The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Mac n Gs]

In all fairness , I thought “Oh this **** don’t matter, anyway” because he was rated so absurdly high.

It’s skewed due to his playoff performance and playing in the KHL. The playoff performance really inflate his numbers, but I’d guess he’d still be in that top-20 with half the playoff points.

His age-adjusted KHL scoring comparables are some elite players like Kuznetsov and Panarin. I don’t think he has that dynamic ability yet, but he’s definitely incredibly skilled and has talked about wanting to be that player that makes a team win. I’m pretty damn happy we have him, even when I wanted Wahlstrom. I like both players a lot.

 

[silverfish]

It’s skewed due to his playoff performance and playing in the KHL. The playoff performance really inflate his numbers, but I’d guess he’d still be in that top-20 with half the playoff points.

His age-adjusted KHL scoring comparables are some elite players like Kuznetsov and Panarin. I don’t think he has that dynamic ability yet, but he’s definitely incredibly skilled and has talked about wanting to be that player that makes a team win. I’m pretty damn happy we have him, even when I wanted Wahlstrom. I like both players a lot.

His playoff performance needs to be a sign of things to come with the increase in time on ice, and not just a player getting hot at the right time. This season will be extremely telling for what we did at this draft (thank you, captain obvious).

 

[Mac n Gs]

His playoff performance needs to be a sign of things to come with the increase in time on ice, and not just a player getting hot at the right time. This season will be extremely telling for what we did at this draft (thank you, captain obvious).

His regular season performance was promising too, so I’m hoping it’s a bit of both with luck and increasing TOI. I do want him to stay in the KHL this season since there’s no need to rush and he has a prime chance for top-line minutes.

 

[silverfish]

His regular season performance was promising too, so I’m hoping it’s a bit of both with luck and increasing TOI. I do want him to stay in the KHL this season since there’s no need to rush and he has a prime chance for top-line minutes.

Looking at regular season KHL, who are his comparables for their 17-18 year old season? Not even gonna look at Cherepanov's (RIP) because I know his was ridiculous.

So we've got:

Kravtsov: 7 in 35 (0.2)
Kucherov: 2 in 9 (0.22)
Panarin: 1 in 5 (0.2)
Kovalchuk: N/A
Malkin: 12 in 34 (0.35)
Ovechkin: 15 in 40 (0.375)
Kuzy: 8 in 35 (0.23)
Tarasenko: 10 in 38 (0.26)

Not gonna do anymore. Also, it's not like I'm drawing any major conclusions from this before someone comes into this thread and sees this and yells at me.

BTW...

Cherepanov: 29 in 46 (0.63).... ugh.

Now somebody do Wahlstrom to Eichel

 

[Kakko]

Looking at regular season KHL, who are his comparables for their 17-18 year old season? Not even gonna look at Cherepanov's (RIP) because I know his was ridiculous.

So we've got:

Kravtsov: 7 in 35 (0.2)
Kucherov: 2 in 9 (0.22)
Panarin: 1 in 5 (0.2)
Kovalchuk: N/A
Malkin: 12 in 34 (0.35)
Ovechkin: 15 in 40 (0.375)
Kuzy: 8 in 35 (0.23)
Tarasenko: 10 in 38 (0.26)

Not gonna do anymore. Also, it's not like I'm drawing any major conclusions from this before someone comes into this thread and sees this and yells at me.

BTW...

Cherepanov: 29 in 46 (0.63).... ugh.

Now somebody do Wahlstrom to Eichel

So, 2007 was a bit before I got way too into this dumb sport. How did Cherepanov end up at 17, considering Ovechkin and Malkin going 1/2? Was there some major change between 2004 and 2007?

 

[Irishguy42]

Not even gonna look at Cherepanov's (RIP) because I know his was ridiculous.

Thank you

BTW...

Cherepanov: 29 in 46 (0.63).... ugh.

Bruh, how could you do me dirty like this?

 

[silverfish]

So, 2007 was a bit before I got way too into this dumb sport. How did Cherepanov end up at 17, considering Ovechkin and Malkin going 1/2? Was there some major change between 2004 and 2007?

From what I remember there was some hesitation on selecting him because teams weren't sure if he'd ever come to North America.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Looking at regular season KHL, who are his comparables for their 17-18 year old season? Not even gonna look at Cherepanov's (RIP) because I know his was ridiculous.

