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Prospect Info: The 2026 NHL Draft First Round Thread - Part 5

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MS said:
Literally every single draft pick that's ever made will have character and culture fit taken into consideration. This is just a new extension of that.

And it's a big deal. A *substantial* percentage of star-level American players drafted to Canadian teams are just doing what Quinn Hughes did - get through 5-6 years and then leverage their way the hell out of town. You absolutely have to factor this into the value proposition - if Chase Reid is a 9/10 player who forces his way out of town in 5-6 years and Carson Carels is an 8/10 player who is a rock for your team for 12-15 years ... that's a pretty easy decision which one to take.

It sucks that this has to be a consideration, but it absolutely does have to be a consideration.




I've said this a few times over the last few years, but 'good scouting' is just Keep it Simple Stupid and don't do dumb shit. Don't think you're smarter than you are. Don't go to drafts trying to dazzle with brilliance. Get the right players in the right tiers and then when you're up to pick, pick the player from the highest tier whose value proposition best fits your organization. Where teams go wrong is when they think they're going to outsmart everyone or fall in love with a guy and lose perspective on what tier he should actually be in.

I have Chase Reid as the best D in this draft. But it's also *BARELY* so. And if I have him, like 2% ahead of Carels but history is telling us that there's probably a 20-30% chance (at least) that his commitment to this organization will be an issue ... this, again, makes things a pretty easy decision.
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Plus, us being in the beginning of the rebuild should be a huge consideration here. We still need to rebuild our entire forward core. We are very unlikely to be competitive during Reid’s ELC and part of the next contract. In the best of times, the players drafted at the beginning of a rebuild may want out. What are the odds Reid wants out in a few years if the team is still bad. If we were 2-3 years further along in the rebuild I might take that chance because you have a reasonable chance of contending under his team control.

We need our next core to be built around players that want to play here.
 
MS said:
Literally every single draft pick that's ever made will have character and culture fit taken into consideration. This is just a new extension of that.

And it's a big deal. A *substantial* percentage of star-level American players drafted to Canadian teams are just doing what Quinn Hughes did - get through 5-6 years and then leverage their way the hell out of town. You absolutely have to factor this into the value proposition - if Chase Reid is a 9/10 player who forces his way out of town in 5-6 years and Carson Carels is an 8/10 player who is a rock for your team for 12-15 years ... that's a pretty easy decision which one to take.

It sucks that this has to be a consideration, but it absolutely does have to be a consideration.




I've said this a few times over the last few years, but 'good scouting' is just Keep it Simple Stupid and don't do dumb shit. Don't think you're smarter than you are. Don't go to drafts trying to dazzle with brilliance. Get the right players in the right tiers and then when you're up to pick, pick the player from the highest tier whose value proposition best fits your organization. Where teams go wrong is when they think they're going to outsmart everyone or fall in love with a guy and lose perspective on what tier he should actually be in.

I have Chase Reid as the best D in this draft. But it's also *BARELY* so. And if I have him, like 2% ahead of Carels but history is telling us that there's probably a 20-30% chance (at least) that his commitment to this organization will be an issue ... this, again, makes things a pretty easy decision.
Click to expand...

Ryan Kesler my favourite player in that “core”
Quin Hughes my favourite Canuck player all time (at the time of course) all these guys broke my heart. They left when things go tough. I really have nothing against chase Reid, but for me it’s the American factor that kicks in. Cutter gauthier just left the team that drafted him.
Chase Reid will be a UFA in 2035. He will be 27 on July 1 2035. Do we really think chase reid is gonna stay a Canuck ? Just grab the next available.

Heck my hunch was always Carels is better than him. Said this before. Let’s just grab him instead.
 
Rowlet said:
A lot of my concerns with Reid have been eased watching him interview. He interviews well and seems genuine enough regarding flight risk stuff. If he was firmly not interested, he wouldn't be doing Donnie & Dhali or anything like that.
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I think one under discussed aspect of the whole flight risk stuff is how much the COVID year specifically played into it and amplified it. The Canadian Division and having effectively a full year where they were stuck in Canada and couldn't easily go home / visit with friends + family caused issues to surface that would otherwise have never come up. In a normal year half the season they're on the road and the vast majority of that time is spent in the US so it's much easier for them to avoid feeling like they're "trapped" in Canada.

I think several prominent US players took the border restrictions really hard and moving to the states suddenly became a lot bigger QoL increase for them because they didn't want to deal with that again.

Barring another global pandemic, we shouldn't really have to worry about something like this happening again and pushing more US players to force their way back home.

I think I still lean away from taking US players if all else is equal, but I'm warming up to the idea of taking Reid if our scouts are convinced he's a clearly better prospect than Carels.
 
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AquiliniHurtsMySoul said:
Just gotta laugh that in a year where we have the 3rd pick, the top 2 picks are slam dunks, and our choice is between our coach's son or an American defenceman who follows Trump on Instagram. Lol
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the top 2 picks are not slam dunks though..... already mentioned. he has 4 teams out of 9 have Malhotra at 2, and one other team have him at 1. Also Carels average rating is higher than Chase Reids. So nothing is a slam dunk. seems like there's a tier 2 is actually 4 players. However that's just via a 9 team survey. 21 other teams didn't make a submission.
 
lawrence said:
the top 2 picks are not slam dunks though..... already mentioned. he has 4 teams out of 9 have Malhotra at 2, and one other team have him at 1. Also Carels average rating is higher than Chase Reids. So nothing is a slam dunk. seems like there's a tier 2 is actually 4 players. However that's just via a 9 team survey. 21 other teams didn't make a submission.
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It's probably all of the bottom teams anyway. I don't think they are polling Vegas and Carolina to see who they would draft in the top 10.
 
