The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Harbour Dog]

@Harbour Dog

Thank you!

My eye test doesn't quite match up, but I think that's because of the disparity in shot quality. Will be interesting to see what tendencies a better team has in comparison to the dumpster fire we iced this year.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

@silverfish

Could you upload the charts for Col/Nsh for me

Thanks boo

 

[silverfish]

@silverfish

Could you upload the charts for Col/Nsh for me

Thanks boo

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Yeah, that’s about what I was expected to see

Fiala is lit

 

[silverfish]

Jeez, look at all those even players

 

[silverfish]

The future of the Rangers rests largely on the organization’s ability to identify and develop young defensemen. General manager Jeff Gorton and his personnel department are responsible for the first part of the equation. If Libor Hajek, Ryan Lindgren, Yegor Rykov, Neal Pionk and John Gilmour are the wrong guys, then the road back to contention will be a long and winding one. And that is the road merely to playoff contention.
If management has correctly identified these defensemen as prospects, then the responsibility falls on the coaching staff to teach and develop them, individually and within a team structure designed to suppress shots and chances. That applies to Brady Skjei and Tony DeAngelo as much as the previously cited blueliners.

Hate agreeing with Brooks but this is exactly the shit I've been saying for months.

Are these the right guys?

 

[Irishguy42]

Hate agreeing with Brooks but this is exactly the **** I've been saying for months.

Are these the right guys?

You can ask this question about like...95+% of prospects in general, IMO.

This is not a Rangers exclusive thing. Every GM needs to ask themselves "Are these the right guys?" and usually the answer is not immediately obvious.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Jeez, look at all those even players

And then look at Bieksa and Manson

 

[Harbour Dog]

Jeez, look at all those even players

Three defensemen in their top four CF% and three defensemen as their bottom three.

That this could happen while Montour and Beauchemin were a pairing is pretty remarkable.

 

[silverfish]

You can ask this question about like...95+% of prospects in general, IMO.

This is not a Rangers exclusive thing. Every GM needs to ask themselves "Are these the right guys?" and usually the answer is not immediately obvious.

Sure, but the general consensus seems to be that these guys are the right guys because they are our guys.

 

[Irishguy42]

Sure, but the general consensus seems to be that these guys are the right guys because they are our guys.

General consensus from the fans perspective or the managements perspective?

 

[silverfish]

General consensus from the fans perspective or the managements perspective?

For now? Fans. I think this off-season will tell us how the organization feels. But we can speculate on what we do know how like ADA was targeted specifically in the Stepan trade.

 

[Irishguy42]

For now? Fans. I think this off-season will tell us how the organization feels. But we can speculate on what we do know how like ADA was targeted specifically in the Stepan trade.

Agreed. But even then, I feel like it'll still be just mostly speculation.

It's one giant grey area and the clearest you can get is grey, and the other end of the spectrum is total darkness.

 

[silverfish]

Agreed. But even then, I feel like it'll still be just mostly speculation.

It's one giant grey area and the clearest you can get is grey, and the other end of the spectrum is total darkness.

Well, we'll get some context clues this off-season. See the kind of contract that they give Skjei. See if they bring in another RD or just assume Pionk and ADA are those guys with Shattenkirk.

My whole pessimism here is that I don't think the org has reason to believe that Skjei and Pionk are a good future to build around, but I fear the organization believes the opposite. Total speculation, obviously.

 

[Mac n Gs]

When I get a chance, I kinda want to do a deep dive into how Stevens' defenses faired relative to the league since his name has been popping up as a HC option. Vally weighed in showing some support for him, so maybe there is some statistical backing for him?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

@silverfish GREENWAY BABY

 

[Leetch3]

ok serious question i know you fancy stat guys worship boy wonder chayka...but why have none of you brought to my attention his sister that is also a analytics wizard? big thanks to ryan spooner for liking her pic on twitter lol

 

[silverfish]

@silverfish GREENWAY BABY

Wasn't even a nice goal. Doesn't count. 0.027 xG on that shot. 40 ft wrist shot. puh-lease.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Wasn't even a nice goal. Doesn't count. 0.027 xG on that shot. 40 ft wrist shot. puh-lease.

Goalie was screened, but yeah I agree. I really wonder how those factors will start getting weighted into these models once it becomes readily available, i.e., goalie screening, pre-shot attempt puck movement, etc.

 

[silverfish]

Goalie was screened, but yeah I agree. I really wonder how those factors will start getting weighted into these models once it becomes readily available, i.e., goalie screening, pre-shot attempt puck movement, etc.

I don't care how many people are in front of you, it's a 40 ft wrist shot and he wasn't even facing the net when he shot it. He literally just blindly threw the puck at the net and Helly missed it.

Goals can be bad, nev.

 

[Thirty One]

Wasn't even a nice goal. Doesn't count. 0.027 xG on that shot. 40 ft wrist shot. puh-lease.

Greenway routinely makes 0.027 xG shots look like 0.039 xG shots. He's that good.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't care how many people are in front of you, it's a 40 ft wrist shot and he wasn't even facing the net when he shot it. He literally just blindly threw the puck at the net and Helly missed it.

Goals can be bad, nev.

Oh it was a bad goal, I agree. I’m just saying that Helly was screened a bit, so there’s some explanation for why it went in. It was a better goal than Wheeler’s goal for example, but it’s basically just polishing a turd.

 

[silverfish]

Oh it was a bad goal, I agree. I’m just saying that Helly was screened a bit, so there’s some explanation for why it went in. It was a better goal than Wheeler’s goal for example, but it’s basically just polishing a turd.

Compare something Wheeler did to something Greenway did again, I dare you

 

[Mac n Gs]

Compare something Wheeler did to something Greenway did again, I dare you

I also just realized that they’re each 1-1 through 3. Greenway is a +2 and Wheeler is a -3. Guess I know who’s playing better!!! /s

 

[silverfish]

I also just realized that they’re each 1-1 through 3. Greenway is a +2 and Wheeler is a -3. Guess I know who’s playing better!!! /s