Prospect Info: The 2026 NHL Draft First Round Thread - Part 4

[bossram]

I think Staal is the wrong type of comp for Malhotra anyway (I know you didn’t make it) because of how much Staal’s game is primarily as a defensive C with some offensive upside, whereas for Malhotra i think the ratios are flipped (he’s an offensive C with some good defensive traits).

The better comp for me - assuming Caleb hits his ceiling - is Mark Scheifele. Both have a very similar D-1 and Draft year path to the NHL, both were lauded as high character, hard working Centres with good skill that were on steep upward trajectories, and both had the desirable combination of projectable NHL size/frames (Scheifele being 6’3, Caleb 6’2) with responsible high details games. Scheifele was even regarded as needing to continue to improve his skating (which he obviously did), exactly the same as Malhotra.

So while no NHL comp is going to be perfect or exactly identical, I feel like this one hits more commonalities than Jordan Staal or even Nick Suzuki (who gets used a lot but a 5’11 has to play a different game that a 6’2 player will).

Scheifele isn't good defensively though. I'd lean moreso that he's deficient in that area. Caleb is supposed to be a defensive details guy. He's also got more pop in his skating than Caleb (right now anyway). Plays more up-tempo.

Stylistically I like the Suzuki comp with respect to defense, playmaking, and pace. I get the size difference, but Suzuki despite being shorter is kinda "rangy" with his stick.

 

[pitseleh]

The better comp for me - assuming Caleb hits his ceiling - is Mark Scheifele. Both have a very similar D-1 and Draft year path to the NHL, both were lauded as high character, hard working Centres with good skill that were on steep upward trajectories, and both had the desirable combination of projectable NHL size/frames (Scheifele being 6’3, Caleb 6’2) with responsible high details games. Scheifele was even regarded as needing to continue to improve his skating (which he obviously did), exactly the same as Malhotra.

So while no NHL comp is going to be perfect or exactly identical, I feel like this one hits more commonalities than Jordan Staal or even Nick Suzuki (who gets used a lot but a 5’11 has to play a different game that a 6’2 player will).

Scheifele is an interesting one because he was a pretty off the board pick at the time. From what I can google, he was the 16th ranked NA skater according to Central Scouting and 41st ranked player by THN.

He’d presumably go top-5 in a re-draft but he’s also an extreme result. He’s a good upside case but I haven’t seen a good comp for a median or 80th percentile outcome for Malhotra.

 

[BWJM]

What the hell is wrong with this organization. If they had such a raging hard-on about drafting Caleb Malhotra you don’t name his dad the head coach.

Common sense. Fire Todd Harvey.

 

[beachcomber]

If the Rucks are there at 24, you grab 'em. Trade up on your 33rd pick if you have to.

It would be a feel good story and I think you have better than even odds that they become your 2nd line. Good value for money.

Ya, a "feel good" story is what wins in the NHL. Maybe put Hoggy on the line for some size. What is the fascination with these guys?

 

[beachcomber]

Whether someone is MAGA is a crucial factor when deciding to invest millions in them over a decade. Look at what just happened with the NY Giants.

They got a franchise quarterback who happens to support the current president that over half the country voted for? Who cares about his views? Just win baby!!

 

[CanaFan]

Scheifele is an interesting one because he was a pretty off the board pick at the time. From what I can google, he was the 16th ranked NA skater according to Central Scouting and 41st ranked player by THN.

He’d presumably go top-5 in a re-draft but he’s also an extreme result. He’s a good upside case but I haven’t seen a good comp for a median or 80th percentile outcome for Malhotra.

Bob Mackenzie’s final ranking had him 12th so he was higher on NHL lists than on CSS. So a slight stretch but honestly 5 spots is pretty minor as far as these things go. Couturier was universally rated to go top 4 and fell “way” down to 8, but that’s how drafts go. Every year people get wedded to “consensus” lists and every year they act like it’s the most shocking thing when NHL teams don’t pay any attention to “consensus”.

You’re right that Scheifele is definitely Malhotra’s “best case” but I think that’s what most NHL comps are speaking to. I guess a mid option would be a 45-55 pt 2C with decent details but whose offence never pops to the degree you’re hoping for. Phillip Danault maybe?

 

[CanaFan]

Scheifele isn't good defensively though. I'd lean moreso that he's deficient in that area. Caleb is supposed to be a defensive details guy. He's also got more pop in his skating than Caleb (right now anyway). Plays more up-tempo.

