to be 14th the Rangers would need to be on average 5th in any over the other divisions. I don't think so.

 

[DialUp]

I agree. So to be 14th the Rangers would need to be on average 5th in any over the other divisions. I don't think so.

Dom's model has them ranked 14, it's just one model though, and it's a model that basically destroys the way the Rangers are built (goaltending, opportunistic scoring, power play, luck, KREIDER). We have spoken about this in the roster building thread when NYR's ranking came out: it wouldn't have mattered even if we had won the cup, the inputs and outputs of the model would have been the same and the Rangers would have been right where they are. Rangers would have been "ranked" higher if our goalie was worse and we would have had more 5v5 shots and goals. Teams that shoot and score more 5v5 TEND to win more. That really is it.

Moneypuck doesn't even have the Rangers making the playoffs. Evolving Hockey doesn't have them making the playoffs. The Rangers NUMBERS as a team are hot garbage. The results on the ice is a different story last year.

For what it is worth, Dom's model has been pretty good picking winners, aside from St. Louis. The Rangers really aren't that great right now fellas, it is perfectly OK for that to be reality. We see the product on the ice, a ton of teams play a lot better than we do consistently, even if we will beat them or have more wins at the end of the year. We made the ECF regardless of this! That is exciting.

 

[TominNC]

So you buy into this Rangers not making the olayoffs? Or can you see past models that both discredit great goaltending and don’t thing young high draft picks will improve?

 

[DialUp]

So you buy into this Rangers not making the olayoffs? Or can you see past models that both discredit great goaltending and don’t thing young high draft picks will improve?

I am very confident they will be in the running for a playoff spot.

 

[TominNC]

In the running. So a lot worse than last year.

 

[DialUp]

In the running. So a lot worse than last year.

I didn't think they were going to even make the playoffs last year, so no my outlook is more optimistic going into this season.

 

[mas0764]

Goalies are overrated, a hot goalie can steal a series..which is it?

Both can be true.

Dom's model has them ranked 14, it's just one model though, and it's a model that basically destroys the way the Rangers are built (goaltending, opportunistic scoring, power play, luck, KREIDER). We have spoken about this in the roster building thread when NYR's ranking came out: it wouldn't have mattered even if we had won the cup, the inputs and outputs of the model would have been the same and the Rangers would have been right where they are. Rangers would have been "ranked" higher if our goalie was worse and we would have had more 5v5 shots and goals. Teams that shoot and score more 5v5 TEND to win more. That really is it.

Moneypuck doesn't even have the Rangers making the playoffs. Evolving Hockey doesn't have them making the playoffs. The Rangers NUMBERS as a team are hot garbage. The results on the ice is a different story last year.

For what it is worth, Dom's model has been pretty good picking winners, aside from St. Louis. The Rangers really aren't that great right now fellas, it is perfectly OK for that to be reality. We see the product on the ice, a ton of teams play a lot better than we do consistently, even if we will beat them or have more wins at the end of the year. We made the ECF regardless of this! That is exciting.

Right, this isn’t a Dom L problem, it’s an everybody else but Rangers fan problem. I wonder who really has the problem?

The hard to accept reality is that if your top two lines are built around Kreider-Zibanejad and Panarin-Trochek, that doesn’t stack up with the elite teams.

We have an elite goalie who makes up some of the difference but we already were down this road with Hank and I know how that story ends. Either Lafreniere, Kakko, and another to-be acquired center or two become high end players or this ends in no hardware again.

 

[mas0764]

I am very confident they will be in the running for a playoff spot.

Assuming they get another stellar year from Shesterkin they will likely be in a group with, but also behind some of, Tampa, Florida, Toronto, and Carolina. Boston is close to that group if they are healthy. Better watch out because teams like New Jersey is coming up fast, Columbus may be much better, and Pittsburgh and Washington still have punchers chances.

They could beat most of these teams but they could also lose to any of them too, and that’s the problem. The Rangers aren’t 2020 Tampa-like unassailable. Sure you will win a round or two, but they are playing the long odds, and eventually they are going to roll snake eyes. You either have to be clearly head and shoulders above everyone else or you have to bank on historic odds panning out in your favor.

The narrative that “we are just as good as anyone else in the conference” is a feel good spin that some are putting on the fact that we are like a 1-in-5 or 1-in-6 to make the Finals or worse. Yet they want to throw away assets on these long shot odds, or not do what it takes to increase them someday. They’d rather a 3 year window of 15% chances and hope to win the jackpot.

 

[WojtekWolski86]

The only model i care about is the one injecting Kaako with confidence

 

[DialUp]

Better watch out because teams like New Jersey is coming up fast, Columbus may be much better, and Pittsburgh and Washington still have punchers chances.

The only thing we have over any of those teams, right now, is a better goalie. So yeah, coin flips all around. No one should be shocked if NJ or even Columbus makes the playoffs. No one should be *shocked* (angry as all hell, yes, but not shocked) if we don't make the playoffs.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

Don't think even the authors are saying it's fool proof.

He gives a disclaimer before his prediction that prospect maturation is basically ignored in his model. We are a top 5 youngest team in the league. You can't really make a serious prediction if you ignore that. Its irrelevant is all

The only model i care about is the one injecting Kaako with confidence

nice