Teams with top 5 prospect pools that ended up with nothing to show for it

[Son of Nogatco]

What are some historical examples of teams that were considered to have loaded prospect pools at the time, but ended up with little to nothing to show for it?

*Edit: should clarify that I’m looking for prospect pools that mostly turned out to be busts, not so much clubs that drafted solid players who didn’t then achieve team success

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Flyers were very promising, especially on the backend and in goal in the late 2010’s

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I feel like five or six years ago the Habs' prospect pool was getting rave reviews.

Obviously their current crop of guys starting with Caufield have done well. But I remember when certain people thought Kotkaniemi, Mete, Poehling, Juulsen, etc. were gonna be studs.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I remember when Pittsburgh had a D prospect pool with Brian Dumoulin, Derrick Pouliot, Olli Matta, Scott Harrington, Joe Morrow, and Simon Despres and was going to be the greatest young D-core in the league.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

After the 2012 draft, I think Minnesota had:

Granlund, Coyle, Neiderreiter, Brodin, Dumba, Zucker, Haula, Kuemper and even Johan Larsson was fairly promising at that time after his 2011-12 season in Sweden.

Playoffs every year for the next five, but nothing really more than that.

Granlund --> Fiala --> Faber + Ohgren
Coyle --> Donato --> 3rd round pick --> used to move up and take Wallstedt
Neiderreiter --> Rask --> Future Considerations
Brodin still here
Dumba --> left as UFA
Zucker --> Galchenyuk + 1st + Addison --> Lambos + Raska + 2026 5th
Haula --> gave to Vegas in expansion draft, along with Tuch, to keep all of the guys above
Kuemper --> left as UFA I think
Larsson --> traded in a package for Jason Pominville

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I feel like we're living this with Buffalo over the last 3-5 years lol.

Though to be fair, some of their prospects have panned out and just ended up on other teams.

 

[GunnarStahl]

How has LA not been named yet...

 

[Brodeur]

Maybe doesn't exactly fit, but I was instantly reminded of THN's 2001 Future Watch which had Detroit as a bottom five system with guys like Kronwall, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk. And then unfortunately since Edmonton was next alphabetically, the same page had them with a higher ranked pipeline led by Jani Rita and Alexei Semenov.

Same issue ranked Colorado #1 mostly buoyed by having Alex Tanguay and Martin Skoula already in the NHL lineup. But their top 5 prospects were Vaclav Nedorost, Jordan Krestanovich, Rick Berry, Alexander Riazantsev, and Mikhail Kuleshov.

Probably a few teams in the late 90s / early 00s who didn't get much as the league had some average / below average drafts in a row.

 

[koivalev]

I feel like five or six years ago the Habs' prospect pool was getting rave reviews.

Obviously their current crop of guys starting with Caufield have done well. But I remember when certain people thought Kotkaniemi, Mete, Poehling, Juulsen, etc. were gonna be studs.

Mete was great those first few years but I think lack of point production had him kicked to the curb faster than he maybe should have been. Montreal wasn't really a good team by any means (except for a bit of a fluke of a cup final run they missed/would have missed the playoffs the other 3 years), yet outscored opponents 125-95 at 5 on 5 when he was out there (56.82 GF%).

Wasn't just a fluke either, their xGF% with him out there was 54.66%.

And before anyone (inevitably) brings up the Weber effect, those numbers actually hold steady with or without Weber on the ice with him.

 

[Kegs]

Highly ranked prospect pools are over rated. Most prospects don’t move the needle or make the nhl.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Mete was great those first few years but I think lack of point production had him kicked to the curb faster than he maybe should have been. Montreal wasn't really a good team by any means (except for a bit of a fluke of a cup final run they missed/would have missed the playoffs the other 3 years), yet outscored opponents 125-95 at 5 on 5 when he was out there (56.82 GF%).

Wasn't just a fluke either, their xGF% with him out there was 54.66%.

And before anyone (inevitably) brings up the Weber effect, those numbers actually hold steady with or without Weber on the ice with him.

Hey buddy, don't point out that Montreal's SCF run is heavily asterisked... That will cause some rage.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Highly ranked prospect pools are over rated. Most prospects don’t move the needle or make the nhl.

I mean yeah... Even the top ranked teams aren't gonna have a lot of the guys outside their Top 5 make it. But when you've got a loaded Top 5 it does provide some guidance as to who will be good in the near future.

