The 2025 draft lottery Tank Wars - The Final stretch

[Matty Sundin]

The wild card, division titles and playoff placement/seeding isn’t the only race and prize going….Draft lottery odds now for the bottom 11…

1	San Jose Sharks	19-42-9	.336	25.5%
2	Chicago Blackhawks	21-41-9	.359	13.5%
3	Nashville Predators	26-36-8	.429	11.5%
4	Buffalo Sabres	28-35-6	.449	9.5%
5	Philadelphia Flyers	28-35-9	.451	8.5%
6	Seattle Kraken	30-36-5	.458	7.5%
7	Pittsburgh Penguins	29-32-11	.479	6.5%
8	Boston Bruins	30-33-9	.479	6.0%
9	Anaheim Ducks	30-32-8	.486	5.0%
10	Detroit Red Wings	32-31-6	.507	3.5%
11	Columbus Blue Jackets	31-29-9	.514	3.0%

Teams out of the playoffs still battling but could still enter the tank wars for a small chance to win

New York Rangers - 5.1 Percent chance to win 2nd overall - .521 pts percentage

New York Islanders - 4.2 percent chance to win 3rd overall - .529 pts percentage

Utah HC - 1.5 percent chance to win 4th overall - .536 pts percentage

Vancouver Canucks - 0.5 percent chance to to win 5th overall - .543 pts percentage

Calgary Flames - 0.5 percent chance to win 6th overall - .558 pts percentage


The reigning champs San Jose Sharks continue their dominance of the tank wars with only the 2023 Tank wars champion Blackhawks within reach. The Blackhawks also have a game in hand to not gain any accident points over the Sharks.

Meanwhile the Predators and Sabres are battling for the 3rd best odds to win with the Flyers 5pts up but going on a 1-8-1 tank roll to catch down in the final stretch ties with the Kracken with a game in hand for no accidental pts.

The Jackets with their dwindling playoffs hope could begin to look backwards and start dropping down to 7th best odds(6.5 percent chance to win lottery) which is currently being held by their former playoff rival the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Let the final stretch of the Tank wars begin

 

[x Tame Impala]

Probably just saying this because my Hawks have been in the gutter for years now but these draft odds are pretty low. It could also be my poor understanding of statistical analysis and odds (would honestly love a professional/educated correction if anyone has one) but I feel they give way too many % points to teams outside of the top 5.

Nonetheless as a Hawks fan and I'm sure Sharks fans feel the same way, we're looking at things now in terms of having a guaranteed top 4 pick (Sharks top 3). That's really the best you can hope for because even finishing last your odds aren't that great.

The Sharks are grabbing one of Misa or Schaefer which is likely a fantastic add for them.

 

[Khelandros]

Can't remember the exact rule, but I would like to see top 10 protection on picks be based on the teams standings and not the lottery results. Introduce some absolute chaos, decide if you are keeping the pick or deferring before the balls are dropped.

 

[zizbuka]

So, if the Sharks win the lottery this year, they can't win next year? Is that the rule? They might wanna hope to skip a year........

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So, if the Sharks win the lottery this year, they can't win next year? Is that the rule? They might wanna hope to skip a year........

Nope. The only team that can win the lottery and not win for a period of time is Chicago.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

It’s odd seeing names like

Penguins and bruins in these parts

I feel like
Sabres and preds is more depressing, as I think both teams expected to be in a playoff race

 

[SEALBound]

Penguins saw fit to start winning games so...yeah that sucks.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

It’s odd seeing names like

Penguins and bruins in these parts

I feel like
Sabres and preds is more depressing, as I think both teams expected to be in a playoff race

It’s definitely weird seeing the Bruins there. It’s definitely depressing to see the Sabres there (again).

 

[Brookbank]

Van should do a strategic one year tank and park EP40, Hughs and Demko and D Petey. But they won't

 

[Brookbank]

It’s odd seeing names like

Penguins and bruins in these parts

I feel like
Sabres and preds is more depressing, as I think both teams expected to be in a playoff race

The Pens will win either Mkenna or Dupont. Some teams are born into good fortune and it never changes. This is why Bedard went to Chicago.

