The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Blue Blooded]

While encouraging, boy do I hesitate to believe that ADA projects better than Sergachev.

BTW - if you want to re-add player ages, I scraped from Hockey-Reference because I needed it for MILLER.

https://docs.google. com/spreadsheets/d/1n8FVaVKpsZ-VCR-N7kjcIzhCS9-LDOat53_6f-nlB-M/edit?usp=sharing

[unbreak the link when you go to it. HF preview breaks it]

RE: DeAngelo predicitons. I agree that they are encouraging and I also agree that DeAngelo likely doesn't become a superior player than Sergachev. I was merely curious since my model loves them both and I was also curious as to how Will "All-Rookie Team" Butcher compared. Seems Butcher was punished for his "passivity" (most points from secondary assists, few shots and low ixGF60).

Also RE: Sergachev. I looked into the PP numbers of TBL's and NYR's defencemen and it looks like Sergachev and DeAngelo were both performing better than their team's established PPQBs despite being exiled to the secondary units. It was more evident with Sergachev, though in fairness there is quite a bit of difference between Point-Gourde-Johnson-Palat and Desharnais-THRILLHOU-Hayes-Vesey.

 

[silverfish]

2018 #RITSAC Slides and Video

Nerd out

 

[silverfish]

Make your own damn post-game charts

 

[silverfish]

Steve Santini was the league's worst 5v5 relCF60 d-man last year [min 500 minutes]. He holds the distinction of being one of five d-men to be worse at this than Neal Pionk was last year. Y. Weber, Emelin, Braun, Gunnarson.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Steve Santini was the league's worst 5v5 relCF60 d-man last year [min 500 minutes]. He holds the distinction of being one of five d-men to be worse at this than Neal Pionk was last year. Y. Weber, Emelin, Braun, Gunnarson.

It's odd, because his results in 16-17 seemed legitimately good and then he went and put up some of the worst numbers in the league across the board in 17-18.

It seems like he was thrown to the wolves usage-wise (like Pionk) and handled it... poorly (worse than Pionk).

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Interesting stuff here



McDonagh is one of my favorite Rangers of recent memory. Love the player. I think it was partially a mistake to not hold onto him and see what he can do with a new coach, in Quinn's system and play with Shattenkirk more

But maybe they were right to trade him at the deadline. A lot of people think his contract in Tampa will be a problem for them in the future. I wonder what people would have said if he re-signed here for 7.5m+

 

[Machinehead]

Interesting stuff here



McDonagh is one of my favorite Rangers of recent memory. Love the player. I think it was partially a mistake to not hold onto him and see what he can do with a new coach, in Quinn's system and play with Shattenkirk more

But maybe they were right to trade him at the deadline. A lot of people think his contract in Tampa will be a problem for them in the future. I wonder what people would have said if he re-signed here for 7.5m+

Everyone makes a big deal about it but I don't think people realize that elite players get 11 now.

 

[Mac n Gs]

We should probably bring back Sproul as another RHD depth. He had good underlying numbers in a short stint here and was solid for Hartford. We still bodies at RD in the organization because it'll be scarce for the next few years.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Ryan Ellis has got to have the worst contract negotiators in the league. First he signs a 5y $2.5M contract coming off his ELC and now he got like 67 cents on the dollar on his 8y extension. I'm not sure what Poile's secret is, but every contract he's negotiated has come in well below market value except for Johansen's extension.

 

[Blue Blooded]

We should probably bring back Sproul as another RHD depth. He had good underlying numbers in a short stint here and was solid for Hartford. We still bodies at RD in the organization because it'll be scarce for the next few years.

Probably, I prefer him over Kampfer and I think he has the upside to become a legit bottom-pairing guy. However, I'm unsure whether I'd prefer to shift Smith over to RD and play Claesson or to put Sproul in if one of Shatty, ADA or Pionk goes down.

He's another guy that could play in the Zibanejad-role on the PP2 along with Pionk, Lettieri and Meskanen. The PP2 was straight up fire when Lettieri was on it last year.

