Prospect Info: The 2024-2025 Prospect Thread: Part 1: Skate or Die!

[BWJM]

So Lekkerimaki is the real deal right

 

[arttk]

So Lekkerimaki is the real deal right

Always been

 

[1440]

Good for him for getting in some pre season games. Swedish jr to SHL is a big step. Hopefully if he doesn't make the SHL team that he goes back to junior and works on rounding out his game a lot more.

Fernstrom played 9 SHL games last year, and despite not putting up any points, was actually pretty good. I wouldn't think it a stretch at all for him to be a full time SHL player this season.

 

[ManVanFan]

After the first two games of the Young Stars tournament, hopefully management can see that giving away 1st and 2nd rounders every year is not good for the team long term. The quality to help the current core in the future is very thin.

 

[ManVanFan]

Fernstrom played 9 SHL games last year, and despite not putting up any points, was actually pretty good. I wouldn't think it a stretch at all for him to be a full time SHL player this season.

Of course depending on what kind of summer Obero had. Need to replace Lekkerimaki and whether or not they will be any good. Fernstrom could be the 13th forward and get the random bump like Forsell has for years and plays irregularly and anywhere from 2-10 minutes per game.

Forsell at 21 years old now looks like he's getting a solid 12 minutes a game. Seems to have stalled as a prospect as well because of it.

 

[Nick Lang]

I'm thinking that the Swedish coaches are a better judge of talent than the guys who write these top 50 or whatever lists.

Sandin-Pelikka is a far better prospect. To be honest Petterson was not very impressive in these last couple games. Obviously the writers didn't see very much there either. He's going to have to work on his game a lot to get to the NHL.

You can’t possibly know if he belongs in the top 100 unless you have a thorough understanding of every teams’ prospects which I don’t believe you do.
In any event as others have stated the lists aren’t all that important.

Exactly

 

[arttk]

Sandin-Pelikka is a far better prospect. To be honest Petterson was not very impressive in these last couple games. Obviously the writers didn't see very much there either. He's going to have to work on his game a lot to get to the NHL.



Exactly

Scouts look to the future and coaches care about now.

 

[Nick Lang]

Scouts look to the future and coaches care about now.

Absolutely, just like when Chiasson made the team in front of the great Gadjovich. Coaches aren’t fans, they will take every conceivable advantage, no matter how small to win games.

 

[strattonius]

Absolutely, just like when Chiasson made the team in front of the great Gadjovich. Coaches aren’t fans, they will take every conceivable advantage, no matter how small to win games.

It's not entirely true. There will be transparency between Alvin and Tocchet on the opportunities he wants to see with Lekkerimaki in training camp. But when it comes to icing the best roster, coaches almost always choose the better 2-way professional player - and that's usually a veteran.

It also depends on what stage of 'winning' your organization is in. In San Jose the mandate will be to allow as much leeway to Will Smith as possible to develope his game with the big club. In Vancouver we are seeking results and the reality will be that Lekkerimaki will have to develop his 2 way game before people can fetish him playing on the top line. Would Will Smith crack the Canucks roster this year? Probably not.

 

[Jerry the great]

Sandin-Pelikka is a far better prospect. To be honest Petterson was not very impressive in these last couple games. Obviously the writers didn't see very much there either. He's going to have to work on his game a lot to get to the NHL.

Sorry, just to confirm....you're saying that ASP is a far better prospect than EP2?

 

[credulous]

Sorry, just to confirm....you're saying that ASP is a far better prospect than EP2?

most commentators/writers rank asp ahead of willander let alone ep2

 

[MS]

Sorry, just to confirm....you're saying that ASP is a far better prospect than EP2?

ASP is a miles better prospect than EP2. It isn't close, and I've generally been one of the bigger EP2 cheerleaders on this board while liking ASP less than most.

 

[Vector]

EP2 is the exact kind of prospect I love and ASP is the kind I dislike and even I will easily say ASP is a much better prospect. That's not to say there isn't a world where EP2 ends up the better NHLer but it would go against all the information we currently have.

 

[Jerry the great]

ASP is a miles better prospect than EP2. It isn't close, and I've generally been one of the bigger EP2 cheerleaders on this board while liking ASP less than most.

in terms of what you have if they hit, absolutely. but likelihood of hitting is less clear IMO.

 

[MS]

in terms of what you have if they hit, absolutely. but likelihood of hitting is less clear IMO.

If they both get a 95th+ percentile result ASP will be an All-Star possibly approaching Adam Fox level and EP2 would be a Scott Mayfield or something like that.

The odds of ASP being a 2nd pairing skill guy are also substantially higher than EP2 being a 2nd pairing defensive guy.

Like I said in the other thread, EP2 is a similar-level/similar-type prospect to what Kaedan Korczak was 3 years ago and hopefully we see a similar progression.

 

[Jerry the great]

If they both get a 95th+ percentile result ASP will be an All-Star possibly approaching Adam Fox level and EP2 would be a Scott Mayfield or something like that.

The odds of ASP being a 2nd pairing skill guy are also substantially higher than EP2 being a 2nd pairing defensive guy.

Like I said in the other thread, EP2 is a similar-level/similar-type prospect to what Kaedan Korczak was 3 years ago and hopefully we see a similar progression.

If ASP hits his ceiling, maybe he's the second coming of cale makar; if he hits his floor instead, maybe he's adam boqvist. After watching him at the WJC, i wouldn't be in much of a hurry to place a bet on him hitting that ceiling. And let's be honest, betting on a player entirely based on their play in that tournament has never made anyone look foolish.....

Obviously there is a lot of room between the floor and ceiling, however, 5'11 defenders who aren't elite PP1 QBs but generate most of their utility there just seem to make more than they should (IMO) and their games are kind of ill-suited to playoff hockey. Like who's more useful to a contending team, GostisBehere or someone like Mayfield/Zadorov/Soucy?

