Rumor: The All Encompassing Patrik Laine Thread (it’s happening!!)

[sampollock]

Ok let's say he comes in scores 80 goals over the final 2 years and is looking to get paid 9m. Why is that an instant problem? Because surely it's not actually a problem cap-wise.

I dont think Laine will get 9 mil ever again. he will be a 5 to 7 mill guy.
take a chance
not like Habs are stacked with scoring goals

 

[Miller Time]

And I think people grossly underestimate the likely regression of some of the ageing players that will be stuck in the lineup. Gallagher, Anderson, Dvorak, Armia, Pezzeta, Savard.

Odd to include Pezzetta there. He's 26, no reason to believe he's going to regress ability -wise. I doubt he'll see the ice time he got last year, so his numbers should drop, but I'd be surprised if regresses performance-wise.

Dvorak can't really do much worse unless he's injured again.

Armia, Gally & Anderson are expensive depth players. They should see much less ice time next year unless injuries to top 6 players hamner us again next year

That's the thing. The team is essentially the same as last year up to the trade deadline (replace Monahan with Dach), and they were nowhere close to a playoff spot. And on top of that, they need to start giving time to young players who will make mistakes learning, particularly in D.

U25.

Was Slaf, or Newhook, or Suzuki, or Caufield or Guhle the same player in April 2024 as they were in April 2023, let alone Sept 2022?

Progression from our U25 core, as a whole, is all but inevitable, even though a few individuals may well step back (since young players don't progress in a straight line).

Problem with Laine, is that if he doesn't do well, its a bust. But if he does well, then you end up in 2 years having to pay him 8-9 mills a year at 28 years old and injury prone.

If he "does well" it's because he's healthy, no?

I don't particularly care for Laine specifically, but think about what you are saying here...

If he "does well", by his talent level, we've got a 40goal ppg force added to our group... And the cap room to extend him if they asses him to be a long term fit. I may be dense, but I'm Not sure how that's a negative

I think that's why they are passing on him. They would rather get someone young on a good contract then a risky ageing player who will not peak at the same time of the rest of the group.

Agree. I think they will be aggressive, and decisive, in acquiring a key piece when it fits. Until then they will be content to kick tires on opportunities that don't compromise the overall direction. Patience. Commitment to building a culture of excellence.

Exactly what we've sorely lacked for far too long in this organization.

 

[SwiftyHab]

YET so many here say Engels is full of hot air. no source lol


now engels is correct. he gets blasted on here so many times. not sure if he is the correct source of all habs

The Habs beat reporter says there’s a minimal chance and he gave the reasons he heard from team officials for why. I’m inclined to beleive him

 

[BLONG7]

not arguing with you
but when Engels says something that fans agree with he is right
when he says things fans don't like, he is a talking head full of hot air

I guess if Freidman does not say it, then not true

Last year
Elliot says 95% PLD to Montreal
Zero credibility now

Engels and others who follow the Habs know nothing because Hughes doesn’t leak anything unless he wants to which is never
Relax guys
2 months left in the off-season

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

These guys get used for different things. Basu just got played on the Buium interest. But generally when none of the sources close to the Habs talk Laine and when they shut it down pretty firmly usually that means something.

I try to put two and two together. Is what he is saying likely with how they move? Engels conclusion is logical based on how Hugo have operated and what this group has valued.

I think the safest path is to simply take everything here with a grain of salt. They could be leading Columbus to believe they'll take Laine with a sweetener for all we know.

What matters is whether or not you think taking him makes sense or not (regardless of if it will actually be done) and can make a case for it. Personally, I'm more on the side that we search elsewhere. Some here disagree and that's fine. They may be right, I don't know.

 

[WeThreeKings]

ya true

I just laugh how many times Engels gets roasted on here.

They all get dragged, they were right on Michkov, wrong on Buium etc. They basically get fed info some is true some is to influence the market and other teams.

Ok let's say he comes in scores 80 goals over the final 2 years and is looking to get paid 9m. Why is that an instant problem? Because surely it's not actually a problem cap-wise.