You'd think all of this is random. But it isn't.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is where my idea of not being able to draft in the top 3 two years in a row would get very interesting, with McKenna on deck next year.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Tankathon | 2025 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

2025 NHL Draft order tracker updated after every game. NHL lottery simulator to determine the top overall pick. View traded picks and playoff matchups.

www.tankathon.com

 

[BoHorvat 53]

It’s odd seeing names like

Penguins and bruins in these parts

I feel like
Sabres and preds is more depressing, as I think both teams expected to be in a playoff race

Bruins are probably going to only be there for this season, the moves they made at this deadline were so shrewd, they reaped the benefits the most of this year's deadline being the best seller's market in recent history

 

[Brodeur]

The Pens will win either Mkenna or Dupont. Some teams are born into good fortune and it never changes. This is why Bedard went to Chicago.

You'd think all of this is random. But it isn't.

Could have sworn that Chicago got bumped to #3 in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft year. Trying to find a pattern out of a relatively small sample size of lotteries isn't the most logical path. We can easily preemptively make a conspiracy theory for every team, so no matter who wins there'd be somebody who'd say "See I told you so."

I wish I could find this old post on the NBA board. Poster had a long tirade about how the NBA lottery had to be rigged because Minnesota hadn't won in 20+ years. He posted some math as his "proof" while not acknowledging the faulty premise that a previous result had any bearing on the current draw. And then over the new few years Minnesota won twice.

 

[Mattb124]

So, if the Sharks win the lottery this year, they can't win next year? Is that the rule? They might wanna hope to skip a year........

The Sharks didn’t move up in the draft order last year, so from what I have read them drafting 1st last year doesn’t technically count as a lottery win. Can someone with more knowledge on this pls confirm?

 

[rahad]

So, if the Sharks win the lottery this year, they can't win next year? Is that the rule? They might wanna hope to skip a year........

Sharks did not win the Celebrini lottery. They finished last. Like the Habs with Slaf in 2022. Only team is Chicago (with Bedard in 2023).

 

[qcal1427]

Could have sworn that Chicago got bumped to #3 in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft year. Trying to find a pattern out of a relatively small sample size of lotteries isn't the most logical path. We can easily preemptively make a conspiracy theory for every team, so no matter who wins there'd be somebody who'd say "See I told you so."

I wish I could find this old post on the NBA board. Poster had a long tirade about how the NBA lottery had to be rigged because Minnesota hadn't won in 20+ years. He posted some math as his "proof" while not acknowledging the faulty premise that a previous result had any bearing on the current draw. And then over the new few years Minnesota won twice.

Not a conspiracy theory, just a law of the universe. Chicago and especially Pittsburgh will get the best lottery luck you've ever seen. It's exactly why Pittsburgh won't win this year and will instead win next year when there's a true #1 talent in McKenna at the top

 

[pvr]

Could have sworn that Chicago got bumped to #3 in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft year. Trying to find a pattern out of a relatively small sample size of lotteries isn't the most logical path. We can easily preemptively make a conspiracy theory for every team, so no matter who wins there'd be somebody who'd say "See I told you so."

I wish I could find this old post on the NBA board. Poster had a long tirade about how the NBA lottery had to be rigged because Minnesota hadn't won in 20+ years. He posted some math as his "proof" while not acknowledging the faulty premise that a previous result had any bearing on the current draw. And then over the new few years Minnesota won twice.

Yes…Hawks dropped from 2 to 3, lost out on Malkin, and instead was able to draft the great Cam Barker.

 

[lawrence]

Van should do a strategic one year tank and park EP40, Hughs and Demko and D Petey. But they won't

This year, the team finally gets to call the shots on their future. But next year? If stuff doesn’t pan out, management might just pull the plug early. Honestly, they at least owe the guys a say in how this plays out—though losing Petey definitely throws a wrench in things.