 

[wej20]

I remember when Pittsburgh had a D prospect pool with Brian Dumoulin, Derrick Pouliot, Olli Matta, Scott Harrington, Joe Morrow, and Simon Despres and was going to be the greatest young D-core in the league.

Yep, Dumoulin hit his ceiling as a great defensive dman capable of playing with you #1 offensive dman. Maatta's had a good career but could have been better if not for injruy. Despres was putting things together when a concussion ruined his career. Pouliot, Morrow and Harrington all busts. 2 hits out of 6, not the best strike rate especially given where they were picked.

Dumoulin and Maatta did give us these two beauties though.

 

[koivalev]

Yep, Dumoulin hit his ceiling as a great defensive dman capable of playing with you #1 offensive dman. Maatta's had a good career but could have been better if not for injruy. Despres was putting things together when a concussion ruined his career. Pouliot, Morrow and Harrington all busts. 2 hits out of 6, not the best strike rate especially given where they were picked.

Pouliot had an all-time GWG run though

 

[majormajor]

How has LA not been named yet...

When your prospect pool produces Byfield, Clarke, Vilardi, Faber, Anderson, Spence, and Laferriere, that is a massive massive success.

People need to recalibrate what it means to have a successful prospect pool. It does not mean world domination. The league is largely led by older players, young players aren't as important as most on HF seem to think.

View attachment 1048468

Maybe doesn't exactly fit, but I was instantly reminded of THN's 2001 Future Watch which had Detroit as a bottom five system with guys like Kronwall, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk. And then unfortunately since Edmonton was next alphabetically, the same page had them with a higher ranked pipeline led by Jani Rita and Alexei Semenov.

That's an incredible contrast, thank you. I want to keep this image forever.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

When your prospect pool produces Byfield, Clarke, Vilardi, Faber, Anderson, Spence, and Laferriere, that is a massive massive success.

People need to recalibrate what it means to have a successful prospect pool. It does not mean world domination. The league is largely led by older players, young players aren't as important as most on HF seem to think.

I mean, going by the title "That ended up with nothing to show for it", it's kinda right.

Byfield has underwhelmed thusfar, even though I'm pretty sure there was a short window of time where some ranked him the top prospect outside the NHL. (One of the top, certainly) Clarke walks the line of "About what we expected" and "Underwhelming" depending on whose expectations you go by. I remember Scott Wheeler thought for sure he was gonna be better than Simon Edvinsson... Kinda doesn't look that way so far.

Then you've got Vilardi traded for PLD, and Faber traded for Fiala. Those are two trades that LA absolutely did not come out on the better end of. So while they were great prospects, they're not in LA and LA ended up on the bad end of their respective trades. Which kinda still fits "Ended up with nothing to show for it".

 

[Son of Nogatco]

Haula --> gave to Vegas in expansion draft, along with Tuch, to keep all of the guys above

Wow forgot about that. McPhee just absolutely pantsed so many franchises in that expansion draft. A masterclass.

 

[majormajor]

I mean, going by the title "That ended up with nothing to show for it", it's kinda right.

Byfield has underwhelmed thusfar, even though I'm pretty sure there was a short window of time where some ranked him the top prospect outside the NHL. (One of the top, certainly) Clarke walks the line of "About what we expected" and "Underwhelming" depending on whose expectations you go by. I remember Scott Wheeler thought for sure he was gonna be better than Simon Edvinsson... Kinda doesn't look that way so far.

Then you've got Vilardi traded for PLD, and Faber traded for Fiala. Those are two trades that LA absolutely did not come out on the better end of. So while they were great prospects, they're not in LA and LA ended up on the bad end of their respective trades. Which kinda still fits "Ended up with nothing to show for it".

When your pool produces a large portion of the best U23 players in the league, that's a massive success from a scouting perspective. Yeah they haven't led to any amazing postseason success, but no team's prospects are doing that. Maybe when they're 25+ years old.

I get that trading away two of your best prospects diminishes that greatly.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Wow forgot about that. McPhee just absolutely pantsed so many franchises in that expansion draft. A masterclass.

Was really just kind of bad timing. They were all 22-24, had their best or really promising seasons in 2016-17.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

When your pool produces a large portion of the best U23 players in the league, that's a massive success from a scouting perspective. Yeah they haven't led to any amazing postseason success, but no team's prospects are doing that. Maybe when they're 25+ years old.