Check when Slafkovsky and Guhles extensions kick in, and do the math on when Dach, Newhook, Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux will need new contracts. Factor in space needed for veterans and other trades/signings.

 

[junyab]

If he produce 60+pts why would he be unaffordable it is not like the will be better UFA that will be more affordable… If he produce 60+ he will be a valuable asset a the TDL, if he doesn’t resign, we get more that what we paid for him… If he 60+pts he will have help is line mate breakout. Also if we get Laine are rebuild is almost done we just have to hope that important prospect (Reinbacher, Demidov, etc) pan out.

He will be unaffordable because he will ask for more than Suzuki which I don't believe Hughes would pay, not even mentioning what are cap would be after resigning a lot more of our young guys.

Why are you assuming we would get more than we pay? A TDL rental is surely less valuable than someone signed.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Check when Slafkovsky and Guhles extensions kick in, and do the math on when Dach, Newhook, Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux will need new contracts. Factor in space needed for veterans and other trades/signings.

Nice problem to have.

I'd love to see a Monahan again. 1st coming and 1st going.

 

[Walksss]

One thing is for sure, if Laine was going to fetch a 1st + prospect(s) from anyone around the league he'd have packed his bags already.

A bunch of the Habs community is far too impatient and would have happily paid that price a week ago. A price that now looks ridiculous.

I love Hugo's patience and their ability to stick to the vision. I don't care about an extra year if it results in us being real contenders at the end of this thing, we haven't had that in such a long time.

 

[sampollock]

Last year
Elliot says 95% PLD to Montreal
Zero credibility now

Engels and others who follow the Habs know nothing because Hughes doesn’t leak anything unless he wants to which is never
Relax guys
2 months left in the off-season

that makes total sense good post

One thing is for sure, if Laine was going to fetch a 1st + prospect(s) from anyone around the league he'd have packed his bags already.

A bunch of the Habs community is far too impatient and would have happily paid that price a week ago. A price that now looks ridiculous.

I love Hugo's patience and their ability to stick to the vision. I don't care about an extra year if it results in us being real contenders at the end of this thing, we haven't had that in such a long time.

his patience is one of his strong points as GM

 

[Habs10Habs]

The Habs beat reporter says there’s a minimal chance and he gave the reasons he heard from team officials for why. I’m inclined to beleive him

Heard from team officials. Or came to the conclusion on his own? I'm leaning towards option 2.

 

[sampollock]

Heard from team officials. Or came to the conclusion on his own? I'm leaning towards option 2.

his own sounds more like it

 

[Sorinth]

Check when Slafkovsky and Guhles extensions kick in, and do the math on when Dach, Newhook, Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux will need new contracts. Factor in space needed for veterans and other trades/signings.

Ok here goes, in 2 years we re-sign Laine at 9m and this is our roster.
Caufield (7.85) - Suzuki (7.875) - Slafkovsky (7.6)
Laine (9.0) - Dach (8.0) - Demidov (0.95)
Roy (3.0) - Beck (0.85) - Newhook (2.9)
Kapanen (0.925) - Xhekaj (0.87) - Tuch (0.95)
Plug A (0.9)
Plug B (0.8)

Guhle (5.5) - Mailloux (4.0)
Hutson (7.0) - Reinbacher (0.92)
Xhekaj (4.0) - Barron (2.0)
Struble (2.0)

Montembeault (3.15)
Dobes (1.1)

Retained Trade: 2.75 (Anderson)
Buyout: 3.8 (Gallagher in final year)

That's 88.69m which is basically this years cap, meaning we will be well under the cap which will be rising over those years. And when Reinbacher comes up the following year, and Demidov's the year after that we'd be looking at >15m of cap space to re-sign them thanks to the rising cap and Anderson+Gallaghers money coming off the book.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Ok here goes, in 2 years we re-sign Laine at 9m and this is our roster.
Caufield (7.85) - Suzuki (7.875) - Slafkovsky (7.6)
Laine (9.0) - Dach (8.0) - Demidov (0.95)
Roy (3.0) - Beck (0.85) - Newhook (2.9)
Kapanen (0.925) - Xhekaj (0.87) - Tuch (0.95)
Plug A (0.9)
Plug B (0.8)