 

[Blue Blooded]

If the Hawks overreact and are willing to cut bait on Toews and Saad, would you do it? Something along the lines of Toews, Saad and Gustafsson for Hayes, Spooner and Staal.

I'd have a hard time saying no, their underlying numbers say they are still legit top-end 1st liners 5v5. I think Chicago would completely implode without them.

Sign Nick Shore as 4C.

Namestnikov-Toews-Saad
Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello
Andersson-Chytil-Buchnevich
Vesey-Shore-Fast

Smith-Shattenkirk
Skjei-DeAngelo
Gustafsson-Pionk

See who sinks or swims on the skilled but unproven defence. If the Rangers are a top team around the deadline, keep Zuccarello as a rental - otherwise trade him. Kravtsov, Howden, Hajek and Rykov challenge for spots in 2019-20. Kreider and Namestnikov are given the Zuccarello treatment - either kept as rentals or traded if the team does not look like a legit contender.

 

[mrmovies779]

If the Hawks overreact and are willing to cut bait on Toews and Saad, would you do it? Something along the lines of Toews, Saad and Gustafsson for Hayes, Spooner and Staal.

I'd have a hard time saying no, their underlying numbers say they are still legit top-end 1st liners 5v5. I think Chicago would completely implode without them.

Sign Nick Shore as 4C.

Namestnikov-Toews-Saad
Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello
Andersson-Chytil-Buchnevich
Vesey-Shore-Fast

Smith-Shattenkirk
Skjei-DeAngelo
Gustafsson-Pionk

See who sinks or swims on the skilled but unproven defence. If the Rangers are a top team around the deadline, keep Zuccarello as a rental - otherwise trade him. Kravtsov, Howden, Hajek and Rykov challenge for spots in 2019-20. Kreider and Namestnikov are given the Zuccarello treatment - either kept as rentals or traded if the team does not look like a legit contender.

I wouldnt,no.Toews has so much term left on that contract...10.5 million for 5 years.Going to be 31 and start to decline soon.Not the type of move a rebuilding team should be making.If we end up trading Hayes,Spooner and Staal it would be better trading them off individually to try to maximize the return on each,not package them together.Unless of course we get blown away with an offer thats too good to pass up.

 

[Mac n Gs]

If the Hawks overreact and are willing to cut bait on Toews and Saad, would you do it? Something along the lines of Toews, Saad and Gustafsson for Hayes, Spooner and Staal.

I'd have a hard time saying no, their underlying numbers say they are still legit top-end 1st liners 5v5. I think Chicago would completely implode without them.

Sign Nick Shore as 4C.

Namestnikov-Toews-Saad
Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello
Andersson-Chytil-Buchnevich
Vesey-Shore-Fast

Smith-Shattenkirk
Skjei-DeAngelo
Gustafsson-Pionk

See who sinks or swims on the skilled but unproven defence. If the Rangers are a top team around the deadline, keep Zuccarello as a rental - otherwise trade him. Kravtsov, Howden, Hajek and Rykov challenge for spots in 2019-20. Kreider and Namestnikov are given the Zuccarello treatment - either kept as rentals or traded if the team does not look like a legit contender.

Signing Shore should really be a no brainer at this point. He'd add another right-handed shot to the lineup and 2nd unit PK option.

As to Toews, I'd stay away just because I do not think he'll perform like a $10.5M player over the next 5 years. If we're going to sink that much money into a player, they need to make sure it's someone who will perform well relative to the cap hit. I think it's also important to factor in how he's played almost two additional years of hockey based on the amount of playoff and international games.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I wouldnt,no.Toews has so much term left on that contract...10.5 million for 5 years.Going to be 31 and start to decline soon.Not the type of move a rebuilding team should be making.If we end up trading Hayes,Spooner and Staal it would be better trading them off individually to try to maximize the return on each,not package them together.Unless of course we get blown away with an offer thats too good to pass up.

