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WC: Team Latvia Roster

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ozo said:
Drop the puck already!!! :D
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Just to hype us up even more.
A somewhat overlooked thing is the breakout of Dzierkals and Bukarts Jr. during the end of this season.

Dzierkals finished at a respectable 0.50 PPG pace the last few months in KHL, while Rihards Bukarts recorded 15 points in his final 15 games in DEL. They actually showed they can deliver for the first time in their pro hockey careers and the stat sheet at eliteprospects or whatever really doesn't tell that. They will be career major pro players.

And these are our bottom 6 guys.
 
Namejs said:
Dzierkals finished at a respectable 0.50 PPG pace the last few months in KHL, while Rihards Bukarts recorded 15 points in his final 15 games in DEL. They actually showed they can deliver for the first time in their pro hockey careers and the stat sheet at eliteprospects or whatever really doesn't tell that. They will be career major pro players
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What about "this thing called statistical variance" and "cognitive bias" which you seem to apply ever so often for players from other countries?
 
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SoundAndFury said:
What about "this thing called statistical variance" and "cognitive bias" which you seem to apply ever so often for players from other countries?
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Hype
Y
P
E

But it's always good when someone keeps you in check with reality.

As for Dzierkals, there were some pretty bad rumours surrounding him and his conduct a couple of years ago. He was considered one of the most skilled Latvian prospects in a couple of decades. He seemed a bit lost in North America. It seemed like a bit of a pointless grind with no fruit to bear. When he switched to the KHL he was barely producing anything. Most people thought of him as another CHL burnout (we've had plenty of those before him, which is why I'm highly skeptical about the Belarusian CHL prospects and their future switch to pro hockey or lack thereof).

So his gradual increase in production sort of made everyone make a massive sigh of relief. His work ethic is no longer in question and since he actually does have one of the best hands in Latvian hockey, I really don't consider his 0.50 PPG pace a statistical anomaly. He's the real deal. With a little more bulk and more top 6 minutes he can easily reach the production level of Daugavins (0.60 PPG) in a year or two.

As for Rihards Bukarts, it was pretty much the same story for him. A young, highly talented CHL graduate with high early expectations, but no NHL success and a pointless overage year in North American junior hockey, he struggled to make a successful switch to pro hockey back in Europe. He barely got any top line minutes, but broke out at the tail end of the season and received PP time, etc., and delivered.

So, yeah, their increase in production makes perfect sense.
 
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Namejs said:
Hype
Y
P
E

But it's always good when someone keeps you in check with reality.

As for Dzierkals, there were some pretty bad rumours surrounding him and his conduct a couple of years ago. He was considered one of the most skilled Latvian prospects in a couple of decades. He seemed a bit lost in North America. It seemed like a bit of a pointless grind with no fruit to bear. When he switched to the KHL he was barely producing anything. Most people thought of him as another CHL burnout (we've had plenty of those before him, which is why I'm highly skeptical about the Belarusian CHL prospects and their future switch to pro hockey or lack thereof).

So his gradual increase in production sort of made everyone make a massive sigh of relief. His work ethic is no longer in question and since he actually does have one of the best hands in Latvian hockey, I really don't consider his 0.50 PPG pace a statistical anomaly. He's the real deal. With a little more bulk and more top 6 minutes he can easily reach the production level of Daugavins (0.60 PPG) in a year or two.

As for Rihards Bukarts, it was pretty much the same story for him. A young, highly talented CHL graduate with high early expectations, but no NHL success and a pointless overage year in North American junior hockey, he struggled to make a successful switch to pro hockey back in Europe. He barely got any top line minutes, but broke out at the tail end of the season and received PP time, etc., and delivered.

So, yeah, their increase in production makes perfect sense.
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I don't generally disagree with your sentiment, but a few ways one might push back are as follows.

I believe with Dzierkals we're talking about the 8 points in the last 16 games, which is an improvement from 5 in 26, but the numbers are still so small that it might be difficult to speak with a lot of confidence. He also saw a corresponding increase in playing time when he made his run, which could be caused by an increase in performance but the causal connection does not necessarily run that way. At the same age Artur Gavrus scored 10 points in a sample of 19 games, and he didn't turn out to be as good as some might have hoped.

I'm also not inclined to be too confident about any of the Schwenninger team because they were the worst team in the league by a good margin. It's unlikely that players on that team, like say Anthony Rech, would play nearly as prominent a role in other teams. The fact that it took Bukarts such a long time to move up internally in such a poor quality team isn't necessarily encouraging.