Stylistically I like the Suzuki comp with respect to defense, playmaking, and pace. I get the size difference, but Suzuki despite being shorter is kinda "rangy" with his stick.

I guess but I think that’s how Scheifele has evolved, much like how Horvat was a details guy in junior then sort of lost it when he moved up to the NHL. I recall Scheifele being described as that type of player with Barrie, along with his so-so skating, so I still think at the same age they were quite similar.

The size thing matters because it allows players to be less “elusive” and use their size / frame to absorb contact (or initiate) which drastically changes how they play the game, create space, delay with the puck, etc. It’s not that Suzuki is a bad comp, I just think a 6’2 Malhotra is going to do a lot more of the same things that 6’3 Scheifele does than 5’11 Suzuki.

But mostly I just really disagree with the Jordan Staal one.

 

[CanaFan]

Wow!

This puts a different perspective on things. The Tape Measure Bros are panicking.

ooooh, jumped the gun on that one eh?

Must have felt really good for those 5-minutes or so.

 

[pitseleh]

Bob Mackenzie’s final ranking had him 12th so he was higher on NHL lists than on CSS. So a slight stretch but honestly 5 spots is pretty minor as far as these things go. Couturier was universally rated to go top 4 and fell “way” down to 8, but that’s how drafts go. Every year people get wedded to “consensus” lists and every year they act like it’s the most shocking thing when NHL teams don’t pay any attention to “consensus”.

I agree. My point was more that Scheifele was not as highly regarded as Malhotra at the time but obviously turned out extremely well. This is a weak draft but 2011 wasn’t great either.

You’re right that Scheifele is definitely Malhotra’s “best case” but I think that’s what most NHL comps are speaking to. I guess a mid option would be a 45-55 pt 2C with decent details but whose offence never pops to the degree you’re hoping for. Phillip Danault maybe?

Maybe people have different views on what comps are but to me Scheifele is a one in twenty (or higher) type outcome for Malhotra, seeing as he’s probably a one in twenty type outcome himself. A good comp for me is a reasonably likely, but good, outcome.

 

[pitseleh]

Not that it necessarily means much but Dhaliwal reiterates his report that the Canucks are having dinner with McKenna, Stenberg, Reid and Malhotra but adds that when he checked yesterday they had not requested to have dinner with Carels or Verhoeff.

 

[CanaFan]

I agree. My point was more that Scheifele was not as highly regarded as Malhotra at the time but obviously turned out extremely well. This is a weak draft but 2011 wasn’t great either.

Maybe people have different views on what comps are but to me Scheifele is a one in twenty (or higher) type outcome for Malhotra, seeing as he’s probably a one in twenty type outcome himself. A good comp for me is a reasonably likely, but good, outcome.

I don’t know how much the comp should be what’s “reasonably likely” vs what’s their “best case ceiling” with a touch of “stylistic similarity” thrown in.

I mean, Nick Suzuki is the one that gets thrown around a lot but he has 89 and 101 pt seasons by age 26 and who knows where he’s going to get to, as he continues to improve every year.

Mark Scheifele has this year’s career best 103-pts season but otherwise his scoring has typically been in the 70-80 point range, which doesn’t seem too outlandish for what Malhotra’s best case projections are.

So out of the two, I feel in some ways Suzuki feels the more “high end” outcome while Scheifele is actually the less ambitious one. But maybe that’s just how I’m looking at it.

 

[Lindgren]

Not that it necessarily means much but Dhaliwal reiterates his report that the Canucks are having dinner with McKenna, Stenberg, Reid and Malhotra but adds that when he checked yesterday they had not requested to have dinner with Carels or Verhoeff.

The interesting tidbit for me is that the AGM search is underway and that some agents have been interviewed. That's promising (at least indicating that they're not exclusively searching for yet another exec with the same former player/development profile).

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

No Carels is disappointing, but then again, this franchise hasn't been able to identify WHL talent in like 5 decades, why would it change now?

 

[StreetHawk]

So out of the two, I feel in some ways Suzuki feels the more “high end” outcome while Scheifele is actually the less ambitious one. But maybe that’s just how I’m looking at it.

How realistic is either production level for Caleb?

Whether it's pure points at 80 or PPG (with at least 60 games played or something), only so many players in the NHL hit those targets. PPG is just over 1 per team at like 35/36 this past year. Now, 0.94 is still very good as that is mid to high 70's. 80 point production was like 26 give or take this past year.