Signing Shore should really be a no brainer at this point. He'd add another right-handed shot to the lineup and 2nd unit PK option.

As to Toews, I'd stay away just because I do not think he'll perform like a $10.5M player over the next 5 years. If we're going to sink that much money into a player, they need to make sure it's someone who will perform well relative to the cap hit. I think it's also important to factor in how he's played almost two additional years of hockey based on the amount of playoff and international games.

Sure, Toews is not worth $10.5M - if he was he wouldn't be available. But I'd put his current value closer to $9M than the $6M people are throwing around. And you also get Brandon "Chris Kreider" Saad in the deal and get rid of Staal's contract. Maybe you can get Chicago to retain a bit on the contract. I see Toews anno 2018 as a close parallel to Eric Staal anno 2016 - a legit 1C who has had a "false decline" and can be had for significantly under market value.

Saad-Toews-X is like Kreider-Zibanejad-X, whoever you put alongside them the line is going to dominate 5v5. Having two such lines would be incredible - I believe that the team I listed above would be a cup contender, given that the defence doesn't completely implode (which is a definite possibility). How do you match up against that top-9?

Fair point on the lack of tread on Toews' tyres though, hadn't considered that.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Side note before I respond to this- why don’t people mention Bo Horvat when discussing Lias Andersson. I’ve been thinking Alex Steen as a comparable, but he’s on a Horvat-esque trajectory. I’d love for him to become that type of player.

Sure, Toews is not worth $10.5M - if he was he wouldn't be available. But I'd put his current value closer to $9M than the $6M people are throwing around. And you also get Brandon "Chris Kreider" Saad in the deal and get rid of Staal's contract. Maybe you can get Chicago to retain a bit on the contract. I see Toews anno 2018 as a close parallel to Eric Staal anno 2016 - a legit 1C who has had a "false decline" and can be had for significantly under market value.

Saad-Toews-X is like Kreider-Zibanejad-X, whoever you put alongside them the line is going to dominate 5v5. Having two such lines would be incredible - I believe that the team I listed above would be a cup contender, given that the defence doesn't completely implode (which is a definite possibility). How do you match up against that top-9?

Fair point on the lack of tread on Toews' tyres though, hadn't considered that.

I’m not trying to discredit him as a good player because I still think he is very good. It just boils down to cap management and allocating that much money to a depreciating asset. Saad is a different story because he’s the obvious choice for a rebound season: highest ixGF/60 (6th in the league!), high shot rate, but lowest career shooting%. If Chicago is dumb enough to move him, we should be all over it. It would give us the ability to roll out two very dangerous LW between him and Kreider, and they’d both help open up space for other players. Imagine Chytil and Saad together? Drool.
I think your point about Chicago imploding without him kinda suggests that there’s no way they’ll move him, right? Is there antthing that suggests they’d move him for anything below market value?

 

[Blue Blooded]

Side note before I respond to this- why don’t people mention Bo Horvat when discussing Lias Andersson. I’ve been thinking Alex Steen as a comparable, but he’s on a Horvat-esque trajectory. I’d love for him to become that type of player.


I’m not trying to discredit him as a good player because I still think he is very good. It just boils down to cap management and allocating that much money to a depreciating asset. Saad is a different story because he’s the obvious choice for a rebound season: highest ixGF/60 (6th in the league!), high shot rate, but lowest career shooting%. If Chicago is dumb enough to move him, we should be all over it. It would give us the ability to roll out two very dangerous LW between him and Kreider, and they’d both help open up space for other players. Imagine Chytil and Saad together? Drool.
I think your point about Chicago imploding without him kinda suggests that there’s no way they’ll move him, right? Is there antthing that suggests they’d move him for anything below market value?

It's a hypothetical, would you do that trade if Chicago were willing? I think I'd have to do it. I was inspired by a thread on the Trade board where some Chicago fans were anxious to jettison Toews onto the Rangers.