Guhle (5.5) - Mailloux (4.0)
Hutson (7.0) - Reinbacher (0.92)
Xhekaj (4.0) - Barron (2.0)
Struble (2.0)

Montembeault (3.15)
Dobes (1.1)

Retained Trade: 2.75 (Anderson)
Buyout: 3.8 (Gallagher in final year)

That's 88.69m which is basically this years cap, meaning we will be well under the cap which will be rising over those years. And when Reinbacher comes up the following year, and Demidov's the year after that we'd be looking at >15m of cap space to re-sign them thanks to the rising cap and Anderson+Gallaghers money coming off the book.

And then you have to pay Reinbacher and Demidov

 

[Sorinth]

And then you have to pay Reinbacher and Demidov

Which was answered in the paragraph at the bottom of the post.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

And even then, Dach getting 8 and Hutson getting 7 is two years time is most definitely assuming these guys hit in absolutely massive ways.

 

[Tyson]

My opinion carries no weight, so I did a quick search for goalie rankings and most (actually all of the 12 lists I saw) lists have our goalies in the bottom 10. They're not even in the top 3 of non-playoff teams.

Agreed but we saw how well Monty played at the World Championships when he had a decent D in front of him.

 

[junyab]

Again, there's no way Hughes is paying Laine more than Suzuki. So he'll walk in 2 years. Thus, making the next 2 years of Laine pointless. All it does is put us a playoff bubble at best, more likely it moves us from a bottom 5-8 to a bottom 10-12, which is a reminder of the Bergevin era, one that no one wants to revisit.

 

[Beer and Chips]

Roy (3.0) - Beck (0.85) - Newhook (2.9)
Kapanen (0.925) - Xhekaj (0.87) - Tuch (0.95)

In two years this is your bottom six. To be effective that would be an incredible mass progression without veteran support.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Heard from team officials. Or came to the conclusion on his own? I'm leaning towards option 2.

No he said he heard from officials

 

[Sorinth]

In two years this is your bottom six. To be effective that would be an incredible mass progression without veteran support.

For the most part they are place holders to give an idea, if the prospects don't develop then you can just as easily sign the Sprong, Atkinson, Olofson types who cost the same and are available every year. Not too mention due to the cap rising that lineup probably has >6m of cap space to work with if you wanted to go get a bigger name.

 

[The Great Weal]

engels is usually fairly accurate in org sentiment, if he had said "they're looking to fill a top 6 role and Laine fits that mold" id believe there in on him as well but not at any price.

He's not coming out and saying anything new or earth shattering, but he does usually have a decent pulse on the org overall

Engels was also certain that there would be a lot of changes between the end of the season and the start of camp which is like a month away. He pretty much lost all credibility for me if we don't make big trades in the next month. He should stick to his "I think Habs want to get better short term and long term" schtick because even I knew we wouldn't do anything this year.

As for Laine, I don't really think it makes sense to give up an asset for him at that contract which falls in line with what Engels said, but his word still doesn't really mean much to me.

 

[sampollock]

Again, there's no way Hughes is paying Laine more than Suzuki. So he'll walk in 2 years. Thus, making the next 2 years of Laine pointless. All it does is put us a playoff bubble at best, more likely it moves us from a bottom 5-8 to a bottom 10-12, which is a reminder of the Bergevin era, one that no one wants to revisit.

thus the retained salary by CBJ

 

[Habs10Habs]

No he said he heard from officials

It's possible, but I find it hard to believe.

 

[sampollock]

Engels was also certain that there would be a lot of changes between now and the start of camp which is like a month away. He pretty much lost all credibility for me if we don't make big trades in the next month. He should stick to his "I think Habs want to get better short term and long term" schtick because even I knew we wouldn't do anything this year.

good post
Agree... he knows squat