Prospect Info: The 2024-2025 Prospect Thread: Part 1: Skate or Die!

[cc]

Not to completely explain alriksson's lack of production but prior to his last 6 games or so, he was on the third line with grinders with limited ice time.

From the select games I've watched, he would set up players only to have them not convert or lose the puck on the cycle. It was actually mentioned on the last Guelph broadcast so I wasn't the only one who noticed.

He's now playing on the top line and the plays he's making are turning into points. He looks pretty good so far but mostly as a complimentary set up guy. It looks like he wants to score but he's far from a natural goal scorer.

If he can stay on the top line, I think he'll get at least a point per game. The biased broadcasters mentioned it was probably the best line in the OHL right now right before that line got shut out last game.

All that being said, I think his upside is at best a Jordan Greenway type of player. He wont be a top six level point producer but there are some intangibles there that can add some value to a team on a bottom six role.

I've only watched a handful of games of his and I'm not a scout, but I've tried to focus on his game very closely. I find he's an interesting player to follow development-wise because there seems to be something there.

 

[VanJack]

All I see is that the beatings will continue until his ppg improves.
wheres the fun in that

and Why is Patterson not receiving the same treatment?

For context, Dakota Joshua was a fifth round pick of the Leafs, 128th overall, in the 2014 draft. And he averaged 25 points a season at that NCAA juggernaut, Ohio State University. And his first year in pro hockey--split between the ECHL and AHL-- he had 18 points in 50 games.

When following a team's prospects' 'optimism' is far more interesting than 'cynicism'. I mean sometimes it does 'happen;.....just sayin'.

 

[ChilliBilly]

OP was responding to a poster saying that Alriksson was likely to play in the NHL next season.

I haven't seen anyone say they think he will in the NHL next season. I said something like I expect Alriksson to play in the AHL next year, and there's a good chance he will get a cup of coffee in the NHL next season. It will depend on his play in Abby. The team may decide it's better for him to go back to Guelph next year in which case this is all academic.

 

[MS]

We are all here to hope

Of course. Everyone is here hoping for the best and cheering for these guys to succeed. But you can still do that while understanding the odds and the reality of the situation.

Like, hit rates for 3rd round picks :

2015 6/30 guys have had some sort of NHL career (~200 GP, 2 full seasons on an NHL roster) 3/30 are a top-6/top-4/#1 type asset that actually carries value.

2016 4/30 NHLers. 1/30 top-6/top-4

2017 6/31 NHLers. 3/31 top-6/top-4

2018 5/31 NHLers. 1/31 top-6/top-4

2019 3/31 NHLers. 2/31 top-6/top-4

Over a 5-year stretch the hit rate to get any sort of NHL asset from a 3rd round pick is 15%. The chances of getting an actual valuable contributing asset are 6%.

And I'm being generous here and calling Stuart Skinner a #1 goalie and Pavel Dorofeyev and Aleksei Protas top-6 guys based on very small sample sizes this year. And a guy like Mackenzie Entwhistle an 'NHL player'.

 

[Blue and Green]

For context, Dakota Joshua was a fifth round pick of the Leafs, 128th overall, in the 2014 draft. And he averaged 25 points a season at that NCAA juggernaut, Ohio State University. And his first year in pro hockey--split between the ECHL and AHL-- he had 18 points in 50 games.

When following a team's prospects' 'optimism' is far more interesting than 'cynicism'. I mean sometimes it does 'happen;.....just sayin'.

Optimistic takes on prospects might be more interesting but the relatively pessimistic ones are significantly more accurate on the whole. Just sayin'.

 

[Ernie]

Of course. Everyone is here hoping for the best and cheering for these guys to succeed. But you can still do that while understanding the odds and the reality of the situation.

Like, hit rates for 3rd round picks :

2015 6/30 guys have had some sort of NHL career (~200 GP, 2 full seasons on an NHL roster) 3/30 are a top-6/top-4/#1 type asset that actually carries value.