 

[pitseleh]

I don’t know how much the comp should be what’s “reasonably likely” vs what’s their “best case ceiling” with a touch of “stylistic similarity” thrown in.

I mean, Nick Suzuki is the one that gets thrown around a lot but he has 89 and 101 pt seasons by age 26 and who knows where he’s going to get to, as he continues to improve every year.

Mark Scheifele has this year’s career best 103-pts season but otherwise his scoring has typically been in the 70-80 point range, which doesn’t seem too outlandish for what Malhotra’s best case projections are.

So out of the two, I feel in some ways Suzuki feels the more “high end” outcome while Scheifele is actually the less ambitious one. But maybe that’s just how I’m looking at it.

Scheifele’s full season numbers are a bit misleading because he’s injured so often. He’s averaged 85 points per 82 games for the past decade and is 11th in the league in points over that span. I’m not sure Malhotra reasonably projects to reproduce that or is likely to come close.

 

[CanaFan]

How realistic is either production level for Caleb?

Whether it's pure points at 80 or PPG (with at least 60 games played or something), only so many players in the NHL hit those targets. PPG is just over 1 per team at like 35/36 this past year. Now, 0.94 is still very good as that is mid to high 70's. 80 point production was like 26 give or take this past year.

Sure, I’m assuming the reason he’s ranked as the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft suggests they think this is seen as a realistic best-case outcome?

 

[CanaFan]

Scheifele’s full season numbers are a bit misleading because he’s injured so often. He’s averaged 85 points per 82 games for the past decade and is 11th in the league in points over that span. I’m not sure Malhotra reasonably projects to reproduce that or is likely to come close.

Ok, hit me with your reasonable comp then.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

I don’t even need to look at previous posts to know that you’re on the Malhotra train, fickle bunch and willing to die on that hill rather than see reason that it’s a no draft zone after Manny was hired, now we need to look at Positional value and BPA and to not consider Reid is naive because of place of birth and views. You might not like him but he’s been the top rated Dman since the World juniors where he took over the #1 role for team USA and has been rated no lower than the top 3 since then. I love Carels and his game and I think he’s a stud but unfortunately he’s not a RHD and we already have Buium to fill that position going forward, Willander will be a great #3/4 but we need the game changing talent and Reid projects as that, not from my viewings but from the professional scouts across the world.

Chill man, whatever happens on draft day just hope you support the professionals and their decisions. I’m good with 5 different players but the top 3 is McKenna, Stenberg, Reid.

The thing is defenseman are harder to project though because the position is so demanding in the NHL.

I'd have Reid/Carels/Malhotra all in the same tier upside-wise as potential 1st line players but not 'franchise level' players. The idea its clearly this guy over that guy is wrong imo. I do prefer Malhotra cause he's the kind of C you win with, they are hard to acquire, and again because the D are generally harder to nail down with certainty what they'll be in the NHL. But you could make the case for any of them.

 

[Mike Pecarino]

ooooh, jumped the gun on that one eh?

Must have felt really good for those 5-minutes or so.

It was like eating a dozen frosted donuts then the sugar crash hitting hard. I had to lie down.

 

[Nick Lang]

I know you’re right but I feel we have that in spades with Raty, Karlsson, Sasson, et al today and potentially Cootes, Mueller, Patterson, et al in the prospect pool. Even Ohgren might ultimately top out at that level too. Plus every forward we draft outside of the 1st round will likely fit that same profile and add another bottom 6 prospect onto the pile. They are valuable roles (to a degree) but are not what you ideally want out of 1st round picks, especially at the start of a ground up rebuild.

It’s just disappointing to basically have one shot at a potential offensive profile and that’s it. It feels like in other drafts you could at least look at guys who had top 6 pathways but maybe had more flaws or longer projections to get there. Here it feels like Hermansson might be the only guy in that profile and even he’ll likely be gone by 24. At this point I’d probably roll the dice on a guy like Preston and hope for the best. I just don’t see the value in taking anyone that, at best projection, tops out as bottom a 6 checker, PKer, or energy/role player.

I think you're just looking at a regular draft here. You usually have top line players available in the top 10 but after that you're not really getting many top of the line players after that, certainly not many obvious ones that you can pick from in the 12-30 range. Look at Lekkerimaki and Cootes. Pretty similar to the outcomes we're looking at this year.

I have to disagree on your very last claim. Folks have started to get pretty adamant that only top line players are worth drafting and everyone else is widely available by trade or ufa so we should only be drafting for elite top line skill sets. If only it were that easy.