However, I don't want to come across as too skeptical. They're legitimate senior hockey players. Those are just some ways someone might qualify their successes.
 
Regarding Dzierkals, sure he has more potential than 4th liner on Dinamo but at the same time, his skating isn't great, his shot is nothing to write home about and his playmaking ability is mediocre. Players do improve but I don't see him reaching Daugavins level. On Dinamo, sure, Redlihs and Sprukts managed to get even better numbers than that but Daugavins was a go-to guy on some very good teams and Dzierkals has long, long, long way ahead of him to ever reach that. Again, personally, I don't see it.

Regarding Bukars, the same thing happened to him at the end of last season. Really good PO on a very good team. This year, he signed with a terrible team to get the minutes and started the season as an absolute dud. So, since you don't believe in hot and cold the writing in on the wall - being an offense-first guy he didn't cut it in Extraliga, didn't cut it in KHL and was at 0,5 PPG in DEL for 1,5 years now. Which all makes sense. I'd say that's what he is going forward - 2nd line forward on a terrible DEL team, pretty solid 2nd line forward in EBEL or a star player in France and such.

So their increased production is exactly the cognitive bias you talk about. Bukarts production on a season increased by 0,02 PPG compared to last years. Dare I say, that's no real improvement. Regarding Dzierkals, sure, it makes perfect sense 21 y.o. guy adapts to pro hockey and his production is going to increase. But I don't think it's fair to put his potential into Daugavins/Indrasis/Darzins tier.
 
kabidjan18 said:
I'm also not inclined to be too confident about any of the Schwenninger team because they were the worst team in the league by a good margin. It's unlikely that players on that team, like say Anthony Rech, would play nearly as prominent a role in other teams. The fact that it took Bukarts such a long time to move up internally in such a poor quality team isn't necessarily encouraging.
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To me, Bukarts seems to be a team player in the sense, that he can do little on his own but is excellent offensive support. Zlin and Riga were 2 very offensively challenged teams at the time he played for them and he couldn't carry the load. He moved to Berlin and was a very useful part on a team which was really no worse than the previous two and facing competition which wasn't much weaker that ones he faced before. But they were good, they were structured and he managed to fit right in and deliver even in PO.

This year, the same thing, Schwenninger started their season terribly and he just drowned with them. Once the things picked up and the team started doing better (they have won 8 out of their last 17 games) he performed well enough as well.

Like I said, on a successful, well-coached EBEL team with decent linemates I can see him scoring 40 points. Even more if the things go really well. But if you throw him in over his head he won't do anything for you.
 
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SoundAndFury said:
Regarding Dzierkals, sure he has more potential than 4th liner on Dinamo but at the same time, his skating isn't great, his shot is nothing to write home about and his playmaking ability is mediocre. Players do improve but I don't see him reaching Daugavins level. On Dinamo, sure, Redlihs and Sprukts managed to get even better numbers than that but Daugavins was a go-to guy on some very good teams and Dzierkals has long, long, long way ahead of him to ever reach that. Again, personally, I don't see it.

Regarding Bukars, the same thing happened to him at the end of last season. Really good PO on a very good team. This year, he signed with a terrible team to get the minutes and started the season as an absolute dud. So, since you don't believe in hot and cold the writing in on the wall - being an offense-first guy he didn't cut it in Extraliga, didn't cut it in KHL and was at 0,5 PPG in DEL for 1,5 years now. Which all makes sense. I'd say that's what he is going forward - 2nd line forward on a terrible DEL team, pretty solid 2nd line forward in EBEL or a star player in France and such.

So their increased production is exactly the cognitive bias you talk about. Bukarts production on a season increased by 0,02 PPG compared to last years. Dare I say, that's no real improvement. Regarding Dzierkals, sure, it makes perfect sense 21 y.o. guy adapts to pro hockey and his production is going to increase. But I don't think it's fair to put his potential into Daugavins/Indrasis/Darzins tier.
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We will see about Bukarts. I mostly agree regarding his assessment, but with a major caveat - his production changed along with usage. He switched teams and ended up being used as a bottom 6 guy and had to crawl up the ranks. At which he eventually succeeded during the end of the season, because that's how time works.

