GDT: The Annual "I've Made a Huge Mistake" Thread: Free Agent Frenzy 2015

[Carolinas Identity*]

If we're in the playoff hunt in March, that means people will pay money to see games. That's the goal, plain and simple.

Hell, if we're in the playoff hunt in December, that'd be an improvement.

 

[Stickpucker]

I would rather try to package Murphy plus LAK 1st for a good young forward with term like JVR. You have to think TOR is still selling.

 

[GoCanes2013]

are we so super positive that hes even ready?

seems like a quick jump from undrafted rookie to regular nhl player.

im not expecting him to play a game this year. talented as hell, more skill than just about anyone on our roster. but hes played one pro game in his life, and he's teeny tiny. i think he'll be a good player, but penciling him into the lineup because of a sweet move or two in prospects camp is early.

Tyler Johnson (TB) calls BS. If a guy has talent, give him a chance. If you never give him a chance you're likely never to see what he can do.

 

[GoCanes2013]

Tyler Johnson (TB) calls BS. If a guy has talent, give him a chance. If you never give him a chance you're likely never to see what he can do.

Oh, and another, undrafted, sick-skilled tiny guy concurs (Martin St. Louis)

 

[Blueline Bomber]

That's a pretty pessimistic view, even by #hcanes standards. You're calling the season over and lost on July 10th?

Not at all. But I am saying that the odds that we make the playoffs this year are very slim, to the point where acquiring a player like Sharp would do nothing but add another contract on the books.

I hope they make the playoffs. But I know that they've had better teams in past years that have failed to make it, and I know that, on paper, the East has at least 8 better teams than the Canes, with or without Sharp.

You can call it pessimistic. I call it realistic.

 

[NotOpie]

Some of us are have been watching this bubble team crap for more than 10 years. We need a serious rebuild. Obviously the 02-04 rebuild was painful, but winning the Cup next year was a little nice. So yeah, I hope we suck terribly again.

Nope and nope....I always vote for trying to be competitive enough to make it to the playoffs. Sure there are always a lot of ifs and currently we are at least two key assets down (top/middle 6 forward, Top 4 dman).

I believe the Staal/Staal/Lindholm line is anticipated to be our top line. I also think that, as of today, our 2nd line is Skinner/Rask/TBD with the TBD either somebody who wins it in camp or an acquisition. Our 3rd line is then Gerbe or Terry/Nash/Nestrasil and our 4th is Gerbe or Terry/McClement/Malone.

An acquisition likely slots him on our top line with one of Jordan or Lindy moving down. I would prefer to see Jordan and Eric split up. We could then ice a 2nd line of Skinner/JStaal/Lindholm which I think would be both tough to play against and provide some serious scoring punch. And before we all get into the "Jeff doesn't mesh with Jordan" thing, I assume the BP is a good enough coach to make it work. Frankly with a big body like Jordan on that line, Jeff get's some protection and also benefits from Lindy's playmaking skill. I'd probably then push Nash to wing on the third line and send out Nash/Rask/Terry which would also be responsible defensively and still provide scoring punch. I really like Gerbe on the 4th line as he replaces Dwyer's speed and will likely replace his time on the PK as well.

We instantly become a much more dangerous offensive team as you ice 3 scoring lines. You also get the benefit of having Rask and Terry play against other 3rd line competition which should open up their scoring. Add to this the fact that you will likely have defensive pairings that each will contain a puck mover/offensive d-man and we should get more scoring from the back end too.

Adding Sharp gets us the forward asset we're missing. I believe GMRF and Coach BP feel that Noah Hanifin is the missing Top 4 blueliner (and based on my viewings of him this week, they are probably right).

Finally, I don't think it is going to take a 1st rounder to get sharp. I don't think it will even take Murphy (although he's an asset like any other). I think we could package a 2nd and a "pretty good" blueline prospect to get this deal done if we wanted to. The Hawks have their proverbial you know what's in a vice cap-wise.

 

[DaveG]

Tyler Johnson (TB) calls BS. If a guy has talent, give him a chance. If you never give him a chance you're likely never to see what he can do.

You realize Johnson spent one full season and about 80% of the next one in the minors, right? And it was even longer for Marty before he stuck.

Not saying that Tolchinsky flat out can't or even that he shouldn't stick this year, just saying it's a process, it takes time, and there's a good chance waiting for it will be the right move.

