The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[thaman8765678]

Leafs are #1 in the team rankings and Flames are #2.

2022-23 NHL team previews: Projections and ranking of every NHL team

Between Sept. 19 and Oct. 4, we’re previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom’s model.

theathletic.com

Other noteworthy teams:
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. Minnesota

10. Edmonton
18. Vancouver
21. Winnipeg
22. Ottawa
31. Montreal

How accurate are these rankings? I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

Full list:

32. Arizona Coyotes
31. Montreal Canadiens
30. Chicago Blackhawks
29. Buffalo Sabres
28. Philadelphia Flyers
27. Columbus Blue Jackets
26. San Jose Sharks
25. Anaheim Ducks
24. Detroit Red Wings
23. Seattle Kraken
22. Ottawa Senators
21. Winnipeg Jets
20. New York Islanders
19. New Jersey Devils
18. Vancouver Canucks
17. St. Louis Blues
16. Los Angeles Kings
15. Vegas Golden Knights
14. New York Rangers
13. Dallas Stars
12. Washington Capitals
11. Nashville Predators
10. Edmonton Oilers
9. Pittsburgh Penguins
8. Carolina Hurricanes
7. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Boston Bruins
5. Minnesota Wild
4. Florida Panthers
3. Colorado Avalanche
2. Calgary Flames
1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Click to read more...

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

This should be fun.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

Wow the athletic has really gone downhill eh? Leafs at #1. Gtfo

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

How accurate are these rankings?

Hard to tell given you didn't list the complete rankings.

 

[TaLoN]

Leafs are #1 in the team rankings and Flames are #2.

Other noteworthy teams:
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. Minnesota

10. Edmonton
18. Vancouver
21. Winnipeg
22. Ottawa
31. Montreal

How accurate are these rankings? I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

How about a link to look them over?

 

[T REX]

I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

Not hard at all...that statement really raises some other questions.

The list is garbage.

 

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

there's only 8 noteworthy teams?

 

[Artemi Panarin]

The team that won the cup sitting comfortably at #3.

The team that hasn't won a round since 2004? #1.

 

[thaman8765678]

How about a link to look them over?

It's all paywalled. If someone who paid wants to copy the list and add it please go ahead.

 

[TaLoN]

It's all paywalled. If someone who paid wants to copy the list and add it please go ahead.

You can post the url, pay wall or not. If the user has paid, they can see the whole thing, if they haven't, they can't... but at least the article of discussion is easily accessible

 

[tfwnogf]

It's all paywalled. If someone who paid wants to copy the list and add it please go ahead.

you could get a subscription and save your thread

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

2022-23 NHL team previews: Projections and ranking of every NHL team

Between Sept. 19 and Oct. 4, we’re previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom’s model.

theathletic.com

Bottom ranking to top:

Arizona
Montreal
Chicago
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Columbus
San Jose
Anaheim
Detroit
Seattle
Ottawa
Winnipeg
NY Islanders
New Jersey
Vancouver
St. Louis
LA
Vegas
NY Rangers
Dallas
Washington
Nashville
Edmonton
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Tampa
Boston
Minnesota
Florida
Colorado
Calgary
Toronto

 

[TaLoN]

2022-23 NHL team previews: Projections and ranking of every NHL team

Between Sept. 19 and Oct. 4, we’re previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom’s model.

theathletic.com

Bottom ranking to top:

Arizona
Montreal
Chicago
Buffalo
Philadelphia
Columbus
San Jose
Anaheim
Detroit
Seattle
Ottawa
Winnipeg
NY Islanders
New Jersey
Vancouver
St. Louis
LA
Vegas
NY Rangers
Dallas
Washington
Nashville
Edmonton
Pittsburgh
Carolina
Tampa
Boston
Minnesota
Florida
Colorado
Calgary
Toronto

Thanks, added the link to the OP

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

How accurate are these rankings? I think it is hard to argue with the top 2.

it's actually easy, both are paper tigers that haven't proven anything yet

one completely changed their core and the other has never won a playoff round

 

[Connor McConnor]

I could see the top 4 happening. Minny and Boston are way too high IMO. Didn't bother looking into the rest

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

I'm more surprised by how low Columbus is.

I'd have them ahead of at least 10 other teams

 

[nilan30]

I'm impressed that the Habs are ranked 31st yet still made the top 30 list.

 

[TaLoN]

Looks like it's all model based...

Improving our NHL projection model ahead of the 2019-20 season

Outlining the changes to Dom's prediction model.

theathletic.com

It’s mostly outlined here in this FAQ posted before our 2017-18 projections, but basically it’s built at the player level using Game Score – a stat I adapted from basketball a few years ago. Working at the player level rather than the team level is one way that my model differs from others that are scaled via team performance only. It offers some challenges in terms of allocating proper credit, but has the advantage of being able to instantly factor for injuries and trades in ways a team-level model cannot.

Game Score is a linear weight model with the weights for each stat within it being derived according to the frequency of goals occurring from them and are as such:

Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15

He goes on to say that this year he's moved on from corsi in his model to expected goals.

This can explain why the Wild rank so high. They've been an expected goals darling for years.

 

[NyQuil]

Boston seems a bit high, just IMO.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

That seems like a big leap for the Leafs when they still have goalie and especially blue line deficiencies.

Seems like they've bought too much into the Flames offseason hype by my standards.

Panthers seem inexplicably high, but I guess not by a huge amount.

Aren't the Wild starting to feel dead cap crunch?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Little surprised how low the Blues consistently find themselves on all these "model-based" lists. I don't think they're necessarily a top contender, but they seem like a team that's firmly in the top 10 range.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You’d think Dom would of improved his model by now.

 

[Bronson]

I'm just happy that Toronto won something

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

How the hell is Boston that high?

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Boston & Jersey should be about 10 spots lower.