 

[MS]

If ASP hits his ceiling, maybe he's the second coming of cale makar; if he hits his floor instead, maybe he's adam boqvist. After watching him at the WJC, i wouldn't be in much of a hurry to place a bet on him hitting that ceiling. And let's be honest, betting on a player entirely based on their play in that tournament has never made anyone look foolish.....

Obviously there is a lot of room between the floor and ceiling, however, 5'11 defenders who aren't elite PP1 QBs but generate most of their utility there just seem to make more than they should (IMO) and their games are kind of ill-suited to playoff hockey. Like who's more useful to a contending team, GostisBehere or someone like Mayfield/Zadorov/Soucy?

You're comparing a ceiling result for EP2 to a middling result for ASP here.

EP2's floor is ... AHL player. And odds are well over 50% that he's either a 6-7 guy in a Juulsen-type role or just a big AHL callup option. And in those cases he's basically worthless.

 

[Jerry the great]

You're comparing a ceiling result for EP2 to a middling result for ASP here.

EP2's floor is ... AHL player. And odds are well over 50% that he's either a 6-7 guy in a Juulsen-type role or just a big AHL callup option. And in those cases he's basically worthless.

I shouldn't have included Mayfield or Zadorov (though the latter has been mostly deployed as a bottom pair defender over his career). Soucy is a realistic non ceiling comp.

I just think the big, smart, mean defenders with mobility and decent puck skills have a far easier path to the NHL than undersized skill guys who will have a massive target on their back as soon as they hit the pro ice in NA. ASP is a bigger floor risk than EP2 is IMO.

 

[MS]

I shouldn't have included Mayfield or Zadorov (though the latter has been mostly deployed as a bottom pair defender over his career). Soucy is a realistic non ceiling comp.

I just think the big, smart, mean defenders with mobility and decent puck skills have a far easier path to the NHL than undersized skill guys who will have a massive target on their back as soon as they hit the pro ice in NA. ASP is a bigger floor risk than EP2 is IMO.

There are an absolute metric shit ton of big physical defenders who simply did not develop the puck skills to stick in the NHL in any meaningful way and the floor risk of this for EP2 in higher than the risk that ASP bottoms out as a fluffy bottom-pairing skill defender and doesn't end up carrying much value.

And again, I don't love ASP and I don't like Tyson Barries but the equivalent percentage result for ASP being a Tyson Barrie is 'not an NHL player' for EP2.

 

[Jerry the great]

There are an absolute metric shit ton of big physical defenders who simply did not develop the puck skills to stick in the NHL in any meaningful way and the floor risk of this for EP2 in higher than the risk that ASP bottoms out as a fluffy bottom-pairing skill defender and doesn't end up carrying much value.

And again, I don't love ASP and I don't like Tyson Barries but the equivalent percentage result for ASP being a Tyson Barrie is 'not an NHL player' for EP2.

For sure, the number of players to not make the NHL for lack of skill (or lack of will) is....significant.

That said, I think the idea of Tyson Barrie as a floor (or anywhere close to it) for ASP is kind of absurd. Like him or not, his career has been (objectively) a massive success and he's earned almost $50MM playing pro hockey at the highest level. I would say Tyson Barrie is a lot closer to the ceiling for ASP than the floor. How is the floor for ASP any different than the floor was for Victor Soderstom? Another highly touted, highly skilled undersized Swedish defender drafted early in the 1st round who has simply been unable to make the jump in North America, despite having an enviable skillset.

 

[credulous]

For sure, the number of players to not make the NHL for lack of skill (or lack of will) is....significant.

That said, I think the idea of Tyson Barrie as a floor (or anywhere close to it) for ASP is kind of absurd. Like him or not, his career has been (objectively) a massive success and he's earned almost $50MM playing pro hockey at the highest level. I would say Tyson Barrie is a lot closer to the ceiling for ASP than the floor. How is the floor for ASP any different than the floor was for Victor Soderstom? Another highly touted, highly skilled undersized Swedish defender drafted early in the 1st round who has simply been unable to make the jump in North America, despite having an enviable skillset.

it's not about whether tyson barrie as a floor is accurate it's that every prospect has a range of outcomes and asp's are just better than ep2's. even if ep2 is like 10% to be a 3-4 defender, 50% to be a 6-7 dman and 40% to never make a mark in the nhl asp is only 10% to be like josh morrissey or devon toews and 90% to completely bust asp is still the better prospect because his upside is mega valuable whereas ep2 is a guy you can probably replace pretty easily if you lose him

 

[Nick Lang]

Sorry, just to confirm....you're saying that ASP is a far better prospect than EP2?

Yes. That's pretty well generally accepted isn't it?

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Yes. That's pretty well generally accepted isn't it?

It's just the people who think ASP is a better prospect than Willander who are wrong.

 

[Nick Lang]

It's just the people who think ASP is a better prospect than Willander who are wrong.

Haha, yeah I sure hope we have the better one. I soured on ASP before the draft last year but he had a hell of a d+1 year by most of the accounts I heard. They seem close right now. I had to take a glance (from hockey writers top 100):

 

[VanJack]

Upside for Sanin Pellikka is Gustav Forsling; downside is Adam Bovquist. People underestimate how hard it is to play in the NHL as a somewhat undersized d-man. You've got to be an exceptional talented with high-end skating ability to pull it off. And those kind of guys usually go top-10 in the draft, not in back half of the first round.

He could make it big with the Wings. But give me 'size' most of the time. So at this point, D-Petey at 6'4" and 215; and Wilander at 6'2" and 190; represent better bets imo.