 

[DaveG]

Finally, I don't think it is going to take a 1st rounder to get sharp. I don't think it will even take Murphy (although he's an asset like any other). I think we could package a 2nd and a "pretty good" blueliner to get this deal done if we wanted to.

I'm kindof in this boat as well. I don't like late firsts nearly as much as a lot of other posters (it's about a 25% of even getting an NHL regular with a late first) here on HF. So I'd have no problem giving them the LA 1st IF there's some kind of lottery protection (IE: both LA and us miss and the pick becomes our 2nd and WPG 3rd) and I'd do a decent but not stellar D prospect like Lowe in the mix with that trade.

But I still think trading Murphy at this point would be insanity. Even if we do have guys that prove to be better in our system look at the returns that guys like Franson have been able to get, and I think (size aside) Murphy has a good shot at proving to be the better of those two players.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

Lottery protected, sure. But missing out on Matthews because of Sharp would be a mistake.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Lottery protected, sure. But missing out on Matthews because of Sharp would be a mistake.

 

[DaveG]

Even with the roster as it currently is we'd still have less then a 20% chance at Matthews anyway, in fact I'd be surprised if we picked anywhere in the top 3 with the current lottery setup depending on the odds.

 

[dogbazinho]

No to Sharp. Such a Rutherford move.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

Don't disregard packaging both of our first rounders to move up in the draft though.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Don't disregard packaging both of our first rounders to move up in the draft though.

~7 + ~15 won't get matthews either

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

Maybe not, but it's still a risky proposition.

 

[bleedgreen]

Some of us are have been watching this bubble team crap for more than 10 years. We need a serious rebuild. Obviously the 02-04 rebuild was painful, but winning the Cup next year was a little nice. So yeah, I hope we suck terribly again.

How is getting sharp really effecting the future? Rf won't full on rebuild, I don't think they think the market can handle it. Even if we trade estaal and ward I think he's going to always try to get better. Saying no to Sharp because he may hurt the "rebuild" doesn't make sense to me. This draft has a lottery for the top 3 anyways so there's less incentive to care about the draft position. We've been so bad I'm actually looking forward to being close to a playoff spot. They're building this team for long term success, I don't think adding Sharp ruins that. Couldn't hurt to have someone that can relate to winning around these guys.

 

[DaveG]

How is getting sharp really effecting the future? Rf won't full on rebuild, I don't think they think the market can handle it. Even if we trade estaal and ward I think he's going to always try to get better. Saying no to Sharp because he may hurt the "rebuild" doesn't make sense to me. This draft has a lottery for the top 3 anyways so there's less incentive to care about the draft position. We've been so bad I'm actually looking forward to being close to a playoff spot. They're building this team for long term success, I don't think adding Sharp ruins that. Couldn't hurt to have someone that can relate to winning around these guys.

More to your point, I don't think giving up say a 2nd and Lowe (if we keep the LA first) hurts that either. Lowe would be a pretty highly regarded D prospect on a lot of teams but with our depth he's prettymuch an afterthought.

 

[Ole Gil]

Being patient stinks, but draft and develop is the name of the new game. Possibly the best defense this team has every had is just around the corner.

When they hit their prime, and eventually get paid, the team is going to want to have a steady supply of former first and second round picks coming into the roster playing on cheap contracts.

If they decide the current roster needs a guy, there are still plenty of guys who can be serviceable in free agency at no long term cost.

(The depressing nature of our "Best prospect" poll, which has nosedived at #3 is why I wouldn't trade any 1st or 2nds for a short term gain)

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It's less about saying no to Sharp because he hurts the rebuild and more about saying no to Sharp because he's an additional unnecessary $5 million on the books. It's no secret that this market is in a precarious position at the moment, especially if last year's attendance was any indication. At the moment, every dollar spent needs to be weighed vs. likely return, if only to ensure the team sticks around NC long enough to complete this rebuilding process.

If this team had shown any signs of being close to a playoff spot over the past X years, then Sharp would be an interesting gamble. But they haven't. The odds that they suddenly turn it around at the acquisition of Sharp are slim. So the question then becomes whether the position the Canes finish without Sharp vs. the position the Canes finish with Sharp is worth $5 million to the organization.

Is it worth $5 million to finish 10/11th rather than 12th/13th? I'd say no and I'd say the organization probably feels the same way.

 

[DaveG]

I don't think we have the depth here for Patrick Sharp to be the difference in those two placements.