I don't think I believe that as we've seen these elite players often just don't exist past 12 in the draft. So what does that mean, trade every pick past 10, forfeit the picks, only take the longest of shots? I don't think so. Players are more than just data or statistics, they are human beings, and a lot of times, those personalities are what bonds the team and makes them a winner.

These are opportunities to take the glue guys that hold your team together, build your identity (which we always seem to lack) and provide the substance of what your team is about. I think this is an excellent opportunity to build your foundation and middle 6 with good character backed up with skill.

Even if you can find equivalent statistical comparison's it's far better to have these players for free on cheap contracts, and under team control. You also have them buying into the city and team for years where you build the mentality of going to war with each other. This is far better than chasing after mercenaries year after year. It also lets you focus on building or adding the final touches elsewhere without yet another unfulfilled UFA off-season. Only so many moves can be made and there is steep competition. These players are not as easy to get as people make it out to be ... imo.

Now this brings me to Dagenais lol. I'm probably going to look dummy in the end but he's a guy I like here as I think he fits a lot of what we should be looking for and have neglected in the past. Speed, toughness, size, really good playmaking and IQ, and some clutch goal scoring prowess. Even if he ends up on the wing. Seems like a hard-working kid and great teammate. Go for the double instead of the homerun.

@thecupismine - I see Dagenais is 18 on Cam's scout list so he's holding strong even though I know you're not a fan. I also think Morozov would be absolutely awesome. What he's doing as the youngest player in Miami is impressive. High ceiling but also super high floor and all the intangibles. My favorite! Plus he's a big center. I'd probably be running to the podium. My list (so far) at our #24 pick.

Morozov
Command
Klepov
Bleyl
Hermansson
Dagenais
Hemming
Piiparinen
Ignatavicius
Mutryn
Shcherbakov
Hextall
Macbeath
Shilov
Suvanto

I'm just gunning for a player here. I should probably have Hemming higher but I just don't get the vibes from him and he tailed off a lot. Also, I see Rogowski always rated high but I don't like him at all. He's a transformed baseball player with no grit. 6'7" pilon. People just love his size but you gotta be able to hockey too.

Carels has a higer PPG, and Vheroffs 0.56 as a 17 year old in the N
But I am surprised Verhoeff is at number 8. future top pairing dman that can play offence. Why not.

Do you do any reading here at all? Seems like you're always posting stuff that is answered thoroughly before. Certainly you should have noticed all the posts indicating why not. You know, mostly skating, hockey IQ, and a season that asked more questions then it answered.

 

[Mike Pecarino]

Maybe a fair realistic impact projection but his ceiling is definitely higher. Outside shot he hits a Toews/Suzuki ceiling.

Realistically his ceiling is somewhere around Linden/Jordan Staal.

 

[pitseleh]

Ok, hit me with your reasonable comp then.

The best one I’ve been able to come up with is Matt Duchene. Similar scoring profile pre-draft, solid two-way player but more offensive than defensive in profile, more a playmaker than a goal scorer. It’s not perfect but checks more boxes than the others I’ve seen.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Reid is basically the hardest player to acquire in the league and Makar wasn’t Makar before the draft and going 4th overall, Reid has all those tools in his game to become a top 3 RHD in the entire league, maybe even the best. I don’t see Stenberg, Malhotra, Carels, Bjorck having that upside or tools to surpass that. I hope he interviewed well and wowed the Canucks brass, if the two wingers are gone he’s my choice, especially with Manny getting hired and Caleb being off limits in my opinion for the betterment of the team.

I don't see it. That's not the style of player Reid is.

Reid is more of a traditional OFD along the lines of a John Carlson or Evan Bouchard, big shot & can jump into the play but plays a 2-way game. Not the new era OFD like Makar/Hughes/Hutson who controls the game with puck possession/skating in all areas & are always looking to push the play themselves.

 

[ginner classic]

No Carels is disappointing, but then again, this franchise hasn't been able to identify WHL talent in like 5 decades, why would it change now?

I would like them to take a meeting with Bjorck as well. In fact, I would hope they were spending time with all of the top 10. Primarily because I hope they make an attempt to get the Winnipeg, Florida or Nashville picks.

 

[ginner classic]

Is a fair ceiling for Malhotra - Trevor Linden - Jordan Staal… ish?

He honestly skates like Linden. Swoops. Also reminds me of PLD at center.