Does Bowman realize they'd implode without Toews and Saad? Not sure TBH. If they believe that Kane is a superstar that can carry his line and not the rich man's Thomas Vanek that I think he is, they might be willing to do such a trade. Moving Panarin to begin with suggests that they weren't able to identify the real driver on the Panarin-Anisimov-Kane line (it was obviously Anisimov ). Maybe they see Toews and Saad putting up 87 points on a combined cap hit of $16.5M and are relieved that someone else is willing to carry that burden.

 

[Mac n Gs]

It's a hypothetical, would you do that trade if Chicago were willing? I think I'd have to do it. I was inspired by a thread on the Trade board where some Chicago fans were anxious to jettison Toews onto the Rangers.

Does Bowman realize they'd implode without Toews and Saad? Not sure TBH. If they believe that Kane is a superstar that can carry his line and not the rich man's Thomas Vanek that I think he is, they might be willing to do such a trade. Moving Panarin to begin with suggests that they weren't able to identify the real driver on the Panarin-Anisimov-Kane line (it was obviously Anisimov ). Maybe they see Toews and Saad putting up 87 points on a combined cap hit of $16.5M and are relieved that someone else is willing to carry that burden.

I mean if that’s the deal, then it’s an obvious yes. You shed Staal’s contract and get back two much better pieces than Hayes and Spooner. It’d be tight on the cap, but we have prospects that can backfill the depth in the interim.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I mean if that’s the deal, then it’s an obvious yes. You shed Staal’s contract and get back two much better pieces than Hayes and Spooner. It’d be tight on the cap, but we have prospects that can backfill the depth in the interim.

Exactly my thinking

 

[DanielBrassard]

I'd be weary to make that trade, not because Saad and Toews are bad, but because I want to keep enough cap room open for Panarin/Karlsson/Seguin/Stone if they are available.

 

[silverfish]

@Blue Blooded have you done any research on player development after usage changes? How much better do players' numbers get when there usage gets easier and vice versa? Could probably use dCorsi for something like this, estimated performance, but wondering if you've looked into it or have anything.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Does anyone else have issues sorting data on corsica? Simple things like ranking from highest-to-lowest only work for certain stats.

 

[SA16]

Yea the site loads way quicker now and doesn't crash but sorting is broken.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Does anyone else have issues sorting data on corsica? Simple things like ranking from highest-to-lowest only work for certain stats.

Yea the site loads way quicker now and doesn't crash but sorting is broken.

Can confirm that the same issue occurs from a Swedish IP (not that you'd expect anything different).

Another issue is that if you select several seasons, but don't aggregate them, they still show as e.g. 16-18, 16-18. Which is a lot more annoying and harder to work around than the broken sorting.

 

[Blue Blooded]

@Blue Blooded have you done any research on player development after usage changes? How much better do players' numbers get when there usage gets easier and vice versa? Could probably use dCorsi for something like this, estimated performance, but wondering if you've looked into it or have anything.

My current model projects how a player would perform if he moved to a new team. Merely projecting season-to-season would just put the players from the top teams at the top.

I have not developed models for specific roles though. I have wanted to try it, but have never gone through with it with the rationale that the samples would be too small (players moving teams between two specific roles). Fortunately, I think my inner developer made me write the programs in a way that asking that question wouldn't require any new coding. But I haven't picked at the bones of the code in over a year so I've forgotten how most of the features I made (several years ago) actually work since commenting your code is for Mittelstadt's.

 

[Blue Blooded]

My current model projects how a player would perform if he moved to a new team. Merely projecting season-to-season would just put the players from the top teams at the top.

I have not developed models for specific roles though. I have wanted to try it, but have never gone through with it with the rationale that the samples would be too small (players moving teams between two specific roles). Fortunately, I think my inner developer made me write the programs in a way that asking that question wouldn't require any new coding. But I haven't picked at the bones of the code in over a year so I've forgotten how most of the features I made (several years ago) actually work since commenting your code is for Mittelstadt's.

I thought wrong. Not sure when I'll have the spare hours and energy to implement it.