I don't think we're as bad as Buffalo or New Jersey, and Toronto's still a dumpster fire but now they at least have a coach. But it's going to take more then Patrick Sharp to have us pushing Florida, Boston, Ottawa, and Pittsburgh. The only "x-factor" team in there is Philly, because their defense is a total dumpster fire the way our forwards are, and I have literally less then zero faith in Mason in playing like he did last year long-term.

So, would Sharp at 5.5 and 5 be worth the investment from a standings and attendance standpoint? Probably not, other then as a way to throw a bone to the STHs. But would the return on the investment when we ship him to a contender at the 2017 be worth that investment? I'm leaning toward "yeah probably" as I think it would be similar to what we got for Sekera value wise.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

It's less about saying no to Sharp because he hurts the rebuild and more about saying no to Sharp because he's an additional unnecessary $5 million on the books. It's no secret that this market is in a precarious position at the moment, especially if last year's attendance was any indication. At the moment, every dollar spent needs to be weighted vs. likely return, if only to ensure the team sticks around NC long enough to complete this rebuilding process.

If this team had shown any signs of being close to a playoff spot over the past X years, then Sharp would be an interesting gamble. But they haven't. The odds that they suddenly turn it around at the acquisition of Sharp are slim. So the question then becomes whether the position the Canes finish without Sharp vs. the position the Canes finish with Sharp is worth $5 million to the organization.

Is it worth $5 million to finish 10/11th rather than 12th/13th? I'd say no and I'd say the organization probably feels the same way.

Another way to look at it though is, if Sharp can win us even 3 or 4 games we would have lost, because he's better than AHL Plug X, that's 6-8 points extra in January. So, instead of being, hypothetically 10 points out of the playoffs, we'd actually only be 2-4,which means we're in the hunt, which means people will go to the games, which means people will pay for parking and tickets and jerseys and t-shirts and hats and nachos and hot dogs and beer and cheeseburgers.

Which will only help, because even if we miss the playoffs, the fan base will collectively think: "Wow, we were pretty good this year, didn't make it, but, we were competitive and went on a run and didn't finish in the bottom 5 for the nth year in a row. We're going in the right direction. I like this, sign me up for next year."

 

[tomdundo]

^What is Patrick Sharp's WAR?

 

[VAcaniac]

Another way to look at it though is, if Sharp can win us even 3 or 4 games we would have lost, because he's better than AHL Plug X, that's 6-8 points extra in January. So, instead of being, hypothetically 10 points out of the playoffs, we'd actually only be 2-4,which means we're in the hunt, which means people will go to the games, which means people will pay for parking and tickets and jerseys and t-shirts and hats and nachos and hot dogs and beer and cheeseburgers.

Which will only help, because even if we miss the playoffs, the fan base will collectively think: "Wow, we were pretty good this year, didn't make it, but, we were competitive and went on a run and didn't finish in the bottom 5 for the nth year in a row. We're going in the right direction. I like this, sign me up for next year."

In an ideal world, those 6-8 points doesn't help this franchise in the long run. If we're strictly about improving the team in the long run, moving down in the draft and being a bubble team that just misses like almost every year isn't helping. I understand the franchise is in a slightly tenuous financial situation and we're not in an ideal world, so can't afford to be terrible forever though....Although it's debatable being another bubble team is going to significantly improve attendance.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

^What is Patrick Sharp's WAR?

probably a lot more than chris terry's

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Another way to look at it though is, if Sharp can win us even 3 or 4 games we would have lost, because he's better than AHL Plug X, that's 6-8 points extra in January. So, instead of being, hypothetically 10 points out of the playoffs, we'd actually only be 2-4,which means we're in the hunt, which means people will go to the games, which means people will pay for parking and tickets and jerseys and t-shirts and hats and nachos and hot dogs and beer and cheeseburgers.

Which will only help, because even if we miss the playoffs, the fan base will collectively think: "Wow, we were pretty good this year, didn't make it, but, we were competitive and went on a run and didn't finish in the bottom 5 for the nth year in a row. We're going in the right direction. I like this, sign me up for next year."

Well, if you want to argue it that way, Jordan Staal simply being healthy for the 1st half of the season would be worth 6-8 points extra. And we wouldn't have to spend an additional $5 million to make that happen.

I get the whole "Being close is the first step" mentality, but I don't think this team needs to spend a lot of money to be better than last year. They simply have to have better luck.