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It's gonna be one of Stenberg or Malhotra. Reid won't be there at 3. Don't think they are considering carels as they didn't take him out to dinner lol.
 
Interestingly one week out here are the odds. Time to put your money where your mouth is! These are the odds of each player being selected at each position. I listed the most favored player in each spot.

2) Stenberg -145
3) Malhotra -290
4) Reid -115
5) Smits +170
6) Bjorck -125
 
MS said:
Literally every single draft pick that's ever made will have character and culture fit taken into consideration. This is just a new extension of that.
Click to expand...
We don’t know if he actually has any really character issues. That’s almost entirely speculation based on him being American, and apparently, a republican. But sure, no disagreement that they should assess that.

MS said:
And it's a big deal. A *substantial* percentage of star-level American players drafted to Canadian teams are just doing what Quinn Hughes did - get through 5-6 years and then leverage their way the hell out of town. You absolutely have to factor this into the value proposition - if Chase Reid is a 9/10 player who forces his way out of town in 5-6 years and Carson Carels is an 8/10 player who is a rock for your team for 12-15 years ... that's a pretty easy decision which one to take.
Click to expand...
I’m not disagreeing with weighing that. My point is that not picking him because he’s American may blow up in our face. Or not. But if you pick the player you think is the best and it doesn’t work out, then sure, that’s happens. But if you don’t pick him based on his nationality and perceived flight risk, and he hits and your guy doesn’t, then that’s going to sting. And even if he doesn’t want to stay, you’ve still got an extremely valuable asset.
MS said:
It sucks that this has to be a consideration, but it absolutely does have to be a consideration.
Click to expand...
I don’t disagree with you here. It just could be a disastrous outcome if you pick the worse player based on a risk that is so undefinable and unknown. And drafting at third overall isn’t some slam dunk. When you look at outcomes of picks this range they very significantly, and I don’t really like the idea of lowering the probability of our hit rate here because of an unknown and undefinable risk.

MS said:
I've said this a few times over the last few years, but 'good scouting' is just Keep it Simple Stupid and don't do dumb shit. Don't think you're smarter than you are. Don't go to drafts trying to dazzle with brilliance. Get the right players in the right tiers and then when you're up to pick, pick the player from the highest tier whose value proposition best fits your organization. Where teams go wrong is when they think they're going to outsmart everyone or fall in love with a guy and lose perspective on what tier he should actually be in.
Click to expand...
Not sure I totally agree, but I agree with lots of this. But I still doubt that NHL scouting teams actually see players in the kind of equal tiered approach you are suggesting. Because we know, there aren’t actually equal tiers. It’s only a perception, or an idea that they are equal because we can’t discern the difference that will ultimately result in their very different outcomes. I don’t think NHL scouts think that way, and I think that’s the case because they sieves thousands of hours actually watching these players play.

MS said:
I have Chase Reid as the best D in this draft. But it's also *BARELY* so. And if I have him, like 2% ahead of Carels but history is telling us that there's probably a 20-30% chance (at least) that his commitment to this organization will be an issue ... this, again, makes things a pretty easy decision.
Click to expand...
It’s hard to quantify these kinds of things, and giving a percentage is too simplistic. One player may be boom or bust, the other a high floor. But again, I don’t really like lowering our chances of getting a high end player at 3rd overall.
 
Baby Buium said:
Interestingly one week out here are the odds. Time to put your money where your mouth is! These are the odds of each player being selected at each position. I listed the most favored player in each spot.

2) Stenberg -145
3) Malhotra -290
4) Reid -115
5) Smits +170
6) Bjorck -125
Click to expand...
Speaking of which. The betting odds on bet365 have recently shifted from Reid to stenberg for pick 2
 
www.usatoday.com

2026 NHL scouting combine results: How McKenna, other prospects fared

Here's a list of the top 10 performers from each test that took place at the 2026 NHL scouting combine.
www.usatoday.com www.usatoday.com

Morozov killed the combine dude is a beast.

Edit: Thought I would some add context. Morozov had an overall score of 182.5, which was the fifth-best score in NHL combine history. And was top 10 in six different categories.
 
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Baby Buium said:
Its a foregone conclusion Sharks are taking him. I'd have to agree.
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Shares have picked up Kesselring for a swap of picks; and I imagine will add a veteran d-man or two on July 1st. They're trying to insulate Chase Reid who just seem automatic to the Sharks for me.

Apparently he's headed to the NCAA next season, but wouldn't shock me if the Sharks try to sign him to his ELC and get him into the NHL as early as next season.

Somehow I just can't see them picking another forward in this draft--with all the top players so closely bunched.
 
If I was an American kid hoping to get drafted by SJ or CHI instead, I’m not doing interviews in Canada.
 
VanJack said:
Shares have picked up Kesselring for a swap of picks; and I imagine will add a veteran d-man or two on July 1st. They're trying to insulate Chase Reid who just seem automatic to the Sharks for me.

Apparently he's headed to the NCAA next season, but wouldn't shock me if the Sharks try to sign him to his ELC and get him into the NHL as early as next season.

Somehow I just can't see them picking another forward in this draft--with all the top players so closely bunched.
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They can sign pro contracts and remain in college.
 
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