2016 4/30 NHLers. 1/30 top-6/top-4

2017 6/31 NHLers. 3/31 top-6/top-4

2018 5/31 NHLers. 1/31 top-6/top-4

2019 3/31 NHLers. 2/31 top-6/top-4

Over a 5-year stretch the hit rate to get any sort of NHL asset from a 3rd round pick is 15%. The chances of getting an actual valuable contributing asset are 6%.

And I'm being generous here and calling Stuart Skinner a #1 goalie and Pavel Dorofeyev and Aleksei Protas top-6 guys based on very small sample sizes this year. And a guy like Mackenzie Entwhistle an 'NHL player'.

This is the one thing that most fans just don't understand.

This is a useful post for people to understand draft pick value from the former Coyotes analytics director: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

But can be summed up in this one image:

Basically, a 10th overall pick has about half the value of a 1st overall pick. A 20th overall pick has about half the value of a 10th overall pick (and a quarter of a 1st overall pick). A 30th overall pick has half the value of a 20th overall pick (and 1/8th the value of a 1st overall pick).

By the time you get to the 3rd round, picks have basically no value. If you're a contender and you can upgrade your roster even in a minuscule way with a 3rd round + pick, you do it in a heartbeat.

 

[VanJack]

Optimistic takes on prospects might be more interesting but the relatively pessimistic ones are significantly more accurate on the whole. Just sayin'.

I agree that in rounds 3-7 only a handful of guys ever play in one NHL game. So most will fall short.

But every once and awhile some late-round flyer comes out of nowhere. And a kid like Arliksson at 6'6" and 234, who can skate like he can, already has a 'leg-up' in the optimism department.

But a lot of kids go to the AHL where their career stalls. So with Arliksson, the proof will be what happens when he hits Abbotsford next March.

 

[MS]

This is the one thing that most fans just don't understand.

This is a useful post for people to understand draft pick value from the former Coyotes analytics director: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

But can be summed up in this one image: View attachment 932333

Basically, a 10th overall pick has about half the value of a 1st overall pick. A 20th overall pick has about half the value of a 10th overall pick (and a quarter of a 1st overall pick). A 30th overall pick has half the value of a 20th overall pick (and 1/8th the value of a 1st overall pick).

By the time you get to the 3rd round, picks have basically no value. If you're a contender and you can upgrade your roster even in a minuscule way with a 3rd round + pick, you do it in a heartbeat.

Yeah, I've mentioned similar stuff before - a top-5 pick, to me, is worth 3-4 picks in the 25-30 range. But fans talk about '1st rounders' like they're all the same and Jim Benning was treated like he was a genius by a segment of the fanbase because he (sometimes) got better players at #5 overall than Mike Gillis got at #29 overall.

Rounds 2-3 are fighting the odds from the start. Rounds 5-7 are basically worthless. I'd trade every pick in the late rounds for whatever I could get.

 

[RobertKron]

This is the one thing that most fans just don't understand.

This is a useful post for people to understand draft pick value from the former Coyotes analytics director: https://puckpedia.com/PerriPickValue

But can be summed up in this one image: View attachment 932333

Basically, a 10th overall pick has about half the value of a 1st overall pick. A 20th overall pick has about half the value of a 10th overall pick (and a quarter of a 1st overall pick). A 30th overall pick has half the value of a 20th overall pick (and 1/8th the value of a 1st overall pick).

By the time you get to the 3rd round, picks have basically no value. If you're a contender and you can upgrade your roster even in a minuscule way with a 3rd round + pick, you do it in a heartbeat.

I don't get how folks don't tend to understand this. Like, there are X number of total NHL jobs. Given that we can all think of X-minus-not-many players who have and will continue to have multi-year NHL careers, that means that very few picks at any given moment will go on to have a significant NHL career.

 

[Ernie]

Rounds 2-3 are fighting the odds from the start. Rounds 5-7 are basically worthless. I'd trade every pick in the late rounds for whatever I could get.

Yep, you're better off plucking players from the waiver wire, signing un-drafted college players etc. At least you're potentially getting a player that is closer to contributing. Teams also tend to sign their late round draft picks when they really shouldn't and waste a contract slot.