So we've got:

Kravtsov: 7 in 35 (0.2)
Kucherov: 2 in 9 (0.22)
Panarin: 1 in 5 (0.2)
Kovalchuk: N/A
Malkin: 12 in 34 (0.35)
Ovechkin: 15 in 40 (0.375)
Kuzy: 8 in 35 (0.23)
Tarasenko: 10 in 38 (0.26)

Not gonna do anymore. Also, it's not like I'm drawing any major conclusions from this before someone comes into this thread and sees this and yells at me.

BTW...

Cherepanov: 29 in 46 (0.63).... ugh.

Now somebody do Wahlstrom to Eichel

f***, I always forget just how stupid good Cherepanov was. Those numbers are just stupid.

Eichel’s D-1 year was better than Wahlstrom’s draft year (Eichel is the oldest in his draft class). Eichel’s draft year involved dropping 71 in 40 at BU, which is also absurd. It’s amazing how good he is on such a bad team.

 

[Kakko]

From what I remember there was some hesitation on selecting him because teams weren't sure if he'd ever come to North America.

Ok, I guess that's a reason. It just seems to me like Russian prospects started dropping all around after 2004. Which seems really strange considering Ovi/Malkin's respective rookie seasons.

 

[silverfish]

****, I always forget just how stupid good Cherepanov was. Those numbers are just stupid.

Eichel’s D-1 year was better than Wahlstrom’s draft year (Eichel is the oldest in his draft class). Eichel’s draft year involved dropping 71 in 40 at BU, which is also absurd. It’s amazing how good he is on such a bad team.

Forget draft year relative, let's talk age. Eichel's 13-14 is the same age season as Wahlstroms 17-18 (age 17-18 season). Eichel is like Lias. An older draft pick. He was 19 in October the same year of his draft. Wahlstrom won't be 19 until the end of the season in June.

And holy shit again before someone kills me, I'm not saying Wahlstrom will be as good as Eichel.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Forget draft year relative, let's talk age. Eichel's 13-14 is the same age season as Wahlstroms 17-18 (age 17-18 season). Eichel is like Lias. An older draft pick. He was 19 in October the same year of his draft. Wahlstrom won't be 19 until the end of the season in June.

71 points in 40 BU games. Insane.

 

[silverfish]

71 points in 40 BU games. Insane.

Yes that is some dirty shit but that's his age 18-19 season, despite being his draft year, he's basically a year older relative to Wahlstrom. So I'd compare Wahlstrom's 17-18 to Eichel's 13-14. The season where each player went from age 17 to age 18.

Eichel is a full hockey season older relative to Wahlstrom (October birthday vs June birthday).

We had similar arguments when looking for Lias comparables, I remember. Birthdays near the draft cutoff.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Yes that is some dirty **** but that's his age 18-19 season, despite being his draft year, he's basically a year older relative to Wahlstrom. So I'd compare Wahlstrom's 17-18 to Eichel's 13-14. The season where each player went from age 17 to age 18.

Eichel is a full hockey season older relative to Wahlstrom (October birthday vs June birthday).

We had similar arguments when looking for Lias comparables, I remember. Birthdays near the draft cutoff.

Then it’s 45 in 24 USHL games and 87 in 53 USDP games. Still, amazing.

 

[silverfish]

Then it’s 45 in 24 USHL games and 87 in 53 USDP games. Still, amazing.

And Wahlstrom?

 

[mike14]

So, 2007 was a bit before I got way too into this dumb sport. How did Cherepanov end up at 17, considering Ovechkin and Malkin going 1/2? Was there some major change between 2004 and 2007?

As well as the aforementioned concerns over whether he'd actually get to NA, there were a few concerns about his overall compete level, how'd go missing for shifts and occasionally games at a time, and his perceived lack of defensive game.
I remember reading a few scouting reports which talked about him basically hanging out at the blueline while his teammates played 4-on-5 in the defensive zone.

That and the contract situation made the risk/reward too high for a few teams

 

[Mac n Gs]

And Wahlstrom?

45 in 26 USHL
94 in 62 USDP

 

[silverfish]

45 in 26 USHL
94 in 62 USDP

It ain't far.

 

[Mac n Gs]

It ain't far.

Which is why it’s important to not read to much into the NHLe because there will be these case-by-case situations where additional measures are needed for evaluation.