As for Dzierkals and Darzins/Daugavins/Indrasis tier, I have always said that Latvians are usually late bloomers. We usually peak at mid 20s, not early 20s. Darzins recorded 16 points in over 50 games in the KHL as a 23/24 year old. He was not better than Dzierkals at his age.

Daugavins was also terrible in his first year in AHL at Dzierkals age. Dzierkals did not get the benefit of the doubt, because the Leafs were ridiculously stacked at that point. So he got sent to ECHL and he sort of got lost there.

Next season will show.

IMO, Dzierkals will be a legit top 6 player for our national team, while Bukarts Jr. could reach the caliber of M. Redlihs or someone like Kenins. A 2nd/3rd line winger.

In any case, we haven't really ever had 4th liners with that sort of skill and potential, which is my bottom line here. With our best possible roster, Bukarts would be riding the bench and Dzierkals would be a 4th-liner.
 
Well, f***

Daugavins injury is more serious than thought previously and he won't make the WC.

That kind of ruins the whole party. Huge loss.

Dzierkals will have to fill Daugavins shoes right now. It's funny we had this discussion just now.

I guess it's Dzierkals chance to show himself in the top 6.

3rd line now consists of the Bukarts duo and Blueger. Still good there.

But the 4th line sucks ass now tho :D
 
No official announcement has been made by LHF regarding Daugavins. More medical examinations will be made later today. Most likely he is out but we can still hope for the best.
 
LKI said:
No official announcement has been made by LHF regarding Daugavins. More medical examinations will be made later today. Most likely he is out but we can still hope for the best.
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It's confirmed now, he's got a ligament tear in his ankle and damage to his bone membrane. I have that exact injury right now, hurts like a bitch and you can't really walk and anything tight-fitting pushes directly into the bone.

No way he's going to join the team later either.
 
Khokhlach86 said:
PP1
Balinskis-Kenins-Indrasis-Blugers-Rih.Bukarts

PP2
Freibergs-Rob.Bukarts-Darzins-Abols-Balcers
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Yeah, I don't think the first PP unit will contain Kenins and Rihards Bukarts, these are random units they might be trying out right now.

It's going to be Darzins-Blueger-Indrasis or Balcers-Darzins-Indrasis with 4 forwards.
 
king89 said:
Will Elvis be the starter after the Austria game?
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He will most likely start against Austria, our coaches are playing chess I think.

Although Blueger might miss the opening game, which means we might not have an easy game at all vs. Austria.
 
Yeah, since I made these all-enthusiastic posts, we have missed two of our leading forwards due to injuries as well as our 4C and everything has gone to shit. Definitely no Daugavins this year and Blueger's not ready to return yet either.

And Elvis hasn't made the official lineup yet for some unknown reason. I mean what the f***.

Our lines look butchered if I'm being honest. We have a single legit C right now. One. Uno. En. Viens.

I must've jinxed everything :D

This is a really good chance for Austria to bite us in the neck and I'm completely serious.

I've never seen such random lines. Darzins or Indrasis will center the 3rd line vs. Ōsterreich. And they actually recalled Bicevskis from his holidays, who was cut from the lineup like 2 weeks ago.
 
The official lineup doesn't mean much. You can put someone on there just hours before a game. So Elvis not yet there doesn't mean much.

But for a goalkeeper jet lag is probably much more of an issue than for a skater.
 
Namejs said:
He will most likely start against Austria, our coaches are playing chess I think.
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Considering Elvis hasn't played in a while, I would agree he should start vs AUT and not SUI to get back in the game. SUI goes to Gudlevskis and then they can choose between them from that point on.
 
jonas2244 said:
The official lineup doesn't mean much. You can put someone on there just hours before a game. So Elvis not yet there doesn't mean much.

But for a goalkeeper jet lag is probably much more of an issue than for a skater.
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Well, there is no reason not to sign him up. Unless there is some issue with insurance or injuries or some other reason. I'm not talking about the lineip vs. Austria, but the official roster.
 
GX said:
Considering Elvis hasn't played in a while, I would agree he should start vs AUT and not SUI to get back in the game. SUI goes to Gudlevskis and then they can choose between them from that point on.
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Absolutely not. If he's not injured, he should start both games. It's not even a question.

Gudlevskis is a mediocre goalie. There is no way in hell he should be the goalie in a must win game. He can play vs. Italy or Russia.
 
OK, so Merzlikins has joined the camp today in Slovakia. That makes me less concerned.

But the LHF comms department sucks at their job anyway. No explanation about any of their roster decisions.
 
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