I get that trading away two of your best prospects diminishes that greatly.

Uhh.... Ummm... What?

LAK has produced a "Large portion" of the best U23 players in the league? What are we defining as "Large Portion"? Which one of Byfield/Faber/Clarke is a Top 10 U23 player?

 

[majormajor]

Uhh.... Ummm... What?

LAK has produced a "Large portion" of the best U23 players in the league? What are we defining as "Large Portion"? Which one of Byfield/Faber/Clarke is a Top 10 U23 player?

Considering that having 1/32 of the best U23 players would be average, a large portion would be some number much bigger than that.

Just a quick look - the 16th best scorer from the 2020 draft would have about 40 pts last year. That's a middle of the road outcome. The Kings have that in Laferriere, and a better one in Byfield, and though they lost the Faber trade (they drafted Faber that year), they got a 60-80 pt winger in Fiala who just had 7 pts in 6 playoff games. Most clubs would be thrilled if they drafted a Fiala in that draft, instead Kings fans got him and just moan about it. Crying and moaning endlessly. Whiney baby syndrome on an epic level. That's just one year. They got more than, sometimes far more, than 1/32 fo the draft talent for several drafts in the recent rebuild.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Considering that having 1/32 of the best U23 players would be average, a large portion would be some number much bigger than that.

Just a quick look - the 16th best scorer from the 2020 draft would have about 40 pts last year. That's a middle of the road outcome. The Kings have that in Laferriere, and a better one in Byfield, and though they lost the Faber trade (they drafted Faber that year), they got a 60-80 pt winger in Fiala who just had 7 pts in 6 playoff games. Most clubs would be thrilled if they drafted a Fiala in that draft, instead Kings fans got him and just moan about it. Crying and moaning endlessly. Whiney baby syndrome on an epic level. That's just one year. They got more than, sometimes far more, than 1/32 fo the draft talent for several drafts in the recent rebuild.

I guess I don't get how we're including Kevin Fiala in a discussion about the best U23 players in the league...

Laferriere is no doubt a good pick. Yes. He was 15th in scoring among 2020 draftees. That's great. 15th. From one draft. Of 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. We really dropping his name among the "Best U23 players"?

Byfield/Faber/Clarke/Laferriere would be the group, yes? Considering the phrasing was that they make up a "Large portion of the best U23 players in the league", can we agree that this sounds ridiculous when you have individual groups that include:

Anaheim - Carlsson/Mintyukov/McTavish/Zellweger
Buffalo - Power/Peterka/Quinn
Columbus - Fantilli/Johnson/Sillinger/Mateychuk/Chinakov
Detroit - Raymond/Edvinsson/Kasper
Montreal - Demidov/Hutson/Guhle/Slafkovsky/Dobes
Ottawa - Stutzle/Sanderson/Greig
Philly - Michkov/Gauthier/Foerster
San Jose - Celebrini/Smith/Eklund
Utah - Cooley/Guenther/Moser

Outside maybe Buffalo and Utah, every team in that group has a better player (some two) than any of Byfield/Faber/Clarke/Laferriere. That's just out of nine teams. Then add in the rest of the league's U23. I guess I'm just not getting how LAK produces a "Large portion of the best U23 players in the league".

They're about average. Maybe a little above it.

 

[viceroy]

Hey buddy, don't point out that Montreal's SCF run is heavily asterisked... That will cause some rage.

Rage? You're the one that seems to be coping hermano.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Probably most of em if we're looking in aggregate. Lot of fans seem to have this idea that you just suck for 5 years, draft yourself a new young cost controlled core and then bang presto SC contender. This myth of a contention cycle needs to die.

Just not how it works. Good drafted prospects are only one piece of a much larger puzzle. Most prospect pool rankings still skew heavily on the top 3-4 names and totally disregard the rest. Star players are great but the chances any pool has more than 2 that'll actually pan out are slim. Having quality drafted depth is important too, it means you don't have to give out these bloated UFA contracts to bit players that may or may not be good fits or as committed as they need to be.


On topic: Detroit I know hasn't had much luck in the lottery but I've been unimpressed with their recent rated crop. Not enough heart. Devils as well but for other reasons.

 

[Kraken Jokes]