I’m still not sure if I agree with Manny abouy grouping his playoffs with his regular season play.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Which is why it’s important to not read to much into the NHLe because there will be these case-by-case situations where additional measures are needed for evaluation.

I’m still not sure if I agree with Manny abouy grouping his playoffs with his regular season play.

You're not sure...

 

[Mac n Gs]

You're not sure...

Basically it boils down to sample sizes and if playoffs are a SSS and should be combined. I understand his viewpoint, but am leaning towards disagreeing.

 

[Doctyl]

f*** I forgot how good Cherry was. RIP. It’s not fair to anyone.

 

[silverfish]

Which is why it’s important to not read to much into the NHLe because there will be these case-by-case situations where additional measures are needed for evaluation.

I’m still not sure if I agree with Manny abouy grouping his playoffs with his regular season play.

I don't think NHLe was created to tell the whole story but instead created in an attempt to level the playing field and try and recognize "off the board" talent. I believe Manny is using this as a precusor to where scouts should be focusing their attention, if they are not focused there already.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't think NHLe was created to tell the whole story but instead created in an attempt to level the playing field and try and recognize "off the board" talent. I believe Manny is using this as a precusor to where scouts should be focusing their attention, if they are not focused there already.

Oh, I completely agree. But my question to you is, isn’t it kind of obvious? If you have a draft eligible kid scoring against men in one lf the big Euro leagues, they’re probably on scouting lists already.

Then again, this is the NHL and we still have a heavy bias towards juniors hockey, so maybe not. Shafigulin has the 12th highest ppg for a U19 season in MHL history. The eleven above him:
1) VITALI KRAVTSOV MOTHERf***ERS (3 points in 1 game )
2) Kaprizov
3) Kuznetsov 10-11 season
4) kucherov
5) orlov
6) kuznetsov 09-10 season
7) artyom manukyan
8) igor shvyryov
9) prokhorkin
10) maxim shalunov
11) yaroslav alshevsky

 

[silverfish]

Oh, I completely agree. But my question to you is, isn’t it kind of obvious? If you have a draft eligible kid scoring against men in one lf the big Euro leagues, they’re probably on scouting lists already.

Then again, this is the NHL and we still have a heavy bias towards juniors hockey, so maybe not. Shafigulin has the 12th highest ppg for a U19 season in MHL history. The eleven above him:
1) VITALI KRAVTSOV MOTHER****ERS (3 points in 1 game )
2) Kaprizov
3) Kuznetsov 10-11 season
4) kucherov
5) orlov
6) kuznetsov 09-10 season
7) artyom manukyan
8) igor shvyryov
9) prokhorkin
10) maxim shalunov
11) yaroslav alshevsky

Yeah, some are more obvious than others, but you could say that about really any metric that gets created or is new to analysis, right? Of course Karlsson has great shot attempt metrics, that's obvious. The goal is to find the not so obvious ones.

Like when you trade Derek Stepan and need to replace him. Re-creating in the aggregate for cheap. You need to find the market inefficiency (in NHLe's case, who is the kid that's in some obscure league that no one is watching but is actually good?) and put your resources towards that.

Look at Mascherin. What an example. We have two extra years of data on Mascherin and still no team took him until 100th overall. Just a complete intentional oversight. With the 100th overall pick, the Dallas Stars selected a player, who at worst, will be in their AHL's top-6 this season.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Yeah, some are more obvious than others, but you could say that about really any metric that gets created or is new to analysis, right? Of course Karlsson has great shot attempt metrics, that's obvious. The goal is to find the not so obvious ones.

Like when you trade Derek Stepan and need to replace him. Re-creating in the aggregate for cheap. You need to find the market inefficiency (in NHLe's case, who is the kid that's in some obscure league that no one is watching but is actually good?) and put your resources towards that.

Look at Mascherin. What an example. We have two extra years of data on Mascherin and still no team took him until 100th overall. Just a complete intentional oversight. With the 100th overall pick, the Dallas Stars selected a player, who at worst, will be in their AHL's top-6 this season.

Ugh, don’t remind me. It’s why I’m so against trading Hayes because we have very object measures that he excelled as a matchup C this season, and we don’t have another NHL C except for him and Mika. Moving him, just to give Chytil ice time, is silly. Chytil already has an open slot since Desharnais left for the KHL.